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January 31, 2022 - Brief Issue 282

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

New Study Finds Covid-19 Could Have Seasons (Health & Science)

The Omicron Subvariant Could Slow Down Decline in Cases (Health & Science)

New York Cases Fell by 50% Last Week (Health & Science)

Young Students in the U.S. Still Experiencing High Levels of Anxiety (Health & Science)

Nations Learn to Live with Covid (Around the World)

England Begins Vaccinations for Vulnerable Children (Around the World)

Beijing Seals Off Residential Areas Because of Covid (Around the World)

Chinese Economy Starts Year with Uncertainty (Around the World)

Public Education Faces a Crisis of Epic Proportions (U.S. Government & Politics)

Tenants Find Ways to Remain as New York Eviction Ban Ends (U.S. Government & Politics)

Local Mask Rules Patchwork Causes Confusion (U.S. Government & Politics)

Grocery Delivery Startups Face Losses Amid Competition for Market Share (U.S. Economy)

Restaurants Seek New Ways to Staunch the Great Resignation’s Effects (U.S. Economy)

More Musicians Demand Spotify Remove Their Content in Protest Over Joe Rogan Covid Misinformation (U.S. Society)

Restaurant Chains Limit Value Menus Amid Rising Costs (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 74,333,528 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 884,265 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 538,829,920 vaccine doses, with 75.3% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 63.8% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 86.9% have received at least one dose, and 74.1% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 41.5% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 375,127,800 cases of coronavirus, with 5,665,468 deaths.

New Study Finds Covid-19 Could Have Seasons

As Covid-19 moves from a pandemic to a more endemic disease, a study suggests that it may have seasons for different temperature zones, meaning that colder regions may experience more cases during the winter while warmer regions see spikes in the summer (WaPo). The study, published in the American Journal of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene, found that colder regions, like the U.S. Northeast, could see more cases in the winter, while warmer regions could see more in the summer. Temperate climates could experience two seasonal peaks. “We think covid may be becoming endemic, meaning that it will stay within the human population, but we will see spikes based on where we are in a particular geographic point,” said author Antar Jutla, a hydrologist at the University of Florida. “The severity of peaks will be defined by how colder the temperature is and how warmer the temperature is.” Julta and his research team found that cases in 19 hot spots worldwide increased above and below certain temperature and humidity thresholds because of human behavior and the virus’s transmission as an aerosol. Case numbers spiked when air temperatures dipped below 62 degrees (17 Celsius) or above 75 degrees (24 Celsius). 

The Omicron Subvariant Could Slow Down Decline in Cases

The newest variant, which goes by the name BA.2, is one of three branches of the Omicron viral family and is making headlines, but scientists say it’s unlikely that it will create a disastrous new wave. Instead, it is likely that it will drag out the Omicron surge in much of the world (NYT). BA.2 doesn’t appear to cause more severe disease and vaccines are as effective against it as other forms of Omicron, but it does show signs of spreading (Reuters). “This may mean higher peak infections in places that have yet to peak, and a slowdown in the downward trends in places that have already experienced peak Omicron,” said Thomas Peacock, a virologist at Imperial College London. 

New York Cases Fell by 50% Last Week

New coronavirus cases in New York State dropped by more than 50% over the past week. The state, which was one of the first to be hit hard by the Omicron variant, recorded about 12,300 cases on Friday compared with roughly 27,600 the previous Friday (NYT). Hospitalizations are also falling: 7,675 people were hospitalized with covid on Friday, a decrease of about 500 from the previous day and down from 10,000 the previous Friday. The downward trend is also happening in other Eastern states that were affected by the variant; cases were down more than 70% over the last two weeks in New Jersey and New York state. 

Young Students in the U.S. Still Experiencing High Levels of Anxiety

Many students are still struggling to catch up academically after months, sometimes over a year, of online learning and still face disruptions. This winter, the Omicron variant drove a spike in coronavirus cases and many school districts returned temporarily to remote learning (NYT). The sense of isolation that has affected students since the start of the pandemic has persisted, along with feelings of loneliness and angst. The uncertainty that has permeated every aspect of students’ learning has brought about high levels of anxiety. “It’s like on and off, on and off. It’s just stressful,” Reyes Pineda-Rothstein, an eighth grader at Oak Park, Illinois told the Times. For some students, concerns about safety have made things more difficult, too. 

Bonus Read: “For those with underlying conditions, an Omicron infection can be anything but mild,” (NYT).

Around the World

Nations Learn to Live with Covid

With the Omicron variant spreading so quickly and causing relatively mild forms of illness among vaccinated populations, many countries around the world are tolerating outbreaks. Authorities in North America, Europe, and the Asia-Pacific region are all moving towards treating Covid-19 more like the seasonal flu and working to no longer allow it to disrupt economies, education, and everyday life (WSJ). The fact that vaccines have made the disease less deadly and additional promising treatments, like Covid pills, are in development, combined with the fact that the Omicron variant has resisted measures taken to control earlier surges have informed recent policy decisions. Australia’s Prime Minister Scott Morrison summarized the strategy that many officials are now working towards: “You have two choices here. You can push through, or you can lock down,” he said in January. “We’re for pushing through.”

England Begins Vaccinations for Vulnerable Children

Half a million children in England are eligible for a first dose of a coronavirus shot today, Monday, as the National Health Service extends vaccines to children ages 5 to 11 who are considered most at risk (NYT). Those include children who are clinically vulnerable or who live with someone who has a weakened immune system. The Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine will be given in two, low doses eight weeks apart. England has been slower than other nations to expand its vaccine campaign to children. 

Beijing Seals Off Residential Areas Because of Covid

As China prepares for the Winter Olympic Games, which start on Friday, officials are on high alert for Covid-19 outbreaks. On Sunday, Beijing officials said several residential communities in the city’s northern district were sealed off after two positive cases were identified (Politico). The Anzhenli neighborhood in the Chaoyang district was sealed off on Saturday. Millions of residents were tested this past week in the Fengtai district and some residential compounds were locked down there. China has doubled down on its “zero tolerance” policy ahead of the Olympics but some human rights experts believe that the controls put in place to stop the spread of the virus will remain even after the threat of the virus dissipates. The pandemic has allowed China’s leader Xi Jinping and the government to hone their tracking powers using a combination of technology, armies of neighborhood workers, and sweeping support from the public. Already, Chinese officials are turning the tactics to track other things, like “hostile” political forces, pollution, or crime.  Bonus Read: “Living by the Code: In China, Covid-Era Controls May Outlast the Virus,” (NYT).

Chinese Economy Starts Year with Uncertainty

The Chinese economy started the year with uncertainty as fresh lockdowns disrupted factory activity and consumer spending, according to three manufacturing and service sector surveys released on Sunday (WSJ). The Journal writes: “Two gauges of Chinese manufacturing activity—one official and one private—each retreated in January, while a third measure, of the country’s services sector, brought into relief the deep toll that the latest burst of coronavirus infections has inflicted on domestic demand.” Factory production weakened in January and likely would have been even weaker except it was spurred on by the Lunar New Year holiday that begins Feb. 1. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Public Education Faces a Crisis of Epic Proportions

The Washington Post reports that public education in the United States is facing a “crisis of epic proportions” driven by a combination of political debate over education policy and the pandemic (WaPo). The Post writes, “Test scores are down, and violence is up. Parents are screaming at school boards, and children are crying on the couches of social workers. Anger is rising. Patience is falling. For public schools, the numbers are all going in the wrong direction. Enrollment is down. Absenteeism is up. There aren’t enough teachers, substitutes or bus drivers. Each phase of the pandemic brings new logistics to manage, and Republicans are planning political campaigns this year aimed squarely at failings of public schools.” Private schools are benefiting as public schools become the site of pandemic-related and other political fights. The Post writes, “Schools are on the defensive about their pandemic decision-making, their curriculums, their policies regarding race and racial equity and even the contents of their libraries. Republicans — who see education as a winning political issue — are pressing their case for more ‘parental control,’ or the right to second-guess educators’ choices. Meanwhile, an energized school choice movement has capitalized on the pandemic to promote alternatives to traditional public schools.” Though there have been some improvements since the start of the pandemic, learning has been disrupted by the reliance on remote teaching due to the pandemic. The Post writes, “Some of the best data come from the nationally administered assessment called i-Ready, which tests students three times a year in reading and math, allowing researchers to compare performance of millions of students against what would be expected absent the pandemic. It found significant declines, especially among the youngest students and particularly in math.” Schools are also facing staffing shortages.

Tenants Find Ways to Remain as New York Eviction Ban Ends

The Wall Street Journal reports that two weeks after New York ended its ban on evictions, one of longest lasting state bans, tenants are finding ways to remain in their homes (WSJ). The Journal writes, “the pace of evictions has been slow, as tenant attorneys work to delay cases in court and the governor requested more federal aid for rental assistance. Tens of thousands of tenants are at risk of having to leave their homes because of unpaid rent since New York’s 22-month ban expired two weeks ago. The federal eviction moratorium ended last year.” The Eviction Lab at Princeton University recorded 231 eviction filings in the first week following the ban’s end. As was the case with the end of the federal eviction ban, more local laws are continuing to protect some tenants. In addition, some tenants have initiated court challenges to their evictions that remain to be resolved. Meanwhile, New Yorkers continue to apply for rental assistance. The situation in New York in some ways echoes the situation after the removal of the federal ban, which as we covered in prior briefs, did not see an immediate wave of evictions, although later reporting suggested that the situation may have worsened over time. 

Local Mask Rules Patchwork Causes Confusion

The New York Times reports that the patchwork of local rules regarding masks that spans the country is causing confusion (NYT). The confusion has been exacerbated by ongoing legal challenges and appeals that can make rules vary by the day. The Times writes, “Take Douglas County, Neb., home to the state’s largest city, Omaha. When county officials issued a temporary indoor mask mandate for the city, to take effect on Jan. 12, the state attorney general sent a letter to the county’s health director the same day telling her that he would sue to block the mandate from being enforced. His request for an injunction was denied by a district court judge on Tuesday, so the mandate stays in place for now, but state officials are continuing to challenge it in court.” As we covered last week, similar dynamics have occurred in New York, where the state’s mask mandate was ruled unconstitutional and then temporarily allowed to continue on appeal. In Virginia, rules vary by school district while legal wrangling continues over the Republican governor’s effort to prohibit mandates in schools. The Times writes, “More than half of the state’s school districts are still requiring masks for all students inside schools, according to a Washington Post analysis, and seven, including the state’s largest, are suing him over the issue. The state’s Supreme Court could issue a ruling in the case within days.”

Bonus Read: “Here's what 5 governors have to say on Covid, climate change and campaign plans,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “For Chip Industry, Global Supply Crunch Pushes Next Target to $1 Trillion,” (WSJ).

Grocery Delivery Startups Face Losses Amid Competition for Market Share

The pandemic increased demand for grocery delivery services, but the Wall Street Journal reports that losses are mounting for the start up companies that have sought to enter the market, as they compete to gain market share (WSJ). The Journal reports that average losses for some companies can reach $20 per order. The Journal explains, “Prices are similar to grocery stores, discounts are plentiful, and many services don’t have a fee or minimum order, allowing consumers to request a single pint of Ben & Jerry’s delivered to their doorstep. Food-delivery app DoorDash Inc., based in San Francisco, also recently entered the fray in New York City. While these consumer-friendly offerings have brought surging sales, losses are heavy given the high cost of prolific advertising and paying couriers to hand-deliver potato chips, soap and eggs in a short time frame, industry investors and executives said.”

Restaurants Seek New Ways to Staunch the Great Resignation’s Effects

Like many Americans amid the pandemic, Restaurant workers are quitting their jobs in large numbers, but the Washington Post reports that restaurants are adopting a range of new strategies in an effort to keep their workforce (WaPo). The Post writes that while restaurant perks previously tended to be in the vein of free food but “No retirement benefits, health plans or team-building retreats. The Great Resignation is upgrading restaurant industry benefits and perks.” The Post adds, “Restaurant owners are offering shorter workweeks, life insurance, mental health services, college tuition and more paths to career advancement. They are giving out free Spotify subscriptions, adding nursing stations for lactating employees, and promising signing bonuses and free food to anyone off the street who fills out an application.” Sandy Cheek, a server and trainer at a Florida restaurant, told the Post, “Perks like that make us feel like they appreciate us, that they are giving back to us.” She explained how new health and life insurance along with higher pay kept her at her job even as other restaurants sought to recruit her. The Post notes that restaurants have been particularly hard hit by the great resignation, noting, “In 2021, restaurant jobs advertised on ZipRecruiter only received about 18 applicants on average, down from 61 back in 2019, said ZipRecruiter chief economist Julia Pollak. Now, restaurant manager and cook job ads get around 40 percent fewer applications than the industry-wide average, she said. With restaurant employers competing for far fewer applicants, new enticements have become common, she added.”

U.S. Society

More Musicians Demand Spotify Remove Their Content in Protest Over Joe Rogan Covid Misinformation

A growing number of musicians are joining Neil Young in demanding that the music streaming service Spotify remove their music as a way of protesting prominent podcaster Joe Rogan’s spreading of misinformation regarding Covid (WaPo). The Post writes, “a handful of musicians this weekend [joined] Neil Young in saying they want their music off the streaming platform as it continues to host provocative podcaster Joe Rogan.” They include Nils Lofgren, a rock musician known for playing with Bruce Springsteen. Lofgren issued a statement to that effect on Saturday. The Post writes, “Singer-songwriter Joni Mitchell also said she plans to remove her music from Spotify in solidarity with Young ‘and the global scientific and medical communities.’”

Restaurant Chains Limit Value Menus Amid Rising Costs

The Wall Street Journal reports that restaurant chains are limiting their value menu offerings amid rising costs and inflation (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Burger King, Denny’s Corp. and Domino’s Pizza Inc. are among the chains that are reducing their menu of discounted items or shrinking portions to try to improve their margins, executives said. Some chain executives hope the trimming of discount menus and meal deals might bring less pushback from consumers than straight price increases.” McDonalds allowed franchises to raise drink prices, ditching years of nationally advertised $1 drinks. The moves come amid rising inflation and supply disruptions. The Journal writes, “U.S. consumer prices are climbing, with a 7% annual increase in December representing the biggest gain since 1982, the Labor Department said. Supply-chain challenges, strong demand and consumer stimulus payments are all contributing to rising prices, economists say.”

Bonus Read: “America’s split-screen pandemic: Many families resume their lives even as hospitals are overwhelmed,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Lyz Lenz writes on why the pandemic feels harder now (WaPo).

Ross Douthat examines whether debates over masks will divide blue states (NYT).

Rich Lowry predicts that debates over masks presage a defeat for the left (National Review).

Steve Viscelli discusses trucking and the current supply crisis on Dissent’s Belabored podcast (Dissent).

Alex N. Press critiques a recent New York Times article on the Great Resignation (Jacobin).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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