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October 14, 2021 - Brief Issue 250

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

New Study Suggests J&J Recipients Should Get Moderna or Pfizer Booster (Health & Science)

WHO Announces New Team to Investigate Virus Origins (Health & Science)

CDC Says U.S. Decline in Cases Will Continue (Health & Science)

New Zealand Reports Biggest Surge in Cases in Six Weeks (Around the World)

Melbourne Will Exit Lockdown Early Thanks to Faster-Than-Expected Vaccine Uptake (Around the World)

Russia, WHO Differ on Timeline for Approval of Sputnik V; Putin Urges Russians to Get Vaccinated (Around the World)

Global Economy Falters Due to Supply Chain Hiccups (Around the World)

U.S. Military Archbishop Says Catholics Can Refuse Vaccination on Religious Grounds (U.S. Government & Politics)

Biden Seeks to Address Supply Disruptions in Advance of Christmas (U.S. Government & Politics)

Social Security Benefits Rise 5.9% in Close to Four Decade Record Increase Amid Inflation (U.S. Government & Politics)

Federal Reserve Signals Asset Purchases May End by Mid-2022 (U.S. Economy)

WSJ Profiles the Doctor Behind NYC’s Vaccine Mandate and the Resultant Kyrie Irving Drama (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 44,684,338 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 719,546 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 404,371,247 vaccine doses, with 65.6% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 56.6% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 78.5% have received at least one dose, and 68% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 4.7% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 239,258,937 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 4,876,197 deaths.

New Study Suggests J&J Recipients Should Get Moderna or Pfizer Booster 

Those who got the Johnson & Johnson (J&J) vaccine initially would benefit from a booster dose of either the Moderna or the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, according to findings of a new study released on Wednesday. The study also found that if an individual started out with the Pfizer or Moderna shot, they could get either one as a booster dose. The study, sponsored by the National Institutes of Health, divided 458 volunteers into nine groups. “Those who initially got the two-dose Moderna vaccine got either another Moderna shot, a Pfizer shot or a Johnson & Johnson shot as a booster four to six months after their primary immunization,” NPR explains. “People who got the two-dose Pfizer vaccine got either another Pfizer shot or a Moderna or J&J booster. And people who got the one-shot J&J vaccine either got another J&J shot or a Moderna or Pfizer booster.” 

The researchers measured antibody levels of the volunteers over two weeks and four weeks after the booster shots (WaPo). Those who got the Moderna shots followed by a Moderna booster had the best immune response, followed by those who got Pfizer initially followed by Moderna, and then those who received Moderna initially followed by Pfizer. But the most significant finding was that those who initially got the J&J vaccine got the best immune response if they got a Pfizer or Moderna dose as their booster shot. The Washington Post notes, “The data could provide a road map for the 15 million people who received the Johnson & Johnson vaccine in the United States, many of whom have felt left out because the vast majority of U.S. vaccine recipients received messenger RNA vaccines from Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna."

WHO Announces New Team to Investigate Virus Origins

On Wednesday the World Health Organization named 26 scientists to a new advisory body that will try to understand the origins of the novel coronavirus and prepare for future outbreaks, saying the new group may be “our last chance” to determine the origins of the virus (Reuters). The group, which includes scientists from the U.S. and China along with 24 other nations, will investigate how the virus first infected humans and will also establish a framework for future outbreaks. “It’s a real opportunity right now to get rid of all the noise, all the politics surrounding this and focus on what we know, what we don’t know and what, urgently, we need to all focus our attention on,” Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging disease and zoonosis unit, said in an interview (WaPo). 

Politics have hampered previous efforts to uncover the origins of the virus; Beijing has even gone so far as to claim, without evidence, that the virus originated outside of China’s borders. Chinese officials have said they consider the investigation of the virus’s origins on Chinese soil complete. Chen Xu, China's ambassador to the UN in Geneva, told a separate news conference the conclusions of the joint study were "quite clear", adding that as international teams had been sent to China twice already, "it is time to send teams to other places." 

CDC Says U.S. Decline in Cases Will Continue

Covid-19 deaths and hospitalizations are expected to decline over the next four weeks according to forecasts from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CNN). The latest forecast, published Wednesday, predicts 740,000 to 762,000 reported deaths by November 6, which would be the third consecutive week of a projected decrease. While the prediction is good news, experts recommend caution as case numbers remain high, especially among children. The American Academy of Pediatrics said that children represented nearly a quarter of weekly reported cases. 

Around the World

New Zealand Reports Biggest Surge in Cases in Six Weeks

On Thursday New Zealand recorded its biggest rise in Covid-19 infections in six weeks, with a total of 71 new cases, all of which were in Auckland. Around 1.7 million people in Auckland are currently under stay-at-home orders until Monday but the surge in cases is being blamed on illegal home gatherings. "Now is not the time for complacency," Deputy Prime Minister Grant Robertson said during a media conference in Wellington, urging residents to follow the level-three rules, under which most people are required to stay at home unless they have urgent reasons to go out (Reuters). Around 59% of New Zealand’s eligible population has been fully vaccinated. 

Melbourne Will Exit Lockdown Early Thanks to Faster-Than-Expected Vaccine Uptake

On Thursday Victoria state premier Daniel Andrews said that Melbourne will exit months of lockdown next week--ahead of schedule--because vaccine uptake has been faster than expected. The state is nearing the 70% threshold for fully vaccinated eligible adults, a milestone set by authorities previously as needed to end the stay-at-home order. Originally, authorities predicted the target would be met in late October. "We will deliver the (reopening) road map ... You get vaccinated and we will open up and I do what I say," Victoria Premier Andrews said, speaking during a media briefing in Melbourne, the state capital (Reuters). The early exit from lockdown will come even as Victoria logged the highest number of new cases since August, when the outbreak of the Delta variant began. The state recorded 2,297 new cases on Thursday.

Russia, WHO Differ on Timeline for Approval of Sputnik V; Putin Urges Russians to Get Vaccinated 

Russia is ready and waiting to provide up to 300 million doses of its Sputnik V vaccine to COVAX, the vaccine sharing initiative, even though the World Health Organization hasn’t approved the vaccine for emergency use yet and WHO and Russian officials seem to have different timelines in mind for when that approval might come. Russian Direct Investment Fund CEO Kirill Dmitriev told the AP that he expects WHO to approve Sputnik V in the next two months. But Dr. Mariangela Simao, the WHO’s assistant director-general for access to health products, did not commit to that timetable. She said the approval process for Sputnik V is on hold until legal procedures are sorted out. “The timeline will depend when we get these legal procedures done and then we will be able to assess, with the applicant and the manufacturer, what would be the next step and how long it will take,” Simao said at a briefing in Geneva. “So we don’t know yet.” 

Meanwhile, in Russia, President Vladimir Putin reiterated this week that vaccinations need to increase in order to stop the spread of the virus as the country continues to log record numbers of cases and deaths. "You know that the number of infections is growing in many regions and medical specialists are working in difficult conditions. We all know well that vaccination can save us from the virus and from a severe course of the disease. It is necessary to step up the vaccination pace," Putin said. "I would like to ask you to be most active in this work, to educate people and speak in the media. People trust and listen to your advice and recommendations. It is very important to do this without a tone of administrative reprimand. We should persistently and patiently work with the people and explain to them the benefits of preventing this dangerous disease," Putin added. Russia has recorded over 900 deaths per day for seven days in a row (CNN). As of Friday, 47.8 million Russians have received their first dose and only 42.4 million were fully vaccinated in the country of 146 million people.

Global Economy Falters Due to Supply Chain Hiccups

Supply chain issues and bottlenecks in the global flow of materials and the highly contagious Delta variant combined to hamper the global economic recovery, according to data from Europe and Asia. Third quarter growth slowed, according to that data, as factories have had to continue to halt production. “The best of the reopening rebound probably came earlier this year,” said David Oxley, an economist at Capital Economics in London. “Data Wednesday showed the U.K.—one of the few major economies to publish monthly gross domestic product figures—eked out modest growth in August after revised figures showed it shrank in July. British GDP expanded 0.4% in August,” according to the Wall Street Journal. In Japan, data on Wednesday showed machinery orders fell 2.4% in August. Sweden’s economy contracted by 3.8% in August as exports declined due to freight issues. Europe’s largest economy--Germany--is also slowing sharply as its export businesses deal with supply chain bottlenecks. German industrial production fell by 4% in August.

U.S. Government & Politics

U.S. Military Archbishop Says Catholics Can Refuse Vaccination on Religious Grounds

On Tuesday, Timothy Broglio, archbishop for the U.S. military, said that Catholics can refuse vaccination on religious grounds (Politico). In a statement, he asserted, “no one should be forced to receive a COVID-19 vaccine if it would violate the sanctity of his or her conscience” citing the church’s position on the “sanctity of conscience” while noting the church’s policy is that vaccination is “not sinful.” Broglio has previously expressed support for vaccination efforts. In the statement, he expressed a preference for Moderna and Pfizer vaccines over Johnson & Johnson on moral grounds, saying, “The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was developed, tested, and is produced, with abortion-derived cell lines. That vaccine is, therefore, more problematic.”

Biden Seeks to Address Supply Disruptions in Advance of Christmas 

With the Christmas season rapidly approaching, President Biden is seeking to address supply chain disruptions that are in part a product of the pandemic (Politico). On Wednesday, Biden met virtually with industry leaders and delivered a speech on the issue. In the speech, he touted the Port of Los Angeles’ announcement on Wednesday that it would operate 24/7. Biden stated, “Twenty-four/seven system — what most of the leading countries in the world already operate on now, except us, until now. This is the first key step toward moving our entire freight transportation and logistical supply chain, nationwide, to a 24/7 system.” Many, however, fear that such political efforts may not be able to make a difference. Pasierb, the president and chief executive of the Toy Association, for example, stated, “There’s no political intervention that’s going to get this done, and there may not be a human intervention that gets this done because this issue is now going to last well into next year.” For its part, the administration sees the onus as being largely on private industry and its role as encouraging action with an administration official telling Politico “The supply chain is essentially in the hands of the private sector, so we need the private sector to step up to help solve these problems.”

Social Security Benefits Rise 5.9% in Close to Four Decade Record Increase Amid Inflation

On Wednesday, the Social Security Administration announced that beneficiaries will see a 5.9% increase in their benefits (WaPo). The increase is the largest in almost four decades and comes amid inflation concerns during the pandemic. The Washington Post, writes, “The cost-of-living increase, which will affect roughly 70 million people starting in late December and January, is tied to a measure of inflation that has surged this year as prices rise in a U.S. economy emerging from the pandemic. Experts caution that millions of seniors will in reality see substantially less than a 6 percent bump, because Medicare Part B premiums are deducted from Social Security beneficiaries’ checks and are tied to seniors’ income. The increase in benefits will amount to roughly an additional $92 per month for seniors.” 

Bonus Read: “Covid-19 Vaccine-Mandate Fight Between Texas and Biden Has Companies Caught in the Middle,” (WSJ).

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “Accelerating Inflation Spreads Through the Economy,” (WSJ).

Federal Reserve Signals Asset Purchases May End by Mid-2022

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve released notes from its September 21-22 meeting, which suggested that the Federal Reserve may end its asset purchases by mid-2022 (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Under plans discussed last month, the Fed would taper its $80 billion in monthly Treasury purchases by $10 billion a month, and it would reduce its $40 billion in mortgage-backed securities purchases by $5 billion a month, the minutes said. That schedule for phasing out the Fed’s stimulus program is somewhat faster than investors had anticipated just a few months ago, and it partly reflects how this year’s surge in inflation is proving more persistent than central bank officials and private-sector economists anticipated.” The notes also show that some Fed officials hope that by ending asset purchases, the Federal Reserve will be better prepared to raise interest rates in the event that, as they fear, inflation proves persistent and surpasses the reserve’s 2% target next year.

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “We Mastered Zoom From Home. Just Wait for Hybrid-Office Zoom,” (WSJ).

WSJ Profiles the Doctor Behind NYC’s Vaccine Mandate and the Resultant Kyrie Irving Drama

On Wednesday, the Wall Street Journal published an article profiling Dr. Jay Varma, who was until recently the senior adviser for public health in the New York City mayor’s office, and who played a critical role in the city’s decision to mandate vaccination (WSJ). That mandate produced dramatic results in the world of sports. As the Journal writes, he quickly became “one of the most significant figures in the NBA. That’s because Varma was a driving force on the team of epidemiologists, physicians and health experts that convinced New York City mayor Bill de Blasio to issue an emergency executive order in August requiring people to prove they had at least one vaccine dose before they entered indoor venues like bars, restaurants and gyms—and basketball arenas. What the elected officials and health experts did not anticipate was one athlete in New York refusing to get vaccinated and sparking the most high-stakes vaccination showdown in the world.” That athlete was the Brooklyn Nets’ Kyrie Irving, who the Nets have now told has to get vaccinated to continue with the team. The Journal writes, “Irving’s decision to not get vaccinated risks costing him at least $17 million—he makes $35 million this season and has earned about $160 million in career salary—since this player who hit one of the biggest shots in the history of the league is out until he takes this one. The standoff is a situation without precedent in professional sports.” The Journal writes that Varma basketball played an important role in Varma’s realization that the pandemic’s impact would be serious, reporting, “It was through basketball that Varma realized how wrong he was. Covid was still a distant threat to the great majority of people when Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert made a scene of touching the microphones in front of him at a March 9 press conference, a regrettable gesture of solidarity with the reporters no longer allowed near him. Two days later, Gobert became the first player to test positive for coronavirus, and the NBA season was suspended. ‘Oh, my God,’ Varma recalls thinking as he followed along from another continent. ‘The U.S. is really in for it.’” 

Analysis & Arguments

Ed Zitron writes in defense of continued video conferencing (Atlantic).

Kate Walton writes on the intersection of the pandemic and authoritarianism in Indonesia (Foreign Policy).

Nora De La Cour writes on a nurses strike in Massachusetts (Jacobin).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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