June 2025

The Slice

A Monthly Market Update & Investment News Roundup

Cutting through the noise...so you don't have to.

Good morning,

A much-maligned training requirement of the post-Vietnam Army was preparing for the possibility of a nuclear, biological or chemical weapon attack, which we referred to as "NBC" for short.

Within nine seconds of hearing the call “GAS, GAS, GAS!”, a soldier was expected to don his/her M40 protective gas mask, check for a good seal, and positive airflow to be "safe" (read: avoid pushups). To build confidence in our equipment, a rite of passage during basic training was wearing the mask into a chamber full of tear gas (and then removing the mask to prove one’s toughness).

Above: A soldier dons his M40 protective mask. Source: DVIDS.

However helpful the mask was defending against tear gas, no one felt a great deal of confidence that a cheap rubber mask would protect them from a legitimate nuclear, biological or chemical threat – and on the spectrum of bad things that could happen, an NBC attack renders a lot of other things moot. So, NBC training took on a different meaning: No Body Cares. 

As it happens, nobody cares about tariffs either. Since the April 8 lows, the market has rallied 19.5%, and has now turned positive for the year. Between rolling back tariffs on China for 90 days, delaying the implementation of reciprocal tariffs on other countries, and carving out exemptions, the market has come to discount current tariff policy as nothing more than a piece of Swiss cheese with holes for all manner of things.

But lately, NBC hasn't been confined to just tariffs. The market has also shrugged off a negative GDP reading for the first quarter, mortgage rates moving over 7%, and a Moody’s credit rating downgrade of the U.S --and keeps moving higher.

Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, points out that this kind of momentum is a rare, bullish sign for equities. Going back to 1950, the S&P 500 has increased by 20% (technically 19.5%) in a 28-day period only three other times—1982, 2009, and 2020. The return over the next year? Up 33%, on average.  

That sounds like the kind of return everyone should care about.

Here's what you need to know.

Markets

2025 Year-to-Date Asset Class Returns

Data thru 5/31/2025. Source: © Exhibit A, FactSet Research Systems Inc., Standard & Poor's  This slide is for informational and illustrative purposes only. The data provided is believed to be accurate, but there is no guarantee of its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. This is not a recommendation or offer of any financial product. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investors should consider their own objectives and risk tolerance. Indices, if presented, do not include fees, are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment. Definitions & Methodology: The returns shown represent year-to-date return performance of sector ETFs provided by iShares (EEM, EFA, TIP, AGG, DJP), SPDR (MDY, SPSM, SPY, BIL), and Vanguard (VNQ). These ETFs track the following sectors: Commodities, International, Emerging Markets, U.S. Large Cap, REITs, U.S. Mid Cap, TIPS, U.S. Small Cap, Cash, and Bonds. Data is sorted by return from highest to lowest.

News & Notes

• Big Beautiful Bill: The House passed its version of the budget reconciliation bill last month. The bill is expected to add $2.8-$3.4 trillion in deficits over ten years, mostly due to extending tax rates from the Tax Cuts & Job Act of 2017. The bill now heads to the Senate where no major changes are expected. (JPM)
   
• 50/50: To grow our way of debt, Vanguard says we need an AI boom to unlock greater productivity. The odds of doing so, it says, are basically a coin flip. (Barron's)
   
• Building a Resilient Retirement Portfolio: Tips for making your retirement portfolio more resilient. (Barron's)
   
• Rolling over a 401k? Watch Out For This: A worker's rollover check was stolen and fraudulently cashed after Paychex sent it to him in the mail. The two parties are now in court. (NYT)
   
• Longevity Americans in their 80s and 90s are redefining old age. (WSJ)
   
• Leaving a home to heirs: Home equity has ballooned in recent years, but people who use a new way to pass it on can run into trouble. (WSJ)
   
• Grandparenting For Dummies: Grandparenting in the 21st century involves shifting roles, new boundaries and online advice. (WSJ)
   
• 529 Plan Alternatives: Four alternatives to 529 plans for college savings. (WSJ)
   
• Travel & Spend:
  36 Hours: Marseille (NYT)
  36 Hours: Annapolis (NYT)
  36 Hours: Santa Fe (NYT)
  
  Doing Disney on a Budget (WSJ)

(Pie)Chart of the Month

Source: The Atlantic.  

Recent college graduates now have a higher unemployment rate than the overall labor market - and that gap is getting worse for new grads. Pictured above is an economic indicator called the Recent Grad-Gap, which subtracts recent graduate unemployment from total employment. This may be one sign that AI is beginning to replace entry level jobs.

Firm News

Out on Top! 

The Red Bulls finished their season strong with a 6-1-1 record. After dropping our first game of the season, we didn't lose again. I'll be handing the baton off to Coach Nathan next season, but I have really enjoyed coaching them the last four seasons (well, most of the time). Go Red Bulls!

43 years.

We celebrated my birthday last month 🎉at a neighborhood restaurant. The chef sent three desserts ...to the kids, not me...because he thought they were well behaved. I told him I thought I was pretty well behaved, but that didn't work.

Graduation Season!

Evie and Jack both graduated from Pre-K last month! Congratulations graduates and good luck in kindergarten!

Gnarly Waves.

Both the Revels and the Robertson families headed to the beach last month to kick off the summer. 

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