YOUR QUIVER | December 23, 2022

Today's Rundown

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

Overnight + Friday Action

Europe’s Stoxx 600 is up so far (+0.17%), hoping to close out a first up week in three. As of writing, the MSCI World hadn’t moved much, Asia Pac was down around -1%, and EM was down around -1%. Investors are digesting the PCE deflator, an inflation data point tracked by the Fed, which, expectedly, came in at 5.5% (below). Personal spending, adjusted for changes in prices, stalled in November, printing at the weakest since July and below forecast. Treasury yields look to be going up again. Japan’s benchmark 10-yr yield moved down slightly to 0.37%, below the new 0.50% limit. The USD is down versus other currencies and may hit a weekly decline after rising the past 2 weeks. Oil has been up a lot this week because of Russian curtailing threats. Equity funds had outflows of almost $42 billion this week after all the central banks flew like hawks and investors continued their tax loss selling and repositioning.

Neighborhood Watch

India’s health minister is urging people to vaccinate and wear masks, cautioning them about new variants that could emerge from neighbor China as a major Covid wave transitions from cities to more rural areas. China’s CDC chief epidemiologist is warning that China currently is in wave one of three infection waves expected this winter. The gov said that around 37mm people may have been infected with Covid in a single day this week, and potentially 248mm, or 18% of its people, probably got Covid in the first 20 days of Dec.

Ex-Employee Protection Program

Liss-Riordan, who brought 4 proposed class action suits against Twitter by former employees, filed demands for arbitration against Twitter from 100 former employees (because of their employment agreements). She said she is just getting started. Ironically, Twitter, which recently laid off most of its communications department, did not respond to reporters’ request for comment.

Meta Settlement

That’s what Meta has to pay ($725mm) to settle a class action lawsuit that claimed it gave user data to 3rd parties without consent, on the heels of the Cambridge Analytics scandal. That seems so long ago to many of us, but the settlement (largest recovery ever in a data privacy class action and the most the co ever paid to settle one) makes it a fresh wound for Meta.

Where's the Futon?

SBF is going to be released on $250mm bail (largest ever pretrial bond) and will live with his parents while he awaits trial for 8 federal charges.

Them Fightin' Words

Russia says that US’ “quite old” Patriot missiles won’t be a problem. But then Putin said that Russia wants to end the war, which most likely will occur with a diplomatic solution. You can just see our military painting “Diplomatic Solution” on those missiles today. Russia also said they may cut oil output by 5-7% (700k barrels) in early 2023, responding to price caps by stopping sales to countries executing them.

1 Out of 5 Stars

Google told employees that more will be at risk for low performance ratings next year after revamping its performance system, and it will be harder to achieve high marks. “It’s not the economy, it’s you."

10 and 2

Tesla is under investigation by NHTSA for 2 more crashes that could have occurred with Autopilot or Full Self-Driving. CNBC reports that NHTSA is reviewing at least 41 such crashes involving Tesla vehicles. Keep your eyes on the road and hands on 10 and 2, Tesla drivers.

Pony Ride

Two major Asian gaming companies are making waves this week in a foreboding look for 2023’s $200bn gaming industry. Tencent co-founder Pony Ma told his staff that they lacked urgency. Sea founder Forrest Li cautioned that economic challenges in 2023 are worsening, and then he cut bonuses and froze salaries. Best Ma quote: “You can’t even survive as a business, yet you’re chilling on the weekends, playing ball."

Flock of the Superyachts

Apparently, billionaires all over the world are descending upon the Caribbean for Christmas and New Year parties (where was my invite), as the yacht count in the region has more than doubled from last month. While it may be cold in around the world, and with parts of the US just hit with a winter storm, yacht season in the Caribbean is in full bloom, as more than 200 luxury vessels have clustered among the islands (compared to 81 in November).