September 2025

The Slice

A Monthly Market Update & Investment News Roundup

Cutting through the noise...so you don't have to.

Good morning,

With markets at all-time highs and the Fed likely to cut rates at this month’s meeting, I thought I would take a break from talking about investing money and instead devote some time to how to spend it.

Every August, our family travels to the small village of Duck, in the Outer Banks, where my in-laws rent a house for the week. This year marked our 11th year.

When we first started going, my wife will tell you that I wasn’t really a beach person. And, though I genuinely like my in-laws, it’s a lot of “togetherness.” But I have grown to really enjoy it. I enjoy beach walks early in the morning. I enjoy going to the boardwalk and getting coffee (or ice cream) with the family, and watching the kids play in the sand or look for shells. And I enjoy being in the water. While some of my peers may have boats, I am the proud owner of a 44’’ boogie board, “The Slick Lizard,” which has ridden some of the gnarliest waves ever to hit the North Carolina shore.

One of my favorite times is cocktail hour, which sometimes happens a little earlier than 5pm. As I was sitting on the porch sipping my signature gin drink with my father-in-law, we talked about how the money used to rent this beach house might be the best money someone could spend. And why is that? Because this week at the beach has crossed over from trip to tradition--a time when everyone gets to be together, have fun and (for some of us) ride some gnarly waves. It also pays what author Bill Perkins calls a “memory dividend,” where you get to look back and remember fun times you had in years past--and look forward to future ones.

But how do you turn a trip into a tradition? To answer that, I tried to come up with a sort of guide for newish grandparents, from the perspective of a young family:

• Pick a place you like, rather than one you think someone else will like. My in-laws have been going to Duck since the 1980s. They know, at a minimum, that they like it--and that also makes them good at planning it. Also, no one else is going to have a good time if you aren’t having a good time.
   
• Choose a “magnet” to get your entire family to commit. Beaches, ski slopes, lakes, and mountains are all good choices because you can’t age out of these places. Planning the trip around a week-long defense contractor convention for your entire extended family is probably not going to be everyone’s cup of tea.
   
• Pick somewhere that is easily accessible. If everyone lives on the east coast, planning to meet at the Grand Canyon is not a tradition that’s likely to stick. In the case of Duck, it is about a six-hour drive on average for each of our family units. Are there nicer beaches? Yes. Is Hawaii logistically realistic for three young families? No.
   
• Make everyone put some skin in the game. This could be requiring everyone to pay for themselves to get there, help with groceries, or take turns making dinner, etc. It’s less about saving money than it is making everyone feel like they are needed and valued for contributing.
   
• Consider renting over buying. There will always be those who want to own, but in my experience, renting has more advantages for a big family trip. First, it’s a flexible arrangement that can grow with you. The first year we started doing this, our family consisted of seven adults and three children. Now we are eight adults, seven children and a dog--by renting, my in-laws have been able to get bigger houses (and pet-friendly ones) as our family has grown. Second, we can treat it like a rental. I don’t mean we tear up the house; I simply mean that no one worries about maintenance issues or cleaning it ourselves, all the while relieving you of having to play “host” for a week. And if it turns out to be a horrible experience, well, you can try somewhere else!
   
• Pick a time of year with the lowest amount of friction. If you’re retired, remember that you likely have more money and time than your kids do with young families. Would it be cheaper to go to the beach in September? Yes. Is it feasible to do that with school, sports, and other activities? No.
   

• Resist the urge to “agendify” the week. It’s their vacation, too. Unstructured time is your friend, and it’s important for adults as well as kids. It creates space for memory-making, boredom, bonding, creativity, relationship-building, etc. Read a book, play cards, go for a run, or see what the kids can teach you.

Thank you, Larry & Nancy for making me a "beach person." We look forward to this week at the end of the summer every year. And for the readers, I hope this helps you cement your own traditions - wherever you spend them.

Here's what you need to know.

Markets

2025 Year-to-Date Asset Class Returns

Data thru 8/29/2025. Source: © Exhibit A, FactSet Research Systems Inc., Standard & Poor's  This slide is for informational and illustrative purposes only. The data provided is believed to be accurate, but there is no guarantee of its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. This is not a recommendation or offer of any financial product. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investors should consider their own objectives and risk tolerance. Indices, if presented, do not include fees, are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment. Definitions & Methodology: The returns shown represent year-to-date return performance of sector ETFs provided by iShares (EEM, EFA, TIP, AGG, DJP), SPDR (MDY, SPSM, SPY, BIL), and Vanguard (VNQ). These ETFs track the following sectors: Commodities, International, Emerging Markets, U.S. Large Cap, REITs, U.S. Mid Cap, TIPS, U.S. Small Cap, Cash, and Bonds. Data is sorted by return from highest to lowest.

News & Notes

• Jobs: The labor market has moved front and center for the Federal Reserve. While inflation is still above the Fed's 2% target, worries about a weakening job market are growing. (WSJ)
   
• China Tariffs Delayed: President Trump extended a pause of higher tariffs on Chinese goods for another 90 days, stabilizing trade ties between the world’s two largest economies. (BBG)
   
  • What Do C.E.O.s Really Think About Trump's Tariffs? (NYT)
• Intel Agrees To Sell U.S. A 10% Stake: The deal is among the largest government interventions in a U.S. company since the rescue of the auto industry after the 2008 financial crisis. (NYT)
   
  • Interview with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick (CNBC)
• Housing: Commissions paid to realtors haven't changed since a $418M settlement was reached with the National Association of Realtors last year. (WSJ)
   
  • Mortgage rates slip to lowest level of 2025. (WSJ)
• Three Ways To Give Real Estate To Your Kid PLUS What Not To Do: The key to owning property may no longer be related to income or credit, but having parents who can hand over a home the right way. (BBG)
   
• Work: In 2017, there was one manager for every five employees. Now, that ratio is one for every fifteen (and growing). What it means for workers and managers. (WSJ)
   
• Taylor Swift: Yes she's getting married. But Rhode Island's new tax on vacation homes valued at $1M+, nicknamed the "Taylor Swift Tax," is causing a stir. (CNBC)
   
• Travel & Spend:
  36 Hours: Portland, Oregon (NYT)
  36 Hours: Normandy, France (NYT)
  36 Hours: Jackson Hole (NYT)

(Pie)Chart of the Month

Does It Still Pay To Switch Jobs For The Same Work?

Source: 3Fourteen Research, Atlanta Fed.

For the first time in years, job switchers (blue line) aren't seeing a relative boost to their wages vs. job stayers (purple line), a sign that the job market is weakening.

Management Tip of the Month

Communicate Like an Executive.

1. Recognize that less is often more.
2. Tailor your message.
3. Pause before you speak.
4. Frame with intention by providing structure and clarity.
5. Test it first.

Read the full article here.

Firm News

PieCapital 💚 Veterans

Last month, I was invited to speak at West Point to share what the Class of 2004 is doing to address suicide, promote connection and positive mental health through our nonprofit, The Strong Gray Line.

I'm also proud to announce that I'm taking the helm as chairman at North Carolina Heroes Fund (NCHF). NCHF helps transitioning servicemembers and veterans facing a short term financial hardship by providing a one-time grant to help them get back on their feet. All North Carolina veterans and anyone who served or is serving at the state's six major installations or guard facilities are eligible. Learn more here.

Back to School

Cate is in 5th grade, Ben is in 4th and Jack starts kindergarten. Hooray, routine!

Incredibles!

Soccer season has started, and this year I'm coaching Jack's team, the Raleigh Incredibles. We kicked off the season with a pizza party and a 8-0 win. Go Incredibles!

Fantasy Football Draft

Ben and I spent a lot of time putting together a "C+" draft according to the good folks over at Yahoo! Sports. That's okay. We gave them a "D" for "Don't use your search engine." 

Goodbye Summer!

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