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October 5, 2021 - Brief Issue 246

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

European Regulator Backs Booster Shots (Health & Science)

Scientists Seek One Coronavirus Vaccine to Rule Them All (Health & Science)

Pfizer Efficacy Drops After Six Months, Says New Study (Health & Science)

Risk of Myocarditis in Young Men After Second Vaccine Increases But is Rare (Health & Science)

Global Trade Boom to Continue, Says WTO (Around the World)

New Zealand Abandons “Covid Zero” Strategy (Around the World)

Ukraine’s Death Toll Highest Since May (Around the World)

Australia Won’t Allow Tourists to Visit Until 2022 (Around the World)

Treasury Department to Redistribute Rental Assistance to Those in Most Need (U.S. Government & Politics)

Asian Americans Blame Trump But Not Republicans for Discrimination (U.S. Government & Politics)

Pandemic-Related Inflation Pressures Slow, But Broader Pressures Remain (U.S. Economy)

Cheap Appliances in Short Supply, As Companies Prioritize Expensive Products Amid Supply Chain Disruptions (U.S. Economy)

With Mandate in Place, 96% of New York Teachers Are Vaccinated (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 43,853,215 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 703,402 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 396,919,564 vaccine doses, with 64.9% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 56% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 77.7% have received at least one dose, and 67.3% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 3.1% of Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 235,495,429 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 4,811,281 deaths.

European Regulator Backs Booster Shots

The European Medicines Agency (EMA) endorsed Covid-19 vaccine booster shots for a broad range of individuals on Monday. An expert committee for the agency said that Pfizer’s vaccine could be given as a booster to those over 18 at least six months after their second dose (WSJ). It is still evaluating data for Moderna’s vaccine, but said that it or Pfizer’s vaccine could be administered to people with weakened immune systems at least 28 days after their second shot. The EMA’s recommendation includes more individuals than the FDA did in it’s recommendation, which came last week, and included those aged 65 and older and those at high risk of severe disease. Individual European countries must now decide whether or not to accept the EMA’s wide endorsement or to limit the scope of their own booster vaccination programs. Italy, France, Germany and Ireland have already started to administer booster shots and the Netherlands plans to do so soon but only to people who are immuno-suppressed (Reuters). 

Scientists Seek One Coronavirus Vaccine to Rule Them All

Scientists believe that ending this coronavirus pandemic, and preventing the next one, could be done with a single vaccine. Some researchers are already trying to develop that vaccine -- a pan-coronavirus vaccine that would protect people from not only all Covid-19 variants but also from a range of coronaviruses that cause disease in humans (WSJ). Roughly 20 research teams are already tackling the challenge of a single shot that would address all coronaviruses and some believe that since coronaviruses mutate less often and have fewer distinct lineages, it might be an easier task than developing a universal vaccine against influenza, for example. “We need to work proactively on these viruses and many, many others,” said David Veesler, a University of Washington School of Medicine biochemist whose lab is testing an experimental vaccine against a group of coronaviruses. 

According to the Journal, “The Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations, an Oslo-based organization that funds development of vaccines for epidemic diseases, is investing $200 million in grants for early-stage development of vaccines that protect broadly against dangerous coronaviruses. The U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, whose scientists are studying ways to make coronavirus vaccines, is awarding a further $95 million to other researchers, including $36 million to teams at Duke University, the University of Wisconsin, Madison and Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston.”

Pfizer Efficacy Drops After Six Months, Says New Study

The Pfizer vaccine dropped from 88% efficacy of preventing severe infections to 47% six months after the second dose, according to data published on Monday in the Lancet. The data, which U.S. health authorities considered when deciding on booster shot recommendations, was released previously ahead of peer review. The analysis showed that the vaccine was highly effective (90%) at preventing hospitalization and death for at least six months, even against the Delta variant. According to Reuters, “vaccine effectiveness against the Delta variant was 93% after the first month, declining to 53% after four months. Against other coronavirus variants, efficacy declined to 67% from 97%.”

"To us, that suggests Delta is not an escape variant that is completely evading vaccine protection," said study leader Sara Tartof with Kaiser Permanente Southern California's Department of Research & Evaluation. "If it was, we would probably not have seen high protection after vaccination, because vaccination would not be working in that case. It would start low, and stay low." 

Risk of Myocarditis in Young Men After Second Vaccine Increases But is Rare

A second dose of the coronavirus vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna can nearly triple the chances of a rare heart condition called myocarditis in young men, a new study published on Monday showed (NYT). But the absolute risk of the condition, which causes inflamed heart muscle, remains extremely low. The study found 5.8 cases per million second doses in men with an average age of 25 years. Following the first dose, the risk was much less, at 0.8 cases per million. Health experts have said that the benefits of the coronavirus vaccines far outweigh the risk of myocarditis, but some regulators, like those in Britain and Hong Kong, have recommended a single dose for adolescents aged 12 to 15 years as a precaution. The findings were published in JAMA Internal Medicine.

Around the World

Global Trade Boom to Continue, Says WTO

The World Trade Organization (WTO) said that global trade will continue on the path of rapid rebound this year and next, with Asia seeing the strongest gains in exports. The organization’s new forecasts, released Monday, highlighted how the pandemic has affected countries’ economies unequally. “The trade recovery is strong but unequal,” said Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, the WTO’s director general. “Poorer regions with mostly unvaccinated populations are lagging behind.” According to the Wall Street Journal, “Asia’s exports of goods will be 18.8% higher by the end of 2022 than two years earlier, while Africa’s exports are set to rise by just 1.9%. The trade dispute body expects North American exports to be up 8%, and European exports to be 7.8% higher.” 

New Zealand Abandons “Covid Zero” Strategy

New Zealand has given up its goal of “covid zero.” On Monday, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern acknowledged that the current seven-week lockdown has failed to stop the spread of the Delta variant and said that restrictions would be gradually lifted in Auckland (NYT). “We’re transitioning from our current strategy into a new way of doing things,” Ms. Ardern told reporters. “With Delta, the return to zero is incredibly difficult, and our restrictions alone are not enough to achieve that quickly. In fact, for this outbreak, it’s clear that long periods of heavy restrictions has not got us to zero cases.”

“What we have called a long tail,” she added, “feels more like a tentacle that has been incredibly hard to shake.” New Zealand has, for a year and a half, closed its borders and enforced lockdowns quickly in order to keep the virus at bay. The approach has been successful and the country has had one of the lowest rates of cases and deaths in the world. But the most recent lockdown brought protests from residents of Auckland, and many citizens are angry that the vaccination campaign only began in earnest last month, far behind most other developed nations. Ardern said on Monday that the country would take a three-stage map out of lockdown in an effort to “make everyday life a little easier.” But to get away from lockdowns completely, Ardern said that widespread vaccination would be needed; around 79% of the population 12 and older have received at least one dose and 48% have received two doses. 

Ukraine’s Death Toll Highest Since May

The number of daily coronavirus-related deaths in Ukraine rose above 300 for the first time since May, according to data from the health ministry released on Tuesday (Reuters). The ministry reported 9,846 new infections in the past 24 hours. The number of cases has been growing steadily for the past several weeks and the government has tightened lockdown restrictions as a result. Only about 5.82 million people out of the country’s 41 million population have been fully vaccinated. 

Australia Won’t Allow Tourists to Visit Until 2022

Foreign tourists will not be welcomed back to Australia until at least 2022, the prime minister said on Tuesday in outlining plans for lifting restrictions. The country will prioritize the return of skilled migrants and students, said Prime Minister Scott Morrison, but only after 80% of the full population aged 16 and over is vaccinated (AP). Just days ago Morrison announced that vaccinated citizens and permanent residents currently abroad could return to the country in November, the first time the borders were open to them since March 2020. The country’s travel restrictions are the strictest of any democracy in the world and have led to the lowest level of immigration since World War II. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Treasury Department to Redistribute Rental Assistance to Those in Most Need

The Wall Street Journal reports that the U.S. Treasury Department will begin redistributing rental assistance funds from organizations that have not been spending the funds fast enough to those in more need, according to guidance released on Monday (WSJ). The Journal explains, “Grantees that haven’t obligated at least 65% of the funds received under the pandemic Emergency Rental Assistance program by Sept. 30 must submit an improvement plan to the Treasury Department laying out steps they plan to take to get more funds out the door, the agency said. The lowest-performing groups—those that haven't spent or distributed at least 30% of the funds received—could see the relief money redistributed to other communities.” Of $46.6 billion appropriated by Congress for rental relief, only $7.7 billion has been distributed according to data released last month by the department.

Asian Americans Blame Trump But Not Republicans for Discrimination

In yesterday’s brief we covered a POLITICO/Morning Consult poll that found that Asian Americans are increasingly cohere as a voting bloc in the wake of a pandemic year characterized by greater visibility and fear of violence. According to a follow up Politico article, the poll also found that while Asian-Americans blame Trump for a perceived increase in discrimination, they do not blame the Republican party more widely (Politico). Politico writes, “A majority of Asian American/Pacific Islander voters found the former president largely responsible for anti-AAPI discrimination during last year’s spike in violence amid the Covid pandemic. But that animus didn’t translate down the ballot, with a far lower percentage of AAPI voters saying the same about Republican lawmakers, according to the survey.” The survey found that 56% said Trump was a major reason for discrimination, but only 33% said the same of Republicans while 31% said the same about Republican legislators. Politico writes, “The disconnect could be a function of Trump’s outsized persona within the party and his explicit use of racist terms about the pandemic, according to Asian American activists and academics. From ‘kung flu’ to ‘China virus,’ Trump’s rhetoric around the pandemic became a major factor in pushing Asian Americans to get more politically engaged in 2020.”

Bonus Read: “As meat prices continue to rise, Biden administration takes aim at Big Chicken,” (WaPo).

U.S. Economy

Pandemic-Related Inflation Pressures Slow, But Broader Pressures Remain

The Wall Street Journal reports that pandemic-related pressures driving inflation have begun to slow, but even as they do, broader inflationary pressures remain (WSJ). The Journal writes, “That is the message from a slew of alternative inflation measures that strip away price changes due to idiosyncratic swings in supply and demand, and home in on longer-lasting pressures.” Brent Meyer, an economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, stated, “All of these measures have moved from signaling price stability to signaling sharp accelerations in underlying inflation.” Not everyone is concerned with some seeing the trends as a return to normal. Blerina Uruci, senior U.S. economist at Barclays, told the Journal, “To now see price pressures picking up, but not at extremely worrying levels—it’s progress.” 

Cheap Appliances in Short Supply, As Companies Prioritize Expensive Products Amid Supply Chain Disruptions

As the global economy wrestles with supply chain disruptions, it is becoming difficult to obtain cheap appliances (WSJ). The reason is that as the Wall Street Journal explains, “companies that make products from lawn mowers to barbecue grills are prioritizing higher-priced models, in some cases making cheaper alternatives harder or impossible to find, company executives, retailers and analysts say.” Whirlpool Corp., for example, has said it is shifting to pricier products as it seeks to offset rising costs. The Journal similarly notes, “Auto makers and other companies, faced with strapped suppliers, are directing limited parts to their highest-margin products.”

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “Burned Out? Maybe You Should Care Less About Your Job,” (WSJ).

With Mandate in Place, 96% of New York Teachers Are Vaccinated

With New York City’s vaccine mandate for school staff now in place, New York City Mayor Bill De Blasio announced that thousands of teachers have now gotten their vaccines, touting the overall vaccine rate (NYT). According to De Blasio, 96% of teachers have now been vaccinated along with 99% of principals. Among all full-time school employees, 95% are vaccinated. The Times writes, “New York’s mandate, which took effect when the school day started on Monday, is the mayor’s first attempt at requiring vaccination without a test-out option for any city workers. It could lay the groundwork for a much broader requirement for the city’s vast work force.” At his press conference, De Blasio stated, “These mandates work, and we’re going to consider in the days ahead what else makes sense to do.”

Analysis & Arguments

Justin Esarey criticizes the “myth” that democracies handled the pandemic poorly (Atlantic).

Marta Martinez writes on the domestic workers left out of the economic recovery (New Republic).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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