November 2025

The Slice

A Monthly Market Update & Investment News Roundup

Cutting through the noise...so you don't have to.

Good morning,

There’s been a lot of talk about bubbles lately.  Asset bubbles. An AI bubble. Comparisons to the Dot Com Bubble. There's even an AI-powered app called Bubble.

Above: Katie Couric sat down with financial reporter and author Andrew Ross Sorkin to discuss his new book 1929. Sorkin believes we are in an "AI bubble." See the video here.

Looking back on past bubbles, we tend to characterize investors as being irrational or oblivious. But that's not always the case. Sometimes, investors realize they’re in a bubble but they stay invested due to a perceived lack of viable alternatives. 

“Do I buy Treasuries when government owes $38tn, corporate bonds with spreads at 20-year lows, stocks trading on a 40x CAPE, or gold that’s just gone vertical? Tricky.” 

– Michael Hartnett
 Chief Investment Strategist, BofA Merrill Lynch

Mr. Hartnett’s sentiment that compelling investment alternatives are hard to come by nowadays is valid. But guess what: You don't have to run money for Merrill Lynch! You don't have to be fully invested, and you don't have to manage your money to a benchmark. You get to do you. And because of that, there are plenty of things you can do to capitalize on the situation at hand. Here are a few:

1. Recheck Your Risk Tolerance.  You said you could withstand a 20% market decline. Is that still the case? Or, would you sleep better with less risk? Better to make the adjustment now at market highs than at the bottom of a market trough.
    
2. Rebalance. If you started 2023 with a 60% stock portfolio invested in the S&P 500, and the remaining 40% in U.S. bonds, you now have over 70% in stock. You can’t just let your garden grow however it wants to. You have to prune it from time to time. You also have to be a bit of a contrarian from an asset allocation standpoint; harvesting profits in areas that have done well, and plowing those proceeds back into areas that haven’t.
     
3. Pay Off High Interest Debt. Over the next 10 years, BlackRock expects U.S. equities to average 5.2%, annualized.  Do you have credit card debt, margin loan, student loan, a newer mortgage or HELOC, or a business line of credit that are above that level? If so, consider paying off all or a portion of that debt while the market is at highs.
    
4. Assess Your Liquidity Needs. Worried about the next drawdown? Build up your short term reserves. Map out big ticket purchases you plan to make over the next two years and earmark those funds in a high interest savings account. Keep two years of expenses net of any dividends, salary, social security, or pension income to buffer you against market declines. This mitigates the risk of permanently impairing capital by selling when the market is at a low.
    
5. Gift Shares. While markets are at all time highs, gift shares to a Donor Advised Fund for a tax deduction before the charitable rules change for 2026, or instead of cash, give a family member in a lower tax bracket appreciated shares who can then sell them with a lower tax liability than you can. Made a multi-year pledge commitment to a charity or alma mater? Rather than make equal annual payments, consider accelerating your giving now while the market is up.
    
6. Consider a Charitable Remainder Trust. Looking to make a major charitable gift ($1M+) but still need income? While the market is at an all time high, a 65-year old couple could make a gift of $1M in appreciated securities to a charitable remainder trust, receive an immediate $360,000 tax deduction and a ten-year income stream. The first year, the couple would receive $100,000 and 10% of the principal for the next nine years. Whatever is left would go to a charity (or charities). Disclaimer: You will need an estate planning attorney, CPA involvement, and a trust administrator (PieCapital can help with all of this).
    
7. Hedge. There are over 80 stocks in the S&P 500 that are up 30% or more this year (as of 10/28/25). If you have a concentrated position in Morgan Stanley, General Dynamics, L3Harris, RTX, GE Aerospace, Newmont, Citigroup, IBM, Palantir, or 70+ other companies that make up this group, congratulations! Now, consider protecting your position with a covered call with a 2026 expiration so you can delay any associated tax liability you may have until 2027.

Lastly, I would suggest considering the alternative: what if there is no imminent bubble and subsequent pop? The implications for cash under that scenario are underwhelming at best. The Fed has cut rates from a recent high of 5.4% last August to a range of 3.75-4% last week. Further, the market is pricing in a 40% chance that rates go below 3% by the end of next year. At the same time inflation is rising to...3%. Keeping the bulk of your savings in cash may feel good now, but once you factor in inflation, it's not a winning strategy for the long term. 

The Cost of Being Out of the Market

Source J.P. Morgan Asset Management using data from Bloomberg. Returns are based on the S&P 500 Total Return Index, an unmanaged, capitalization-weighted index that measures the performance of 500 large capitalization domestic stocks representing all major industries. Data as of June 30, 2025.

And there's a big price to pay for being out of the market too. If you missed just ten of the best days in the market over the last twenty years (less than 0.2% of trading days), your cumulative return drops from 560% to under 200%.

Bubble or not, that's an expensive proposition. Here's what you need to know.

Markets

2025 Year-to-Date Asset Class Returns

Data thru 10/31/2025. Source: © Exhibit A, FactSet Research Systems Inc., Standard & Poor's  This slide is for informational and illustrative purposes only. The data provided is believed to be accurate, but there is no guarantee of its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness.This is not a recommendation or offer of any financial product.
Past performance is not indicative of future results, andinvestors should consider their own objectives and risk tolerance.
Indices, if presented, do not include fees, are unmanaged, and not available for directinvestment.
Definitions & Methodology: The returns shown represent year-to-date price performance of sector ETFs provided by iShares (EEM, EFA, TIP,AGG, DJP), SPDR (GLD, VNQ, MDY, SPSM, SPY, BIL), and Vanguard (VNQ). These ETFs track the following sectors: Commodities, International, EmergingMarkets, U.S. Large Cap, REITs, U.S. Mid Cap, TIPS, U.S. Small Cap, Cash, and Bonds. Data is sorted by return from highest to lowest.

News & Notes

• Jobs: Large employers are retrenching, making deep cuts to white-collar positions and leaving fewer opportunities for experienced and new workers who had counted on well-paying office work to support families and fund retirements. (WSJ)
   
• Private Credit: Opinion: Isn’t there too much money chasing too few deals? Isn’t it the next bubble waiting to pop? Alternative asset manager Mike Kelly weighs in. (Barron's)
   
  • Carlyle's David Rubenstein interviews TCW CEO Katie Koch about her perspective on private credit. (BBG)
     
• Big Tech Earnings: A record-smashing rally in megacap high-fliers has shown no signs of stopping as blowout earnings readouts from technology heavyweights including Amazon and Apple defied warnings of a tech bubble. (BBG)
   
• Medicare Enrollment: Some insurers are raising prices on Medicare drug plans by as much as $50/month in 2026, but others are lowering premiums. Why you should check your 2026 plan now. (NYT)
   
  • Did you know? PieCapital retains health insurance specialist Move Health to review clients' coverage (Medicare, COBRA, Marketplace) for the next plan year as part of their service. Interested in a free assessment? Email us: hello@piecapital.com
     
• Longevity: Dr. Peter Attia is focused on making your last decade of life as enjoyable as possible. Without action, he says, "you will fall to a level of about 50% of your total capacity, cognitively and physically." (60 Minutes)
   
• Social Security: Social Security checks are rising 2.8% for 2026. The cost-of-living adjustment, or COLA, follows 2025's 2.5% increase, which was the smallest in four years. (WSJ)
   
• Minimizing Capital Gains: The specific shares you choose to sell can raise or lower how much tax you owe on winners. (WSJ)
   
• Government Shutdown: Wealthy philanthropists across the country are stepping in to help put food on the tables of 42 million Americans set to lose access to the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) over the weekend. (BBG)
   
• Travel & Spend:
  36 Hours: Miami (NYT)
  36 Hours: Majorca (NYT)
  36 Hours: Busan, South Korea (NYT)
  
  New Favorite Thing: Bombas Slippers

(Pie)Chart of the Month

Source: Exhibit A, Factset. Definitions & Methodology: The Forward Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio for an index measures its current price relative to expected earnings of the companies within the index over the next 12 months. It's calculated using consensus EPS estimates from FactSet. The chart shows the forward price-to-earnings ratio of select blue chip names at the dotcom bubble peak (3/24/2000) vs 10/28/2025.

At the March 2000 peak, leading tech names like Cisco and Oracle traded at extreme valuation multiples, with forward price-to-earnings ratios well above 100x. Today's largest S&P 500 constituents trade at far lower levels. While valuations have expanded, today's market environment is supported by stronger fundamentals, more diversified earnings, and greater profitability than during the 2000 cycle.

Management Tip

How to Disagree (Better):

1. Signal that you want to learn. Start by stating your curiosity. Try: “It seems we see this differently. I’m curious how you’re thinking about it.” This makes others feel heard without weakening your own position. 
    
2. Acknowledge their perspective. Repeating what someone just said accurately and without judgment shows respect. “I hear you. The team’s been working long hours…” signals that their message landed with you, even if you ultimately disagree.
    
3. Find shared goals. Highlight common ground with phrases like “We both want…” or “I agree with some of what you’re saying.” This frames the conversation as collaboration, not combat. 
    
4. Hedge your claims. Show humility with language like “From my view…” or “It might be the case…” People trust those who allow for complexity instead of clinging to certainty. 
    
5. Tell your story. Share a personal experience that shaped your view. Vulnerability builds trust faster than data alone and helps shift the conversation from facts to understanding. 

Read the full article here. "A Smarter Way to Disagree" by Hanne K. Collins, et al. Harvard Business Review, November-December 2025.

Firm News

October Rebalance

Last month, all PieCapital managed portfolios were rebalanced and traded to remain in line with risk/return objectives. PieCapital leverages BlackRock as an outsourced chief investment officer for the core portion of our portfolios, and complements those holdings with private capital, hedged equity, and dividend-focused equities to help retirees and near retirees maximize their income in retirement. 

Open Enrollment

Every year, health insurance plan changes can have an impact on your premiums, in-network doctors and pharmacies, prescription drug costs, and more. Keeping track of these changes is complicated, so that's why we've partnered with Move Health to help you navigate your coverage options with clarity and confidence.  

Details & Timelines

• Clients on Medicare from Oct 15 - Dec 7: You can switch your Original Medicare, Medicare Advantage, or prescription drug plan.
• Clients on the Marketplace from Nov 1 - Jan 15: You can switch your Marketplace plan or drop COBRA early.
• Existing Clients: Be on the lookout for an email from us with sign up information. It's included in your service!
• Prospective Clients: Interested in a free assessment of your health insurance options for 2026? If you're a current Medicare beneficiary, email us at hello@piecapital.com to set up your assessment. 

Two Incredible Seasons!

The Raleigh Incredibles finished their first season of soccer undefeated! We had a great group of kids, had fun, developed our skills, and learned to play as a team. 

Ben's team, the Raleigh Red Bulls (below) also went undefeated! Go Jack & Ben!  

North Carolina Heroes Fund - Fall Fundraisers

The North Carolina Heroes Fund (NCHF) raised almost $60,000 at our fall fundraisers. Thanks to Bill Gorman (Peak Solutions) and Lenny Knott (Barringer Construction) for all of their hard work to make the events successful. NCHF helps transitioning servicemembers and veterans facing a short term financial hardship by providing a one-time grant to help them get back on their feet. Learn more about NCHF here.

All The...Fall Things

Lily and Evie hit the pumpkin patch. Cate, Ben & Jack went to a fall festival. We're bullish!

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