YOUR QUIVER | February 21, 2023

Today's Rundown

CIO | Nadine Terman @SolsteinCapital details what she's seeing in global financial markets.

A Quick Take for Today

A backup in UST yields and weak guidance by Walmart and Home Depot followed an 8th consecutive weak EZ PMI reading. Stocks decidedly down to start the day. 

4Q Earnings Recap

Bernstein noted that during 4Q earnings season, beats on top + bottom lines resulted in 60bps of return on the print, versus double missed were hit with -170bps of drawdown. Only three sectors will have shown positive growth on the bottom line (Energy, Industrials and Utilities). Materials’ estimates have been hit the most by analysts, next followed by Comm Services and Cons Discret.

The Technicals

Per UBS, the ave intraday range for the S&P for the past 5 trading sessions was ~1.2% of its underlying level. That level is historically where the line is that separates a bullish versus a bearish market. So, are we grinding higher? We still think central bankers will be driving the bus here, and the next big macro data point is the Jobs Report on Mar 10. The VIX moved back up.

Sports Fan

Ampere Analysis projects that Spend by subscriptions OTT services on sports rights will be $8.5bn this year, a 64% increase y/y. Also, Advanced TV projects that streaming platforms will spend even more on sports, at around 21% of global spend this year.

China Net

China Internet stocks down after 2 big stories: Meituan is hiring drivers in HK to take on Foodpanda and Deliveroo, and JD plans a $1.5bn offensive against PDD. Also, the US Treasury is warning Chinese companies that supply tech to Russia that sanctions could be coming. That’s a big stick.

In Person

Hopefully that’s what the data from Sensor Tower means. Dating and Social Discovery app (e.g., Tinder, Bumble, Hinge) installs were down 11% 4Q y/y. Annually the figure was down -7%. Women are an increasingly lower percentage of installs as well. Maybe people are getting out more now after the pandemic, which would be a good thing socially.

Meta Blue

That’s what Meta’s new Twitter-riff Verified service sounds like. For $14.99/mo you can verify your account, if you still have one.

Crypto Party

BTC and ETH are up over +40% YTD. Bernstein lays out the case for ETH based on greater on-chain user activity. Basically greater activity drives on-chain app revs, which drive greater revenue for Ethereum and Layer-2 chains, which should benefit the underlying assets.

Fundraising Flop

Prequin noted a 65% decline in vc funds raised in 4Q22—the lowest 4Q amount since 2013. Maybe LPs are waiting for valuations to come down to public co levels before adding new capital.