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The Morning Risk Report: Businesses Eye Possible Political Protests as Looming 2024 Risk

By David Smagalla

 

Good morning. In 2024, the U.S. election season will enter full swing against a backdrop of political polarization. With tensions high—and partisans frequently taking their grievances to the streets—Risk & Compliance Journal’s Richard Vanderford reports that some business leaders and advisers are looking warily at the risks.

  • The background: Many U.S. cities last year saw large demonstrations on contentious topics, from abortion to climate change to the conflict in Gaza. Public protest on political issues is a quintessentially American activity, though not always cost-free.
     
  • What business leaders are thinking: U.S. business leaders right now rank escalating political polarization generally as their second most important emerging risk worry after generative artificial intelligence, according to a report published recently by Gartner, a research firm that surveyed senior executives and risk managers.
     
  • Increased awareness: “The last few years have made everyone aware,” said Tarique Nageer, a managing director at brokerage and risk advisory firm Marsh.
     
  • What’s at stake: The 2024 election could yet be a snooze compared with the high-temperature votes of 2016 and 2020. But political violence experts at insurance and consulting firms are also considering the possibility of a close and acrimonious contest that riles the faithful of both parties.
 

More From Risk & Compliance Journal

Gurbir Grewal, director of the SEC’s enforcement division. PHOTO: ALYSSA SCHUKAR FOR THE WALL STREET JOURNAL

  • Gurbir Grewal, director of the SEC’s enforcement division, spoke with Risk & Compliance Journal’s Mengqi Sun about the next stage in record-keeping violations enforcement and the pursuit of cryptocurrency-related misconduct.
     
  • Darren Weiss, president of Verano Holdings, one of the largest cannabis businesses operating in the U.S., talked with R&C’s David Smagalla about the evolving cannabis industry and the challenges it will face in 2024.
     
  • A U.S. executive order authorizes possible new sanctions targeting Russia, including against foreign banks that help finance the country’s military-industrial base, R&C’s Richard Vanderford reports.
 
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Insurance 2024: On the Precipice of Transformation

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“We expect financial institutions will undertake every effort to ensure that they are not witting or unwitting facilitators of circumvention and evasion.”

— Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, on an executive order late last month that authorized possible new sanctions targeting Russia, including against foreign banks that help finance the country’s military-industrial base.
 

Outlook 2024

CREDIT: Getty Images

As we kick off 2024, WSJ Pro takes a look at the big issues companies are facing, and what you can do to tackle the challenges of the new year.

See our Outlook for 2024 below for insights into everything from controlling costs and managing talent to strengthening supply chains, bolstering cybersecurity and making the right tech and clean-energy investments.

  • From managing talent and controlling costs to monitoring macroeconomic trends and forging new partnerships, corporate finance chiefs are girding for volatility and uncertainty ahead.
     
  • Companies in 2023 saw rising cybersecurity threats, rising regulation and rising costs for cyber insurance, while dealing with tight budgets and a tighter labor market. The year ahead will bring no letup.
     
  • The past year was a downer for mergers and acquisitions, which plunged to the lowest level in a decade, but deal makers are hopeful that 2024 could be better following the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward potential interest-rate cuts in the year ahead.
     
  • Corporate technology leaders say they will continue to prioritize efficiency and savings in 2024 as their budgets remain under scrutiny even amid signs of an improving economy.
     
  • New environmental, social and corporate-governance disclosure rules can be ‘mind-blowing,’ leaving finance executives to determine reporting requirements even as the list of unknowns grows.
     
  • Companies weighed down with too much debt may be able to avoid bankruptcy in 2024, thanks to an easing in monetary policy the Federal Reserve is expected to unroll in coming months.
     

More in WSJ Pro’s 2024 outlook:

  • In 2024, FASB to Nudge Forward Projects on Software, Compensation and Green Credits
  • Low Battery Metal Prices Set to Persist in 2024, Adding Friction to Energy Transition
  • Retailers Are Bracing for Their Postholiday Returns Hangover
  • New Disruptions, Geopolitics Hang Over 2024 Supply Chains
  • Will 2024 Mark the End of the ‘Digital Agency’?
  • Private Equity Faces Gloomy Fundraising Forecast for 2024
  • LPs Doubt Venture Funds’ Startup Valuations
 ‏‏‎ ‎
24%

The percentage gain in the S&P 500 for 2023, just 0.6% from its January 2022 record.

 

What Else Matters

  • U.S. antitrust cases against tech giants Google and Meta Platforms are expected to come to a head in 2024, likely producing long-awaited rulings that could shape the legacies of top Biden administration regulators.
     
  • Almost no one thought 2023 would be a blockbuster year for stocks. They could hardly have been more wrong.
     
  • Control of the House, the Senate and the presidency are all up for grabs in the 2024 elections, a rare instance of Republicans and Democrats battling for all three levers of elected power in Washington.
     
  • Across the globe, record numbers of migrants are seeking safety and economic opportunity—and prompting a political backlash.
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About Us

Follow us on X at @WSJRisk. Follow Risk & Compliance editor David Smagalla @DSmagalla_DJ and reporters Mengqi Sun @_MengqiSun, Dylan Tokar @dgtokar and Richard Vanderford @VanderfordRich.

You can reach us by replying to any newsletter, or email David at david.smagalla@wsj.com.

 
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