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June 22, 2022 - Brief Issue 339

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

In U.S., Despite Wave of Cases, Deaths Stay Low (Health & Science)

U.S. Rolls Out Vaccines for Children Under 5 (Health & Science)

Expert Panel Calls for Overhaul of U.S. Public Healthcare System; Universal Healthcare Could Have Saved 338,000 U.S. Lives, Says Study (Health & Science)

U.N. Conference Moves to Canada Due to China’s Covid Restrictions (Around the World)

Lockdown in Macau Strands Casino Guests (Around the World)

Covid Surges in Europe (Around the World)

White House Views Covid Response as Largely Successful, But Concerned it Can’t Benefit from Credit (U.S. Government & Politics)

Biden Says Close to Deal on a Federal Gas Tax Holiday (U.S. Government & Politics)

Existing Home Prices Hit Record High (U.S. Economy)

WSJ Survey Shows Surge in Economists Predicting Recession (U.S. Economy)

Determining the Extent of Restaurant Closures During the Pandemic is Difficult (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 86,456,273 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,014,040 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 592,269,252 vaccine doses, with 78.1% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.8% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.5% have received at least one dose, and 76.8% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 47.2% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 25.3% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 540,643,457 cases of coronavirus, with 6,322,412 deaths.

In U.S., Despite Wave of Cases, Deaths Stay Low

For the past two years, if coronavirus cases climbed, then deaths followed a few weeks later. But that pattern seems to be changing: nearly three months since new Omicron variants launched a surge in cases, Covid deaths remain close to their lowest rate of the pandemic. Epidemiologists say that the spread of the virus and the number of deaths following it have diverged more than ever before, likely because so many Americans have some sort of immunity now (NYT). “In previous waves, there were still substantial pockets of people who had not been vaccinated or exposed to the virus, and so were at the same risk of dying as people at the beginning of the pandemic,” said Dr. David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. “Those pockets don’t exist anymore.”

U.S. Rolls Out Vaccines for Children Under 5

Starting Tuesday, healthcare workers across the country began administering coronavirus vaccines to children six months to five years old—a major milestone in the pandemic (NYT). At a news conference at the White House on Tuesday, President Biden said, “The United States is now the first country in the world to offer safe and effective Covid-19 vaccines for children as young as 6 months old.” The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has endorsed a three-dose vaccine from Pfizer-BioNTech for the youngest age group and also a two-dose regimen from Moderna (WaPo). Bonus Reads: “Here’s how the doses of the two vaccines for young children differ.” (NYT); “FAQ: How to get the pediatric coronavirus vaccine in the D.C. area,” (WaPo).

Expert Panel Calls for Overhaul of U.S. Public Healthcare System; Universal Healthcare Could Have Saved 338,000 U.S. Lives, Says Study

On Tuesday a bipartisan panel of health experts called for an overhaul of the American healthcare system that would set minimum health standards and coordinate nearly 3,000 state, local, and tribal agencies. The panel, the Commonwealth Fund Commission on a National Public Health System, described the inadequacies of the U.S. response to the pandemic. The panel also raised other health risks, like drug overdoses, diabetes, and maternal mortality, that would be better mitigated by the creation of a new “national public health system” (NYT). Dr. Julie L. Gerberding, a member of the panel, who served as C.D.C. director in President George W. Bush’s administration, said the pandemic had “taught us that we have to have a coordinated, integrated public health network that functions — and the only way that we can bring that together is by having a national approach.”

The panel’s recommendation comes alongside a new study that says the more than 1 million people who died from Covid-19 in the U.S. were left vulnerable in part because of the country’s “fragmented and inefficient healthcare system.” The study was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. “The current healthcare system in the US is economically inefficient and leaves millions of Americans without adequate access to medical treatment,” said Alison Galvani, director of the Center for Infectious Disease Modeling and Analysis at the Yale School of Public Health and the lead author of the study (Guardian). According to the authors’ calculations, the U.S. could have saved more than 338,000 lives and more than $105 billion in healthcare costs if the country had a universal healthcare system. The U.S. is one of the only wealthy countries without universal healthcare and spends almost twice as much on healthcare per capita as other wealthy nations, according to Kaiser Family Foundation data. The study’s authors recommend the country adopt Medicare for All, a single-payer healthcare program, that would “facilitate recovery from the ongoing crisis and bolster pandemic preparedness, as well as safeguard well-being and prosperity more broadly.”

Around the World

Bonus Read: “Airports Around the World Battle Long Lines, Canceled Flights,” (WSJ).

U.N. Conference Moves to Canada Due to China’s Covid Restrictions

China had been scheduled to host a major United Nations conference on biodiversity that has been pushed back four times because of Covid restrictions, but now the conference will be relocated to Montreal, Canada and held in December (WSJ). The Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, made the announcement that the conference, known as COP15, would not be held in China due to the country’s strict restrictions. Environmentalists have been frustrated by the delay in holding the conference as it is widely expected to produce a global accord on protecting plants, animals, and ecosystems. The relocation of the conference is a blow to China’s efforts at diplomacy.

Lockdown in Macau Strands Casino Guests

Hundreds of guests at a casino in Macau, the Hotel Fortuna, were stranded as China enforced a lockdown in the gambling hub. After months of almost zero cases, dozens of infections have been reported in the semi autonomous city. Pandemic restrictions have prevented many tourists from visiting the city and have severely hindered gambling revenue in the city (WSJ). Hotel Fortuna’s 342 rooms were placed under lockdown on Tuesday along with 11 other locations across the city. People cannot leave and must test every day for seven days. Macau authorities said they are opening 53 testing centers across the city to conduct rapid tests for all residents over two days. 

Covid Surges in Europe

Multiple European countries are seeing a rise in Covid case numbers. Experts worry that with many countries having lifted virtually all restrictions, low booster uptakes among those over 60 years of age, and the return of cross-border travel, this summer could see many countries facing overtaxed hospitals and excess deaths. The variants driving the rising case numbers, BA.4 and BA.5, have already led to excess deaths in Portugal while France has seen a rise in hospital and intensive care admissions (Guardian). However, the rise in hospital admissions along with rising case numbers is not uniform across the continent. Italy and Greece have both seen a surge in case numbers but hospital admission rates still remain low.

U.S. Government & Politics

White House Views Covid Response as Largely Successful, But Concerned it Can’t Benefit from Credit

Politico reports that key figures within the Biden administration view Biden’s response to the pandemic as successful, but fear that the administration cannot leverage that perceived success for political benefit (Politico). Politico writes, “The White House believes it’s finally got the Covid crisis under control. But it may be too late to claim any of the credit.” One senior Biden official told Politico, “We have certainly tamed this, no question,” adding, “And it’s of no benefit.” Celinda Lake, a leading pollster for Biden during the 2020 election, told Politico, “People grant him some real successes on Covid,” adding, “But Americans are very fleeting in their attention span.” Politico notes that inflation and abortion rights are currently dominating the political news, undermining efforts to benefit from perceptions of a successful pandemic response.

Biden Says Close to Deal on a Federal Gas Tax Holiday

Amid record inflation and rising political concerns specifically about the impact of high gas prices, President Biden has signaled he is closing in on a decision to provide a federal gas tax holiday (WSJ). On Monday, Biden told reporters, “I hope to have a decision based on the data I’m looking for by the end of the week.” The Wall Street Journal writes, “Gas prices started increasing last year and surged following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, which disrupted the global oil market. The average cost of a gallon of unleaded fuel in the U.S. hit $4.98 on Monday, according to AAA. That is up from about $3 a year ago. Any suspension in the federal gas tax of 18.4 cents a gallon would require action from Congress. So far, Democratic-led efforts to temporarily pause collecting the tax have failed to gain traction.”

Bonus Reads: “Floridians give DeSantis points for his covid stance. Will it hold?,” (WaPo); “Will Kathy Hochul’s Low-Key Primary Come at a Cost? Allies Fear Yes,” (NYT).

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “Stock Market Jumps After S&P 500’s Worst Week in Two Years,” (WSJ).

Existing Home Prices Hit Record High

The median price for an existing U.S. home hit $407,600 in May, a record high (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Sales of previously owned homes slid for a fourth straight month, declining 3.4% in May from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.41 million, the weakest rate since June 2020, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. May sales fell 8.6% from a year earlier. Home-buying demand continues to exceed supply, buoying home prices to new highs. The median existing-home price rose 14.8% in May from a year earlier to $407,600, a record in data going back to 1999, NAR said.” Lawrence Yun, chief economist for NAR, noted that sales will likely continue to fall, and added, “The impact of higher mortgage rates have not been fully reflected in the data.” The Wall Street Journal reports, “Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 3.6% monthly decline in sales of previously owned homes, which make up most of the housing market.”

WSJ Survey Shows Surge in Economists Predicting Recession

The Wall Street Journal reports that its survey of economists found that the percentage predicting a recession in the next 12 months surged to 44% in May from 28% in April and 18% in January (WSJ). The Journal describes the survey result as “a level usually seen only on the brink of or during actual recession,” and points to the role of inflation in shaping economists’ perceptions. The Journal writes, “Since the Journal began asking the question in mid-2005, a 44% recession probability is seldom seen outside of an actual recession. In December 2007, the month that the 2007-to-2009 recession began, economists assigned a 38% probability. In February 2020, when the last recession began, they assigned a 26% probability.” The Journal adds, “Forecasters have raised recession probability due to a number of factors: higher borrowing costs, a blistering pace of inflation, supply-chain problems and commodity-price shocks stemming from the war in Ukraine. Mostly, however, they see dimming chances that a steeper path of rate increases by the Fed can cool inflation without inducing higher unemployment and an economic downturn.” Bonus Read: “How to Keep Your Job, or Find a Better One, if There’s a Recession,” (WSJ).

Bonus Read: “Firms Warn of China Shipment Delays as U.S. Bans Xinjiang Imports,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Determining the Extent of Restaurant Closures During the Pandemic is Difficult

The Washington Post reports on the difficulties of trying to determine how many restaurants closed during the pandemic, and thus to what extent the industry is now recovering (WaPo). The Post notes that early predictions were dire, but adds, “The number of closed establishments to date is a fraction of those early dire predictions, which were based largely on fears or a small-business survey with acknowledged flaws or just educated guesses,” further noting that the exact “number is difficult to nail down.” One measure comes from the National Restaurant Association (NRA), which reported 90,000 closed restaurants by the Spring of 2021. However, the Post writes, “That number has not been updated in more than a year, in large part because the NRA believes that, more than two years into the public health crisis, current restaurant closures may not be a result solely of the pandemic.” The Post also notes that the 90,000 number, developed via surveys, was already a lowered estimate because the NRA assessed that “many of those temporarily closed restaurants reopened.” The Post adds, “The flaws with the NRA’s methodology, as least the parts shared with The Post, are not unique to this trade association and its email surveys, say economists and analysts. The response rate was small. The respondents were self-selected, not randomly sampled. The email lists may not have reflected the makeup of the industry at large.” The Post also writes, “Another way to determine the number of shuttered restaurants over any given time is to review Business Employment Dynamics (BED) statistics, which are compiled from the BLS’s quarterly employment and wage census.” However, the Post cautions, “But those numbers don’t account for the normal, annual churn of closures. From 2011 to 2019, according to BED data, an average of more than 81,000 food and drink establishments closed every year. If you subtract that average from 159,000, you get nearly 78,000 additional closures in 2020.” The limits of the data have made it difficult to assess the current state of the industry.

Analysis & Arguments

Ezra Klein interviews Lekshmi Santhosh on the state of knowledge around long Covid (NYT).

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