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June 14, 2022 - Brief Issue 336

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

FDA Says Pfizer-BioNTech Safe and Effective for Children Under 5 (Health & Science)

Covid-19 Variant Shot Shows Strong Response to Omicron (Health & Science)

Ivermectin Has Little Effect on Recovery Time, Says Study (Health & Science)

Trudeau Tests Positive, Again (Around the World)

Japan Has Lowest Per Capita Death Rate Among Wealthy Nations (Around the World)

Over 100 Transport For London Workers Died from Covid-19 (Around the World)

EU’s Coronavirus Recovery Fund Has New Purpose (Around the World)

Biden Frustrated on Gas Prices (U.S. Government & Politics)

Andrew Giuliani Says Barred From Physically Attending  NY GOP Governor’s Debate Over Vaccine Status (U.S. Government & Politics)

Stock Market Drops Near Bear Market Levels (U.S. Economy)

Federal Reserve Signals Interest Rate Hikes May Increase Unemployment (U.S. Economy)

How the Pandemic Undermined the Sick Day (U.S. Society)

Dogs Anxious as People Return to the Office (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 85,632,808 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,011,543 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 591,103,144 vaccine doses, with 78% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.8% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.4% have received at least one dose, and 76.7% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 47.1% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 24.8% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 535,943,669 cases of coronavirus, with 6,310,752 deaths.

FDA Says Pfizer-BioNTech Safe and Effective for Children Under 5

On Sunday the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said the coronavirus vaccine made by Pfizer-BioNTech is effective in producing a virus-blocking response in children under five years of age (WaPo). They also said the vaccine did not raise any safety concerns. The FDA said preliminary data showed the vaccine was 80.4% effective in preventing symptomatic Covid-19. Side effects were minimal and included irritability and drowsiness and pain at the injection site.

On Wednesday the FDA’s independent experts are scheduled to meet to consider a request for emergency use authorization of the vaccine in the youngest children. The panel will also consider a request from Moderna to use its vaccine in children under six years of age (NYT). Following the meeting on Wednesday, the FDA will decide whether to follow the panel’s advice, which it often does. If the experts recommend clearing the vaccines and the FDA acts on that recommendation, shots could be available as soon as next week. 

Covid-19 Variant Shot Shows Strong Response to Omicron

Two new studies found that a Covid-19 vaccine developed by Sanofi and GSK to target the Beta strain of the virus produced a stronger antibody response against the Omicron variant compared to some first-generation shots (WSJ). One study, which was run by the companies, involved 1,500 people who had received either the Pfizer or Moderna vaccines and showed that the tweaked vaccine induced double the number of antibodies against Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 than the original vaccines. A separate study run by French researchers and funded by the French government and Sanofi found that the Beta-variant vaccine from Sanofi-GSK produced higher levels of antibodies against Omicron BA.1 than either the Pfizer vaccine or the older version of the Sanofi-GSK shot. Neither study has been peer reviewed. The companies plan to submit the data to vaccine regulators in coming weeks and hope to make it available as a booster shot later this year. 

Ivermectin Has Little Effect on Recovery Time, Says Study

Data from a new clinical trial that is the largest to date show that the anti-parasite drug ivermectin does not meaningfully reduce the time needed to recover from Covid (NYT). The trial, conducted by researchers at Duke University and Vanderbilt University, tested more than 1,500 people with Covid, giving half of the participants ivermectin and the other half a placebo. People taking ivermectin felt unwell for an average of 10.96 days, while those on a placebo felt unwell for 11.45 days—a difference of about 12 hours. Almost half of the volunteers had been vaccinated.

“Given these results, there does not appear to be a role for ivermectin outside of a clinical trial setting, especially considering other available options with proven reduction in hospitalizations and death,” Dr. Adrian Hernandez, the executive director of the Duke Clinical Research Institute who led the trial, said in a statement on Sunday night. The study has not been published in a medical journal yet.

Around the World

Bonus Read: “On Three Different Continents, Rural Health Strains under the Weight of the Coronavirus,” (Scientific American).

Trudeau Tests Positive, Again 

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has tested positive for the coronavirus for the second time, he announced on Monday. Trudeau has been triple-vaccinated and has also recovered from Covid-19 once already in January. “I’ll be following public health guidelines and isolating. I feel okay, but that’s because I got my shots,” Trudeau said in a tweet Monday morning. Trudeau had just returned from Los Angeles where he met with other leaders at the Summit of the Americas and met with U.S. President Joe Biden on Thursday (Politico).

Japan Has Lowest Per Capita Death Rate Among Wealthy Nations

According to new data, Japan has the lowest number of Covid-19 deaths per capita among the world’s wealthiest nations. As of Sunday, Japan’s cumulative Covid-19 deaths per million population stood at 245, according to Our World in Data, a website that tallies Covid-19 statistics. That is the lowest figure among the 38 member states in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, a club of wealthy nations that includes the U.S. and most of Europe (WSJ). For example, the U.S. has 3,038 deaths per million people, which is the highest rate in the OECD. Health experts credit Japan’s social acceptance of mask wearing and the low obesity rate with keeping the death rate low. 

Over 100 Transport For London Workers Died from Covid-19

According to a new report by the University College London (UCL), 105 Transport for London workers, including those who worked for cleaning and security contractors, have died of Covid-19 so far (BBC). Of those who died, 75 worked on London buses while 23 worked on the London Underground. UCL was asked by Transport for London to investigate the high death rate of bus drivers in particular, after 29 bus drivers died of covid-19 within the first few months of the pandemic. The UCL report found that an earlier lockdown would likely have saved the lives of bus drivers in the UK’s capital.   

EU’s Coronavirus Recovery Fund Has New Purpose

In the face of rising energy costs and a moral and security imperative to become independent of Russian oil and gas, the European Commission is hoping to entice member states to take advantage of the Next Generation EU Covid-19 recovery fund to become independent of Russian fossil fuels. The 750-billion-euro fund offered member states grants and low-interest loans to help cope with the financial burden of the pandemic, but only a handful of member states took advantage of the loans meaning the fund currently has 225 billion euros in unused loans. The commission hopes that these loans could now be used by member states to invest in renewable energy among other projects outlined in the EUs REPower EU plan released in May (EuroNews). 

Bonus Read: “Costly, scandal-ridden mass testing is China’s latest ‘zero covid’ bet,” (WaPo).

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “As economic worry grows, Democrats face weary Vegas voters,” (WaPo).

Biden Frustrated on Gas Prices

The Washington Post reports that despite sounding a positive note in public around the ability of efforts on biofuels to cut gas prices, privately President Biden is expressing frustration with the difficulty of lowering the price of gas (WaPo). The Post reports, “privately, Biden dismissed the policy as ineffective and questioned the value of the trip, according to two people familiar with the conversations. After returning to the White House, he hauled his senior staff, including chief of staff Ron Klain, into the Oval Office, badgering them with questions about the purpose of the event. Biden had worried even before the announcement that it exaggerated ethanol’s ability to cut gas prices and could harm his climate goals, the people said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss private conversations. But Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack and other officials urged Biden to go, arguing that it would at least help the Midwest — and the White House, after all, was desperate for ways to lower gas prices.” The frustration over biofuels comes amid a larger frustration over the seeming inability to control inflation, a major political liability for Democrats. The Post writes that White House Chief of Staff Ron Klain “and other top officials have directed agency heads to look for any and all steps they might take to lower costs for Americans. Biden is increasingly voicing his anger internally. And some Democrats, inside and outside the White House, want to focus on oil and gas company greed as a centerpiece of their fall message.” Meanwhile many economists are describing the current inflation as persistent and unlikely to be shifted by policy action in the short term. Bonus Read: “Average U.S. gas prices top $5 a gallon, as surging energy costs squeeze economy,” (WaPo).

Andrew Giuliani Says Barred From Physically Attending  NY GOP Governor’s Debate Over Vaccine Status

On Sunday, Andrew Giuliani, son of Rudy, announced that he would not be able to attend the Republican debate in the New York Governor’s race because the studio had barred him since he is unvaccinated (NYT). Instead he said he would attend virtually, a move criticized by at least two other potential Republican nominees who planned to be at the debate. During a press conference, Giluiani touted his decision not to get vaccinated, stating, “I chose very clearly that I was not going to get the shot.” His decision is out of step with most New Yorkers, with the New York Times writing, “As of Sunday, according to a New York Times database, 91 percent of New Yorkers of all ages have received at least one dose of a coronavirus vaccine, and 78 percent of residents are fully vaccinated.” The Times writes, “Mr. Giuliani preceded his news conference by releasing a letter he sent to WCBS, the CBS network’s flagship affiliate, arguing that their policy was ‘arbitrary’ and ‘serves to discriminate against a political candidate and their access to equal opportunity and religious liberty.’” WCBS confirmed it has a vaccination requirement in its studio, and told the Times, that the requirement was a decision made “in consultation with health care experts, government officials and the many unions representing our employees.” However, it added, “Any candidate who doesn’t meet this requirement is encouraged to participate in Monday’s debate remotely.”

U.S. Economy

Stock Market Drops Near Bear Market Levels

On Monday, the stock market opened with a plunge that many attribute to ongoing concerns over inflation (WaPo, NYT, WSJ). The Washington Post writes, “The S&P 500 had plunged 2.9 percent by noon and the tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index slumped 3.7 percent. The Dow Jones industrial average sank 630 points, or around 2 percent. Each of the indexes is down sharply in 2022, and there is no clear indication of when the markets could stabilize. The Federal Reserve is slated to meet Tuesday and Wednesday and it is expected to raise interest rates as a way to tamp down inflation. But that initiative is also putting immense pressure on the stock market.” The Post adds, “The decline puts the S&P 500 back in bear market territory, defined as a 20 percent fall from the most recent high, after it briefly touched the benchmark in intraday trading last month.” The Wall Street Journal notes it would be the first bear market since 2020. The New York Times notes that the fall was not restricted to U.S. markets, writing, “Markets around the world tumbled, as higher-than-expected inflation and lower-than-expected economic growth upend the outlook for interest rates and corporate profits. Stocks in Asia and Europe fell, investors dumped government bonds, oil prices slipped and cryptocurrencies crashed.” Bonus Read: “What you should know about bear markets,” (NYT).

Federal Reserve Signals Interest Rate Hikes May Increase Unemployment

The United States has recently been in a record tight labor market with high job openings and low unemployment. However, the Wall Street Journal reports that the Federal Reserve is signaling that its interest rate hikes aimed at curtailing inflation may increase unemployment (WSJ). The Journal notes that “Most Fed officials in March expected the unemployment rate to hold near or fall below its current level this year and over the following two years,” yet adds, “But in recent interviews and public statements, Fed officials have sketched out a path in which unemployment rises this year, though not sharply, as the economy and inflation cool, a scenario Mr. Powell has referred to as a 'soft or ‘soft-ish’ landing.'" For example, on May 10 New York Fed President John Williams commented, “we definitely could see unemployment moving up somewhat, but not in a huge way.” The Journal adds, “Mr. Powell echoed those comments in an interview a week later. Achieving a soft landing ‘doesn’t mean that the unemployment rate needs to remain at 3.6%, which is a very, very low rate,’ he said. Fed governor Christopher Waller went a step further in a speech on May 30. ‘If we can get unemployment to just 4.25%, I would consider that a masterful performance by the central bank,’ he said.”

Bonus Read: “Amazon calls cops, fires workers in attempts to stop unionization nationwide,” (WaPo).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “A Minneapolis woman was about to be evicted. Neighbors bought her home for her,” (WaPo).

How the Pandemic Undermined the Sick Day

The New York Times reports that one consequence of the pandemic is that the sick day has been undermined (NYT). The Times writes, “Working while sick is an American pastime — one that a vicious pandemic, which sickened millions, somehow didn’t disrupt. Over 100 other countries guarantee some form of paid sick leave. In the United States, a survey of 3,600 hourly workers this spring found that two-thirds of those who had been sick with Covid or other illnesses went to work while sick, according to the Shift Project at Harvard, a research project on work scheduling. Many of them cited fear of getting in trouble with their managers, or financial pressures.” Moreover, a Mercer survey found essentially no change in how many sick day hours non-hourly salaried workers were using compared to before the pandemic. Part of the issue is cultural. The Times notes, “Like so many Americans, Vice President Kamala Harris got Covid in late April. Like so many Americans, she worked right through it, seated at her desk surrounded by the signifiers of productivity: binders, pens, pastel Post-it notes. Other Covid-positive political figures assured the public they, too, were forging ahead on their to-do lists: Jen Psaki, Gavin Newsom. Donald J. Trump, when he had Covid, posed for his own working-through-it photos, though he appeared to be signing a blank sheet of paper.” In other cases, the rise of remote work has blurred the boundaries that prevented people from working while sick when work meant time in the office. Though some employers have sought to encourage cultural change, others are pulling back from the benefits provided during the pandemic. The Times writes, “many others are dropping benefits introduced during the pandemic. This spring, Amazon announced a return to its prepandemic sick leave. Walmart stopped offering emergency paid leave for most of its workers with Covid at the end of March, instead asking employees to use their regular bank of paid time off and sick days.”

Dogs Anxious as People Return to the Office

The Wall Street Journal reports that anxiety attacks among dogs are on the rise as their owners return to the office after years of constantly being home (WSJ). The Journal writes, “PetMeds, an online pet pharmacy, says prescriptions it filled for anxiety medications for pets increased 26% between 2019 and 2021. Mike Petty, a veterinarian in Canton, Mich., says he has prescribed more anti-anxiety medication in the past year than in the entire past decade.” The Journal spoke to dog owners and vets and profiled various cases of dog anxiety to examine the challenges, how people are responding, and the spectrum of severity that can be at work.

Analysis & Arguments

Deepta Bhattacharya writes on how new tools can boost Covid immunity (NYT).

Katherine J. Wu writes on the limits of a negative Covid test result (Atlantic).

The National Review argues inflation is here to stay and cautions against various policy responses (National Review).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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