August 2024

The Slice

A Monthly Market Update & Investment News Roundup

Cutting through the noise...so you don't have to.

Good morning,

A lot can happen in a month. What looked like a runaway Trump victory in early July now has us back to pre-debate election odds with a new presumptive Democratic nominee.

Alphabet, Amazon, Microsoft, Meta and Apple are spending the equivalent of a McDonald's ($200B) annually on AI-related capital expenditures. But investors are beginning to question the ROI on that investment as the tech heavy Nasdaq retreated 10% off its high.

That money has found a new home in small caps which gained 10% in the last 30 days as the Fed looks set to make its first rate cut in September.

Here's what you need to know.

Markets

News & Notes

• Deficit: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink said that the only way to bring our debt and deficit back into balance is to grow our way out of it. "We have an infrastructure boom that is necessary...but we're inhibited by our controls." (CNBC)

• Blue Screen of Death: Delta Airlines CEO Ed Bastian said that last month's technology outage will cost $500 million. The airline notified cybersecurity firm Crowdstrike along with Microsoft to prepare for litigation. (WSJ)

• Olympics: The cost to put on the Paris Olympics is slated to come in at just under $9B. That's $20B less than the Tokyo games but continues a trend of cost overruns that is causing fewer cities to want to host. (NYT)

• Inflation: The personal-consumption expenditures price index for June rose 2.5% from a year ago, edging closer to the Fed's 2% target.  While interest rates were kept steady this week, the odds of a Fed rate cut at the September meeting are 90%. (WSJ)

• Make Crypto Great Again?: At a cryptocurrency conference in Nashville, Trump called for keeping a permanent stake in bitcoin by holding assets seized from financial criminals, rather than auctioning them off - a break from current policy. (CNBC)

• Election: The odds of a GOP sweep have dropped from 55% to 35% from July 12 according to Strategas. Momentum from Harris at the top of the ticket has had the effect of making down-ballot races more competitive. (Strategas)

Travel & Spend:

36 Hours: Nice, France (NYT)
36 Hours: San Diego (NYT)
36 Hours: Boston (NYT)
36 Hours: Izmir, Turkey (NYT)

Southwest to ditch open seating model (RT)

(Pie)Chart of the Month

The odds of living to 95 are higher than you might think. In fact, there's a nearly 50% chance that at least one member of a 65-year-old, non-smoking couple lives that long.

The implication is that retirees need to plan for their portfolios to last longer.  Having a sustainable portfolio withdrawal rate and keeping a portion of the portfolio positioned for growth are key considerations. Not sure where to start? Take PieCapital's Riskalyze assessment here to find your Risk Number. 

Source: (JPM).

Firm News

A three-hour tour...

PieCapital hosted a happy hour cruise in St. Michaels, MD for friends of the firm in the DC area. Great people, good weather, and cold drinks helped make our first client event a success. Thanks to all who came!

Nashville Cat.

I headed to Nashville last month to participate in Bunker Labs' CEOCircle Fly-In as a  “Speed Advisor” advising entrepreneurs on exit planning.

CEOCircle is a monthly peer accountability group for growth-stage companies looking to scale  - and it's designed specifically for veterans and military spouses. Over two days, we helped answer questions about M&A, banking, marketing, taxes, operations and more.

To learn more about Bunker Labs, go here.

Go Racquetfish!

The Raleigh Racquet Club Swim Team finished a successful summer season.  Cate & Ben were both selected as "Most Improved" in their age groups, and Jack learned to swim the entire length of the pool by himself!

Happy Birthday Jack!

Jack turned 5 last month. To celebrate we had a party in the backyard with a bounce house and donuts -- I tested both to make sure they were "safe" for kids.