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October 28, 2021 - Brief Issue 258

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

The Coronavirus Daily Brief will be on hiatus November 1-4.

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Top Headlines

Merck’s Covid Pill Licensed to Nonprofit to Boost Global Supply (Health & Science)

Large Study Finds Antidepressant Lowers Risk of Hospitalization from Covid (Health & Science)

CDC Makes Millions of People Eligible for Boosters Based on Mood Disorders (Health & Science)

Ukrainian Town’s Mass Vaccination Experiment Worked (Around the World)

Singapore Investigates Sudden Surge (Around the World)

Slovenia Warns of Lockdown as Infections Climb (Around the World)

Federal Judge Tosses Out Southwest Airlines Pilots’ Petition Over Vaccine Mandate (U.S. Government & Politics)

School Boards Limit Public Comments Amid Raucous Meetings (U.S. Government & Politics)

Steel Companies Expect Hot Market Into 2022 (U.S. Economy)

2020 Saw Cigarette Sales Rise for the First Time in Two Decades (U.S. Society)

Mandatory Arbitration Cases Surged in 2020, But Workers Only Won in 1.6% of Cases (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 45,705,087 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 741,242 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 416,154,424 vaccine doses, with 66.5% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 57.5% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 79.7% have received at least one dose, and 69.1% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 7.6% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 245,164,954 cases of coronavirus, with 4,975,102 deaths.

Merck’s Covid Pill Licensed to Nonprofit to Boost Global Supply

Pharmaceutical company Merck will license its promising Covid-19 drug molnupiravir to a United Nations-backed nonprofit, The Medicines Patent Pool (MPP), in an effort to expand poor countries’ access to the drug. MPP will work with multiple drugmakers to produce molnupiravir for 105 nations, including all of Africa, Cambodia, and Pakistan (WSJ). Merck has said it can manufacture 10 million courses of the drug by the end of 2021 but it's unclear how many doses can be produced under the licensing deal; MPP predicted that some manufacturers will be able to start deliveries this year. Molnupiravir is the first pill that people infected with Covid-19 could take at home to prevent hospitalization.

“From the beginning we knew we wanted to expand the geographic footprint of our generic partners,” said Paul Schaper, Merck’s executive director of global pharmaceutical public policy. He said Merck’s supply agreements and licensing deals will provide “global access in high-income and low- and-middle income countries at the same time.” Drug-access advocates welcomed the deal but said it doesn't go far enough and that governments should waive intellectual property rights to speed up production.

Large Study Finds Antidepressant Lowers Risk of Hospitalization from Covid

A large clinical trial found that a common and cheap antidepressant medication called fluvoxamine lowered the chances that high-risk Covid-19 patients would be hospitalized. Researchers in Canada, the U.S., and Brazil published the results of the study on Wednesday in The Lancet Global Health. The study found that among nearly 1,500 Covid patients in Brazil who were given either fluvoxamine or a placebo, the drug reduced the need for hospitalization or prolonged medical observation by one-third (AP). The New York Times writes, “Some patients struggled to tolerate the drug and stopped taking it, the study said, raising a question among outside scientists about whether they had yet identified the ideal dose. But among those who had largely followed doctors’ orders, the benefits were even more striking. In those patients, the drug reduced the need for hospitalization by two-thirds and slashed the risk of dying: One Covid patient given fluvoxamine died, compared with 12 given a placebo.” Most patients in the study were unvaccinated and it’s unclear how well the drug would work in people who are vaccinated. Fluvoxamine is already approved for treating O.C.D in the U.S. so doctors can prescribe it “off label” to treat Covid. 

CDC Makes Millions of People Eligible for Boosters Based on Mood Disorders

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention added mood disorders to the list of conditions that put people at high risk of developing severe Covid-19 on Oct. 14. Doctors said the move was a welcome one, as the scientific seal of approval makes millions of people eligible for booster shots based on their mental health diagnosis and gives vulnerable people more of a reason to protect themselves. “This is a population that is really, really at risk due to the way that covid-19 interacts with the diagnoses,” said Lisa Dailey, executive director of the Treatment Advocacy Center. “Until the CDC put this group of disorders on their list, they would not have known that” (WaPo). The list of those qualifying for booster shots includes mostly physical conditions that make someone likely to be hospitalized, like having cancer, diabetes, or suffering from obesity. The addition of “mood disorders, including depression, and schizophrenia spectrum disorders” could put millions of Americans on notice and public health experts say it is critical for these populations to take precautions. The list of conditions is not intended to be comprehensive and has been updated frequently throughout the pandemic.

Around the World

Bonus Read: “The U.N.’s roadmap for navigating Covid and China’s Rise,” (Politico).

Ukrainian Town’s Mass Vaccination Experiment Worked

In April, Ukraine was still short of vaccines and only certain groups of the population were allowed to be vaccinated. The Health Ministry made an exception for the town of Morshyn as part of an experiment to see the effects of mass vaccination. In the small town in western Ukraine, an effort to vaccinate all 6,000 residents began. By June, 72% of the town was vaccinated -- a far higher percentage than the national rate, which was only 16% (NYT). Now, while infections, hospitalizations, and deaths are soaring across the country and lockdowns are returning, life in Morshyn is normal. Ukraine’s death rate is higher now than during the first wave of the pandemic, with an average of 538 deaths per day. Morshyn has no patients hospitalized with Covid-19 and only 19 cases, 15 of them in people who were not vaccinated.

Singapore Investigates Sudden Surge

Officials in Singapore are looking into an “unusual surge” in Covid-19 infections as 5,324 new infections were registered on Wednesday. It’s the highest number since the beginning of the pandemic. The ICU utilization rate is nearing 80%, meaning that hospital beds could soon be unavailable. The surge comes even as 84% of the population is fully vaccinated and 14% have received booster shots. "The Ministry of Health is looking into this unusual surge in cases within a relatively short window, and closely monitoring the trends for the next few days," it said in Wednesday's statement (Reuters).

Slovenia Warns of Lockdown as Infections Climb

On Wednesday Slovenia’s health minister, Janez Poklukar, warned that the country could face a nightmare scenario if the virus outbreak isn’t contained soon. With more than 3,000 new infections in the past 24 hours, the highest number since the beginning of the pandemic, Poklukar said a lockdown could be inevitable. “While we watched with fear at neighboring Italy at the start of the epidemic, we are now at a turning point because of low vaccination rates and we could easily have a Bergamo scenario,” Poklukar said (AP). Intensive care units are 92% full and officials are racing to open more Covid-19 wards. Slovenia has fully vaccinated around 53% of its 2 million people. Bonus Read: “Vaccine reluctance in Eastern Europe brings high COVID cost,” (AP). ​

U.S. Government & Politics

Federal Judge Tosses Out Southwest Airlines Pilots’ Petition Over Vaccine Mandate

On Tuesday, a federal judge dismissed a petition filed by a union representing Southwest Airlines pilots that sought an injunction on the forthcoming federal vaccine mandate (Politico). The mandate requires that all federal employees and government contractors (which covers major commercial airlines) must be vaccinated by December 8. Politico writes, “The Southwest Airlines Pilots Association had last month unsuccessfully sought exemptions to the mandate, petitioning the administration to reconsider. They argued that the vaccine could have medical side effects that could end a pilot's career. Like its sister airlines, Southwest said its contracts with the federal government require ‘full compliance with the federal vaccination directive. Employees must be fully vaccinated, or be approved for religious, medical or disability exemption, by Dec. 8 to continue employment — the same date by which federal contractors must prove they’ve been vaccinated. When their plea for an exemption failed, the union then filed an injunction in a Dallas federal court to temporarily block the vaccine mandate.” Texas District Judge Barbara M. G. Lynn called the request “premature” and stated, “Requiring Southwest employees to be vaccinated against COVID-19 will likewise improve the safety of air transportation, the efficiency of Southwest’s operations, and further the [collective bargaining agreement]’s goal of safe and reasonable working conditions for pilots. In addition, because Southwest is a federal contractor, the Vaccine Policy is required by law.” Southwest Airlines has said it will comply with the mandate, even as Texas’ Republican governor issued an order banning businesses from imposing vaccine mandates, as we covered in a prior brief.

School Boards Limit Public Comments Amid Raucous Meetings

School boards across the country are limiting their provisions for public comments, as school board meetings become a site of raucous protest over Covid policies and how issues surrounding race are taught (Politico). Politico reports, “School leaders nationwide are beginning to eye ways to rein in public commentary at local meetings in an effort to quell raucous crowds over hot-button issues like mask mandates and critical race theory. The potential changes could add more strain between school boards and the public they serve, a domain that has emerged as a fierce culture war battleground amid the coronavirus.” One Kentucky limited communication to email after a meeting resulted in a shouting match. In Brevard County, Florida, “the board is proposing rules to prevent speakers from raising signs during meetings, limit the number of speakers and how much time they have when a large number of people are scheduled to weigh in on an issue.” However, such moves have themselves generated controversy and pushback from some parents and political figures.

U.S. Economy

Steel Companies Expect Hot Market Into 2022

Steel companies expect the current booming market for steel to continue into 2022 (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “U.S. steelmakers said demand for steel will remain strong deep into next year, keeping prices high for customers such as auto and appliance makers and stoking continued investments in new mills. The extended boom in the $180 billion U.S. steel industry that began last year following the Covid-19-related shutdowns of mills is giving steelmakers more time to bring new plants into service and renew customer contracts at higher prices, executives said.” Mark Millett, chief executive of Steel Dynamics Inc. told the Journal, “We are as bullish for the fourth quarter and going into next year as we ever have been.” In October, companies also reported record quarterly profits.

U.S. Society

2020 Saw Cigarette Sales Rise for the First Time in Two Decades

In 2020, sales of cigarettes rose for the first time in two decades according to a Federal Trade Commission report (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “The number of cigarettes purchased by wholesalers and retailers rose slightly, 0.4%, to 203.7 billion from 202.9 billion in 2019.” The report did not address possible explanations for the rare rise in sales. The Journal, however, writes, “Altria Group, maker of Marlboro cigarettes, previously pointed to the pandemic as a reason people are lighting up more. Chief Executive Billy Gifford said Americans spent less money on travel, gas and entertainment last year and that fewer social engagements led to more ‘tobacco-use occasions.’” Tobacco companies also spent more on advertising. The rise may also represent a shift back to cigarettes by people who had previously vaped. The Journal explains, “People who once vaped may also have returned to regular cigarettes because of health concerns over vaping prompted by a mysterious lung illness in 2019 that was ultimately linked to vitamin E oil in marijuana vaping products. Bans on flavored vaping and increased e-cigarette taxes may have also contributed to the increase, consumers and industry officials said.”

Mandatory Arbitration Cases Surged in 2020, But Workers Only Won in 1.6% of Cases

The Washington Post reports that the pandemic saw a surge in the number of cases of mandatory arbitration between workers and their employers, but victories on the part of workers remained rare (WaPo). The Post writes, “Companies closed nearly 14,000 arbitration cases in 2020, according to the American Association for Justice, the industry group for trial lawyers. That’s 17 percent more filings year over year, in a system with no path for appeal.” Yet workers rarely received money as a result of arbitration. The Post writes, “Employees were awarded money in just 1.6 percent of arbitration cases in 2020, according to the AAJ report, which analyzed data reported by the nation’s two largest arbitration providers, the American Arbitration Association and JAMS. Decisions are final and cannot be appealed, as they can in court.” Interestingly Family Dollar was behind a substantial portion of the cases of arbitration. The Post writes, “no company engaged in it more frequently than Family Dollar: The discount chain and its parent, Dollar Tree, arbitrated 1,135 cases in 2020 — nearly a third of all U.S. cases — compared with three the year before.”

Analysis & Arguments

Mark Rothstein writes on the pandemic’s death toll among those who haven’t contracted Covid (Politico).

Katherine Eban writes on what life will be like if Covid becomes endemic (NYT).

Senator Mike Lee (R-UT) writes on the importance of work in the Covid recovery (National Review).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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