October 2024

The Slice

A Monthly Market Update & Investment News Roundup

Cutting through the noise...so you don't have to.

Good morning,

Few would have guessed that the Fed's decision to cut interest rates by a half of a percentage point last month would lead to a rally in Chinese stocks. But that's exactly what's happening.

Chinese equities, considered by many investors to be the butt of jokes over the last three years, just posted a gain of 17% for the month of September - the biggest monthly gain for the Shanghai Composite in almost 10 years. Billionaire hedge fund manager David Tepper tells CNBC there's a lot more room to run.  

On the election front, Strategas' Dan Clifton believes this November could mark the closest election of our lifetimes. 34 days out from election day, Harris has built momentum following last month's debate, but applying the polling error seen in 2020 would put Trump ahead in each of the seven swing states.

Tonight, the vice presidential debate airs on on CBS at 9pm EST and will be moderated by Norah O'Donnell and Margaret Brennan.

Here's what you need to know.

Markets

News & Notes

• The Fed Cut Rates...Now What? Tom Lee explains that since 1971, the market has never been lower in the twelve months following a rate cut - so long as the economy is not in a recession - and the median gain is 15.8% over that period. (The Compound)

• AI: Goldman Sachs' Head of Stock Research Jim Covello warns that AI's juice may not be worth the squeeze. Using the bank's own efforts to leverage the technology, he reviewed a service that used AI to automatically update analysts spreadsheets with companies' financial results: "it saved 20 minutes of time per company but cost six times as much money." (NYT)

• Late Payments On The Rise: Lenders are sounding the alarm about lower-income borrowers who are struggling to make payments on their credit cards and auto loans. Over 9% of credit card balances turned delinquent over the last year, the highest rate in a decade. (WSJ)

• Work From Home: Amazon released a memo last month calling its white collar workforce back to the office full time. A separate KPMG survey found that 80% of U.S. CEO's expected corporate employees to be back in the office full time within three years, a 46% increase since April. (WSJ)

• Monopoly Money: Federal Trade Commission Chair Lena Khan says much of the blame for high inflation is widespread corporate consolidation. With inflation being a top issue for voters next month, she has fans on both side of the aisle. (60 Minutes)

• Estate Planning: Wealthy Americans are calling attorneys to protect their fortunes from the possibility of higher estate taxes. (WSJ)

• Election: According to current betting odds at Polymarket, the two most likely scenarios for the November election are a Republican Sweep or a Harris Presidency/Democratic House/GOP Senate. Strategas Research has provided the below playbook for what happens to taxes in each scenario. (Strategas)

• Travel & Spend:
  36 Hours: Stowe, Vermont (NYT)
  36 Hours: Malmo, Sweden (NYT)
  36 Hours: Lima, Peru (NYT)
  36 Hours: Door County, Wisconsin (NYT)
  
  Joanna Stern's iPhone 16 Review (WSJ)
  The New Delta One Lounge (WSJ)

(Pie)Chart of the Month

More Northeasterners are Heading South for College 

Students say they are searching for the fun and school spirit emanating from the South on their social-media feeds. Their parents cite lower tuition and less debt, and warmer weather. College counselors also say many teens are eager to trade the political polarization ripping apart campuses in New England and New York for the sense of community epitomized by the South’s football Saturdays.  - Douglas Belkin and Andrea Fuller (WSJ)

Firm News

Medicare Annual Election Period

Medicare's Annual Election & Enrollment Period begins on October 15th and ends on December 7th.

Changes to Medicare Part D (stemming from the Inflation Reduction Act) are set to take effect January 1st, including a $2,000 annual cap on out of pocket expenses as well as an option to smooth your out-of-pocket expenses across the year. Given these changes, Medicare beneficiaries may want to review their Part D drug plan for next year. To assist you, PieCapital has partnered with Move Health to help clients navigate this change.

Email will@piecapital.com to setup a comprehensive overview of your options for next year.

Estate Planning: Get Organized

If you're feeling disorganized about your own affairs, we've got you covered. This letter of instructions will guide you through how to make things clean and easy for your family.

Tax Deadline: October 15

The extended filing deadline for individual tax returns for 2023 is October 15. If you're not confident that you're taking advantage of all available deductions and credits, PieCapital can review your return using Holistiplan and provide proactive guidance for next year's return.

Email will@piecapital.com to setup a secure upload link for your return.

Smith (Family) Mountain Lake

The Revels family visited Smith Mountain Lake with friends and were treated to a beautiful weekend on the water. We discovered Jack was our adrenaline junkie on the tube.

Field Trip

The Red Bulls watched the North Carolina FC take on the Oakland Roots last month. The team got to walk out with the players and scrimmage between halves. And yes, we made it on the jumbotron. Go Red Bulls!