Lower Colorado River Authority: Drought Update

With the lower Colorado River basin in the early stages of drought, LCRA is offering two new ways for customers and the public to stay up to date on current conditions and forecasts.

LCRA has created a Web page to provide easy access to information and an e-newsletter to provide the latest drought news. The Web page includes many helpful drought and weather-related links, as well as current lake levels and forecasts for lakes Travis and Buchanan, the region's water supply reservoirs. It can be viewed at www.lcra.org/droughtupdate.

You are receiving the newsletter because, in the past, you have indicated that you are interested in news about the basin's water supply.

"Drought and its impact on the Highland Lakes are important issues for everyone in the region, and LCRA wants to make sure that customers and the public alike have access to timely and accurate information," LCRA General Manager Tom Mason said. "This region is prone to periods of dry weather interspersed with rainy periods. The Highland Lakes are a valuable resource that store water for use during dry periods, such as now."

La Niña expected to make for a hot, dry summer

Currently, because of the La Niña weather pattern, it has been very dry for several months, and that is expected to continue, according to LCRA Chief Meteorologist Bob Rose. We saw these same dry conditions back in 2009. Fortunately, as we enter the hottest months of the year, there is more water in the lakes than there was in the beginning of the summer of 2009.

In terms of intensity, the current dry period is roughly equivalent to the driest periods of 2008-2009. With the exception of January, rainfall has been below normal every month since September. For example, only about 5 inches of rain has fallen in Austin since Oct. 1. This is 10 inches below the normal rainfall for that period of time. The rainfall deficit has been similar throughout the basin and is more than 12 inches across much of Colorado and Wharton counties.

The latest long-range weather outlook calls for below-normal rainfall during April, May and June. These are typically the wettest months of the year and are therefore an important bellwether for expected lake levels in lakes Travis and Buchanan over the summer.

"La Niña is weakening and may dissipate by June, but the jet stream that would carry moister Pacific air to Texas remains north of our region," Rose said. "As a result, below-normal rainfall is forecast across our region at least through June. This could be setting our region up for a hot and mostly dry summer."

Because of the dry conditions, inflows to lakes Travis and Buchanan have been below normal for months. Inflows are the water that flows to the lakes from the basin's river, creeks and streams. When they are low, lake levels can fall and the amount of water stored in the lakes can decrease. Since October 2010, inflows to the Highland Lakes have averaged less than 20 percent of normal. This is similar to the worst months of 2008-2009.

As of April 1, the amount of water stored in the two lakes was slightly more than 1.5 million acre-feet, or about 75 percent of capacity. A year ago, combined storage was about 88 percent of capacity.

It’s difficult to predict when a drought will end, but they can last for several years in Texas and this may be only the beginning of an extended dry period. In many ways, the current drought is an extension of the drought that gripped the region in 2008 and 2009. LCRA will manage the lakes to maximize the basin’s water supply during drought, and, as always, wants to encourage everyone to use water wisely.

"During a drought, LCRA follows measures prescribed in our state-approved Water Management Plan to maximize available water," said Suzanne Zarling, LCRA Executive Manager of Water Services. "I encourage all water users to do their part by following local outdoor watering schedules and taking actions to eliminate water waste."