Good morning. This is Austen Hufford with the latest on the economy. You can send questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

Within energy circles, estimates of how much oil will be needed in 2050 range anywhere from 80% less than today to business as usual. Investors have the difficult job of betting which companies are on the wrong side of the most important trend for the sector in decades, Heard on the Street reports.

• Haitham al-Ghais, secretary-general of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, repeated the cartel’s view that global demand for oil will hit 110 million barrels a day by 2045—as far out as OPEC currently projects.
• Exxon Mobil said that the chances of the world getting to net zero are low because of the drop in living standards it would cause. The company expects global oil demand to still be roughly 100 million barrels a day by 2050.
• Shell’s latest energy security report looks at two scenarios. Even with no new climate policies, it thinks demand for oil will fall around 10% by the middle of the century. And it sees a plunge if the world gets really serious about reducing emissions.
• BP has looked at two “what if” scenarios in addition to the most aggressive net-zero one. It estimates that oil production will decline by roughly 25% based on trends it is already seeing in the market, or close to 60% in its “accelerated” scenario in which climate regulations get tighter.

Initial jobless claims at set to come out at 8:30 a.m. ET

The second revision for U.S.Gross domestic product will be released at 8:30 a.m. ET

Air conditioners make people cooler and the world hotter. A slew of startups are launching new products to break that cycle.

Just a week into summer, heat waves are causing a surge in electricity demand across the U.S. South, in part to power ACs. The startups say highly efficient ACs can help ease strain on the electric grid and help it withstand sizzling temperatures.

The startups are rushing to capitalize on a wave of government regulation and incentives such as tax credits and rebates for high-efficiency products that are part of the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act.

The Supreme Court is poised to rule on the Biden administration’s plan to eliminate as much as $20,000 in federal student debt for millions of borrowers. The forgiveness plan would wipe away an estimated $430 billion in loans from the government’s books. Here are the borrowers who could be most affected, Rosie Ettenheim and Kara Dapena report. 

More than 43 million people collectively owe $1.6 trillion in federal student-loan debt as of March 31, according to the Education Department. About half of these borrowers owe less than $20,000.

The share of households with student-loan debt more than doubled from 1989 to 2019, according to a Federal Reserve report. About 30% of Black households had student-loan debt in 2019, the most recent year available, compared with about 20% of white households and 14% of Hispanic households.

Among households whose net worth is in the bottom 25%, more than one-third hold student debt, compared with 6% of those in the top 10%, according to the Federal Reserve.

It’s not Budweiser. It’s also not Coors Light, Miller Lite or Michelob Ultra. It’s not even brewed in the United States. The most popular American beer right now is the Mexican import Modelo Especial.

An accelerant in the improbable ascent of Modelo was the spectacular demise of Bud Light. When the brand enlisted a transgender influencer for a social-media campaign this spring, the backlash was so unexpectedly intense that AB InBev’s bestselling beer still hasn’t recovered.

Every ounce of data suggests that Modelo’s lead in the beer market is built to last, given the shifting American demographics and consumer habits working in the brand’s favor. The economic power of the nation’s Hispanic population keeps growing, but Constellation also says that 45% of Modelo’s customer base in the U.S. is non-Hispanic, as craft beers and Mexican imports are increasingly popular across the country. The momentum was on Modelo’s side. It was only a matter of time before the squat bottle with snazzy gold foil was everywhere.

• The Brookings Institution named Cecilia Rouse its next president. Rouse is joining Brookings from Princeton University, where she is a professor of economics and public affairs. She served from 2021 to 2023 as Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers.
• Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a Madrid speech that the failures of Silicon Valley Bank and two other midsize lenders this spring underscore the need for strong capital buffers to ensure the banking system is resilient during times of stress.

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Real Time Economics comes to you from WSJ reporters and editors around the world. Today's issue was curated and edited by Austen Hufford and Greg Ip (@greg_ip) in Washington, D.C., and Joanna Sugden in London.

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