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January 19, 2022 - Brief Issue 276

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Global Shift Towards Living with the Virus as Fauci Says Covid Will Become Endemic (Health & Science)

Federal Testing Website Quietly Goes Live a Day Early (Health & Science)

Pfizer’s Covid Pill Works on Omicron (Health & Science)

Study: Omicron Might Cut Severity of the Pandemic (Health & Science)

Moderna Hopes to Market Combined Covid and Flu Shot (Health & Science)

Tonga’s Next Battle: A “Tsunami” of Covid (Around the World)

Australia Records its Deadliest Day of Covid (Around the World)

Israel Struggles to Vaccinate Kids (Around the World)

Japan Places 13 Prefectures Under Quasi-State of Emergency (Around the World)

Hong Kong To Cull Thousands of Hamsters After Covid Outbreak at Pet Shop (Around the World)

Biden Struggles to Deliver on Some Pandemic Priorities; Republicans Look to Hit Biden on Pandemic Handling, a Risky Message; Democrats Worry About Electoral Impact of Other Unfulfilled Health Care Promises (U.S. Government & Politics)

Detainees Sue Arkansas Jail, Alleging They Were Unknowingly Given Ivermectin (U.S. Government & Politics)

NYC Mayor Eric Adams Says City “Winning” Against Omicron (U.S. Government & Politics)

Arizona and Texas Recover All Pandemic Era Job Losses (U.S. Economy)

WSJ Survey: Experts Downgrade U.S. Growth Outlook Citing Omicron, Supply Chain Issues, and Inflation (U.S. Economy)

Rapid Tests Pose Challenges for Blind People (U.S. Society)

Increased At Home Testing Brings False Negatives and Worry (U.S. Society)

DC Libraries Take Up a Key Role in Test Distribution, Librarians Feel Overwhelmed (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 67,598,609 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 854,076 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 529,266,561 vaccine doses, with 75.1% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 63% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 87% have received at least one dose, and 73.6% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 38.7% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 334,469,574 cases of coronavirus, with 5,557,255 deaths.

Global Shift Towards Living with the Virus as Fauci Says Covid Will Become Endemic

Most countries around the world are making a shift in their coronavirus pandemic response and are no longer trying to eradicate the virus. Instead, many are just hoping to find a new normal and live with the virus. Few countries outside of China still take a “zero-covid” approach. And while the thought of moving forward is welcomed by people exhausted by the disruptions of the pandemic, some disease experts worry that it’s too soon to abandon all restrictions (WaPo). Virologist Angela Rasmussen of the University of Saskatchewan fears that authorities are relaxing precautions prematurely: “I understand the temptation to say, ‘I give up, it’s too much.’ Two years is a lot. Everybody’s sick of it. I hate this. But it doesn’t mean actually the game is lost.” Scientists worry that the seemingly less-severe Omicron variant has lulled world leaders into a false sense of security when it’s still unclear how long Omicron-induced immunity lasts or what other mutations could be lurking under the surface. And while leaders in many countries are trying to follow the science, the political capital for sweeping restrictions or lockdowns is dwindling. 

The global shift mirrors U.S. public officials’ predictions that the pandemic won’t end with the elimination of the virus but that a less dangerous strain of the virus will become endemic (NPR, CNN). Top infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci said Omicron could be that variant, “but that would only be the case if we don't get another variant that eludes the immune response to the prior variant." Fauci told the Davos Agenda, a virtual event this week held by the World Economic Forum, "It is an open question as to whether or not Omicron is going to be the live virus vaccination that everyone is hoping for because you have such a great deal of variability with new variants emerging." Omicron’s wave may be cresting in the U.S., particularly in the northeast, with the number of covid patients is at a record high. The U.S. is averaging over 790,000 new daily cases, and deaths now exceed 1,900 a day, an increase of 54% in the past two weeks (NYT). 

Federal Testing Website Quietly Goes Live a Day Early

On Tuesday, a federal website designed to enable Americans to order free rapid tests from the federal government went live, a day prior to its planned official launch (WaPo). The Washington Post writes, “The website, covidtests.gov, is operating at limited capacity Tuesday to ensure a smooth launch Wednesday, a White House official said.” The official added, “This is standard practice to address troubleshooting and ensure as smooth an official launch tomorrow as possible.” The website will go fully live this morning, according to the official, enabling people to order tests, which will likely arrive in 7 to 12 days after ordering, according to the White House. More than one million visitors were on the home page and ordering tests at one point Tuesday evening (NYT).

Pfizer’s Covid Pill Works on Omicron

Pfizer said on Tuesday that it’s drug, Paxlovid, was effective against the Omicron variant in laboratory tests. The drug’s main component, nirmatrelvir, worked in three separate laboratory studies, but the research has not been peer-reviewed (WSJ). “These data suggest that our oral Covid-19 therapy can be an important and effective tool in our continued battle against this devastating virus and current variants of concern, including the highly transmissible Omicron,” said Mikael Dolsten, Pfizer’s chief scientific officer. The U.S. Food and Drug Administration authorized Paxlovid for use in people at high risk of severe Covid-19. Patients take two tablets of nirmatrelvir and one tablet of another antiviral drug, ritonavir, twice a day for five days. 

Study: Omicron Might Cut Severity of the Pandemic

New research from South Africa-based scientists hypothesizes that a strong wave of coronavirus infections with the Omicron variant could hasten the end of the pandemic because it causes less severe illness and provides protection against the Delta variant. Alex Sigal of the Africa Health Research Institute led the study, which used samples from 23 people infected with Omicron in November and December. The researchers found that those who previously caught the Delta variant could still contract the Omicron variant, but not vice versa (Bloomberg). “The implications of such displacement would depend on whether omicron is indeed less pathogenic than delta,” the researchers said. “If so, then the incidence of Covid-19 severe disease would be reduced and the infection may shift to become less disruptive to individuals and society.” 

Moderna Hopes to Market Combined Covid and Flu Shot

Moderna’s COE Stéphane Bancel said on Monday that the company is hoping to market a combined booster vaccination for Covid-19, influenza, and RSV – a common respiratory virus – as soon as the fall of 2021 (Politico). "Our goal is to be able to have a single annual booster so that we don't have compliance issues where people don't want to get two to three shots a winter," said Bancel. "The best-case scenario would be the fall of 2023." The Covid booster is currently in phase three trials and the flu vaccine, which would also use mRNA technology, is expected to move from phase two to phase three trials. 

Bonus Read: “Body temperature may not be an effective gauge of covid-19,” (WaPo).

Around the World

Australia and the Pacific

Tonga’s Next Battle: A “Tsunami” of Covid

The Pacific nation of Tonga suffered a devastating volcanic eruption on Saturday that sent tsunami waves halfway around the world, but now the nation faces another threat: a “tsunami” of coronavirus infections (WaPo). The archipelago is one of the few places in the world to remain essentially Covid-free and aid groups are trying to find contactless ways to deliver critical supplies (NYT). Tonga’s single case of the virus was detected in November 2021 and sent residents into a brief lockdown. “As much as we are going to send assistance, we will still need to follow the covid-19 protocols to keep the people in the population safe, rather than … [have] a tsunami of covid hitting Tonga,” a senior Tongan diplomat in Canberra, Curtis Tuihalangingie, told Australian public radio Tuesday. 

Australia Records its Deadliest Day of Covid

On Tuesday, Australia recorded the highest number of daily Covid deaths since the start of the pandemic with 74 deaths. The state of Victoria declared a state of emergency for its hospital system, which is overwhelmed by the high number of cases and a staff shortage since many health care workers are out sick with covid themselves. The state of emergency postpones leave for thousands of healthcare workers and defers nonessential services. Victoria’s deputy premier, James Merlino, said that more than 4,000 health care workers were unavailable at the moment (NYT). The federal government said it would send up to 57,000 nurses and over 100,000 other health care workers from private hospitals to other areas that are being affected by the Omicron variant. 

Middle East

Israel Struggles to Vaccinate Kids

Israel was a world leader in adult vaccinations thanks to an aggressive campaign by the government to inoculate its population, but now, the country is struggling to vaccinate its children. Israel has over 80% of all adults and over 90% of people over 60 twice vaccinated but there has been hesitancy among parents to get their children vaccinated (WSJ). Some parents say the government rushed the approval process and does not have enough scientific data related to the effectiveness or the side effects of the vaccine. Public health experts say that the way authorities initially downplayed Covid-19’s risk to young people sent mixed messages. 

Asia

Japan Places 13 Prefectures Under Quasi-State of Emergency

On Wednesday the Japanese government said that 13 prefectures, including Tokyo, will be placed under a quasi-state of emergency from Friday through Feb. 13 because of a rise in Omicron cases. Restrictions will include shortening business hours and prohibiting the sale of alcohol but rules will vary between prefectures (NYT). Japan is seeing a sharp rise in infections due to the Omicron variant, with 32,197 cases reported on Tuesday. Tokyo hit a record 7,377 new cases on Wednesday. 

Hong Kong To Cull Thousands of Hamsters After Covid Outbreak at Pet Shop

Hong Kong will cull more than 2,000 hamsters and ban the import of small animals after a pet shop suffered an outbreak of the Delta variant (NYT). A worker at the pet shop, one customer, and at least 11 hamsters tested positive. Officials said Tuesday that it wasn’t clear whether the virus had been transmitted to humans from imported hamsters, but they asked residents to surrender hamsters imported since Dec. 22. All hamsters at the city’s 34 licensed shops will be seized, tested, then euthanized. Authorities said they had found no precedent for hamsters passing the virus to humans, but hamsters have been infected in laboratories.

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “Why There’s a Civil War in Idaho — Inside the GOP,” (Politico).

Biden Struggles to Deliver on Some Pandemic Priorities; Republicans Look to Hit Biden on Pandemic Handling, a Risky Message; Democrats Worry About Electoral Impact of Other Unfulfilled Health Care Promises

The Washington Post reports that many actions and priorities promised by the Biden administration in its 200+ page pandemic strategy released last year, remain undelivered (WaPo). The Post describes some examples including, “Page 59 promised ‘predictable and robust’ federal purchasing of coronavirus tests — a pledge that industry leaders say fell far short, as Americans continue to line up to get tested while complaining they can’t find home test kits.” The Post also describes a page 81 promise to “support schools in implementing COVID-19 screening testing” as largely unfulfilled. It also notes a continuing worker shortage in nursing homes despite a pledge “to ensure patient safety.” 

The Post notes that some of the failure to deliver is rooted in Republican opposition to policies, courts rejecting and halting the implementation of some policies, and the twists and turns of the pandemic itself. Andy Slavitt, a former senior adviser to the Biden White House on Covid, told the Post, “This is a good plan overcome by events." The Post, however, writes, “But many say the United States would have been better prepared to deal with the virus’s curveballs if the administration had more quickly delivered on promises to improve testing and real-time virus surveillance and encouraged masking nationwide, rather than focusing so heavily on vaccines. The nation’s struggles to ramp up access to rapid coronavirus tests this winter could have been avoided, for instance, had the White House stuck to pledges to boost test supply last year and explain to Americans when to use them, said outside advisers and co-authors of Biden’s plan.” One anonymous person who helped craft the strategy told the Post, “We’d be in a better place to deal with omicron, because we’d have more tools to fight it.” 

The failure to deliver has drawn criticism including from Democrats like Washington Democratic Senator Patty Murray: “I’m frustrated we’re still behind on issues as important to families as testing and supporting schools.” She added, “That’s not to say we have not made progress. It’s just clear we haven’t made enough.” The White House contended to the Post that it had made progress on all of the strategy’s promises. Outside experts interviewed by the Post said that there was progress, but “each of the outside experts characterized key parts of Biden’s plan as unfinished, saying that much work remains to fulfill the president’s promises to protect essential workers, curb the virus’s spread and restore Americans’ trust in the federal government, among other goals.”

Meanwhile, Politico reports that Republicans are considering making the continuing pandemic an election issue against Biden, although the poor record of the Trump administration on the pandemic makes it a risky approach (Politico). Politico writes, “Republicans now say Biden has proven himself unprepared to deal with the Omicron surge. It's an argument that Republicans are eager to fling back at the White House after more than a year on the back foot, accusing Biden's party of politically weaponizing Covid against them.” Illinois Republican Representative Rodney Davis commented, “President Biden's learned a valuable lesson: Be careful who you criticize and what you criticize them for, because it may come back to you.” Politico notes some of the barriers to a sustained Republican attack on Biden over his handling of the pandemic, writing, “Members say it wouldn't resonate well with their base, compared with issues like the economy, education and national security. Republicans also see it as a tough point to underscore given their broad dismissal of Covid precautions after the nation's first round of vaccinations, as well as their growing rebukes of mask and vaccine mandates.” Some Republicans like Louisiana Rep. Mike Johnson have sought to address the criticism that Trump was a failure on the pandemic by arguing that Biden took office with a larger infrastructure to respond to the pandemic in place. Politico notes that House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy's office sent emails accusing Biden of failing to “live up to his own assurances” on the pandemic response.

In a separate story, the Washington Post reports that some Democrats are concerned about the potential electoral implications of the party’s failure to follow through on some of its campaign promises regarding health care (WaPo). The Washington Post writes, “The party campaigned on an ambitious agenda of beefing up Obamacare, increasing health care access to America’s most vulnerable patients, and, most significantly, lowering the high cost of prescription drugs in the United States. A year later, there’s increasing concern within the party about what falling short on their long-standing goals could mean for this year’s midterms.” Congressional Progressive Caucus Chair Pramila Jayapal (D-WA) called the failure a “concern” adding, “You can see it with the number of Democrats in vulnerable districts across the country who want to be able to go back and tell people that we’ve lowered their costs for child care, for pre-K, for elder care, for drug pricing, for health care.” There is still time for Democrats to pass some of the more popular proposals before the midterms, and Pennsylvania Democratic Representative Susan Wild commented, “I prefer to think of it not as a negative, ‘Oh, we’re doomed if we don’t get these things done,’ but as a real groundswell if we can get these things passed.” Even though the pandemic and economy may displace health care from its common location at the top of peoples’ concerns, some representatives may seek to push their own bills if Democrats fail to pass their agenda items. Bonus Read: “How a GOP majority in Congress might handle Biden in 2023,” (Politico).

Detainees Sue Arkansas Jail, Alleging They Were Unknowingly Given Ivermectin

On January 13, detainees at Arkansas’ Washington County Detention Center jail filed a complaint along with the ACLU in a lawsuit alleging that they were unknowingly treated with ivermectin, a drug generally used for livestock, which the FDA has said should not be used for Covid response (CBS, NYT). An ACLU statement on the lawsuit stated, “The Federal Food and Drug Administration has said that misuse of Ivermectin for COVID-19 can cause serious harm including seizures, comas, and even death. The detention center failed to use safe and appropriate treatments for COVID-19, even in the midst of a pandemic, and they must be held accountable.” The New York Times notes, “Misinformation that ivermectin is effective at treating or preventing coronavirus infection has run rampant across social media during the pandemic, and the inaccuracies have led some people to overdose on certain formulations of the drug, according to the F.D.A.”

NYC Mayor Eric Adams Says City “Winning” Against Omicron

On Tuesday, New York City Mayor Eric Adams said the city is “winning” against the Omicron variant (NYT). Speaking at a news conference at city hall, he stated, “Let’s be clear on this — we are winning.” The Times writes, “Mr. Adams, a Democrat in his third week in office, pointed to the average number of cases recorded daily, which has fallen from a known peak of more than 40,000 to less than 20,000, and to hospitalizations, which have fallen from a daily peak of about 6,500 people hospitalized citywide on Jan. 11 to about 5,800 patients on Jan. 16.” However, the Times notes that experts are sounding a cautious note, writing, “experts say New Yorkers should remain careful. The number of cases is still much higher than last winter, when there was an average of roughly 6,500 cases a day, according to city data.”

U.S. Economy

Arizona and Texas Recover All Pandemic Era Job Losses

The Wall Street Journal reports that Arizona and Texas have recovered all of the jobs they lost as a result of the pandemic (WSJ). The two states join Utah and Idaho, which had already recovered all their job losses. The Journal writes that all four states “benefited from demographic shifts before and during the pandemic—experiencing outsize payroll growth in retail, warehousing, technology and transportation industries. Companies have moved operations to the states, and workers have moved in as well, sometimes leaving more crowded and expensive urban areas. The states—all Republican controlled—also have had relatively relaxed Covid-19 restrictions during the pandemic, which economists say softened the blow on their economies.” However, the Journal also reports that they are “leading a trend that is expected to include another dozen states by the middle of this year.”

WSJ Survey: Experts Downgrade U.S. Growth Outlook Citing Omicron, Supply Chain Issues, and Inflation

Forecasters downgraded their assessments of the outlook for U.S. economic growth in the Wall Street Journal’s latest survey of experts (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Forecasters surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month slashed their expectation for growth in the first quarter by more than a percentage point, to a 3% annual rate from their forecast of 4.2% in the October survey.” The surveyed experts cited the influence of the Omicron variant, inflation, and continuing supply chain issues in explaining their judgments. Lynn Reaser, a former chief economist at Bank of America who is now at Point Loma Nazarene University told the Journal, “The economy is at a major turning point in terms of whether inflationary expectations start to become embedded in the minds of companies, consumers, and workers.” The surveyed forecasters expected inflation to moderate but remain high: “On average, survey respondents expect annual inflation to moderate to 5% in June, up substantially from the 3.4% they forecast in October, as measured by the consumer-price index. They expect it to cool further to 3.1% at the end of this year, up from last quarter’s forecast of 2.6%.”

U.S. Society

Rapid Tests Pose Challenges for Blind People

Millions of Americans rely upon the results of rapid at-home tests, yet people who have limited vision or who are completely blind, face significant challenges in using such tests (NYT). Some companies have entered the marketplace, providing new apps that allow sighted people to read at-home test instructions out loud and guide blind Americans through the process. The New York Times cautions, “But these interactions are difficult, and not everyone who is blind owns a smartphone or is able to use a smartphone. What’s more, relying on others can erode a blind person’s privacy and independence.” Other efforts are in the works for accessible at-home tests in which raised bumps make detection more accessible. Until these are widely manufactured, however, many blind people are choosing to simply stay at home to remain safe.

Increased At Home Testing Brings False Negatives and Worry

The popularity of using at-home tests has risen over the last few months, and as people increasingly use at-home rapid antigen tests, false negatives have caused some stress and confusion (WaPo). False results are always an issue, but the Washington Post writes, “The promise of at-home tests to tell people whether they are infectious has been undercut not just by anecdotal reports […] but also by preliminary data that suggests some of the rapid tests may be less sensitive to the now-dominant omicron variant.” False negatives have led to confusion and stress on the part of some who have relied upon them. As one New Yorker put it, “the at-home tests offer “a false sense of security.” She had gone to a New Year’s party after receiving a negative test at home, but then received a positive PCR test later. Health experts recommend using at-home tests serially over the course of a few days because some false negatives are inevitable. New tests entering the market may also reduce the issue insofar as it’s a product of the new variant by improving the test’s ability to detect Omicron.

DC Libraries Take Up a Key Role in Test Distribution, Librarians Feel Overwhelmed

Across Washington, D.C. and the country, libraries are playing a major role in the distribution of Covid tests (WaPo, WTOP). However, the new role as distribution centers comes with added pressures for librarians. The Washington Post writes, “librarians have become the latest front-line workers of the pandemic. Phones ring every few minutes with yet another call from someone asking about the library’s supply of free coronavirus tests, often asking medical questions library workers aren’t trained to answer. Patrons arrive in such large numbers to grab tests that the line sometimes backs up for blocks. And exhausted librarians also are getting sick with covid themselves.” One DC librarian told the Post, “The library has always been a community center, a place where the public can get something they wouldn’t have otherwise, like free Internet,” adding, “But it feels like we’ve become too good at our jobs. It becomes, ‘Oh, the library can handle it.’ We’re getting more and more tasks and responsibilities that just feel overwhelming.” The Post interviewed six library workers, who all spoke anonymously due to library rules forbidding media interviews. One worker told the Post, “We care about our community, but we’re tired.” The District is not alone in relying on its libraries to aid distribution. Boston is among other cities that have adopted the practice.

Analysis & Arguments

Ezra Klein interviews Zeynep Turfecki on the failures of pandemic response (NYT).

Joshua M. Sharfstein writes on how the CDC and FDA can cooperate better (NYT).

Bryce Covert writes on how the pandemic has shaped housing movements (Nation).

Left wing outlets report on working conditions at Kroger stores amid a strike, which we covered in a prior brief (Jacobin, Nation).

National Review’s editors argue that BIden should fire Fauci (National Review).

Zach Stafford writes on the unvaccinated and the mockery they receive (MSNBC).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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