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January 11, 2022 - Brief Issue 273

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Shatters Global Record with 1.35 Million Cases in a Day as Essential Services Feel the Strain (Health & Science)

U.S. Resumes Sending States Monoclonal Antibodies That May Not Work Against Omicron (Health & Science)

Protests Against Covid Restrictions in Belgium and Germany (Around the World)

Hungary Sees Low Vaccination Rate, High Death Rate (Around the World)

Boris Johnson Mulls Shortening Isolation Period (Around the World)

Uganda Reopens Schools (Around the World)

Novak Djokovic Released From Detention in Australia; Omicron Surges (Around the World)

Democrats Avoid Shutdowns Amid Omicron Surge (U.S. Government & Politics)

Treasury Warns of “Enormous Challenges” for Tax Filing Season (U.S. Government & Politics)

Concerned About Spread, Congress Updates its Health Protocols; AOC, Other Members Test Positive Amid National Case Surge (U.S. Government & Politics)

White House Allies Split Over Inflation’s Cause as Biden Blames Corporate Greed (U.S. Economy)

Omicron’s Spread Disrupts Manufacturing (U.S. Economy)

60,000 Missing Births Amid Pandemic (U.S. Society)

Covid Testing Misinformation Spreads (U.S. Society)

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Bounce Back in 2021 After a Pandemic Fall (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 61,558,507 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 839,500 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 520,166,098 vaccine doses, with 74.4% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 62.6% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 86.4% have received at least one dose, and 73.3% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 36.5% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 310,645,175 cases of coronavirus, with 5,497,215 deaths.

U.S. Shatters Global Record with 1.35 Million Cases in a Day as Essential Services Feel the Strain

The United States reported 1.35 million new infections on Monday, the highest daily total for any country (Reuters). The number of hospitalizations is also expected to reach a record high as soon as today, with Monday’s total of 141,385 people hospitalized, just short of the record 142,273 set on Jan. 14, 2021 during the previous peak (WaPo). The seven-day average for new cases has tripled in two weeks to over 700,000 new infections a day. The more transmissible Omicron variant is to blame for the increase in cases and while it is potentially less severe, the sheer number of cases is putting strain on hospitals around the country. And as healthcare workers across the country are calling in sick or being forced to isolate due to Covid-19, many hospitals are being forced to cut capacity (WSJ). The surge in cases has also disrupted schools, public transport and air travel, and essential services like emergency response. 

U.S. Resumes Sending States Monoclonal Antibodies That May Not Work Against Omicron

The federal government has started sending all three monoclonal antibody treatments authorized for use in treating early-stage Covid-19 to states despite evidence that two of those treatments might not be effective against the Omicron variant (WaPo). Physicians and health experts have mixed reactions to the treatments, with many concerned that the costly infusions will be useless. It is currently difficult for doctors to determine whether their patients are infected with the Omicron variant or the previously dominant Delta variant, which complicates treatment decisions. It’s also difficult to explain the situation to patients who have heard how effective the therapies are, which raises ethical questions. “Is it ethical and practical to give those treatments to people who you think almost certainly have omicron?” said Jeanne Marrazzo, director of infectious diseases at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. “Most patients are demanding something.” Bonus Read: “Four charts that analyze how omicron’s wave compares to previous coronavirus peaks,” (WaPo). 

Around the World

Europe

Protests Against Covid Restrictions in Belgium and Germany 

On Sunday thousands of protesters gathered in Brussels in opposition to ongoing coronavirus restrictions, calling for “liberty” and “freedom” (Politico). The estimated 25,000 people gathered want the government to abandon the COVID certificate requirement for gaining access to various places and against mass vaccination programs. Belgian officials did refrain from imposing new measures last week, even as Prime Minister Alexander De Croo warned that “the coming weeks will be difficult” and anticipated seeing new record levels of infections: “The numbers are on the rise and the situation will get worse before it gets better.” 

In Germany, tens of thousands of people protested against restrictions throughout the country on Monday (NYT). The anti-vaccination movement has ties to the far right and after restrictions shut the unvaccinated out of much of public life, protests on Mondays have become a recurring occurrence. Monday as a day of protest became popular when Germany was divided and weekly demonstration walks are credited with helping to bring down the Berlin Wall in 1989. Last Monday, in the state of Baden-Württemberg, some 50,000 people took part in 170 marches, according to the New York Times. Recently elected chancellor, Olaf Scholz, asked Germans to respect the restrictions and to get inoculated; the government has postponed discussions about making vaccinations mandatory nationwide.

Hungary Sees Low Vaccination Rate, High Death Rate

Hungary’s death rate currently ranks among the top 10 worst in the world as vaccine skepticism and distrust of the government has hampered the country’s vaccination campaign. It’s a stark reversal from earlier in the pandemic; Hungary led the way for inoculations in Europe early last year using Russia’s Sputnik vaccine and the Sinopharm vaccine from China (NYT). The prime minister of Hungary, Viktor Orban, was outspoken in his criticism of the European Union’s slow immunization campaign. “It cannot be that Hungarian people are dying because vaccine procurement in Brussels is slow,” Mr. Orban said in January 2021. “This is simply unacceptable,” he added. But the prime minister did not develop public health policies to curb the spread of the virus and the decision to use vaccines that were not approved by E.U. medicine regulators created distrust with the public. 

Boris Johnson Mulls Shortening Isolation Period

Prime Minister Boris Johnson said the U.K. government is considering shortening the isolation period for people who are fully vaccinated and then test positive to just five days (Politico). Last month, the isolation period was cut from 10 to seven days as long as the infected individual tests negative on the sixth and seventh days. Some cabinet ministers have pushed for the isolation period to be shortened to help relieve labor shortages due to staff absences. 

Africa

Uganda Reopens Schools 

On Monday students in Uganda were finally allowed to return to class after what is reported to be the longest pandemic-related shutdown in the world (NYT). More than half of Uganda’s students effectively stopped learning even in spite of attempts at remote instruction and educators say the long closure will have a lasting impact on gains made in the classroom. “The damage is extremely big,” said Mary Goretti Nakabugo, the executive director of Uwezo Uganda, a Uganda-based nonprofit organization that conducts educational research. Unless there are intensive efforts to help students catch up, she said, “we may have lost a generation.”

Australia

Novak Djokovic Released From Detention in Australia; Omicron Surges 

On Monday a judge ordered that Serbian tennis player Novack Djokovic be released from detention, refusing to accept the Australian government’s cancellation of his visa (WSJ). Last week, authorities canceled Djokovic’s visa on the grounds that he wasn’t exempt from rules that require travelers to Australia to be fully vaccinated against Covid-19. “I’m pleased and grateful that the Judge overturned my visa cancellation,” Djokovic posted on social media. “Despite all that has happened, I want to stay and try to compete at the Australian Open.” Djokovic has said that he doesn’t want to be vaccinated and had obtained a medical exemption to enter Australia in spite of their rules on inoculation (NYT). He was then detained by border authorities who also cancelled his visa. 

Meanwhile, Omicron is sweeping through the country and infections reached record levels on Tuesday (Reuters). Hospitals across Australia are swamped and short-staffed due to many staff members isolating after being exposed or testing positive themselves. Australia has reported 1.1 million cases since the pandemic began but more than half of those cases occurred in the last two weeks. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Democrats Avoid Shutdowns Amid Omicron Surge

As Omicron surges, Democrats across the United States are turning away from shutdowns as a pandemic response and instead urging people to get vaccinated and continue their lives (Politico). Politico writes, “From New York to California, Democratic mayors and governors are fighting to keep schools and businesses open with an urgency they haven’t flexed before in the pandemic.” In Chicago, Democratic Mayor Lori Lightfoot has strongly criticized teachers for not returning to classrooms amid a dispute between the city and the teacher’s union, saying, “Enough is enough. We are standing firm.” Politico notes other examples, writing, “In California, Gov. Gavin Newsom and Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti swear the Super Bowl will go on in L.A. even as Covid-19 cases surge. Colorado Gov. Jared Polis has declared 'the end of the medical emergency' and said unvaccinated people have themselves to blame if they get sick. Even President Joe Biden urged Americans not to cancel their holiday travel plans last month.” During past surges, Democrats showed more willingness to shut down parts of the economy than Republicans did, helping make shutdowns an important political cleavage in national and state politics. Bonus Read: “Chicago’s public schools cancel Monday’s classes,” (NYT).

Treasury Warns of “Enormous Challenges” for Tax Filing Season

On Monday, Treasury Department officials said that the IRS will face “enormous challenges” during tax filing season (WaPo). The officials cited the impact of the pandemic, budget cuts, and added responsibilities related to stimulus efforts. The Washington Post notes, “The IRS closed last filing season with more than 35 million unprocessed returns — a fourfold increase from the last year before the pandemic.” The officials warned that the challenges could result in delays to processing and refunds.

Concerned About Spread, Congress Updates its Health Protocols; AOC, Other Members Test Positive Amid National Case Surge

Congress is expanding its health protocols amid concern about increased spread of Covid within Congress, according to a CNN report on Monday (CNN). CNN writes, “The Office of the Attending Physician said that the percentage of positive Covid-19 tests at the Capitol's testing center had increased from under 1% to more than 13%, according to a memo sent to congressional offices last week and obtained by CNN. Meanwhile, nearly two dozen lawmakers have publicly announced breakthrough cases over the past month.” In the memo, Dr. Brian Monahan, the Capitol's attending physician, wrote, “These variant viruses have caused an unprecedented number of cases in the Capitol community affecting hundreds of individuals.” In a letter to members, Democratic Majority Leader Steny Hoyer wrote that the House “will be taking steps to lengthen voting times and limit the number of votes taken on the Floor.” He also provided a reminder of the masking requirement and discouraged the congregation of members for long periods.

On Sunday, Alexandria Ocasio Cortez’s office announced that the progressive New York representative and prominent “squad” member tested positive for Covid (NBC, CBS). In a statement, her office said, “She is experiencing symptoms and recovering at home,” adding, “The Congresswoman received her booster this fall and encourages everyone to get their booster and follow CDC guidelines.” The test comes amid a national surge in cases as a result of Omicron, and NBC writes, “Numerous members of Congress have said they had contracted Covid in recent weeks, including three who announced over the weekend that they received positive tests: Reps. Jim Cooper, D-Tenn., Sean Casten, D-Ill., and Young Kim, R-Calif.”

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “When You’re Burned Out at Your Job, But It’s Also Your Calling,” (WSJ).

White House Allies Split Over Inflation’s Cause as Biden Blames Corporate Greed

The Washington Post reports that Biden has emphasized corporate greed and monopoly power as causes of recent inflation, but his allies and advisers within and outside the administration are split on its and other factors’ roles in recent inflation (WaPo). The Post writes, “In recent weeks, the White House has amplified its case that price increases for gasoline and meat are connected to corporate consolidation and greed, castigating meatpackers, gas companies, and other firms for passing higher prices onto consumers. The push follows the private warnings of several Democratic pollsters who told the White House several months ago that the administration needed a new approach to countering Republican attacks over rising inflation.” However, the Post notes that senior treasury officials “have been unsettled by the White House’s attempts to blame some large corporations for inflation, skeptical of that explanation for the recent rise in prices, according to four people with knowledge of internal administration dynamics.” The Post writes that some of these officials are generally friendly to the administration’s broader anti-trust efforts. Bonus Read: “Fed’s Powell pumped trillions into the economy. Now, he may be the party killer,” (Politico).

Omicron’s Spread Disrupts Manufacturing

The Wall Street Journal reports that the spread of the Omicron variant among factory workers is adding to already existing manufacturing and supply disruptions (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Mounting absences among Covid-infected workers are bringing masks back to some factory floors, executives said, while manufacturers shuttle available workers to jobs and plants where they are most needed. Companies are also redoubling recruiting efforts to fortify workforces already worn thin by high turnover in a tight job market.” The speed of the spread has surprised many executives, tempering what had been an optimistic view heading into 2022. The Journal notes, “The surge in Covid-19 absenteeism threatens to deepen problems of supply-chain and transportation bottlenecks and delayed deliveries. A stretch of depleted workforces and lower production volumes also could fuel further cost increases and drive consumer inflation. Already, domestically made material input costs for manufacturers have grown at the fastest rate since the 1970s, up nearly 30% in November from a year earlier, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.”

U.S. Society

60,000 Missing Births Amid Pandemic

The Washington Post reports that amid the pandemic, many Americans chose to delay or avoid pregnancy with the result of 60,000 missing births compared to what would otherwise have been expected (WaPo). The Post writes, “A recent Brookings Institution study shows 60,000 fewer births than expected between October 2020 and February 2021 in the United States, corresponding with fewer conceptions earlier in 2020. The largest number of missing births were in January 2021, which roughly corresponds to conceptions in April 2020, when many Americans began to process the magnitude of the pandemic.” Phillip Levine, a professor of economics at Wellesley College who co-authored the report, told the Post, “Uncertainty is not good for fertility,” adding, “you want to know that when you’re bringing a child into the world, you’re going to be bringing the child into an environment that’s safe and secure, and if you can’t forecast that, that’s when things will be, ‘Maybe now is not the right time.’” The effects were not distributed evenly across the United States. The Post writes, “The study found that the decline was not the same across the board. Births fell 3.7 percent on average across states, but in states such as New York, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Delaware, the dip was much sharper. Births to residents of New York City, which was hit particularly hard early in the pandemic, saw a 23.4 percent decline nine months later, the researchers estimated. States with larger spikes in unemployment rates early in the pandemic tended to have larger decreases in birth rates nine months later, as did states with more covid cases per capita, the study found.” The Post also spoke with Kat Athanasiades, who planned to have a second child with her husband in March or April 2020. She told the Post, “We were isolating,” adding, “so we didn’t have any support at all. We furloughed our nanny, so it was my husband and I doing all the care for an active 18-month-old. Putting our daughter to bed one night, I said, ‘I don’t think we can have another right now. ... I don’t think I can do it when I’m so uncertain of what our future’s going to look like.’”

Covid Testing Misinformation Spreads

The New York Times reports that misinformation about Covid testing is spiking alongside rising cases of the Omicron variant (NYT). The Times writes, “Misinformation about Covid-19 tests has spiked across social media in recent weeks, researchers say, as coronavirus cases have surged again worldwide because of the highly infectious Omicron variant.” The Times adds, “The categories include falsehoods that P.C.R. tests don’t work; that the counts for flu and Covid-19 cases have been combined; that P.C.R. tests are vaccines in disguise; and that at-home rapid tests have a predetermined result or are unreliable because different liquids can turn them positive. These themes jumped into the thousands of mentions in the last three months of 2021, compared with just a few dozen in the same time period in 2020, according to Zignal Labs, which tracks mentions on social media, on cable television and in print and online outlets.” Actual challenges with testing have complicated efforts to limit misinformation. The Times writes, “No medical test is perfect, and legitimate questions about the accuracy of Covid-19 tests have abounded throughout the pandemic. There has always been a risk of a false positive or a false negative result. The Food and Drug Administration says there is a potential for antigen tests to return false positive results when users do not follow the instructions. Those tests are generally accurate when used correctly but in some cases can appear to show a positive result when exposed to other liquids, said Dr. Glenn Patriquin, who published a study about false positives in antigen tests using various liquids in a publication of the American Society for Microbiology.” In addition to the standard vagaries of testing, there have been specific issues with some products, for example the Times notes that Ellume, an Australian company, recalled millions of its testing products.

U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Bounce Back in 2021 After a Pandemic Fall

U.S. greenhouse gas emissions surged in 2021, bouncing back after reductions as a result of the pandemic’s impact on the economy (WaPo, NYT). The Washington Post writes, “A 17 percent surge in coal-fired electricity helped drive an overall increase of 6.2 percent in greenhouse gas emissions compared with the previous year, according to an analysis published Monday by the Rhodium Group. While emissions remained below pre-pandemic levels, it marked the first annual increase in reliance on the nation’s dirtiest fossil fuel since 2014, the independent research firm said.” In 2020, the pandemic helped drive a ten percent fall in emissions. Kate Larsen, a partner at the Rhodium Group, noted that the already sharp rebound may be tempered by the ongoing pandemic, saying, “If anything, last year’s rebound in emissions was lower than it could have been because the pandemic is still causing disruptions and the economy isn’t back to normal.” Though tied to the economic recovery, the rising emissions are also a warning sign and point to the difficulty for the United States of even meeting Biden’s promised commitment of getting emissions to 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. Bonus Read: “2021 Was Earth’s Fifth-Hottest Year, Scientists Say,” (NYT).

Analysis & Arguments

Karen Heller writes on the invention of the swab, 99 years ago (WaPo).

Derek Thompson writes on how Omicron is dividing the vaccinated, and leading some to say they are done with pandemic-era limits (Atlantic).

Jim Geraghty writes that Omicron hasn’t proven apocalyptic for the U.S., but is generating substantial disruptions (National Review).

Craig Spencer writes that as an ER doctor, he fears health care collapse more than Omicron itself (NYT).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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