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March 24, 2022 - Brief Issue 306

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Moderna to ask FDA to Authorize Vaccine for Kids Under 6 (Health & Science)

BA.2 Dominant Around the World (Health & Science)

Deaths from Heart Disease and Stroke Rose During Pandemic in U.S. (Health & Science)

South Africa to Lift Pandemic Restrictions (Around the World)

Restrictions Ease Across Asia; New Zealand Loosens Restrictions (Around the World)

New Wave in England Puts NHS Under Pressure, School Absences Triple (Around the World)

Biden Administration Considers Recommending Fourth Shot for Elderly (U.S. Government & Politics)

Top New York State Judge Faces Removal for Violating Vaccine Mandate (U.S. Government & Politics)

New York Amazon Warehouses to Hold Union Vote (U.S. Economy)

Student Test Scores on the Rise After Pandemic-Era Educational Losses (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 79,844,497 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 974,830 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 558,918,245 vaccine doses, with 76.8% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 65.4% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 88.2% have received at least one dose, and 75.3% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 44.6% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 475,917,843 cases of coronavirus, with 6,105,530 deaths.

Moderna to ask FDA to Authorize Vaccine for Kids Under 6

Pharmaceutical company Moderna will submit a request to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration “in the coming weeks” for authorization of a two-dose, 25 microgram-each shot to be used in children ages six months to six years of age. "Given the need for a vaccine against COVID-19 in infants and young children, we are working with the U.S. FDA and regulators globally to submit these data as soon as possible," Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel said in the statement. The company will seek approval in Europe and other countries as well (WSJ).  

In trials, the doses, which are just a quarter of an adult dose, were given 28 days apart to 2,500 children from ages six months to two years and to 4,200 children ages two to six years. Even though efficacy was 43.7% and 37.5% in the two groups, respectively, no severe cases of Covid-19 were reported (NPR). The data has not been published or peer reviewed and regulators will review it carefully before making any decisions (WaPo).

BA.2 Dominant Around the World

The newest version of the coronavirus to sweep across the world, Omicron’s subvariant known as BA.2, is now the dominant form of the virus in most countries, according to the GISAID international repository of coronavirus genetic sequences (WaPo). Scientists and health experts are still trying to determine the impact of the BA.2 subvariant, but an uptick in cases across Europe has been attributed to the subvariant and many believe that the U.S. will see a similar increase soon. It’s unclear if BA.2 causes more severe disease, but experts believe that vaccines provide protection against severe disease and some say that prior infection from Omicron provides some immunity as well. 

Deaths from Heart Disease and Stroke Rose During Pandemic in U.S.

Mortality rates from heart disease and stroke rose 4.3% and 6.4% respectively in 2020, the first year of the pandemic, according to a study published Wednesday by the JAMA Network Open. The U.S. mortality rate overall jumped 15.9% that year. The increase was greatest among Black people and “increases in deaths attributed to risk rose at least five times as much percentage-wise for non-Hispanic Black people as for non-Hispanic white people,” according to the Wall Street Journal. For stroke, risk-related increases in deaths rose twice as much among Black people compared with white people. The increase in deaths due to risk was greater for Hispanic and Asian populations, too. “The pandemic melted the tip of the iceberg to reveal how precarious our healthcare system is for many populations,” said Jamal Rana, chief of cardiology at Kaiser Permanente Medical Center in Oakland, CA, and senior author of the study. 

Bonus Read: “Information From Same-Race/Ethnicity Experts Online Does Not Increase Vaccine Interest or Intention to Vaccinate,” (Milbank Quarterly).

Around the World

South Africa to Lift Pandemic Restrictions

President Cyril Ramaphosa said on Tuesday that South Africa will begin lifting its Covid-19 restrictions and start what he called a “new era” in the fight against the virus. Masks will no longer be required outdoors but will still need to be used in public indoor spaces and public transportation. The New York Times summarizes the other changes: “Indoor and outdoor venues that require proof of vaccination or a negative test no more than 72 hours old will be allowed to fill up to 50 percent of their capacity. Venues without such requirements must continue to adhere to the existing limits of 1,000 people indoors and 2,000 people outdoors. The maximum capacity at funerals will double, to 200 attendees from 100.” South Africa first identified the Omicron variant in late November and it quickly became dominant, but the country declared the wave had peaked in early January. Bonus Read: “Trying to Solve a Covid Mystery: Africa’s Low Death Rates,” (NYT).

Restrictions Ease Across Asia; New Zealand Loosens Restrictions

Many Asian-Pacific nations are relaxing pandemic-related restrictions even as the Omicron variant continues to spread in the region (NYT). In the Philippines, thousands of people are attending political rallies in Manila and in India, millions of people celebrated Holi, a Hindu festival. Thailand has been gradually relaxing entry requirements for tourists and in Indonesia, Bali has led the rest of the country in reopening to tourists. In South Korea, 15,000 fans attended a K-pop band concert in Seoul over the weekend, even as the South Korean government asked crematories to increase their burning capacity and funeral homes to acquire more refrigerators for bodies (NYT). 

New Zealand announced on Wednesday that it would eliminate vaccine passes and limits on social gatherings in addition to ending vaccine mandates for some government workers (NYT). Starting April 4, vaccine passes will no longer be required to enter public facilities and vaccine mandates will be dropped for education, health, police, and defense workers, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern said. “With one of the most highly vaccinated populations in the world, we are able to keep moving forward safely,” Ardern said, adding, “This is not the end, but in some ways, it is a new beginning.”

New Wave in England Puts NHS Under Pressure, School Absences Triple 

England’s National Health Services (NHS) is under “significant” pressure as Covid-19 cases continue to rise in every part of the country, Prof. Chris Whitty, the chief medical officer in England, said. Speaking at the annual conference of the Local Government Association and the Association of Directors of Public Health, Whitty raised concerns about the continued increase in cases, saying: “Covid cases are now rising quite rapidly – from quite a high base – and this is driven by a number of different factors, of which BA.2, the new Omicron variant is a large part. Rates are high and rising in virtually all parts of England.” He added that the NHS was seeing increasing numbers of patients requiring hospitalization and if numbers continued at the current pace for the next two weeks, the NHS would be under pressure. In at least two regions of England, hospitalizations are at their highest point in more than a year (Guardian). 

On Monday, the health secretary, Sajid Javid, said that the jump in cases and hospitalizations was “no particular cause for concern. But data published on Tuesday from the Department of Education showed that 202,000 pupils were off school on March 17 due to coronavirus infections, a number that was triple that of just two weeks previous. School officials and public health experts worry that the disruptions will hurt students as they prepare for their exams. 

Bonus Read: “Ukraine War’s Spillover Swamps Poor Countries Still Reeling From Covid-19,” (WSJ).

U.S. Government & Politics

Biden Administration Considers Recommending Fourth Shot for Elderly

Politico reports that the Biden administration is considering recommending fourth shots of vaccine for elderly Americans within weeks, citing “four people with knowledge of the matter” (Politico). Politico writes, “The move under consideration by senior health officials would recommend the additional vaccine dose for adults 65 and older, in an effort to better protect high-risk people and stave off a wave of hospitalizations should infections climb rapidly as a result of the spread of the Omicron subvariant, BA.2. Currently, second boosters are only recommended for those with compromised immune systems.” The consideration comes as the FDA prepares to consider the question of fourth shots at an April 6 meeting, and Politico writes some officials are wary about preempting that meeting’s findings. As we covered in yesterday’s brief, White House officials have also recently warned that they lack the funds to provide fourth shots to every American, although White House officials did say they had funds to provide them to Americans over the age of 65.

Top New York State Judge Faces Removal for Violating Vaccine Mandate

The New York Times reports that Jenny Rivera, an associate justice on New York State’s highest court, the Court of Appeals, is facing the possibility of removal for failing to comply with New York’s vaccine mandate (NYT). The Times writes, “She is now one of four state judges who face referral to the state’s Commission on Judicial Conduct, according to a person familiar with the process who spoke on background to discuss a personnel matter. The commission could move to admonish Judge Rivera, or remove her from the bench.” Rivera was appointed to a 14-year term by former governor Andrew Cuomo. The Times notes, “Since September, court employees have had the chance to either get vaccinated or apply for a religious or medical exemption. Monday marked the end of the review process for those applications.” Beginning in October, the Court of Appeals’ six other members met in person to hear cases while Rivera joined by video conference.

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “The Pandemic Wrecked Millions of Careers. These 6 People Built New Ones,” (NYT).

New York Amazon Warehouses to Hold Union Vote

Workers at two separate Amazon warehouses in New York will hold votes on whether to unionize over the next month (WSJ). The workers are proceeding without the support of a major union, which the Wall Street Journal writes is “an uncommon tactic, but one that organizers believe will win support from workers,” adding, “Labor experts say the grass-roots effort could pose challenges for union supporters, as potential costs could escalate for appeals or in procedural questions.” If successful, the votes would be the first case of an Amazon warehouse unionizing after an earlier effort in Alabama failed to gain majority support, although the National Labor Relations Board ordered a re-vote in that case. The Journal reports regarding the New York effort, “The vote at a warehouse named JFK8, which employs about 7,500 people, will take place from March 25 to 30. Workers at a different Staten Island facility named LDJ5, which employs about 1,500 workers, will vote the week of April 25, with ballots being counted soon afterward.” The Journal notes that the New York warehouses were at the center of early protests against Amazon working conditions during the pandemic, writing, “Early in the health crisis, employees at JFK8 were among groups of Amazon workers throughout the nation to hold facility walkouts to protest working conditions. Many employees said at the time that Amazon didn’t take enough precautions to protect workers while it prioritized meeting customer demand for an uptick in orders.” Chris Smalls, a former employee who is leading the effort and who made news when he was fired by Amazon during the early protests and alleged his firing was in retaliation for his organizing, stated, “We hope to be like the Starbucks movement and branch out across the nation,” a reference to another pandemic-era unionization push. For its part Amazon contended that Smalls was fired for violating Covid protocols.

U.S. Society

Student Test Scores on the Rise After Pandemic-Era Educational Losses

As students return to in-person learning, test scores and learning paces are rising. These findings come from a national study that also reports that students who have only experienced education during the pandemic have struggled compared to their older counterparts. The Wall Street Journal warns that this is not a sign of full recovery, despite progress: “Overall, students are performing worse so far in the 2021-22 school year compared with the prior year, in both reading and math. Fall-to-winter growth, however, improved this school year, and the gulf in scores from last year to this year shrank by winter.” Whereas at the beginning of the pandemic, students fought to keep up in their math classes, reading is now the area hit hardest by the pandemic.

Analysis & Arguments

Benjamin Mazer warns of a coming wave of false negative Covid test results (Atlantic).

Betsy Ladyzhets writes on the troubles with the data needed to track the pandemic (538).

Joseph Fuller and William Kerr argue that the great resignation started before the pandemic (HBR).

 Rudy Malcom writes on Jewish life as the pandemic enters its third year (Forward).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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