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The Intelligent Investor
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Good morning.
One reason people tend to scoff at innovation is that, when technologies are young, it can be hard to tell the winning ideas apart from the wild ones.
Some of the first airplanes were shaped like bats or kites, powered by steam. (Give me a break!) Another was made of wood and fabric, with modified bicycle chains to power the propellers. (That was the Wright brothers!)
I'm pretty sure, however, that when a guy invents a cryptocurrency as a joke and calls it SCAM, it shouldn't shoot up to a reported market "value" of $70 million. Nor should dogecoin and other so-called alt-coins be worth billions when they have little if any practical use.
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Poster (late 19th century), Albertina Museum, Vienna
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A lot of the buyers probably figure someone even crazier would buy their coins from them at an even higher price, and some of them have been right. But this kind of speculation is so cynical that it can't end well. Real innovation isn't driven by people who regard what they're doing as a joke.
What's more contagious than Covid? Clowning around in the financial markets.
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Want to Get Rich Quick? Who Can Stop You?
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My column last weekend pointed out that a good financial adviser can help you stay sane when markets go mad.
I've written before on the right questions to ask an adviser, but this column got the best feedback:
Financial adviser Peter Kranzler commented:
"Ask to see your adviser’s own portfolio": That's good advice. No client has ever asked to see what I owned. If they looked, they would see that I own the same investments they do. A good adviser will eat his own cooking.
...to which reader Andrew Strutynsky replied:
Good admission, Mr. Kranzler. Never eat at a restaurant where the help orders out.
Even if you don't use a financial adviser, I hope you have a trusted friend or family member who can talk you out of reckless risks. Now might be an excellent time to see what the people you admire most think of your latest investing idea—before you pull the trigger.
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Should Warren and Charlie Stay or Go?
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Last week's question was:
Should Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger step aside? Why or why not?
I wasn't surprised to see that roughly 90% of you think the chairman and vice-chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. should stay right where they are. Here are some of the best thoughts you shared, pro and con:
Is there another CEO in the world that someone would pay $4.6 million to have lunch with? I doubt it. Question answered. —Brandon Bray, Alexandria, Ky.
No, they should not step aside. Buffett and Munger are still putting up numbers.... And I won’t discredit that just because they don’t believe in the same investments that people in my generation do. —Aaron Parks, Commerce Township, Mich.
Human nature might not ever change, but technology does. Where would Berkshire be today if their lieutenants did not make them buy Apple stock (a business Warren said he didn't understand, at the time)? —Frederick Warburg, Boston
They don’t have to step aside. We are not ‘forced’ to invest in their suggestions. If you don’t trust their recommendations, then move on. Let them do what makes them happy👍.
—Joan Glover, Lehigh Valley, Pa.
I would prefer [a transition] to happen while Buffett was around to take heat and use his own halo to give time to the new guy. —Harish Parande, Cumming, Ga.
Sometimes society loses respect based on a person’s age, when perhaps the respect should increase. —Kathy Tyler
Should we be more humble after failing to outperform the market for as long as Buffett and Munger? I certainly think so. —Joshua Mora, Columbus, Ga.
Of the few remaining voices of sanity and reason, they are the only ones with a megaphone. How can we afford to lose them? —Justus Schirmacher, Frankfurt, Germany
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Be well and invest well,
Jason
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What's the most valuable thing your financial adviser has done for you?
Positive answers only, please.
Just hit reply to this email to share your thoughts. Please include your name and city.
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Some Insights You Shouldn't Miss
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Claude Raguet Hirst (1855-1942), "Still Life with Bowl," Museum of Art and Archaeology, University of Missouri
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Here are some of the best things I found over the past week outside The Wall Street Journal:
Here are some of the best things I found recently in The Wall Street Journal:
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David F. Swensen, 2012.
Photo: Peter Foley / Bloomberg
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The investing world lost a giant last week when David Swensen, head of investing for the Yale University endowment, died at age 67.
Mr. Swensen developed what became known as the "Yale model," based on deep research, wide diversification, and bravery during bear markets.
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During downturns as far back as 1987, Mr. Swensen showed that "the time to put the pedal to the metal is when there’s a dearth of capital and you have distressed sellers," says Ellen Shuman, co-founder of Edgehill Endowment Partners, who worked for him from 1986 to 1998.
Paula Volent, head of the roughly $2 billion Bowdoin College endowment, worked for Mr. Swensen from 1997 to 2000. "He used to say, 'Benjamin Franklin was wrong in saying you can't get away from death and taxes. An endowment can!' "
"David realized that Yale had no need to worry about liquidity, because it isn't going to die," says Charles Ellis, a longtime member of the university's investment committee. "And everybody else does die, so that's a comparative advantage he was determined to exploit."
Mr. Swensen believed that an institution like Yale, with a perpetual investing horizon, should favor "alternative" assets that might offer an extra return because they can't be readily traded like stocks and bonds, such as private-equity and venture-capital funds.
In exchange, Mr. Swensen drove hard bargains: By committing money for years at a time, he got fund managers to cut their fees. His message was: "I’m paying you less, because I'm locking up our capital for longer," recalls investor Ted Seides, who worked for Mr. Swensen from 1992 to 1997.
Twenty years ago, the typical educational endowment had half its assets in stocks and one-quarter in bonds, according to the National Association of College and University Business Officers.
As Yale's strategy crushed the public markets, other institutions shamelessly copied Mr. Swensen. Endowments stampeded out of U.S. stocks and ditched their bonds, replacing them with hedge funds, private-equity and venture funds. Today they have, on average, more than half their assets in these illiquid holdings:
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Percentage allocations by asset class among educational endowments. Fixed income includes cash; real assets include natural resources, commodities, timber. Source: NACUBO
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As an old saying goes, "Every bad idea on Wall Street starts out as a good idea." What worked for Yale, because of its ample resources and Mr. Swensen's brilliance, won't work for every pension or endowment. Smaller investors can't get access to the great managers Yale could.
So the types of alternative assets that worked brilliantly for Mr. Swensen underperformed, on average, in nearly every year after they became so popular:
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Source: Investment consultant Richard Ennis
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David Swensen thus leaves a mixed legacy.
He inspired imitators who had no realistic hope of equaling his success, leaving many institutions saddled with lagging assets they can't get out of.
But, as my colleagues Juliet Chung and Dawn Lim wrote:
Mr. Swensen notched an average return of 13.1% a year at Yale through June 30, 2020, outpacing the 8.8% average annual return of a traditional portfolio with 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds over the same 35-year period...the endowment’s performance under Mr. Swensen translated to gains of $45.6 billion.
And he should inspire all investors to think about their own comparative advantage. What are you better-positioned to do than most other investors? Don't try to beat them at their game; just play your game the best you can.
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Louise-Joséphine Sarazin de Belmont, "View from the Heights of Père Lachaise Cemetery" (ca. 1842-1859), Wikimedia Commons
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Have a question you'd like me to answer? Want to weigh in on what you just read? Got a tip on something that I or my colleagues should investigate? Itching to tell me I'm wrong about something?
Just reply to this email and I'll see your note. Don't forget to include your name and city.
Image credit: Mary Cassatt, "The Letter" (ca. 1890), Art Institute of Chicago
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Caspar David Friedrich, "Evening" (1820-21), Wikimedia Commons
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It is essential to the well-being of a society that the whole should be less mad than the parts.
— Edgar Wind
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