Cutting through the noise...so you don't have to.
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November 2024
The Slice
A Monthly Market Update & Investment News Roundup
Cutting through the noise...so you don't have to.
Good morning,
Just six weeks have passed since the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut, but long term interest rates are moving in the opposite direction - and quickly.
Since the cut, interest rates on 10 Year Treasury bonds have risen half of a percent, and rates on mortgages are back to their highest levels since July.
"Another wave of inflation is likely higher than the consensus believes...due to deficits, deglobalization, decarbonization, mass immigration, pent-up demand for wages, and historical precedent," says Strategas' chief investment officer Jason Trennert.
On the deficit point, the performance of gold this year is confirming Trennert's view. The yellow metal added another five percent in October and is now up 33% for the year.
But another explanation for the spike in interest rates is that the market is starting to price in a Trump presidency, which is being reflected in betting markets. Economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal believe that inflation and deficits would be higher under Trump, and this could be what's driving rates higher.
The election is finally here. Can you believe there's only four more days of unsolicited political texts...until the runoff ones begin?
Here's what you need to know.
Markets
News & Notes
Commercial Real Estate is a Buy: Blackstone's Jon Gray says the commercial real estate market is bottoming - and it's time to buy. (Goldman Sachs)
Long Term Care: Genworth, a major player in the market for long term care for seniors, recently told investors it had an "outstanding quarter" with premium increases averaging 47%.That doesn't sit well with policyholders who have seen years of consecutive increases in premiums. (Barron's)
Making Google Better: David Rubenstein asks Google CEO Sundar Pichai about what the company is doing to enable better search results using AI. (Bloomberg)
Inflation: The Fed's preferred measure of inflation is down to 2.1%, but core inflation, that strips out food and energy prices, is still well above the Fed's target. (NYT)
How much should I save for Retirement?: Morningstar's Christine Benz sat down with Barron's to answer this question, and discuss her new book. (Barron's)
End of Year Tax Planning: Four things you should do before the end of the year to reduce your 2024 taxes. (WSJ)
Election: Early voting in North Carolina and Nevada has come in strong for Republicans, but it's a tight race - so tight in fact that there's a 44% chance that the election isn't called until at least Thursday of next week. (Strategas)
(Pie)Chart of the Month
Seasonality of Market Peaks
Markets were bumpy this week, but statistically it pays to hold your position until the end of the year and into January. Since 1950, the market has peaked in January or December 56% of the time. If returns were randomly distributed across months, that number should be closer to 16%. One explanation for this anomaly is that the investment industry is judged on calendar year performance, and a strong first half start to the year will force underinvested market participants into the market in the second half. (3Fourteen Research)
Firm News
PieCapital Adds Award Winning Retirement Distribution Planning Tool
This month, I am proud to announce new financial planning software designed for retirees and those approaching retirement. Income Lab is ranked as the #1 retirement distribution planning software and helps retirees answer questions like...
- What can I spend?
- How long will it last?
- What would lead to an adjustment in my living expenses?
Not only that, Income Lab will use your risk score to take into account return assumptions in the future customized to you, and also allow you to see your entire balance sheet all in one place. A phased rollout of this software will take place starting in 2025. As a reminder, all planning and planning tools are included as part of your service at PieCapital.
Email will@piecapital.com to setup a time to discuss.
Meet Lyndia, Medicare Expert
Medicare's Annual Election & Enrollment Period has begun and I am so pleased with PieCapital's new healthcare planning partner Move Health that I can hardly stand it. Here's a recent email I got from Lyndia, our dedicated Medicare expert, after a review of a client's Part D and Medicare Supplement:
We got X approved for a Plan G with Allstate at $1,430.16 annually. Saving her $2,305.84 annually in premiums. The Plan G will give her a deductible of $255 next year whereas the plan F had no deductible but that still puts her ahead over 2K. We enrolled her new drug plan as well saving her an additional $1,000 next year.
Lyndia's calendar is filling up! Email will@piecapital.com to book an appointment before the annual enrollment period ends on December 7th.
Disclaimer: We don't sell insurance, and not everyone will have the same experience as this client. But it's worth checking - an appointment takes just 30 minutes and insurance planning is included as part of your fee. I'm also supposed to tell you that no one was compensated for this testimonial: Lyndia just kicks butt everyday as part of her normal routine.
Tax Return Review
Was your tax return on extension this year? Interested in what you can do before year end to reduce your tax bill? Think you might need a different CPA?
Email will@piecapital.com to setup a secure upload link for your return or schedule a call to discuss here.
Wild Thing.
The Red Bulls finished their fall season last week. This season, we added 7 new players, a new assistant coach, and learned a new formation as we transitioned to 7 vs 7 soccer. We lost our last game in a nail biter at the end, but we're coming for you next spring, Raleigh Republic!
Go Army!
I headed up to West Point, NY for my 20 year college reunion. Highlights included seeing old friends, watching the Army football team win, and presenting a thank you gift to our guest speaker Colonel Joe Adamczyk, whom we affectionately referred to as "Skeletor" in our cadet years. I think it was the only time I have ever seen him smile.
Also a highlight: PieCapital helped sponsor our class's nonprofit, The Strong Gray Line, and its efforts to pay for the families of fallen classmates to attend the reunion and host a dinner and evening of remembrance in their honor. Strong Gray Line also provides scholarships and college funding to children of fallen classmates and inspire a legacy of service in future generations.
Happy Halloween!
Your Retirement Copilot
Hi, I'm Will Revels, a West Point graduate turned wealth advisor. For over a decade I have helped transitioning business owners and retiring executives develop clear strategies to achieve their financial goals.
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