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July 27, 2022 - Brief Issue 354
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
The brief will be on hiatus beginning July 29.
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Top Headlines
Few Parents Say They Plan to Vaccinate Their Very Young Children (Health & Science)
New Studies Point to Wuhan’s Market as Origin Point of Virus (Health & Science)
IMF Warns of Global Recession (Around the World)
Wuhan Shuts Down Business, Transport Due to Four New Covid Cases (Around the World)
North Korea Holds Mask-Free Public Event (Around the World)
Biden Poised to Notch Series of Congressional Wins (U.S. Government & Politics)
GM Profit Tumbles 40% Amid Supply Issues (U.S. Economy)
Shopify to Lay Off 10% of its Workers as Pandemic Demand Fails to Live Up to Hype (U.S. Economy)
Airfare Prices Drop (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 90,735,812 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,027,912 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 601,497,801 vaccine doses, with 78.7% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 67.2% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.9% have received at least one dose, and 77% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 48.2% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 29.7% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 572,635,131 cases of coronavirus, with 6,389,541 deaths.
Few Parents Say They Plan to Vaccinate Their Very Young Children
On Tuesday, the Kaiser Family Foundation released a survey that found that few parents intend to vaccinate their very young children (NYT). The New York Times writes, “A majority of parents polled said they considered the vaccine a greater risk to their children than the coronavirus itself,” adding, “The new survey found that 43 percent of parents with children under 5 said they would ‘definitely not’ have them vaccinated. About 27 percent said they would ‘wait and see,’ while another 13 percent said they would have their children vaccinated only if required.’ Even some parents who were themselves vaccinated against Covid said they would not give permission for their youngest children.” The results come as vaccine pickup has been slow among the age group. The Times reports, “For children in the age group, 6 months through 4 years, parental apprehension has so far resulted in the administration of scarcely a trickle of Covid shots. Since June 18, when they became eligible, just 2.8 percent of those children had received shots, the foundation found recently in a separate analysis of federal vaccine data. By comparison, 18.5 percent of children ages 5 through 11, who have been eligible for Covid shots since October, had been vaccinated at a similar point in the rollout of their shots.” The Times adds that uptake has slowed even among older children as well.
New Studies Point to Wuhan’s Market as Origin Point of Virus
Two new studies have provided evidence that the coronavirus pandemic originated in Wuhan, China at the market where live animals were sold, further refuting the theory that the virus emerged from a Chinese lab. In research published online Tuesday by the journal Science, researchers incorporated data collected by Chinese scientists then used mapping tools to estimate the locations of the earliest reported Covid-19 cases. “All this evidence tells us the same thing: It points right to this particular market in the middle of Wuhan,” said Kristian Andersen, a professor in the Department of Immunology and Microbiology at Scripps Research and coauthor of one of the studies. “I was quite convinced of the lab leak myself until we dove into this very carefully and looked at it much closer” (AP).
In the other study, scientists looked at the genomic diversity of the virus both inside and outside of China, starting with early samples from Dec. 2019 through mid-February 2020. Researchers found two lineages–A and B–that marked the pandemic’s start in Wuhan. Study co-author Joel Werthaim, a viral evolution expert at the University of California, San Diego, explained that lineage A is more genetically similar to bat coronaviruses, but lineage B appears to have begun spreading earlier in humans, particularly at the market. The conditions at the market and people and wild animals in such close proximity lowered barriers to spillover.
Around the World
IMF Warns of Global Recession
The International Monetary Fund downgraded its growth forecasts as it projected higher inflation around the world as the economies of the U.S., China, and Europe slow down. On Tuesday, the IMF updated the World Economic Outlook, saying the prospects have darkened due to the war in Ukraine and a resurgent pandemic affecting every continent (NYT). “The world may soon be teetering on the edge of a global recession, only two years after the last one,” Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, the IMF’s chief economist, wrote in a blog post accompanying the report, adding the outlook is looking “increasingly gloomy.” Global growth forecasts have been downgraded from the IMF’s April projections, predicting output will fall 3.2% in 2022, from 6.1% last year.
Wuhan Shuts Down Business, Transport Due to Four New Covid Cases
China has temporarily closed some businesses and public transport in Wuhan’s district of Jiangxia, which is home to over 900,000 residents, due to two new cases detected during regular testing and another two new cases in close contact with those people. Officials have imposed a three-day restriction on large group events, dining at restaurants, public entertainment, markets, and small clinics, and have suspended bus and subway services (Reuters).
North Korea Holds Mask-Free Public Event
For the first time since declaring a Covid-19 emergency in May, North Korea held a large public event without masks. The event, honoring veterans of the 1950-53 Korean war, was held just days after the government announced its coronavirus crisis was almost over. Photos released by state media showed thousands of people celebrating without masks. On Wednesday, official news agency KCNA reported 18 new fever cases for Monday, the third day in a row where the tally was under 100; it topped 390,000 in May (Reuters).
U.S. Government & Politics
Bonus Read: “Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis Jockey for Position Ahead of Potential 2024 Showdown,” (WSJ).
Biden Poised to Notch Series of Congressional Wins
The Washington Post reports that after a series of stalled legislative proposals and policies, including on the pandemic, the Biden administration is poised to notch a series of Congressional wins (WaPo). The Post writes, “Most politically resonant is a bill to let Medicare negotiate drug prices, a hugely popular idea that Democrats have been pursuing for more than 20 years. Even before that — possibly within days — Congress is likely to pass a bill providing $52 billion to the U.S. semiconductor industry, intended to bolster the U.S. economy and cut China’s influence. ‘We’re close, so let’s get it done,’ Biden said of the bill on Monday. ‘So much depends on it.’” Democrats are poised to also pass a bill to support the semiconductor industry wracked by supply chain issues and a bill to codify gay marriage. The Post notes that the bills come as the Democrats see renewed hope in some Congressional races despite general pessimism about the likely impact of inflation on their midterm chances. However, it also notes that recent Covid cases in Congress have created new difficulties when it comes to passing bills.
U.S. Economy
GM Profit Tumbles 40% Amid Supply Issues
On Tuesday, General Motors announced that its profits fell 40% in the second quarter citing losses in China and supply chain issues (WSJ, NYT). The Wall Street Journal notes, “GM said early this month that a shortage of computer chips and other parts prevented the company from shipping 95,000 vehicles to dealers. Company executives said Tuesday that they still expect to clear the backlog during the second half of the year as more parts become available and it is able to complete assembly of the partially finished vehicles.” The New York Times writes, “In addition, G.M. suffered a sharp slowdown in China, where Covid-19 lockdowns have forced many automakers to reduce or shut down production for weeks or months. The company’s deliveries in China fell about 35 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, and G.M. reported a $87 million loss in its joint ventures there.”
Shopify to Lay Off 10% of its Workers as Pandemic Demand Fails to Live Up to Hype
On Tuesday, the E-Commerce company Shopify announced that it will lay off 1,000 employees, about 10% of its global workforce (WSJ). CEO and founder Tobi Lütke cited a mismatch between the company’s bet on pandemic demand and the actual course of demand as explanation. Writing of that bet in a memo to staff, he stated, “It’s now clear that bet didn’t pay off,” adding, “Ultimately, placing this bet was my call to make and I got this wrong.” Shopify’s stock slid amid the news. The Wall Street Journal reports, “Shopify’s shares fell 15% to about $31 in Tuesday morning trading after The Wall Street Journal first reported on the layoffs. The shares have fallen more than 80% since they peaked in November near $175 adjusting for a recent stock split. The company reports quarterly results on Wednesday.”
U.S. Society
Airfare Prices Drop
The price of airfare has dropped from its Summer highs driven in part by the pandemic’s effect on staffing and pent up vacation demand (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “The average airfare for round-trip domestic flights this fall is $298, according to data from travel booking app Hopper. That’s down from May, when average fares exceeded $400. Overall, domestic flights are roughly 26% cheaper this fall compared with the peak cost for summer airfare. Normally, prices for plane tickets drop between 10% and 15% as children go back to school, says Hayley Berg, lead economist at Hopper.” Even so, the price is still 19% above its price at the same period pre-pandemic in 2019.
Bonus Read: “Melting Profits Threaten the Ice Cream Man,” (NYT).
Analysis & Arguments
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