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May 5, 2022 - Brief Issue 325

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

CDC Says Masks Still Important on Trains, Planes (Health & Science)

Vanishing Variants Could Hold Clues (Health & Science)

Pandemic Hampers Global Efforts on Climate Change (Around the World)

Covid-19 Leading Cause of Maternal Deaths in Latin America, Says WHO (Around the World)

Democrats Skeptical Backlash on Draft Overturning of Roe Will Fuel Midterm Success (U.S. Government & Politics)

Proposed NYC Rent Increase Sparks Criticism (U.S. Government & Politics)

Jonathan Karl Tests Positive After White House Correspondents Dinner, Shook Hands with President, Sat Next to Kardashian (U.S. Government & Politics)

Fed Raises Interest Rates by Half a Point, Largest Increase Since 2000 (U.S. Economy)

Shanghai Lockdown Generates Supply Chain Issues for U.S. Economy (U.S. Economy)

Uber’s Revenue Doubles, But Stock Still Falls (U.S. Economy)

U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Record $109.8 Billion (U.S. Economy)

A Post-Pandemic Cat Business Boom (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 81,620,403 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 996,705 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 577,306,842 vaccine doses, with 77.7% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.2% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.1% have received at least one dose, and 76.2% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 45.9% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 515,641,293 cases of coronavirus, with 6,245,354 deaths.

CDC Says Masks Still Important on Trains, Planes

On Tuesday federal health officials reiterated that masks should be worn on airplanes, buses, trains, and other public transportation in spite of a federal judge’s order last month that struck down the transportation mask mandate. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said that masks are still an important tool for stopping the spread of the coronavirus (WaPo). In addition to protecting the wearer, masks also protect those who are more vulnerable to the virus, like those who are immunocompromised or haven’t been vaccinated yet. “CDC continues to recommend that all people — passengers and workers, alike — properly wear a well-fitting mask or respirator in indoor public transportation conveyances and transportation hubs to provide protection for themselves and other travelers in these high volume, mixed population settings,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said in a statement that accompanied the recommendation.

Vanishing Variants Could Hold Clues 

As Omicron and its subvariants continue to sweep across the globe, scientists say that understanding the variants that didn’t gain global traction could hold important clues for the future of the virus. Variants Gamma, Iota, and Mu, for example, all drove local surges but fizzled before gaining global dominance (NYT). “This virus has no incentive to stop adapting and evolving,” said Joel Wertheim, a molecular epidemiologist at the University of California San Diego. “And seeing how it did that in the past will help us prepare for what it might do in the future.” Scientists are trying to understand what makes the virus successful and some studies have shown that transmissibility was the most important feature at the beginning of the pandemic, more so than immune evasion. Studying successful variants tells only half the story. “Variants that do not become dominant are, in a way, negative controls,” said Mary Petrone, a genomic epidemiologist at the University of Sydney and an author of a new paper on the Mu variant. “They tell us what didn’t work, and, in doing so, help to fill in knowledge gaps around variant fitness.”

Around the World

Pandemic Hampers Global Efforts on Climate Change

After a gathering of leaders from almost 200 nations last fall in Scotland, there was some hope of a renewed global effort to halt climate change. At that gathering, rich nations agreed to spend more to help vulnerable countries adapt and the attendees pledged to “revisit and strengthen” their climate goals within a year—a much shorter timeline than usual (WaPo). But now, nearly six months after that meeting, no nation has come forward with an improved climate plan. “What we have seen so far is very, very little,” said Niklas Höhne, a German climatologist who created the Climate Action Tracker, which monitors the commitments and policies of countries, and has rated virtually all of them insufficient. John F. Kerry, President Biden’s international climate envoy, told the Washington Post: “I don’t see the evidence yet” that the world’s largest greenhouse gas polluters are gearing up to make new commitments ahead of the next U.N. summit this fall in Egypt, during a recent interview. “I don’t see the evidence that that is happening.” The ongoing coronavirus pandemic, which has contributed to rising inflation and energy costs, along with the war in Ukraine, have taken the attention of world leaders away from climate change.

Covid-19 Leading Cause of Maternal Deaths in Latin America, Says WHO

On Wednesday, a regional official of the World Health Organization said that Covid-19 was the leading cause of maternal deaths in parts of Latin America in 2021. “Pregnant women have a higher risk to develop severe cases of Covid-19,” said the official, Dr. Jarbas Barbosa. “For this reason, they should be vaccinated.” Dr. Barbosa, the assistant director of the Pan American Health Organization, the W.H.O.’s regional arm for the Western Hemisphere, urged governments to strengthen efforts to vaccinate pregnant women. He also encouraged doctors and nurses to “provide all the information to support the decision of these women to get vaccinated and to save their lives.” Dr. Barbosa said that using data provided by countries for the year 2021, Covid-19 was “one of the most important causes of maternal deaths” in Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Mexico, and Peru (NYT). 

U.S. Government & Politics

Democrats Skeptical Backlash on Draft Overturning of Roe Will Fuel Midterm Success

Politico reports that many Democratic figures are skeptical that a backlash to the seemingly likely overturning of Roe v. Wade’s protection of abortion rights, as suggested by Politico’s reporting of a leaked draft decision authored by Samuel Alito that would overturn the decision, will significantly improve Democratic chances in the midterm elections (Politico). Many instead fear the inflation related to the pandemic’s impact and other factors will play a much larger role. Politico notes that Democratic fundraising did not see a spike after the leaked decision, writing, “In the 23 hours after POLITICO reported a draft Supreme Court opinion that would overturn Roe v. Wade, ActBlue took in just $9 million — just a small uptick from the days prior,” adding, “The modest totals this week, based on a POLITICO analysis of the ActBlue donation tracker, are an early sign that Democrats can’t count on abortion to single-handedly turn around a midterm cycle that’s already trending badly for them.” Politico also interviewed a dozen Democratic pollsters and strategists on the question. One pollster, speaking anonymously, told Politico, that the issue “will help at the margins,” but added “to hold the House or Senate, we need inflation to go away.” Julie Roginsky, a Democratic strategist and previously a researcher at EMILY’s List told Politico, “Midterm voters care about affordability first and foremost, and they are not people who are worried every single day about losing access to abortion,” adding, “My fear continues to be that sometimes we as Democrats run on things that we wish the voters cared about, rather than what the voters do care about.” Democratic Pennsylvania Representative Susan Wild emphasized to Politico that candidates will need to run on both economic and inflation issues and abortion rights, saying, “If we can’t multitask, then we don’t belong in these jobs.”

Politico notes that “Polling on abortion is undoubtedly on Democrats’ side. Surveys of Americans routinely find overwhelming support for abortion rights: A POLITICO/Morning Consult poll conducted Tuesday after news of the draft opinion showed just 28 percent of voters want the court to overturn Roe, versus 50 percent who think the precedent should stand.” However, it adds that the strategists they interviewed cautioned that in prior polls Americans tended to doubt the court would overturn Roe. Bonus Read: “Do Americans Support Abortion Rights? Depends on the State,” (NYT).

Proposed NYC Rent Increase Sparks Criticism

Today, Thursday, New York City’s Rent Guidelines Board is set to hold an initial vote on a potentially massive rent increase for rent stabilized apartments in the city, a move that is drawing criticism (NYT). The New York Times writes, “The powerful Rent Guidelines Board, which the mayor controls, will take a preliminary vote on Thursday on proposed rent increases of 2.7 to 4.5 percent on one-year leases and 4.3 to 9 percent on two-year leases. A final vote is expected in June.” A 9% increase would be the steepest increase since 1990 and is drawing criticism especially as rents in the city surge following the elimination of the pandemic-era eviction moratorium. New York City Mayor Eric Adams, himself a landlord (though not of a rent stabilized property), has defended rent increases without specifying how much rent should rise. Adams stated, “We must be fair here — allow tenants to be able to stay in their living arrangements, but we need to look after those small mom-and-pop owners.” On the other hand, the Times writes, “Groups like the Working Families Party note that most rent-stabilized buildings are owned by large landlords, not small property owners. They point to a report by an urban planning professor at New York University that found that only about one-third of rent-regulated buildings were owned by landlords who had five buildings or fewer. The issue is part of a growing rift over housing between Mr. Adams and the City Council, where leaders have criticized the mayor’s focus on removing homeless encampments at a time when affordable housing is scarce.”

Jonathan Karl Tests Positive After White House Correspondents Dinner, Shook Hands with President, Sat Next to Kardashian

On Monday, Jonathan Karl, ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent, tested positive for Covid after having attended the White House Correspondents Dinner (Politico). During the dinner Karl shook hands with President Biden among others. Politico writes, “Karl received an award in the ‘Excellence in Presidential Coverage Under Deadline Pressure’ category for broadcast while at the dinner. He appeared on the dais, received his prize, shook hands with several others there, including Biden, and subsequently spoke at the microphone. Karl was also pictured at a table sitting next to Kardashian and one spot over from her boyfriend, Pete Davidson.” Politico notes that a person familiar with the matter stated that Karl “tested positive for COVID Monday night, but tested negative on Saturday afternoon before the White House Correspondents Dinner by medically-supervised staff.” The person added, “He had no symptoms on Saturday. Jon is currently isolating and participating in contract tracing.” Prior to the dinner there were concerns about the risk of Covid spread, and it was event the subject of a joke by Trevor Noah, the comedic host of the event: “It is my great honor to be speaking tonight at the nation’s most distinguished super-spreader event.”

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “American Consumers Are Shopping, Traveling and Working Out Like It’s 2019,” (WSJ).

Fed Raises Interest Rates by Half a Point, Largest Increase Since 2000

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve increased interest rates by half a point, its largest increase since 2000 (NYT, WSJ, WaPo). The move comes in an effort to respond to record inflation. The New York Times writes, “Wednesday’s move marked the Fed’s largest interest rate increase since 2000, and by shrinking its $9 trillion balance sheet at the same time, the Fed is rapidly withdrawing support from the economy. Together, the policies are likely to ricochet through markets and the economy as money becomes more expensive to borrow.” The Fed pointed to the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the pandemic in the decision, writing in a statement, “The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions.”

Shanghai Lockdown Generates Supply Chain Issues for U.S. Economy

The Wall Street Journal reports that China’s Covid lockdown in Shanghai has generated a new set of pandemic-related supply chain disruptions for the U.S. economy (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Apple Inc. said it could take a sales hit of as much as $8 billion in its current quarter, primarily because of the Shanghai lockdowns. Industrial giant Honeywell International Inc. said the Covid measures had curbed production at half of its Chinese plants. J.B. Hunt Transport Services Inc. said the freight carrier’s customers are worried about deliveries scheduled for July.” The outbreak in Shanghai had previously shut down factories tied to Tesla and Procter & Gamble. The Journal notes that China’s strict response to Covid outbreaks compared to many other countries has led to reverberations in China and out, writing, “Given China’s role as a key supplier to the world, the policy disparity has created an imbalance. Shanghai, a manufacturing and shipping hub of 25 million residents, accounted for 3.8% of China’s gross domestic product in 2021 and 7.2% of the country’s exports, according to Bank of America.” According to the Institute for Supply Management, the average time to receive production materials hit a record 100 days in April following the lockdown. 

Uber’s Revenue Doubles, But Stock Still Falls

On Wednesday, Uber reported strong growth, citing numbers showing that its revenue more than doubled in the first quarter of 2022 (WSJ, NYT). The New York Times writes, “The company reported $6.9 billion in revenue for the first three months of 2022, outstripping analysts’ expectations and skyrocketing 136 percent compared with revenue from the same time last year, when Covid vaccines were scarce and people were not traveling as much. Uber also said it logged 1.7 billion trips during the quarter and had 115 million people using its platform each month, an 18 percent and 17 percent increase, respectively, year over year.” Dara Khosrowshahi, Uber’s CEO, told investors, “as people have returned to offices, restaurants, pubs, stadiums and airports around the world, they’ve returned to Uber.”

Even so, Uber’s stock fell 11% in Wednesday morning trading, with the Journal pointing to the impact of a weaker than expected quarterly report from Uber’s competitor Lyft. The Journal writes, “Lyft spooked investors with a weaker-than-expected adjusted earnings forecast Tuesday. Its shares tumbled more than 35% early Wednesday, marking its biggest percentage decline since it went public in 2019. The company said it would spend more to motivate drivers to return to its platform and those costs would weigh on its bottom line in the current quarter.”

U.S. Trade Deficit Hits Record $109.8 Billion

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade deficit widened to a record seasonally adjusted $109.8 billion, representing an increase of 22.3% in March compared to February (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal points to the role of “Inflation, supply imbalances and strong demand for imported goods” in driving the increase. The Journal notes, “Imports rose by 10.3% to $351.5 billion as the U.S. took in far more goods than it exported. In March, the gridlock at U.S. ports eased, alleviating supply-chain congestion that has disrupted trade during the pandemic and freeing up more goods for store shelves. Exports also rose a robust 5.6% in March on higher shipments of industrial supplies and as more travelers came to the U.S. for vacation.”

Bonus Read: “Moderna Revenue Triples on Soaring Covid-19 Vaccine Sales, (WSJ). 

U.S. Society

A Post-Pandemic Cat Business Boom

The Wall Street Journal reports that spending on cats, traditionally a lesser component of spending on pets, has been booming in the wake of the pandemic (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The cat business is booming, with owners willing to spend on new services and petsitters raising their hands. While the cat has long been considered a low-maintenance pet, the economy emerging postpandemic is challenging that notion as grooming and sitting for cats become more widespread. Cat owners are willing to pay for services from daycare to baths and exercise, to social stimulation and even a little time at the spa.” Jacque Opp, owner of the North Dakota based Pet Agree Mobile Grooming LLC told the Journal, “Cats are where it’s at—it’s a niche industry, and there’s a gajillion dog groomers everywhere.” The Journal notes, “The number of catsitting visits recorded by Time to Pet, a petsitting software company, is 51.2% higher so far in 2022 than in the same period in 2019.” Pandemic era savings and pent-up travel demand due to the pandemic have both contributed to the rise of the cat industry.

Analysis & Arguments

Juliette Kayyem argues that Biden is right-sizing the Covid crisis response (Atlantic).

Alex N. Press reports on unionization efforts at coffee shops other than Starbucks (Jacobin), and E. Tammy Kim reports on the Amazon campaign against unionization at a second Staten Island warehouse (New Yorker).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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