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TAKING THE AUSTRALIAN COTTON

ACSA recently took the Australian cotton message to the world – this time to Turkey and Bangladesh.

Turkey has been a long time, opportunistic and casual purchaser of Australian cotton but observing recent increased interest in our cotton, ACSA determined that an export market development venture was in order.

Turkey has taken about 7% of Australia’s 2017 season cotton crop – an immense increase over the small volumes sold to this market over the past 10 years.

The ACSA delegation visited Maras, Gaziantep, Adana and Istanbul to conduct a series of seminars that provided information about Australian cotton. Cliff White, Chairman of the Association explained that the purpose of the visit was to develop and explore market opportunities in the very important Turkish market. Turkey is well known in the international cotton trade and although imports from Australia have been variable it is felt that the attention from Turkish buyers has begun to focus on Australian cotton which is one of the highest quality upland cottons in the world.
 



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MESSAGE TO THE WORLD

 “Our visit was extremely successful and the meetings have helped all involved in the Turkish market to get a better understanding of Australian cotton.” The Australian delegation is positive that while this is the first visit by a cotton delegation from Australia it will definitely not be the last.

Whereas the visit to Turkey was about developing a market, in Bangladesh it was more about building on the reputation Australia already has in that country.

Bangladesh is certainly no stranger to Australian cotton and is in fact at the moment, our second biggest market. Australian merchants have built on what was once an opportunistic market and the Bangladeshi’s have developed an appreciation and appetite for Australian cotton. The visit to Dhaka was ACSA’s third export market development venture over the past few years, underpinning the message that Bangladesh is important to the Australian cotton industry.

Bangladeshi spinners have shown increased interest in Australian cotton and that interest looks like being followed up with a number of spinning mill executives expected to attend the Australian Cotton Conference on the Gold Coast in August.



TAKING THE AUSTRALIAN COTTON MESSAGE TO THE MACINTYRE

The MacIntyre Valley might be a world away from Turkey and Bangladesh, but ACSA was just as pleased to be invited to present at the MacIntyre Field Day  - an annual event that draws growers and industry folk from far and wide.

Cliff spoke about ACSA's recent travels to Turkey and Bangladesh, communicating to the grower community what the market (our buyers) wants from Australian cotton.

 



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Golf anyone?

ACSA's Director of Golf Phil Sloan is busy planning ACSA's Golf Day which will be held in conjunction with the upcoming Australian Cotton Conference.

We expect a bumper day out with some special tee-side events and great prizes. Stay tuned for more details!

Please mark Monday, August 6 in your diary as battle day for the Hilton Lobb and Brett Austin trophies. Golf will be followed by an invitational dinner, held especially for our international Conference guests and industry partners.

Emerald Lakes is our chosen venue this year with a 10.00 am tee-off. We are still finalising a few details but if you'd like to reserve a playing and/or dinner spot, please email Tracey at secretariat@austcottonshippers.com.au.



AUSTRALIAN COTTON CONFERENCE

The Australian Cotton Conference is an experience not-to-be-missed.  Held at the Gold Coast from 7-9 August 2018, this event will bring togethe cotton growers, researchers, spinners, brands and marketers, students, supply chain partners, industry groups and cotton groupies.  Together we’ll look at the challenges and opportunities facing cotton, share and learn from one another and listen to some of the world’s best cotton experts – and have a whole lot of fun along the way.

Registrations are now open - get in early to secure accommodation at preferred rates.

www.australiancottonconference.com.au
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FROM CARRATHOOL TO ISTANBUL

Peter Tuohey, Cotton Australia Director & Australian cotton grower

I recently had the privilege of participating in ACSA’s export market development visit to Turkey and Bangladesh. I represented Cotton Australia as a Director but also represented Australian cotton growers in telling my story about growing Australian cotton.

The visit to these markets provided me with an opportunity to learn about the cotton supply chain from gin to spinning mill.

ACSA’s seminars were especially insightful with the stunning film that opened each seminar (and if you haven’t seen the film, it can be found at their website www.austcottonshippers.com.au). I presented to the audiences at these seminars, telling them what it is to own and run a cotton farm in Australia, how the attributes of Australian cotton make it a stand-out fibre and how Cotton Australia supports growers and the Australian industry.

In return I was afforded the opportunity for an up-close view of the relationships and interactions between cotton merchants, agents and spinners and how this results in sales of Australian cotton.

Amongst all of this was the opportunity to speak one-on-one with agents and spinners in both Turkey and Bangladesh. I had the good fortune to meet Leon Picon who is on the board of the Better Cotton Initiative (BCI).

It was great to view the contrasts between Turkey – as a small and evolving market and Bangladesh – a firmly established large importer of Australian cotton.

The success of the EMD visits to both countries was heightened by the well organised seminars and engagement with Austrade to handle local logistics and ensure the group was across local conditions and customs.

The underlying messages I took away from this export market development visit were that those that already use Australian cotton would continue to use it in increasing quantities due to its great spinning qualities and low contamination; and there are plenty of spinners looking to give Australian cotton a go – subject to price!

I have a new appreciation for the cotton supply chain and would like to thank ACSA and Cotton Australia for the opportunity to participate in this EMD visit.

FROM THE TRADING DESK

By Matthew Bradd

Let’s start by talking about New York Futures. This year we have traded a 10 US cents/lb range of 76 to 86 cents – equating to US$50 per bale. This is a large part of the reason price offerings to Australian growers are around A$575 per bale at the moment.

New York is supported around 80 cents by on-call fixations by spinners. Spinners have been buying more and more on-call, fixing their preferred growths and delivery periods and waiting until closer to delivery to fix the Futures with hope that yarn prices are trailing the market closely. At the moment, for the May and July 2018 contracts, we know that 6.8 million bales need to be fixed, all by first notice day on the July contract which is 25th June.

Specs know this and they are holding the situation hostage by maintaining longs.

If we look at the Speculator Net Length chart below – which shows speculators in the grey shadow and ICE price in the blue line - one can see quickly that NY Futures are highly correlated to what the speculators are doing. Speculators are long around 8 million bales of cotton. The fact that spinners need to fix those 6.8 million bales of cotton, there is a clear stand-off between the two.  The one thing that could let the spinners out of this position is a risk-off event, sparked by a trade war which would decrease outside markets – similar to the recent decline in equities markets.

On a physical front, business has been very quiet with basis levels starting to feel the pressure of a looming July-December invert, one that represents different US crop production numbers and availability. A large invert will pressure those holding physical stocks to sell quickly. A smaller invert/ carry market would do the opposite. From memory I believe this is the fifth year we have had a July/December invert to manage.

In general the spinner seems to well covered until June/July which will at least allowing them to play a wait and see hand with buying ideas around 93-95 US cents/lb CIF for any serious volumes. China, Australia’s largest market, has been consuming its state reserve, and not focusing on imported cotton.

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Daily chart for NY Cotton May 2018 cotton futures. On the right you can see the 10 cent range market by the level lines, H for the contract H which happened very recently in early March.



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Speculator Net Length vs ICE NY No. 2 Cotton