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July 21, 2022 - Brief Issue 351
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
MIS-C Among Children Disappearing in Latest Covid Wave, Vaccination Helps (Health & Science)
Policymakers, Scientists Trying to Keep Up with Changing Virus (Health & Science)
In NYC, Cases Up 14% in Two Weeks (Health & Science)
U.K. Inflation Hits 40-Year High (Around the World)
Africa Wants to Produce its Own Vaccines, But Can’t Find Buyers (Around the World)
Micronesia Has First Coronavirus Outbreak, Last of Bigger Nations to Do So (Around the World)
Australians Told to Work From Home Amid Rise in Hospitalizations (Around the World)
States Lack Plans as Covid Cases Surge (U.S. Government & Politics)
Home Prices Hit a Record High in June; Sales Decline (U.S. Economy)
Chipotle Closes Store That Was Seeking to Unionize (U.S. Economy)
Overdose Deaths Surged Among Black and Native Americans (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 90,046,834 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,025,741 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 599,289,113 vaccine doses, with 78.5% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 67.1% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.8% have received at least one dose, and 77% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 48.1% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 28.5% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 566,858,514 cases of coronavirus, with 6,380,985 deaths.
MIS-C Among Children Disappearing in Latest Covid Wave, Vaccination Helps
A serious complication of Covid-19 in children, inflammation known as MIS-C, seems to be fading with the latest wave of infections in the United States. The complication follows a Covid-19 infection. It doesn’t appear until weeks after the initial illness but is quite serious as it causes inflammation in organs like the heart, lungs, kidneys, and brain. According to the CDC, MIS-C is affecting fewer children as a proportion of known Covid-19 cases compared to earlier waves of infection (WSJ). Average daily reported cases of MIS-C haven’t risen above one or two since March. Pediatric infectious-disease doctors and researchers said a buildup of immunity and changes to the virus are both likely playing a role. In the U.S., 70 children have died from MIS-C since the pandemic began.
The lower rates of MIS-C are being reported elsewhere, too. In England, hospital admissions for MIS-C were at one per week in May, despite high Covid-19 case numbers. A small Danish study published in JAMA Pediatrics in June found that from January to March this year, vaccinated children were significantly less likely than unvaccinated ones to develop MIS-C after infection with Covid-19.
Policymakers, Scientists Trying to Keep Up with Changing Virus
The continuous evolution of the coronavirus into variants and subvariants is making it extremely difficult for both health officials and scientists to keep up. With no certainty about which variant will be dominant this fall or winter, trying to make far-reaching policy decisions or updated booster shots has become a guessing game. In June, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration said it would likely update a coronavirus vaccine for a booster campaign before the fall surge, targeting the contagious Omicron subvariants. But in just eight weeks, the subvariant known as BA.5 has escalated to become dominant in the U.S., making up over 75% of new cases.
“None of us has a crystal ball, and we are trying to use every last ounce of what we can from predictive modeling and from the data that we have to try to get ahead of a virus that has been very crafty,” Dr. Peter Marks, a top vaccine regulator at the F.D.A., after an advisory committee recommended that the agency prioritize boosters specific to the Omicron subvariants told the New York Times. “For something that’s only nanometers in size, it’s pretty darn crafty. We’re trying to make our best judgment here.”
According to the FDA, it’s likely that whatever variant comes next will be an offshoot of the Omicron variant. It’s an educated guess at this point, but what is certain is that the virus will continue to mutate. “Viruses like SARS-CoV-2 are always evolving, and it’s a near certainty that new mutants will emerge in any given six-month time frame,” said Jesse Bloom of the Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center in Seattle. “But as long as these mutants are descendants or close relatives of BA.2 or BA.4/BA.5, then a vaccine booster based on BA.4/BA.5, as the F.D.A. has recommended, should be a much better match to them than the current vaccine, even if it’s not a perfect match.”
In NYC, Cases Up 14% in Two Weeks
Unvaccinated residents of New York City are bearing the brunt of a steep increase in cases over the past few weeks, with data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention showing the seven-day case rate as 369.8 per 100,000 people. The seven-day average was 3,828 cases two weeks ago, now it is 4,380 cases, up 14%. Doctors say that the majority of people who are getting sick, being hospitalized, and dying are unvaccinated people (ABC). Data confirms that, with the average weekly rate of cases among unvaccinated at 764.29 per 100,000 people, nearly three times higher than the rate among vaccinated and boosted, which is 278.93 per 100,000 people.
Around the World
U.K. Inflation Hits 40-Year High
The U.K.’s annual rate of inflation rose 9.4% in June compared to a year earlier, the highest rate of inflation since 1982 and higher than the 9.1% recorded in May, the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics said on Wednesday. It’s the fastest rise in prices for a Group of Seven economy since the global surge started last year, says the Wall Street Journal, and economists expect the annual rate of consumer-price inflation to increase even more. “The inflation outlook remains grim,” said Sanjay Raja, an economist at Deutsche Bank. “Our updated projections now show CPI peaking at 11.3%.”
Africa Wants to Produce its Own Vaccines, But Can’t Find Buyers
South African drugmaker Aspen Pharmacare announced last year that it had struck a deal to produce Johnson & Johnson’s Covid-19 shot, the continent’s first vaccine maker to do so. African leaders were weary of being at the mercy of other governments for shots and every country’s vaccination rate lagged well behind other nations. But after the deal was announced, no orders were placed. Politico explains that “Africa aims to produce 1.5 billion vaccine doses by 2040 to meet 60 percent of the continent’s needs, compared to the less than 1 percent it meets today. The Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that the 20-year plan will cost $30 billion. There are 20 initiatives to expand manufacturing, including plans by BioNTech and Moderna to build facilities in Kenya, Rwanda and Senegal.”
But, “if you default at first base, it doesn’t exactly inspire too much confidence going into the future,” Stavros Nicolaou, Aspen Pharmacare group senior executive for strategic trade development, told Politico. Africa-based producers aren’t able to compete with Chinese and Indian companies, who are able to make the shots for as little as $1 per shot, because their production costs are higher. That, combined with the rare but serious blood clotting side effect that regulators in Europe and the U.S. linked to the J&J vaccine, means that Aspen Pharmacare is facing an uphill battle.
Micronesia Has First Coronavirus Outbreak, Last of Bigger Nations to Do So
After more than two and a half years, the Pacific archipelago of Micronesia is experiencing its first coronavirus outbreak. It’s the final nation in the world with a population over 100,000 to have an outbreak. Its geographical isolation and strict border controls protected the country up to this point, but the more transmissible Omicron variant seems to have finally breached the country’s defenses (NBC). On Tuesday authorities said the state of Kosrae recorded 25 positive cases and an additional 10 people from a single family tested positive after medical teams conducted contact tracing. The outbreak occurred just two weeks before Micronesia planned to end its quarantine restrictions and reopen its borders on Aug. 1.
Australians Told to Work From Home Amid Rise in Hospitalizations
Officials in Australia are looking for ways to reduce the strain on the country’s hospitals after more than 300,000 cases were reported in the last week and the number of people hospitalized rose to near record levels. People have been urged to stay home and work remotely if possible, and to wear masks indoors (AlJazeera). Some 5,239 people are currently hospitalized with Covid-19, just under the 5,390 people recorded in January. We need to do some things differently at least for a short period of time,” Australia’s Chief Medical Officer Paul Kelly told ABC Radio on Wednesday, as he predicted the number of people admitted to hospital will soon hit an all-time high. “We know that working from home is a very key component of stopping what we call macro spreading.”
U.S. Government & Politics
Bonus Read: “‘It’s the accumulation’: The Jan. 6 hearings are wounding Trump, after all,” (Politico).
States Lack Plans as Covid Cases Surge
Politico reports that many states lack plans to address rising numbers of Covid cases amid an ongoing national wave (Politico). Politico writes, “State health officials are out of ideas,’ adding, “They’ve told people to wear masks, socially distance and avoid crowds. They’ve reminded people about the availability of life-saving therapeutics. They’ve pleaded with people to get vaccinated and boosted. As the latest and most transmissible Covid-19 variant has sent case numbers skyward, with hospitalizations and deaths also rising, the response from state officials has been largely muted, a concession to the reality that their messages rarely resonate and that most people — even, and sometimes especially, politicians — are ready to move on.” For example Louisiana’s Democratic Governor John Bel Edwards told Politico, “When you’ve said the same thing over and over about being vaccinated, being boosted, that if you’re vulnerable and you’re indoors with people who are not part of your household and you can’t distance, you need to wear a mask — I mean, the message hasn’t changed since the very beginning.” He added, “But the receptivity to the messaging, I mean, there’s only so much of that people are going to consume, and it becomes a diminishing return at some point, too.” Despite a 70% increase in cases in New York, New York’s Democratic Governor Kathy Hochul stated, “We’re on top of it. We’re not changing our policies at this time — always reserving the right to do so.”
U.S. Economy
Home Prices Hit a Record High in June; Sales Decline
In June, home prices hit a record high, according to data from the National Association of Realtors released on Wednesday (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “The median sales price of an existing home climbed to $416,000 in June, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday, up 13.4% on the year and the highest since records began in 1999.” The record prices come as sales have declined (WaPo). The Journal writes, “At the same time, sales of previously owned homes fell for a fifth straight month, dropping 5.4% in June to an annualized rate of 5.12 million, NAR said. That was lower than the number of sales recorded in all of 2019, before the Covid-19 pandemic became widespread in the U.S.” The Washington Post notes, “The reports add to signs the once-hot housing market is in the midst of a slowdown and offer hints of what the next phase might look like as the Federal Reserve pushes aggressively to tamp down soaring inflation. While central bankers are specifically raising interest rates to cool an overheated economy, such tinkering runs the risk of tipping the nation into recession and icing consumers — who as a result have far less buying power — out of the housing market.” Bonus Read; “Mortgage Rates Rise Again After Recording Sharp Drop,” (WSJ).
Chipotle Closes Store That Was Seeking to Unionize
The Wall Street Journal reports that Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is closing one of its stores in Maine that was in the midst of an effort to unionize (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The Augusta store had filed a petition last month with the National Labor Relations Board to vote on whether to unionize. An NLRB hearing on the issue was scheduled for Tuesday at 10 a.m. But the company informed workers in an email roughly two-and-a-half hours earlier that it was shutting down the store.” Chipotle claimed it wasn’t motivated by the unionization effort, contending, “management reviewed this situation as it would any other restaurant with these unique staffing challenges,” and adding, “We don’t have management necessary to reopen and, combined with the ongoing callouts and lack of availability of existing staff, we won’t be able to open the restaurant for the foreseeable future.” According to Laurie Schalow, Chipotle’s chief corporate affairs officer, the store had been closed to the public since June 17 because of a lack of staff. The Journal writes, “Jeff Young, a lawyer for the workers who formed the group Chipotle United, said about 10 new employees have been hired at the Augusta location since workers filed their unionization-vote petition last month.” Young added, “Closing the store abruptly without any real notice is meant as a warning to other Chipotle employees that if they organize, you could be out of a job.” As we have covered in prior briefs, the pandemic’s effect on labor markets has in many cases driven an increase in union activity. Bonus Read: “Staffers at Book Publisher HarperCollins Strike Over Contract,” (WSJ).
Bonus Read: “Interest-Rate Pain From Higher Inflation Has Barely Begun,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Overdose Deaths Surged Among Black and Native Americans
On Tuesday, the CDC released a report showing that drug overdose deaths surged during the pandemic, and that the surge was particularly prominent among Black Americans and American Indian and Alaska Native people (Politico, NYT). Politico writes, “The rates rose 44 percent in 2020 for Black people and 39 percent for American Indian and Alaska Native people, compared to 22 percent for white people.” The New York Times notes, “Measured as a portion of the population, in 2020, deaths among Black people were higher than in any other racial or ethnic group — 39 per 100,000, compared with 31 for white people, 36 for American Indian and Alaska Native people and 21 for Hispanic people.” During a briefing, Debra Houry, CDC acting principal deputy director and director of the National Center for Injury Prevention and Control, stated, “Racism — a root cause of health disparities — continues to be a serious public health risk that directly affects the wellbeing of millions of Americans, and as a result, affects the health of our entire nation.” Houry also pointed to the role of “health inequities, like unequal access to substance use treatment and treatment biases.” The study was based on data from 25 states and DC. We have covered the rise in overdose deaths during the pandemic in prior briefs.
Analysis & Arguments
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