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February 2, 2022 - Brief Issue 284

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Hospitalizations Fall, but Deaths Rise (Health & Science)

Vaccine for Children Under 5 Could be Available by the End of February in the U.S. (Health & Science)

Immunocompromised Have Not Been Able to Receive Fourth Dose (Health & Science)

Denmark and Norway Lift Covid Rules as Cases Soar (Around the World)

Athletes and Coaches Arrive in Beijing for the Olympics, Test Positive at Higher Rates Than Other Travelers (Around the World)

Covid Visits the Pacific Islands (Around the World)

Australian Prison Sees Major Outbreak (Around the World)

Secretary of Defense to Republican Governors: National Guard Troops Must Get Vaccinated (U.S. Government & Politics)

Navy Secretary Tests Positive for Covid (U.S. Government & Politics)

Biden Border Plan Sends Venezuelan Migrants to Colombia, Using Pandemic Health Authority (U.S. Government & Politics)

Great Resignation Continued in December Amid High Number of Job Openings (U.S. Economy)

AMC Stock Jumps Amid Holiday Revenue News (U.S. Economy)

Coffee Prices Increase Amid Supply and Weather Issues (U.S. Society)

Schools Reconsider Test to Stay Policies (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 75,350,359 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 890,770 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 539,921,122 vaccine doses, with 75.4% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 63.8% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 87% have received at least one dose, and 74.2% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 41.7% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 381,724,054 cases of coronavirus, with 5,688,009 deaths.

U.S. Hospitalizations Fall, but Deaths Rise

Health officials believe the Omicron wave of the pandemic is ebbing in the United States as the number of patients hospitalized with Covid-19 falls, even though deaths from the virus are still on the rise. For the 11th consecutive day, the seven-day average of hospital patients with Covid-19 fell; 140,450 people were hospitalized on Monday according to the Department of Health and Human Services (WSJ). The seven-day average of daily recorded infections has fallen for the past week. The seven-day average number of daily deaths from Covid-19 continued to rise, with 2,439 people dead on Monday, which is the highest number since mid-February one year ago. Hospitalizations are down by about half in Maryland and by about 25% in Virginia but hospitals are still struggling to cope with the number of patients due to staffing crises (WaPo). Bonus Listen: “Listen to ‘The Daily’: Dr. Fauci discusses what the next stage of the pandemic might look like,” (NYT).

Vaccine for Children Under 5 Could be Available by the End of February in the U.S.

According to a report by the Washington Post, coronavirus vaccines for children under the age of five could be available by the end of February, sooner than expected. On Tuesday, Pfizer and its partner BioNTech requested emergency-use authorization from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for their vaccine for use in children from six months to five years (NYT). If approved, it would be the first shot available to children in that age group. The FDA encouraged the companies to apply so that regulators could review the data on a two-shot regimen even though the companies have been testing a third dose. They’ve found that two doses does not prompt a strong enough immune response in all age groups. But data on the third dose will not be available until late March. “We know that two doses isn’t enough, and we get that,” said one of the people familiar with the situation. “The idea is, let’s go ahead and start the review of two doses. If the data holds up in the submission, you could start kids on their primary baseline months earlier than if you don’t do anything until the third-dose data comes in.”

Immunocompromised Have Not Been Able to Receive Fourth Dose

Individuals who are immunocompromised are being urged to get a fourth dose of the coronavirus vaccine by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Yet, many have been turned away at pharmacies across the country, according to a report by CNN. The CDC estimates that there are 7 million immune-compromised Americans. The CDC has mentioned its fourth shot protocol for the immune-compromised on weekly conference calls with pharmacy groups since October, according to Kristen Nordlund, a CDC spokesperson. But it plans to reiterate that message this week during the weekly conference call in hopes of clearing up any confusion. 

Around the World

Denmark and Norway Lift Covid Rules as Cases Soar

On Tuesday, Denmark and Norway lifted most of their remaining Covid restrictions even as cases rise in both countries (NYT). Denmark removed its mask mandate and now lets businesses decide if they will require patrons to show health passes with their vaccination or recovery status. The Danish government said it no longer considers Covid a “socially critical disease.” In Norway, working from home will no longer be required and the cap of 10 visitors in private homes was removed. Fully vaccinated travelers entering the country no longer need to test for Covid-19 ahead of their arrival. 

Both countries have seen spikes in cases because of the Omicron variant, but neither has seen a corresponding rise in hospitalizations. The Omicron subvariant BA.2 has fueled a surge in Denmark and the country has averaged about 44,000 new cases a day, up 70% from just two weeks ago. 

Athletes and Coaches Arrive in Beijing for the Olympics, Test Positive at Higher Rates Than Other Travelers

Olympic organizers said on Tuesday that athletes and team officials are testing positive for Covid-19 at much higher rates than other people arriving in China, with official figures showing 11 positive tests among 379 athletes and officials arriving Monday (Time). Anyone who tests positive is taken into isolation hotels and is at risk of missing their events. Time writes: “The positive test rate of 2.9% for athletes and officials compared to 0.66% for Olympic ‘stakeholders,’ a group which includes workers and media, in the same period. There were 1,059 people in that category. Over a three-day period from Saturday through Monday, the positivity rate for athletes and officials was 40% higher than other Olympic arrivals.” So far, a total of 200 positive tests have been recorded at the Olympics since Jan. 23. Bonus Read: “U.S. bobsledder Elana Meyers Taylor ‘avoided covid for two years.’ Then she arrived in Beijing,” (WaPo).

Covid Visits the Pacific Islands

The Pacific island nation of Kiribati spent 2021 with its borders closed to keep the coronavirus out, but in January 2022, the country  opened its doors for a trial run. The first passenger plane for 10 months was allowed to land in the country on Jan. 14, but the flight was carrying more than just passengers: it seems that the virus hitched a ride in spite of strict testing and quarantine measures, setting off a wave of infections in the archipelagos. “Thirty-six out of 54 passengers on the flight to Kiribati tested positive on arrival. Six others tested positive in quarantine. That’s despite the travelers spending two weeks in pre-departure quarantine, and only being allowed on the flight after testing negative for COVID-19,” writes Time. It’s unclear how the virus then spread to the community, but on Monday the government confirmed 96 new cases, bringing the total to 460. 

The outbreak is a warning to other Pacific island nations where border controls have been effective so far but the Omicron variant is knocking at the door. Tuvalu and Nauru still haven’t recorded a single case of Covid-19 and Micronesia and Tonga have recorded just one each. Palau has one of the highest vaccination rates in the world, with 99% of the adult population vaccinated. Samoa has remained relatively Covid-free for the past two years but the government suspended repatriation flights after returning residents tested positive after landing in the country. In the Solomon Islands, five people died in January 2022, the first Covid-19 deaths in the nation. 

Australian Prison Sees Major Outbreak

In the United States, Covid outbreaks have hit prisons particularly hard, as we have covered in prior briefs, but the risk to prisoners is not unique to the United States. Australia is now wrestling with a major outbreak in its Alice Springs Correctional Center located in a remote part of Australia’s Northern Territory (NYT). According to David Woodroffe, the principal legal officer of the government-funded North Australian Aboriginal Justice Agency, 300 of the more than 600 prisoners held there have Covid. The outbreak interacts with the dynamics of Australia’s indigenous population, who are disproportionately incarcerated and at higher risk for Covid. The New York Times writes, “By some estimates, Indigenous Australians are the most incarcerated people in the world. They make up 3.3 percent of the country’s population but account for about 30 percent of its inmates. In the Northern Territory, nearly 85 percent of those imprisoned are Indigenous.” While most of the Alice Springs prisoners have received two vaccinations, the Times notes, “Indigenous Australians, who are disproportionately represented in the country’s prison population, also have higher rates of chronic disease that place them at higher risk of complications from Covid-19.”

Bonus Read: “Pregnant journalist says she’s returning to New Zealand after strict covid rules left her in Afghanistan,” (WaPo).

U.S. Government & Politics

Secretary of Defense to Republican Governors: National Guard Troops Must Get Vaccinated

Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III sent letters to seven governors telling them that National Guard troops must be vaccinated (AP, NYT). The AP reports that the letters are nearly identical and each states that coronavirus “takes our service members out of the fight, temporarily or permanently, and jeopardizes our ability to meet mission requirements.” The AP writes, “The letters, which have not been publicly released, come as the military services begin to ramp up the number of active-duty troops being discharged for refusing the vaccine. Nearly 600 Marines, airmen and sailors have been thrown out of the military or dismissed from entry-level training at boot camps as of last week.” Two letters (those to the governors of Alaska and Texas) noted that ongoing lawsuits limited what the letters could say. The AP explains, “Texas, Oklahoma and Alaska filed lawsuits challenging the military’s vaccine mandate, but a federal judge has already rejected the Oklahoma challenge.” The letters went to the governors of Wyoming, Mississippi, Iowa, Idaho, Nebraska, Alaska, and Texas. All seven governors are Republicans.

Navy Secretary Tests Positive for Covid

On Monday, the Navy released a statement saying that Secretary of the Navy Carlos Del Toro had tested positive for coronavirus (Politico). Politico writes, “Del Toro returned from official travel on Friday afternoon, the statement said, and had received negative tests on Jan. 21 and the morning of Jan. 28. He was Pascagoula, Miss., last week, where he toured Ingalls Shipbuilding. Mississippi Republican Rep. Steven Palazzo and Sens. Roger Wicker and Cindy Hyde-Smith also took part in the shipyard tour.” Del Toro is fully vaccinated and according to the statement received his booster in October. Del Toro stated, “I am following my physician’s instructions and will quarantine for the next five days at a minimum in accordance with CDC guidelines.” He said he would attend any “necessary” meetings virtually.

Biden Border Plan Sends Venezuelan Migrants to Colombia, Using Pandemic Health Authority

Under Biden’s border plan, the government will send Venezuelans taken into custody along the southern border to Colombia if they had previously resettled there (CNN, WaPo). DHS announced the decision on Monday. The Washington Post writes, “Venezuelans have crossed into the United States in recent months in record numbers, typically after flying to a Mexican border city and walking across to surrender to American authorities. U.S. Customs and Border Protection stopped 24,819 Venezuelans in December, up from 206 a year earlier.” The move relies on health authorities provided during the pandemic under Title 42, which the Post describes as an “emergency provision” that “allows authorities to bypass immigration proceedings without affording asylum seekers a chance to seek protection under U.S. law.” A DHS statement noted that returns had begun, saying, “On January 27, 2022, the Department of Homeland Security returned two Venezuelan nationals to Colombia, where they had previously resided.” The U.S. is unable to return migrants to Venezuela itself because the U.S. does not recognize the government of Nicolas Maduro. Title 42 expulsions have been a sore point with immigration activists, and had previously drawn protests when the Biden administration used them to respond to an increase in Haitian migration. 

Bonus Read: “Native American tribes reach landmark opioid deal with Johnson & Johnson, drug distributors for up to $665 million,” (WaPo).

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “Consumer Pessimism Grows as Inflation Accelerates,” (WSJ).

Great Resignation Continued in December Amid High Number of Job Openings

On Tuesday, the Department of Labor released data showing that 4.3 million Americans quit their jobs in December 2021 and that there were 10.9 million job openings that month (WaPo, WSJ). The numbers show that the so-called Great Resignation continued as 2021 ended. The number of people quitting did fall slightly from the record high of 4.5 million people. While job openings remain common, the Wall Street Journal notes, “Separate private-sector data for January showed that employers pulled back on demand for workers last month. There were 10.8 million job openings on Jan. 21, according to an analysis of postings by jobs website Indeed, a decrease of more than a million from its estimate for the end of December.” Economists surveyed by the Journal expected hiring to have cooled in January. The Washington Post notes that the recent Omicron surge may have contributed to the number of people quitting by reemphasizing the pandemic’s impact on caregivers, writing, “Parents scrambled to navigate their work lives as schools and day cares closed because of growing virus cases. Employees grappled with sudden outbreaks at work, with little of the social safety net protections or pandemic-controlling measures that helped cushion the blow from earlier waves. And the vaccine-evading omicron variant shook the nation’s confidence that a future without the virus was on the near horizon.” 

AMC Stock Jumps Amid Holiday Revenue News

AMC Entertainment Holdings, which owns AMC movie theaters, saw its stock rise 13% after the company announced that it expects strong fourth quarter revenue numbers driven by movie going over the holidays (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Chief Executive Adam Aron said the quarterly results will be the company’s strongest since before the Covid-19 pandemic gutted the movie-theater industry almost two years ago. The emergence of the Omicron variant likely kept some moviegoers at home toward the end of 2021 and in the beginning of 2022.” The release of the new Spiderman movie may have played an important role in the revenue numbers, and the Journal reports, “The company said Tuesday it expects fourth-quarter revenue to come in around $1.17 billion, up from $162.5 million reported in the same period a year earlier but still shy of the $1.46 billion in sales reported in the fourth quarter of 2019.”

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “Even if they can find a test, not everyone wants to know they have COVID,” (NPR).

Coffee Prices Increase Amid Supply and Weather Issues

The Wall Street Journal reports that coffee prices are increasing as a result of drought and poor weather in coffee growing regions, but also because of ongoing pandemic-related supply chain disruptions (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Arabica coffee futures closed Tuesday at $2.37 a pound, after wrapping up January a little below monthly highs of $2.44. Futures traded at around $1.30 during the same time last year. They finished 2021 up 76%, the largest annual percentage gain since 2010, bringing higher prices for yet another raw material at coffee shops and breakfast tables.” According to the Journal, weather dynamics including a drought followed by frost in Brazil’s critical coffee growing regions are playing a primary role, but the price has also risen due to ongoing pandemic-related supply chain disruptions.

Schools Reconsider Test to Stay Policies

The New York Times reports that some schools which had been operating under test to stay rules that allow students to remain in class with a negative test after a close-contact, are moving away from such policies in part due to difficulties obtaining enough tests amid the Omicron surge (NYT). The Times notes, “Vermont and Massachusetts are turning away from tests that are given in school and sent to labs, in favor of rapid home tests.” Massachusetts’ Republican Governor Charlie Baker has taken the stance that schools can focus on identifying symptomatic people rather than engaging in contact tracing and test to stay policies. The Times writes, “Dr. Westyn Branch-Elliman, an associate professor at Harvard Medical School who advises the Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, said the state’s test-to-stay program, while previously ‘wildly successful,’ no longer made sense. At-home testing of students would be the ‘wave of the future,’ she added.” Meanwhile, Utah suspended required testing for schools in January citing a lack of available tests. The Times writes, “Utah’s state testing sites were overrun in mid-January with a surge of coronavirus cases, and Gov. Spencer Cox called on most people in the state to stop getting tested, even if they had Covid symptoms.”

Bonus Read: “Mardi Gras in the Covid Era: The Smarter Way to Join This Year’s Festivities,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Paul Krugman writes on Covid, Bitcoin, and the “Antisocial Right” (NYT).

Jacob Stern and Katherine J. Wu critique the way endemicity is being discussed (Atlantic).

Glenn Kessler examines the spread of falsehoods about athletes dying of Covid (WaPo).

Erik Wemple writes on the false reporting of ivermectin effectiveness (WaPo).

Richard Danzig, Jeremy Farrar and Richard Hatchett discuss the possibility of only being halfway through the pandemic (WaPo).

Rich Lowry argues that Biden is constrained from acknowledging good news on the pandemic (National Review).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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