YOUR QUIVER | February 8, 2023
Today's Rundown
CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.
Sticker Shock
Used-vehicle prices increased by 2.5% in Jan, per auctioneer Manheim. We wonder if we’ll hear Fed folks with a vote talk about sticky inflation today, on the back of Powell’s dovish comments yesterday, or whether we’ll get more coos from Williams, Cook, Barr, Kashkari and Waller.
Tuesday's Tell
We’ll be watching Jan CPI next week (counting down below), along with the rest of the world. Given the used car prices, traders are expecting higher inflation. So, we will probably need a much higher than expected number to cool off this hot market. Otherwise, we may grind higher until either (i) a meaningfully different dot plot in Mar or (ii) actual hikes in May and/or June by the Fed.
Right the Ship
Mega shipper Maersk talked about “muted” growth in 2023, with expected global container shipping volumes to be down by up to -2.5%. The CEO said they have to deal with a “significant inventory adjustment,” which translates into slower demand for goods after the pandemic pop.
Blizzard Conditions
The UK antitrust watchdog said that Microsoft’s acquisition of Activision Blizzard will harm competition.
You're Welcome
Uber beat, with higher demand for takeout and rides. Gross bookings rose by 19%. Uber Eats represents around 47% of overall rev. I believe our family did its fair share of ensuring a good quarter, so you’re welcome.
Hard to Read
A senior Taiwan official is visiting China today, as the gov signaled it would remove a ban on food imports from Taiwan. A signal that Xi is walking back his military objectives? Or just the desire to get cheaper food in while they reopen?
WTI Watch
WTI is up, based on China reopening themes. Iran estimates Brent will hit $100 in 2H23. Given production outages, the FGE said that short-term prices could hit $90.
A Ray of Hope
Earnings upgrades in the Eurozone are finally outnumbering downgrades, per BBG.
Beleaguered Brits
The Natl Institute of Econ and Social Research estimate that 1 in 4 UK households won’t be able to afford energy and food costs this year.
Broken Arrow
Kyle Davies, a co-founder of failed crypto hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, isn’t playing nice in the bankruptcy proceedings. He’s still on Twitter, just not complying with the court system. Wonder if owing $3bn to creditors has anything to do with going MIA…
At Your Own Risk
Royal Caribbean is back raising $700mm in the junk bond market for refinancing. Anyone else seen the headlines lately about avian bird flu, a fungal pandemic, and other potential cruise-killers?
Did You Know?
The NASDAQ was born on this day in 1971, creating the first electronic stock market in the world. More surprising? It was founded by Bernie Madoff. Thanks for the history lesson, NOSO.
