Dear friend,

Welcome to Frontier, the monthly newsletter from the Future of Land and Housing Program at New America. 

🔊 Please join us 2/21 for a virtual event titled "How to Rebuild Ukraine—And Make Russia Pay for It," featuring Senator Ratna Omidvar of Canada and former U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes David J. Scheffer as speakers. Sign up here! 

🔊 ICYMI: On 1/19, we hosted a discussion in partnership with USAID on "standing with environmental defenders under threat." The recording of the event, along with additional resources, is available here.

Here's what we've been up to:

What We're Doing

New Report: Housing and Climate Change in the U.S.

Climate change poses an unprecedented risk to housing security across the United States. Sea-level rise and more dangerous hurricanes continue to threaten the coasts, while inland communities are experiencing flooding and fires, and are also likely to see an influx of climate migrants. And real estate markets throughout the country will feel the impacts of climate change on U.S. housing finance—on the federal budget, on mortgage and insurance markets, and on housing affordability.

By one estimate, 50 million Americans could move by 2050 due to climate change. Where will these migrants go? Will they be able to afford safe and adequate housing in their new communities? What will happen to those who stay behind?

Yesterday, Tim Robustelli and Yuliya Panfil released Housing and Climate Change in the United States, a report analyzing the climate impacts on housing for three distinct groups: those displaced by climate disasters; those who remain in at-risk areas; and the communities that receive an influx of climate migrants.

You can access the report here.

How to Rebuild Ukraine—And Make Russia Pay for It, with Senator Ratna Omidvar and Ambassador David Scheffer 

February 24th marks one year since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Estimated costs for rebuilding Ukraine exceed $500 billion, although innovative tools, funding mechanisms, and reconstruction methods can help Ukrainians rebuild more efficiently, transparently, and equitably. Further, there is increased political movement in the West to use seized Russians assets to help pay for this recovery.

Join us on February 21 for a discussion on how to rebuild Ukraine, followed by a fireside chat between Senator Ratna Omidvar of Canada and former U.S. Ambassador-at-Large for War Crimes David J. Scheffer on how to pay for Ukraine's reconstruction. RSVP here!

Last Year Was Terrible for U.S. Housing Security

By almost every measure, 2022 was very bad for housing security in the United States. Skyrocketing interest rates meant the cost of owning a home soared; the typical mortgage nearly doubled in the last year. Tenants fared worse, as rents continued to rise sharply and the average rent exceeded $2,000 for the first time.

The result is that more people are losing their homes. Eviction filings reached or surpassed pre-pandemic levels in many areas, and foreclosure filings have increased 167 percent from 2021. Those who do keep their homes often pay dearly for it: to make ends meet, American households are accumulating trillions more in debt.

Program fellow Dona Stewart highlighted the sad state of U.S. housing security in a recent post for the FLH Blog, and proposed a few policy solutions that can help Americans hang on to their homes.

Read the piece here.

What We're Reading

FLH staff share what has stood out to them lately on land, housing, and property rights in the U.S. and internationally.

Yuliya Panfil

Indigenous land stewardship key to preserving Amazon carbon sinks: This article spotlights research by the World Resources Institute, showing that between 2001 and 2021, carbon emissions across Amazonia varied drastically based on land ownership type. Their report found that areas stewarded by Indigenous peoples and local communities stored 340 million metric tons of carbon annually (equivalent to the annual carbon footprint of the entire United Kingdom). Conversely, Amazonian land managed by governments and private owners has become a net source of greenhouse gas emissions, releasing 270 million tons into the atmosphere each year, largely due to forest loss. The report authors believe that the reason for this discrepancy is that Indigenous peoples and local communities are far better at protecting land from deforestation and degradation. These findings build on a growing body of research showing that strengthening Indigenous land rights is vital for mitigating climate change. Yet in Brazil and elsewhere, securing Indigenous land tenure remains an obstacle to practicing this sort of good stewardship.

Sabiha Zainulbhai

Detroit’s long history of evicting Black people for profit: This Detroit Metro Times article details how the city’s failure to implement an ordinance guaranteeing lower-income renters facing eviction a right to a lawyer follows a long history of government-sanctioned exploitation of the city’s Black renters. Not only are represented tenants  nearly 18 times more likely to avoid displacement than unrepresented tenants, but the ordinance would pay for itself and more by offsetting the cost of carrying out evictions and funding the services that support people after the fact. And yet, the ordinance, which was set to begin in October 2022, has yet to materialize, meaning that renter households—the majority of whom are Black—are continuing to face eviction without the representation of a lawyer, despite what should be their government-assured right to one.

Tim Robustelli

In Maine, a Rare Influx of New Residents, and a Housing Crunch: Leaders in rural communities across Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine have long worried about an aging population and demographic decline. Since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, however, these northern New England states have experienced a notable uptick in new residents. In fact, across the U.S., moves out of metropolitan areas more than tripled between 2020 and 2021, as Americans took advantage of remote work, fled crowded cities due to health concerns, or more so prioritized quality-of-life. In Maine, the New York Times reports, some have welcomed the newcomers, hoping they’ll boost local economies. Yet others are barely surviving as the state’s housing market goes wild. In coastal Waldo County, for example, home prices jumped 60 percent between 2019 and 2022, and the housing supply has drastically shrunk. Many service sector workers, especially, are struggling to find adequate and affordable housing. A stark reminder that population growth and economic development must be accompanied by more housing.

Thoughts on our work or where we're headed? Reach out to us at FLH@NewAmerica.org or tag us at @FLHatNewAmerica.

Until next month, the FLH Team.

About New America

New America is dedicated to renewing the promise of America, bringing us closer to our nation’s highest ideals. We’re a different kind of think tank: one dedicated to public problem solving. Our team of visionary researchers, changemakers, technologists, and storytellers study and seize the opportunities presented by dramatic social and technological change. We search for powerful ideas, wherever they are, and collaborate with civic innovators around the world to develop evidence-based solutions.

The Future of Land and Housing Program at New America aims to help solve today’s land and housing rights challenges, both in the United States and internationally. Through our research and writing, convening, and collaboration with civic innovators worldwide, we strive to connect new constituencies, shed light on underreported issues, and implement creative approaches in the property rights space.

You are receiving this email because you signed up to receive newsletters from New America. Click to update your subscription preferences or unsubscribe from all New America newsletters.