October 2025

The Slice

A Monthly Market Update & Investment News Roundup

Cutting through the noise...so you don't have to.

Good morning,

Before we get started, here's a quick primer on government shutdowns and what this one may mean for you:

• Social Security: Payments to beneficiaries for Social Security, Disability, and SSI will continue to be made.
• Air Travel: TSA/Air Traffic Controllers are deemed essential so airports remain open, but workers aren't getting paid so be prepared for delays. 
• Veterans: Veterans continue to receive retirement/VA benefits and medical care through DOD/VA, although new claims will experience processing delays.

We also assess the impact of prior shutdowns on the market in our Chart of the Month section below.

But a shutdown won't stop The Slice. Here's what you need to know.

To explain what is going on at the Federal Reserve, I asked ChatGPT for help. The results were mixed:

If the Federal Reserve were a TV Show, what would it be?

ChatGPT 5: Sesame Street. The educational yet dry classic. If you squint: it's about teaching, repeating key lessons ("inflation bad, stability good"), and sometimes simplifying complex things so the public can understand.

I'd say its a lot spicier than that. 

Exhibit A: A voting member of the Fed, Lisa Cook, is suing the President (and her immediate boss, Jerome Powell) to keep her job after Trump tried to fire her for an allegedly fraudulent mortgage application. The Supreme Court is expected to hear the case. I don't recall Snuffelupagus ever taking legal action against Big Bird!

And then there's new appointee Stephen Miran to the Fed's Board of Governors. Miran was confirmed by the Senate just in time to vote at last month's Fed meeting. His confirmation was controversial because Miran is concurrently serving as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisors (in the Trump administration). He plans to continue holding that seat, albeit on an unpaid leave of absence. Still, critics have argued that this move puts the Fed's independence at risk. More on that in a minute.

Miran made a splash in his first week on the job by not only dissenting from the majority, but also calling for five more rate cuts...in the next 90 days. Were that to happen, the Federal Funds rate would be under 2% and below the current inflation rate. For context, the next closest member was at two quarter point cuts.

Not all market pundits were keen on what this might portend for interest rate policy under a new Fed Chair:

The new guy wants five cuts between now and year end? I think that that's a little bit disturbing for the inflation outlook. It's quite possible, if not likely, that Trump is going to replace Jay Powell with somebody else, and based upon this action today of this five cut [projection] way out in left field, you wonder if you're not going to be running a more inflationary policy.

- Jeffrey Gundlach
Founder/CEO DoubleLine Capital

As made for TV as all of this sounds, let's keep the main thing the main thing: The Fed is cutting rates. The committee projects five more cuts through the end of 2027 (but not in the next three months). If the Fed is right, that is bullish for stocks, especially while the market is at record highs. 

“Since 1984, the Fed has cut rates 28 different times when the S&P 500 was within 3% of an all-time high. After the cut, the broader market traded higher by an average of 13.0% 12 months later, with 93% of periods producing positive returns,” says LPL's Chief Technical Strategist, Adam Turnquist. And that figure rises to 18.2% when the Fed is not cutting into a recession.

Sounds like sunny days sweeping the clouds away to me. 

Markets

2025 Year-to-Date Asset Class Returns

Data thru 9/29/2025. Source: © Exhibit A, FactSet Research Systems Inc., Standard & Poor's  This slide is for informational and illustrative purposes only. The data provided is believed to be accurate, but there is no guarantee of its accuracy, completeness, or timeliness. This is not a recommendation or offer of any financial product. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and investors should consider their own objectives and risk tolerance. Indices, if presented, do not include fees, are unmanaged, and not available for direct investment. Definitions & Methodology: The returns shown represent year-to-date return performance of sector ETFs provided by iShares (EEM, EFA, TIP, AGG, DJP), SPDR (MDY, SPSM, SPY, BIL), and Vanguard (VNQ). These ETFs track the following sectors: Commodities, International, Emerging Markets, U.S. Large Cap, REITs, U.S. Mid Cap, TIPS, U.S. Small Cap, Cash, and Bonds. Data is sorted by return from highest to lowest.

News & Notes

• Economy: In the latest revision, strong consumer spending and AI data centers are fueling latest GDP numbers. (WSJ)
   
• Rare Earths: China dominates the rare earth market, controlling about 85% of global processing capacity. The Department of Defense has a plan to rectify that. (Barron's)
   
• New Tax Break for Concierge Medicine: Starting next year, some direct primary-care patients can use HSA funds for membership fees, up to $150 monthly for individuals. What to know. (Barron's)
   
• H1B Visa:  Effective September 21st, the cost of obtaining an H1B Visa increased to $100,000 from $2,500, causing startups and venture-backed companies to rethink hiring plans. (WSJ)
   
• Student Loan Debt: After years of pandemic era forbearance, Americans with student loan debt are now required to make monthly payments. About 30% of borrowers haven't made a payment in 90 days or more. (BBG)
  
  Plus: Best Colleges in America; including Best Value (WSJ)
   
• Retirement: Lifespans are getting longer, and so are Americans' careers. What it's like to retire after 75. (WSJ)
   
• Health Insurance: Employers expect a 9% rise in health insurance premiums in 2026 as costs rise and ACA credits expire. This may be the year to switch plans. (NYT)
  
  Note: Clients at PieCapital get concierge health insurance assessments to find the right plan for them. Over 65 and interested in a free assessment of your health insurance options for 2026? If you're a current Medicare beneficiary, email us at hello@piecapital.com to setup your assessment.
   
• Travel & Spend:
  36 Hours: Zadar, Croatia (NYT)
  36 Hours: Sedona, Arizona (NYT)
  36 Hours: Costa Brava, Spain (NYT)
  36 Hours: Litchfield County, Connecticut (NYT)

(Pie)Chart of the Month

Source: Bloomberg, Truist.

Government shutdowns are a non-event for the market. There have been 20 shutdowns in the last 50 years. Average length of shutdown = 8 days. Average return for the S&P 500 over that time span = flat.

Management Tip of the Month

How to Redesign Entry-Level Jobs in the Age of AI

1. Make tasks about learning, not repetition. Use AI to handle execution while junior employees learn to explain results, challenge assumptions and add human context.
2. Focus on skills, not shortcuts. Train early-career talent to interrogate AI outputs, not just accept them.
3. Rethink workflows to elevate human value. Keep people where relationships, creativity and nuance matter.
4. Make development the job. Entry level roles should be a proving ground. Build in opportunities for pressure, failure, and growth.

Read the full article here.

Firm News

Client Service Calendar

To better serve you, we're rolling out a service calendar that focuses our efforts on certain planning topics throughout the year, and designates certain months as "client meeting" times.

The main goal of the service calendar is to synchronize our delivery of advice around the various tax milestones that occur during the year. A key initiative for 2026 will be preparing a tax letter that lists every thing we have done in your investment accounts that your CPA needs to be aware of, as well as a checklist for each tax document you need to file your return. All you need to do is forward it to him/her!

AI Upgrades

You may notice a new guest on our Zoom calls! That is our new AI tool, Jump. Jump helps us summarize our meetings with you by transcribing follow up notes, assigning action items, and memorializing our conversations, so that we can spend less time typing notes and more time with our clients.

Open Enrollment

Every year, health insurance plan changes can have an impact on your premiums, in-network doctors and pharmacies, prescription drug costs, and more. Keeping track of these changes is complicated, so that's why we've partnered with Move Health to help you navigate your coverage options with clarity and confidence.  

Details & Timelines

• Clients on Medicare from Oct 15 - Dec 7: You can switch your Original Medicare, Medicare Advantage, or prescription drug plan.
• Clients on the Marketplace from Nov 1 - Jan 15: You can switch your Marketplace plan or drop COBRA early.
• Existing Clients: Be on the lookout for an email from us with signup information. It's included in your service!
• Prospective Clients: Interested in a free assessment of your health insurance options for 2026? If you're a current Medicare beneficiary, email us at hello@piecapital.com to setup your assessment. 

Guns & Ships!

We hosted a phenomenal event in New York last weekend. Over dinner, our speaker, Bob Jones, talked with our clients about how he learned to adapt to change over the course of his life -- from playing football at West Point to becoming a fighter pilot, to surviving five years as a POW, to a successful career as an airline pilot and business leader in the private sector.

The next day we took a boat up to West Point to watch the Black Knights take on North Texas. Army lost a close one, but what a great weekend! Thank you to Bob, our clients and friends who attended.

Never Forget Pickleball Tournament

I spent September 11th playing pickleball. First time playing for me and my partner (Nick Bradfield, pictured), but we held our own, and dang if it wasn't addictive! Thanks to Marlie Andersch and rockITdata for organizing a great event benefitting Stop Soldier Suicide. 

Happy Fall, Y'all!

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