Grasp the pattern, read the trend
No. 47, November/2021, 4
Brought to you by CPG
Dear Readers,
The AiR team is presenting you this week’s AiR issue.
Wishing you an informative read, we extend special greetings to everyone celebrating Albania’s, Lebanon’s, Mauritania’s, Panama’s, and Suriname’s Independence Day this week.
With best regards,
Henning Glaser
Editor in Chief
Webpage: www.cpg-online.de, Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/CPGTU
Main Sections
Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia
Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia
Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
Announcements
Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in East Asia
China: New party chief of Ministry of Public Security appointed
(tjsj) Wang Xiaohong, currently deputy minister of public security and member of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, has been appointed as the new party chief of China’s Ministry of Public Security and will replace Zhao Kezhi.
Wang’s career, which started in the province Fujian where Chinese President Xi Jinping spent 17 years from 1985 to 2002, took off under Xi when in 2013 became head of the police force in Henan province and deputy governor there the following year. In 2015, he became Beijing’s deputy mayor and police chief, before assuming the post of deputy minister for public security in 2016 and deputy party chief of the ministry in 2018.
The promotion of Xiaohong has been perceived as a key appointment ahead of the CCP’s congress next week, expected to ensure another five-year term for Chinese President Xi Jinping. [South China Morning Post]
China accused of using jailed COVID-19 reporter as political ‘example’
(tjsj) A former lawyer of Zhang Zhan, a Chinese journalist jailed in early 2020 for reporting on COVID-19 in Wuhan, has accused Chinese authorities of using Zhang as an example to prevent political dissent. The accusation comes amid growing concerns over Zhan’s safety due to a protracted hunger strike. [The Guardian 1]
Zhang was sentenced in December 2021, charged with disseminating false information, and “picking quarrels and provoking trouble”, a charge often used to quash political dissidents. She is one of our Chinese journalists who were detained after reporting from Wuhan.
The UN has since commented on the situation, who called for Zhan’s release or at least “to make urgent life-saving medical care available”, to which the Chinese mission in Geneva labelled as “irresponsible’” and “erroneous”, citing that the call was “based on hearsay”. [Al Jazeera] [The Guardian 2]
China: Travel blogger jailed for ‘disrespectful poses’ at soldiers’ cemetary
(tjsj) Travel blogger Li Qixian has been sentenced to jail for seven months over ‘disrespectful’ photos at a soldiers’ cemetery in Xinjiang and for “infringing on the reputation of heroes and martyrs.”
Prompting an online outcry, Li had posted pictures of himself smiling and pointing his fingers in a pistol-like gesture at the tomb one of the four Chinese soldiers killed at Galwan Valley during a clash between Chinese and Indian troops in June 2020. [South China Morning Post]
In June, China introduced a law banning the defamation of military personnel. [Radio Free Asia]
China: News group warned of internet information violations
(tjsj) On Tuesday, the Cyberspace Administration of China (‘CAC’) warned that news organizations could be removed from China’s ‘white list’ of approved internet news providers, suspending their qualifications, should they be found to violation “information security”, including “security ‘accidents’”.
This comes the CAC releasing a ‘white list’ last month, citing 1,358 new outlets whose content can be disseminated publicly. However, notable Chinese news outlets, including Caixin, The Economic Observer, Caijing magazine and the 21st Century Business Herald were not included.
Forming part of a broader narrative, within recent years, the CAC has enacted restrictions on the dissemination of news articles online whilst attempting to prevent private organisations influencing domestic public discourse. [South China Morning Post]
China: Hong Kong authorities steps up efforts in quashing dissent ahead of Legislative Council polls
(tjsj) Hong Kong’s anti-corruption watchdog, the Independent Commission Against Corruption, has stated it will monitor social media for ‘incitement’ and illegal content that seeks to undermine the ‘patriots only’ election, whilst deploying 800 officers to ensure electoral integrity during this year’s Legislative Council polling day.
In March this year, Beijing passed a decision to ensure that only pro-Beijing, ‘patriots’ were in charge of governing Hong Kong. [Hong Kong Free Press 1]
Similarly, between May and September this year, 7 Hong Kong activists, 4 of whom are minors, including a 15 year-old, have been charged with national security charges pertaining to conspiring to incite subversion.
The accused were members of the pro-democracy group, Returning Valiant. 15 of Returning Valiant were arrested between May and September this year regarding their alleged possession of explosives and materials with pro-Hong Kong independence slogans. Sentencing has been adjourned to January 2022. None of the accused applied for bail. [Hong Kong Free Press 2]
China: Hong Kong films showings banned
(tjsj) Two Hong Kong films screenings in the fourth Ground Up Student Film Festival have been banned under the Beijing-imposed national security law pertaining to censorship, after the films failed to obtain a certificate of approval from Hong Kong’s Office for Film, Newspaper and Article Administration.
Last month, the Legislative Council passed amendments to the Film Censorship Ordinance, granting the government the power to prohibit films that are considered contrary to national security. [See, AiR No. 44, November/2021, 1] [Hong Kong Free Press]
China: Evergrande attempts to recoup losses as financial crisis continues
(tjsj) Evergrande has sold its stake in streaming platform, HengTen, at a discount, in an attempt to avoid defaulting. In response, on Thursday, S&P noted in a report that default was still “highly likely”, noting that “the firm has lost the capacity to sell new homes, which means its main business model is effectively defunct”.
China’s second largest property developer has been struggling to meet due payments over the last series of months, grappling with more than $300 billion in debt. The next debt deadline is scheduled for December 6 in the amount of $82.5 million after missing a payment deadline on November 6, triggering a 30-day grace period. If Evergrande is unable to meet this upcoming deadline, it would engender formal default. Similarly, on November 28, the developer has an additional payment deadline in the amount of $255 million. [Reuters 1]
Accordingly, China’s property sector has seen a sharp decrease, house prices at the
lowest price in 6 years, whilst land sales have hit lows for a fourth consecutive month. [Reuters 2] [Reuters 3]
As a result, China’s economy has been reported to have slowed to rates seen back in 1990 attributed to both Beijing’s hardened stance against the property sector, and zero tolerance to COVID-19.
With Beijing’s decision to reduce in mortgage lending that is largely attributed to the financial crisis suffered by property developer Evergrande, Beijing’s tightening regulations of the property sector to reducing China’s dependence of property sector has engendered Goldman Sachs, Nomura Holdings and Barclays to cut their growth forecasts for China in 2022 to below 5 percent. [South China Morning Post] [Sydney Morning Herald]Yet
incongruously, on Thursday, China’s Ministry of Commerce has announced that foreign direct investment is expected to reach “double-digit growth” in 2021, suggesting that this growth would support the notion of China’s recovering economy. [Xinhua]
China: Anti-monopoly regulations impacting business revenue
(tjsj) Amidst Beijing launching anti-monopolistic measures and investigation into unfair competition, tech giants have recorded mixed results during the July-September period this year. For example, Alibaba was reported to have performed noticeably poorly during this period. Accordingly, commentators noted that the increased restrictions from Chinese authorities may inhibit these companies’ potential profits. [Global Times 1]
This was perhaps entrenched further as China’s market regulator, the National Anti-monopoly Bureau, released guidance on overseas anti-monopoly compliance for domestic companies on Thursday, seeking to bolster efforts in reining in companies’ dominance to ensure free competition in the market. [Global Times 2]
This comes amid China’s market regulator, the State Administration for Market Regulation, stating it would be fining Alibaba, Baidu and JD.com for failing to declare 43 deals spanning as far back as 2012, citing violation of anti-monopoly legislation on Saturday. The
companies have been fined $78,000 each.
Deals in question by the regulator included the 2012 acquisition by Baidu and a 2021 deal between Baidu and Zhejiang Geely Holdings, a Chinese automaker. [BBC]
China: Hong Kong’s toppling businesses
(tjsj) On Thursday, November 18, the pro-democracy retail chain, Chickeeduck, announced they will be exiting Hong Kong next year, citing increasing pressure under the Beijing-imposed national security law, coming after a statute of prominent anti-Beijing Liu Xiaobo was removed from Chickeeduck’s Tin Hua store last week.
This echoed similar events that occurred in June last year, where Chickeeduck was told by Hong Kong authorities to remove a statue of pro-democracy Lady Liberty at a store in Tsuen Wan. [Hong Kong Free Press 4]
China: Banks fined for money laundering by Hong Kong’s banking regulator
(tjsj) The Hong Kong Monetary Authority, Hong Kong’s banking regulator has fined four banks, including the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, ICBC, and UBS for violations of anti-money laundering rules in the amount of HK$44.2 million, by virtue of the banks failing in carrying out appropriate customer due diligence. [Reuters]
China: Coal output stabilized
(tjsj) China’s state planner, the National Development and Reform Commission, announced on Sunday that China’s daily coal output has stabilized at 12 million tonnes, amidst efforts to increase power production during China’s ongoing power crunch with an increased demand for coal. [Reuters]
Commentators have noted that China’s power crunch has largely been attributed to failures of both infrastructures and institutions, uneven development of coal and electricity markets, and the low availability of renewable energy. [Foreign Affairs]
Japan: Government raising military expenditure after U.S. pressure and increasing public demand
(la) On Friday, Japan announced its plan to allocate a minimum of ¥770 billion ($6.74 billion) as a supplementary budget for defense, complementing the ¥5.3 trillion that had already been reserved. The amount will be used to acquire missiles, torpedoes and mines, and cover costs related to transport aircraft and patrol planes.
To ease domestic and foreign concerns about a potential revival of WWII militarism in Japan, Japan has long committed to limiting its military budget to 1% of GDP. But with firm pressure from the U.S. to contribute more to regional defense and growing domestic concerns about China’s military assertiveness in the East China Sea, Japan’s ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) has announced the goal of increasing military expenditure to 2% of GDP during the national elections in October this year.
In addition to the supplementary budget, Japan is planning to meet U.S. demands to shoulder more costs for hosting U.S. troops and maintenance of joint-facilities of the Japanese Self-Defense Forces and U.S. military. The Japanese government also considers extending the defense agreement with an additional clause stipulating Japan’s increased contribution, which would remain in effect for five years. [The Asahi Shimbun]
Japan: After decades of reluctance, Japan shifts to allow more permanent foreign workers
(la) In a major shift, Japan’s Justice Ministry is looking to accept foreign nationals to stay indefinitely to fill blue-collar positions, starting as early as 2022. Up until now, “specified skilled workers” have been allowed to stay in Japan for up to five years without their family members, while working in 14 sectors such as construction, farming and sanitation. The government is looking into possibilities to ease these restrictions, which is expected to increase the influx of foreign workers form countries such as China and Vietnam.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno emphasized that any change would enable visa renewal, but permanent residency status would not be granted outright. Japan has long effectively minimized immigration to maintain ethnic homogeneity, but a rapidly aging population and subsequent labor shortages have pushed the country towards welcoming foreign workers. [The Japan Times]
Japan: CDP leadership race kicked off
(la) With Junya Ogawa announcing his candidacy last Thursday, November 18, the Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) leadership election will be a four-way contest. The leadership race of Japan’s biggest opposition party follows former leader Yukio Edano’s resignation after CDP’s poor performance in the Lower House general election in October, during which the party’s number of seats in the chamber decreased from 110 to 96.
Aside from Ogawa – a former parliamentary vice minister for international affairs and communications – three other lawmakers have declared their candidacy in the election that will take place on November 30th.
The first to declare his intention to run was Kenta Izumi, a former member of the Democratic Party for the People. The second contender, Seiji Osaka is a former prime ministerial advisor, and the final, sole female candidate is Chinami Nishimura, a former senior vice minister of health, labor and welfare.
The CDP leadership election will be held on a large scale, as national lawmakers, assembly members from local levels and supporters all have the right to vote. The focal point of the leadership race will be the CDP’s recovery after the disappointing election results, as well as the party’s alliance with other opposition parties for the upper chamber election that will take place coming summer. [The Asahi Shimbun]
Japan to increase border cap from November 26
(ec) At a regular press conference on Thursday, November 18, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary Hirokazu Matsuno stated that the country will ease border restrictions put in place to contain the COVID-19 pandemic, raising the daily entry cap from 3,000 to 5,000. A review is being conducted into supervising tourist activities in the hopes of lifting the ban on tourists, with trials thought to be likely before the end of the year. [Japan Today]
Matsuno made his statement as the Japanese governments considers easing domestic restrictions, such as removing the cap on spectators at large events and moderating the limits set on dining establishments. Large events, such as sporting matches or concerts, are currently capped either at 5,000 or at 50% capacity, whilst restaurants and bars must close at 8pm, are not permitted to serve alcohol, and must limit group sizes to four people. [Kyodo News 1]
After coalition of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and Komeito succeeded in retaining a collective majority following the 49th election for House of Representatives election, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida reasserted his pledge to introduce a pandemic-relief stimulus package. This includes kickstart measures exceeding 40 trillion-yen, with cash and voucher handouts of 100,000 for children aged 18 or less, and additional aid for students facing financial difficulties, as well as a 2.5-million-yen stimulus for businesses negatively impacted by COVID-19 and wage increases for nurses, childcare workers, and nursey school employees. Kishida is also looking to restart the suspended Go To Travel program to boost the domestic tourist industry. [Kyodo News 2] [See AiR No. 45, November/2021, 2]
South Korea: Ruling party, satellite party agree to seek merger
(aml)The ruling Democratic Party (DPK) and the minor Open Democratic Party announced they would seek their merger on Thursday, November 18. The decision comes four months before the presidential election. The Open Democratic Party was formed by former DPK lawmakers ahead of last year’s parliamentary election, and won three seats in the National Assembly. [The Korea Herald]
South Korea: Parliament interferes with the Navy’s plan for light aircraft carriers
(aml) The National Assembly has complicated the Navy’s plan to develop their first homegrown light aircraft carrier by cutting the budget. The defence committee cut the budget by 93% to 500 million won next year, instead of the requested 7 billion won. The project is aimed at helping South Korea to react to any dangers coming from North Korea, and the development of indigenous technologies was one of president Moon’s election promises.
From the Assembly’s point of view the military is not ready to oversee such a large project, and failed to convince the lawmakers of the need to start immediately. At least 4 billion won is needed for a basic design process of the carrier, but the Navy said the project will not be put on hold. Instead, they would use the money for data collection and research to prepare infrastructure for the project. [The Korea Times] [The Korea Herald]
South Korea: Three key suspects in Seongnam development scandal indicted
(aml) Three key suspects in the Seongnam land development scandal were indicted by the prosecution on Monday, November 22. In 2015 the Seongnam Development Corp. allegedly collaborated with a formerly small and unknown asset management company to make them the preferred bidder in a big land development deal from which the company has profited almost 200 billion won. [AiR, No.42, October/2021, 3]
Kim Man-bae, owner of the asset management company Hwacheon Daeyu, was indicted with detention charges for breach of trust and bribery. Alongside him, two of his partners were also indicted: attorney Nam Wook with the same charges and accountant Jeong Young-hak as an accomplice without detention. They are suspected to have bribed Yoo Dong-gyu, former head of Seongnam Development Corp., with 500 million won to secure the deal. Yoo had been indicted last month and is currently waiting for his first court hearing.
The scandal has received intense media coverage since some, including the major opposition People Power Party, believe the ruling Democratic Party’s presidential candidate Lee Jae-myung was behind the scandal since he was Seongnam’s mayor at the time. Lee denied all allegations, but apologized for “appointing the wrong people”.
South Korea: Presidential candidate’s wife accused of stock price manipulation
(aml) Kim Keon-hee, the wife of the presidential candidate of the People Power Party, was recently accused of stock price manipulation related to the used car dealership Deutsch Motors. On Tuesday, November 16, the prosecution arrested the CEO of Deutsch Motors, Kwon Oh-soo, who is suspected to have played a key part in manipulating the company’s stocks worth $53 million between 2009 and 2012. Kwon allegedly leaked insider information about new investments to prompt purchases of the company’s shares, and then published false sales orders at high prices in order to confuse the market.
Kim is linked to the scandal through the man who managed part of her fortune, who was also arrested for being involved in the manipulation. The police investigation into whether Kim knew her money was used for the scheme has closed, but prosecutors have yet to decide whether to summon her for questioning.
The ruling Democratic Party has called for a thorough investigation into Kim’s involvement, and has raised concerns that her husband, Yoon Seok-youl might have used his former status as prosecutor general to cover up allegations. [The Korea Times] [The Korea Herald]
South Korea: Former dictator Chun Doo-hwan dies aged 90
(aml) Former South Korean president, Chung Doo-hwan has died aged 90 on Tuesday, November 23, in Seoul. Born in 1931, he joined the military straight out of school and came to power due to a military coup in 1979. In 1980, he brutally suppressed a pro-democratic student uprising against his regime which led to the Gwanju massacre that left more than 200 dead and 1,800 wounded. His 8-year presidency ended in 1988 after he resigned due to a nationwide student-led democratic movement. His successor, the first democratically elected president of South Korea and his aid in the military coup, Roh Taw-woo, died less than a month ago [AiR, No.44, November/2021, 1].
In 1995, Chun and Roh were found guilty of mutiny, treason and bribery and Chung received a death sentence which the Seoul High Court commuted in recognition of the fast economic development of South Korea under Chung’s rule as well as the peaceful transfer of power in 1988. Both were pardoned and freed from jail in 1997 by President Kim Young-sam in an effort to promote “national unity”. [The Guardian]
Chung won’t be given a state funeral nor be buried in the National Cemetery and Cheong Wa Dae has said it doesn’t plan on sending message of condolence, since unlike Roh, Chung has never apologized. [The Korea Herald]
Tawain: Draft anti-deepfakes amendment bill submitted to Cabinet
(dql) Taiwan Justice Ministry announced that a draft amendment to Taiwan’s Criminal Code aimed at strengthening fighting deepfakes has been submitted to the Cabinet for review. Among others, the draft proposes harsher punishments for using deepfake technology to produce pornographic and non-pornographic content with altered images of celebrities.
The legislative move comes after a Taiwanese Youtuber was arrested in October on suspicion of producing and selling pornographic videos that were digitally manipulated to have persons in the videos look like famous politicians. [Focus Taiwan]
For an account of cybercrime spurred by deepfake technology, see Etay Maor in [Dark Reading] who also introduces ways to mitigate cybersecurity threats posed by this technology.
Taiwan: New law allows government to draft special budget for arms purchases
(dql) Taiwan’s legislature has passed a bill under which the government is authorized to draft a special budget of up to NT$240 billion (US$8.63 billion) for arms procurements over the next five years, with a focus on the acquisition of mostly indigenous defense arms, aimed at upgrading the island’s anti-air and anti-surface capabilities. [Focus Taiwan]
Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in South Asia
Bangladesh: Opposition stages nationwide hunger strike for treatment of former premier Khaleda Ziaabroad
(sk/lm) Bangladesh’s main opposition political party, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), on November 21 observed a seven-hour nationwide hunger strike, seeking government permission for treatment of its chairperson Khaleda Zia abroad. [South Asia Monitor]
An arch-rival of Prime Minister Hasina’s, Zia had served 25 months out of 17 years of prison sentences in two corruption cases when the government granted her conditional release for six months in March of last year to seek medical treatment in hospital under the supervision of the prison authorities [see AiR No. 13, March/2020, 5]. The suspension has subsequently been extended twice, on condition that the former prime minister cannot go abroad [see AiR No. 10, March/2021, 2].
The former prime minister was readmitted to a health facility on November 13, just six days after her discharge from the same hospital, as her physical condition reportedly deteriorated further due to various old-age complications and other diseases. Later she was shifted to the coronary care unit (CCU) of the hospital.
In the lead-up to the hunger strike, Bangladeshi Law Minister Anisul Huq on November 18 told parliament that there was no legal basis currently to allow Zia to fly abroad for medical treatment as a convicted person. Terming the government’s refusal “inhumane”, BNP Secretary General Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir opposed the law minister’s claim and accused him of lying. [Anadolu Agency]
Bangladesh: Opposition BNP plotting to seize power with support of communal forces, Awami League alleges
(sk/lm) The general secretary of Bangladesh’s ruling Awami League (AL) party, Obaidul Quader, has alleged that the opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) is plotting to gain power with the help of communal groups. [Dhaka Tribune]
Quader, who is also serving as Minister of Road Transport and Bridges, has also commented on the ongoing elections to the Union Parishad (UP), the smallest rural administrative and local government unit in Bangladesh. According to the AL official, “serious organizational steps” would be taken against those, who had enabled the nearly 1,000 AL rebel candidates to participate in the UP elections [see AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3].
Bangladesh: Opposition MPs question opposition’s role in parliament
(sk/lm) Lawmakers of Bangladesh’s two major opposition parties, the Jatiya (JaPa) and the Bangladesh Nationalist (BNP) parties, have questioned the role of opposition parties in parliament, claiming they would only exist “on pen and paper” due to a lack of parliamentary procedure.
The MPs made their demands during a debate in Parliament on November 16 on the Leader and Deputy Leader of the Opposition (Remuneration and Privileges) Bill, 2021. The bill, later passed by Parliament by voice vote, stipulates that the Leader of the Opposition receives the same pay, allowances, and other benefits as a minister. The Deputy Leader of the Opposition will be paid the same as a state minister and will have the same benefits. [Prothom Alo]
India: Prime Minister Modi announces repealing of contentious agriculture laws
(sr/lm) In a surprise announcement on November 19, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said his government would repeal three agriculture laws that prompted more than a year of protests in the upcoming session of parliament, in a rare apparent climb down ahead of pivotal elections in farming states. [CNN] [The New York Times, $] [The Time Magazine]
The legislation, introduced in September of last year, was aimed at deregulating the sector, allowing farmers to sell produce to buyers beyond government-regulated wholesale markets where growers are assured of a minimum price. The Modi administration refused to extend the debate despite repeated requests from the opposition, and defended the laws, saying they were necessary. [AiR No. 39, September/2020, 5]
Farmers, fearing the reform would cut the prices they get for their crops, staged nationwide protests and clashed with the police on multiple occasions [see AiR No. 5, February/2021, 1]. Many demonstrators from India’s two breadbasket states, Punjab and Haryana, and others have been camping in the outskirts of the capital, New Delhi, since November 2020 — despite a harsh winter and the coronavirus pandemic.
Two days prior to Prime Minister Modi’s address to the nation, the chief minister of Punjab on November 17 delivered an announcement post meeting with 32 unions under the SKM. He said that all the First Information Reports which were registered by the Punjab Police against the farmers would be cancelled following a prescribed procedure with due diligence. [The Hindu]
The Samyukt Kisan Morcha (Joint Farmers Front, SKM), an umbrella body of unions leading the protests, welcomed the announcement. They have, however, decided to wait to dismantle the protests till the laws are repealed via parliamentary procedure. Moreover, a Communist Party-affiliated farmers' union has announced it would continue its protest until the Modi administration introduces minimum price guarantees for all major crops – something the government has deemed unfeasible. [The New Indian Express] [The Straits Times]
The prime minister’s decision is seen by observers as a political masterstroke, coming as it does ahead of key state polls: Seven Indian states will hold elections early next year to determine whether Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will retain power. The BJP currently governs six of the seven states, including predominantly agricultural Uttar Pradesh, a state seen as a bellwether for the national vote. While the prime minister himself remains popular, according to some polls, his BJP suffered a decisive loss in elections it had considered winnable, in the eastern state of West Bengal [see AiR No. 18, May/2021, 1]. [BBC] [The Quint]
India: Ex-minister's home set on fire after he compares far-right Hindus to radical Islamists
(lm) Hindu hardliners have attacked and set fire to the home of Salman Khurshid, one of the top leaders of the opposition Indian National Congress (INC) party, after he released a book in which he compared groups championing India’s predominant form of Hindu nationalism, Hindutva, to radical Islamists groups earlier this month. [The Independent, $]
Police said a mob of around 15 to 20 men had barged into the house, fired shots and then proceeded to set a part of the house on fire on November 15. Khurshid was away with his family at the time of the incident, which took place in Uttarakhand state. [The Straits Times]
Prior to the attack, Khurshid – a Muslim who served as foreign minister from 2012 to 2014 – had published a book, “Sunrise over Ayodhya – Nationhood in our Times”, in which he notes that “Sanatan Dharma and classical Hinduism known to sages and saints were being pushed aside by a robust version of Hindutva, by all standards a political version similar to the jihadist Islam of groups like ISIS and Boko Haram of recent years.” [FirstPost]
In light of this passage, the book has set off an uproar across the country. While several of Khurshid's colleagues from the INC disagreed with the views expressed in the book, party leader Rahul Gandhi steered clear of backing Khurshid on his comments, calling instead for the need to differentiate between Hindutva and Hinduism. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), for its part, accused Khurshid and the INC of “weaving a web” against Hindus and of hurting religious sentiments. [Hindustan Times 1]
In related developments, a Delhi court on November 17 refused to stop the publication, sale or circulation of the book, observing that the petitioner – the head of the right-wing Hindu Sena organization – failed to establish the “balance of convenience” in his favor. [Hindustan Times 2]
India: Modi administration to delay labor reform roll-out to deter another backlash
(lm) The Prime Minister Modi-led government plans to defer implementation of contentious labor reforms until after pivotal state elections next year, Bloomberg reported on November 22 citing people familiar with the discussions. [Bloomberg, $]
Parliament passed bills that would make it easier to hire and fire workers in 2019 and 2020. Since then, however, the central government has missed several deadlines to formally implement the four labor codes – the latest being October – and no new target has been set.
According to the report by Bloomberg, the Modi administration is fearing a backlash similar to the one that recently forced it to climb down on three agriculture laws that prompted more than a year of protests [see entry in this decision]. About 10 trade unions have demanded the scrapping of the four labor codes alongside the repeal of the farm laws.
The decision to repeal the farm reform laws – his biggest policy U-turn since taking office – was seen by observers as a political masterstroke, coming as it did ahead of key state polls: Seven Indian states will hold elections early next year to determine whether Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will retain power. The BJP currently governs six of the seven states, including predominantly agricultural Uttar Pradesh, a state seen as a bellwether for the next federal election in 2024.
India: Supreme Court stops Tripura police from arresting lawyers, reporter under anti-terror law
(sr/lm) India’s Supreme Court has ordered police in Tripura state to refrain from taking any coercive measures, including arrest, against two lawyers and one journalist booked under the country’s stringent anti-terrorism law for their social media posts and reports on the recent anti-Muslim violence in the northeastern state. [JURIST]
Earlier this month Tripura police registered a case under the Unlawful Activities Prevention Act (UAPA) against Supreme Court lawyers who were part of a fact-finding team which had visited the state following violent protests last month [see AiR No. 45, November/2021, 2]. Additionally, law enforcement agencies booked 102 social media users, including journalists and activists, under the UAPA and accused them of criminal conspiracy and forgery.
In response, the accused filed a writ petition before India’s top court to quash the proceedings. The petition also challenged the constitutionality of several provisions of the UAPA.
The bench, headed the chief justice, issued notice to the state and ordered that, “in the meantime, no coercive steps including arrest shall be taken against the petitioners.” The top court also observed that charges under the UAPA against members of civil society who were merely participating in finding facts and ensuring their truthful dissipation, would amount to “criminalisation of the very act of fact-finding and reporting”. [The Hindu]
Separately, an Indian court has granted bail to two who had been detained in response to a complaint by a local Hindu right-wing activist who alleged that they gave a speech "instigating" Muslims against the Hindu community in Tripura. The charges against the two women include criminal conspiracy and "promoting enmity" between religious groups. [BBC]
India: Supreme Court refrains from passing directive on hazardous air pollution, decries ‘apathy’
(sr/lm) India’s Supreme Court on November 17 refrained from passing directives on the worsening air pollution in the capital, New Delhi after the central government assured implemented measures would help to improve the conditions. The top court, however, criticized officials for what it called their “apathy”, and slated the next hearing for November 24. [The New Indian Express]
The Indian capital has been battling a toxic haze since early November due to crop waste fires in the neighbouring states of Haryana, Punjab and Uttar Pradesh, firecrackers being burst during Diwali, emissions from automobiles and coal-fired plants outside the city.
The central government – run by Prime Minister Narendra Modi – is accusing the Delhi administration – run by an opposition political party – of inaction, and vice versa. In light of this, the Supreme Court stepped in earlier this month in response to a petition and after the city had endured pollution levels comparable to levels generated by major wildfires [see AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3].
Earlier last week then, Delhi’s emergency measures went into effect. Construction activity, diesel generators and trucks were banned. Schools were closed and employers were asked to keep half of their staffs at home. Six power plants outside the capital were ordered shut down. Moreover, in the lead-up to last week’s hearing, India’s Environment Ministry convened a day-long meeting with officials from Delhi, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Haryana to discuss additional anti-pollution measures. [The Hindu 1]
The Supreme Court, however, raised doubts about the efficacy of the measures adopted during the emergency meeting. [The Hindu 2]
India: Supreme Court panel recommends openly gay lawyer as judge of Delhi High Court
(sr) In what is being described as a milestone for LGBTQ rights, the Supreme Court’s Collegium – a committee headed by the India’s chief justice – has proposed the name of an openly gay lawyer to become a Delhi High Court judge. If the proposal is approved by Prime Minister Modi’s central government, senior advocate Saurabh Kirpal may become India’s first openly gay judge. [Hindustan Times]
The Supreme Court panel first considered Kirpal for the post in 2018 but deferred its decision at least four times. This was allegedly due to the central government's background check which flagged Kirpal's partner, a foreign national, as a potential security risk, a claim the lawyer has dismissed. [The Indian Express]
Kirpal was counsel for two key petitioners in a case that resulted in the Supreme Court’s 2018 landmark ruling, which decriminalized gay sex. [BBC]
India: Tensions in Indian-administered Kashmir high after deaths of men ‘used as human shields’
(sr/lm) Authorities in Indian-administered Kashmir ordered a probe on November 18 into a security operation that killed four people, and later exhumed two bodies and returned them to families who alleged that police used innocent civilians as a “human shield”.
Police initially said the two civilians died in “crossfire” when officers on November 15 raided a shopping complex, as a counter-insurgency operation in which two militants and their associates had been killed in a shootout. [Voice of America]
However, witnesses and families of the civilians and one suspected rebel have denied the police version of events, saying they were deliberately killed by Indian troops while being used as a human shield in the standoff. To the further anguish of the families, authorities later secretly buried all of the victims in a remote northwestern village. [Al Jazeera] [The Guardian]
Following demands by the families and widespread public outrage in the disputed territory, authorities on November 19 exhumed the bodies of two civilians. Moreover, New Delhi’s top administrator in the region, Manoj Sinha, said the government would take "suitable action" as soon as a report into the incident was completed. [Associated Press]
Separately, five militants believed to belong to a rebel group known as The Resistance Front (TRF) – associated with one of the main Islamic militant groups operating in Kashmir, Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba – had been killed on November 17 in two gun-battles south of Srinagar. The TRF claimed recent killings of migrants in the disputed territory [see AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2]. [The Straits Times]
India: Three terrorists killed near India-Myanmar border in Arunachal Pradesh state
(sr) Post the death of seven people in an ambush by the People's Liberation Army of Manipur and Manipur Naga People’s Front, three terrorists belonging to the National Socialist Council of Nagaland-Khaplang (NSCN-K-YA)’s Yung Aung faction were killed in an encounter on November 15. [Hindustan Times]
It was reported that the terrorists were killed in a counter-insurgency operation when a round of fire was exchanged with six troops belonging to the Assam Rifles near the India-Myanmar border in Arunachal Pradesh’s Longding district at Khogla. [Times Now]
India: Navy commissions first stealth-guided missile destroyer, fourth Scorpene submarine
(sr/lm) To strengthen its capabilities amid changing power dynamics in the Indian Ocean Region, the Indian Navy last week commissioned the first of four Vishakhapatnam-class guided-missile destroyers, along with its fourth Scorpène-class submarine. [India Today] [The Print]
The submarine is part of India’s s Project 75, which comprises the construction of a total of six attack submarines designed by French defense contractor Naval Group (formerly known as DCNS) and manufactured by India’s by Mazagon Dock Limited (MDL) in Mumbai [see AiR No. 46, November/2020, 3]. Two of these submarines were previously commissioned in 2017 and 2019, respectively, one is currently undergoing sea trials, while the last one is still under construction. [Naval News]
Separately, a proposed procurement of armed drones from the United States is set to come up for critical approval shortly. India has long been planning to purchase 30 armed versions of the US-made MQ-9B Predator drones – ten for each service – but the process has been repeatedly delayed over the last couple of years, as New Delhi refused to succumb to the Washington’s constant push of concluding the deal [see AiR No. 11, March/2021, 3]. [Hindustan Times] [The Hindu]
Maldives: Parliament passes hate crime bill to check extremism
(lm) The parliament of the Maldives has passed a bill criminalizing the public usage of words like “non-believer” and “anti-Muslim”, after the legislation had created sharp divisions within the ruling coalition as it made its way through the parliamentary process.
The Maldivian Democratic Party-led coalition government, which came to power after a landslide victory in 2018, had promised to take on the challenge of growing Islamic extremism in the largely moderate Muslim-majority country. However, the coalition, which also includes the Islamic Adhaalath Party of Home Imran Abdullah’s, had failed for a long time to form a consensus on any such bill.
The turning point came in May this year when former Maldivian President and incumbent Speaker of Parliament, Mohamed Nasheed, narrowly escaped an assassination attempt. Maldivian security agencies have been tight-lipped about the investigations, but indicated that jihadists elements were behind the attack. [AiR No. 19, May/2021, 2]
Against the larger backdrop of growing tensions within the MDP over the government’s policies, mainly on corruption and religious extremism, Nasheed then pressed President Ibrahim Mohammed Solih to pass the Hate Crimes Bill. [AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3]
Nepal: Lawyers to boycott all hearings; Supreme Court justices approve lottery system to assign cases
(lm) The Nepal Bar Association (NBA), an umbrella organization which represents the country’s lawyers, has announced its members would continue boycott court proceedings throughout this week, after an ultimatum for Chief Justice Cholenda Shumsher Rana to resign had ended. The lawyers’ sit-ins in front of the Supreme Court will also continue. [Khabarhub]
For the past four weeks, the NBA and 18 out of 19 Supreme Court justices have been demanding Rana’s resignation for allegedly undermining the integrity and independence of the judiciary. The justices point specifically to allegations of a relationship between the chief justice and the Prime Minister Deuba-led government. They also cite allegations concerning the allocation of cases for hearing to specific justices, and the failure to list for hearing a number of writs against constitutional appointments that the chief justice had participated in making. [AiR No. 44, November/2021, 1]
Rana, however, refused to budge, forcing the NBA to change its strategy.
Meanwhile, the Supreme Court justices agreed to return to duty after a meeting on November 18, which was not attended by Chief Justice Rana, and to introduce a lottery system for assigning cases to justices. Once the new system enters into force, the chief justice will no longer have the exclusive right to assign cases. [The Kathmandu Post]
Pakistan: Parliament passes bill to permit electronic voting
(lm) A joint session of Pakistan’s parliament on November 17 approved amendments to the country’s election laws, including electronic voting and voting right to the Pakistanis living abroad in the next general polls, two weeks after a similar session had to be put off amidst opposition within the ruling coalition. The legislation was vehemently opposed by a strong opposition, which called the policy an attempt to rig the next elections. [Anadolu Agency] [Dawn]
The introduction of the electronic voting machines (EVMs) and the provision of voting rights for roughly nine million overseas Pakistanis are among comprehensive electoral reforms the Khan administration wants to pass before the country goes into elections again in 2023.
Earlier, the amendments had been approved by parliament’s lower house – the National Assembly – but rejected by Senate, the upper house, where the opposition enjoys a majority, forcing the government to call a joint session. [ABC News]
But another joint session of parliament scheduled for earlier this month had to be called off amidst opposition from coalition partners of Prime Minister’s ruling Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). To gain support for the legislation, Prime Minister Khan convened a meeting with representatives of various constituent parties on November 15. [AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3]
Pakistan: Government drops ‘un-Islamic’ chemical castration as penalty for rapists
(lm) Prime Minister Khan’s government has removed a clause from a new law that would have introduced chemical castration as a possible punishment for serial rapists, after a state-run council of clerics had at the last minute advised such a punishment was against Islam.
On November 17, the ruling coalition hurriedly approved 33 legislative bills, including the anti-rape law, in a joint session of the parliament, and some local media incorrectly reported that the castration clause was approved. [The Straits Times]
The castration clause was quietly removed from the documents before the bill was put before lawmakers. The Islamic Council of Ideology, a constitutional advisory body mandated to interpret and ensure all Pakistani laws are in line with Islam, had reportedly objected to the punishment of chemical castration for rapists for being an “un-Islamic” practice. [Associated Press]
The legislation requires the government to establish special courts across Pakistan to try rape cases in secrecy and decide them "expeditiously, preferably within four months." Under the law, a nationwide register of sex offenders will also be maintained. The identity of victims will be protected and special "anti-rape crisis cells" will be formed to conduct medical examinations of victims within hours of the crime. [Voice of America]
The new law, which was first introduced by presidential decree in December of last year, is a response to a public outcry against a recent surge in incidents of rape of women and children in Pakistan and growing demands for effectively stemming the crime. Prime Minister Imran Khan proposed last year in repeated public statements that he wanted to introduce chemical castration amid a national outcry over increasing offences. [AiR No. 51, December/2020, 4]
Pakistan: Chief of Islamist militant group freed after deal following protests
(lm) Pakistan freed Saad Hussain Rizvi, leader of the hardline Islamist Tehreek-e-Labiak (TLP), on November 18, a week after removing his name from a terrorism watch list under a deal to end weeks of deadly protests by his followers. [Al Jazeera] [NBC News]
The release came two weeks after the Khan administration and the TLP reached an agreement to end two weeks of violent protests that left at least seven policemen dead and dozens injured, as protesters blocked major roads and a highway in and around the eastern city of Lahore.
Under the deal, the government of Prime Minister Imran Khan agreed to free over 2,000 detained members of the TLP movement, lifted a ban on the group and agreed to let it contest elections. In return, the TLP would shun the politics of violence and withdraw a demand to have France's ambassador expelled over the publication of cartoons that depicted the Prophet Muhammad. [AiR No. 45, November/2021, 2]
Rizvi was released on the eve of the first death anniversary of his father and TLP founder Khadim Hussain Rizvi’s. The party said it planned to hold three days of ceremonies to mark the anniversary.
Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) Senator Ejaz Chaudhry, who had previously served as Prime Minister Khan’s chief political advisor, on November 20 visited Rizvi to congratulate him on his release after seven-month detention. [Dawn]
Pakistan passes bill to allow Indian spy suspect to appeal conviction
(lm) A joint session of Pakistan’s parliament has passed a bill providing the right of appeal to Kulbhushan Jadhav, an Indian national who sits on death row since being convicted for spying by a Pakistani military court four years ago.
The law passed on November 17 gives foreign nationals convicted by military courts in Pakistan the right to file an appeal before a high court, as well as to file petitions seeking consular access. It is aimed at complying with a 2019 ruling by the International Court of Justice (ICJ) that ordered Islamabad to provide Jadhav the right of review and reconsideration by “means of its own choosing”.
The government decided to introduce the bill at a joint session of parliament after it was passed by the lower chamber in June this year but failed to get passed by the upper house within the mandatory period of 90 days. [AiR No. 25, June/2021, 4]
Speaking after the joint session of parliament, the minister for law and justice, Farogh Naseem, said the passing of the bill had prevented India from filing a contempt case with the ICJ, adding that New Delhi could have moved the United Nations Security Council for imposing sanctions on Pakistan. [Dawn]
Experts said the law would not make a material difference to the case of Jadhav and was more about meeting legal requirements so that he could mount a proper appeal in Pakistani courts.
India expressed misgivings about the law, saying it still does not fulfil the terms laid down by the ICJ in its July 2019 ruling which included the provision that India be allowed consular access to Jadhav.
In September of last year, Pakistan had rejected India’s request to allow a Queen’s Counsel or an Indian lawyer to represent Jadhav in the appeals hearing, arguing that only a lawyer allowed to practice in the country can be appointed as his counsel [see AiR No. 38, September/2020, 4].
Pakistan: Protests erupt in Gwadar amid growing backlash against CPEC
(lm) Massive protests involving thousands of people have erupted in Pakistan's port city of Gwadar against unnecessary checkpoints, a severe shortage of water and electricity and threats to livelihoods from illegal fishing. [Business Standard]
The city’s deep sea port forms the fulcrum of $50 billion in projects linked to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC). The demonstrations constitute the latest sign of a growing backlash in the southwestern Pakistani Balochistan province against China's multibillion-dollar infrastructure project.
A suicide bomber in August detonated his explosives near a motorcade carrying Chinese personnel working on an expressway in Gwadar, killing two Pakistani children playing by the roadside and wounding a Chinese national and two other Pakistanis. [AiR No. 35, August/2021, 5]
Sri Lanka: Trials connected to 2019 Easter Bombings case commence
(lm) A Sri Lankan court has begun two trials connected to bombings that killed that killed more than 260 people and injured 500 more in 2019 [see AiR (4/4/2019)], amidst appeals for greater accountability from victim support groups. [Al Jazeera]
In the first trial that started on November 22, former National Police Chief Pujith Jayasundara is facing a total of 855 charges of murder and attempted murder for failing to act on multiple warnings from intelligence agencies, including from India and the United States. Ex-Defence Secretary Hemasiri Fernando, the top official in the Defence Ministry at the time, faces similar charges in a trial that began later the same day. [The Hindu]
Both defendants were named in a report by the Presidential Commission of Inquiry that was handed to Parliament in February. In addition to Jayasundara and Fernando, the commission recommended criminal proceedings against President Maithripala Sirisena, who left office in November 2019, former Chief of National Intelligence Sisira Mendia, and other senior police officers. [AiR No. 9, March/2021, 1]
The trial of 25 men accused of carrying out the attacks was postponed to January 12. Police filed over 23,000 charges against those suspects, including conspiring to murder, aiding and abetting the attacks, and collecting arms and ammunition. The group also includes Naufer Moulavi, who officials say masterminded the attacks and is linked to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS) terror group. [News First]
On November 21, dozens of Catholic community members held protests and laid flowers at multiple events organized to remember those lost in the coordinated series of attacks on three Catholic churches and three luxury hotels. Participants appealed to the government to support survivors and ensure the trials are allowed to proceed without political interference. [The Straits Times]
Sri Lanka: Government to halt subsidies to chemical fertilizers, President Rajapaksa says
(lm) Sri Lanka will halt subsidies to chemical fertilizer in line with a policy of “green agriculture”, President Gotabaya Rajapaksa said on November 22 during a meeting to discuss the country’s fertilizer crisis. [EconomyNext]
In the lead-up to the meeting, a secretary of Sri Lanka’s Agricultural Ministry said an import ban on all agrochemicals, including herbicides and pesticides, would be lifted – an announcement that was later denied by the minister of agriculture, Mahindananda Aluthgamage. [ColomboPage] [The Straits Times]
In May, the government in a surprise move banned the imports of chemical fertilizers – widely used in the tea and rice industries – ostensibly to become the first country in the world to grow 100 percent organic produce. The decision was believed to be a means to reduce the outflow of dwindling foreign reserves, which had taken a hit in light of the pandemic.
Following widespread farmer protests warning that the abandoning of agrochemicals would critically hit yields, however, the Rajapaksa administration already walked back some restrictions in August, lifting the fertilizer import ban for tea, the country's main export earner.
The subject of fertilizers has also started to test ties between Sri Lanka and China, a key ally to Colombo. Earlier this month, a Sri Lankan government agency denied a Chinese vessel carrying organic fertilizer that experts had found to be tainted with pathogens entry to the South Asian nation, sparking a legal tussle. [AiR No. 45, November/2021, 2]
Constitutional Law and –Politics, Human Rights and National Security in Southeast Asia
Indonesia: Police charge top Islamic council member for links to terrorist group
(ms) Indonesian national police’s counter terrorism squad Densus 88 arrested a member of a top Islamic council under terrorism charges on November 16. Ahmad Zain-An-Najah, a member of the Indonesian Ulema Council, was arrested along with two other associates in separate raids, each suspected of raising funds for the al Qaeda-linked regional terror network Jemaah Islamiyah (JI). Authorities claim that Ahmad Zain is involved in JI’s advisory council and that some of the funds from a charity he established have been used to mobilize JI. The second suspect, Farid Ahmad Okbah, has a managerial role in the charity and is believed to have channeled money to the JI advocacy team. The third suspect, Anung al-Hamad, is a member of this advocacy team. [Jakarta Globe]
The Ulema Council, of which Ahmad Zain is a member, has not been linked to militant activities. As Indonesia’s top Islamic scholars’ body, the council works on behalf of Mulism’s interests in Indonesia, acting as an interface between the Indonesian government and the Islamic communities.
A day after the arrest, police revealed that JI militants have attempted to infiltrate moderate Islamic groups and government organizations for more than a decade. Eight policepersons, five members of the military and 18 civil servants have been arrested for involvement in terrorism since 2010. The police said it is also likely militants have tried to infiltrate NGOs and sports groups. [Benar News]
With cells in Indonesia, Singapore, Malaysia and the Philippines, JI seeks to establish an Islamic state extending across Southeast Asia. The group was responsible for a string of high-profile attacks through the 1990s and early 2000s, including the 2002 Bali bombings, which killed over 200 people in the tourist district of Kuta. It is considered a state opponent in Indonesia and has been designated a terrorist group by other countries and the United Nations. The group has not staged a major attack in Indonesia since 2011. [Stanford Centre for International Security and Cooperation]
Police have arrested 876 members of the group since the 2002 Bali Bombings, including the recent arrest of five people accused of illicitly trafficking guns and providing military training for JI recruits. [See AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3] The number of members and sympathizers, however, is estimated to be 10 times the total arrests. [Benar News]
In recent years there has been a resurgence of terrorist attacks in Indonesia. Many have been linked to citizens upon their return to Indonesia, having fought for the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq. A new terror group, Jemaah Ansharut Daulah (JAD), has been the most active in the country, with a series of attacks targeting churches. The government has launched a major crackdown on JAD. Densus also arrested 20 suspected members with alleged links to the global terror network Islamic State in separate operations in East java in March. [Jakarta Globe 2]
Indonesia: Renewed Papua and West Papua autonomy legislation commences
(ms) The renewed Special Autonomy Law for the provinces of Papua and West Papua came into effect on November 21, intended to initiate development in Indonesia’s poorest region. The new law, which was ratified in July, replaces the old special autonomy legislation from 2001, extending regional autonomy for another 20 years. [See AiR No. 29, July/2021, 3]
The Indonesian government claims the law will guarantee affirmative action for Indonesia Papuans in local politics, increase healthcare and education funding, ensure Indigenous Papuans are prioritized for jobs in the region, and ensure that a larger share of the proceeds from oil, gas, and other natural resources remain within the region. [Benar News] [The Diplomat]
The new law has been met with opposition from locals, including key regional groups, who were not consulted before its ratification. The Papuan Indigenous People’s Council has lodged a petition with Indonesia’s Constitutional Court to revoke two new articles, which they claim will limit decentralization and autonomy in the region. This includes Article 76 that divide the Papua region into more administrative areas and two sections of Article 28 which abolish local political parties. [Benar News] [The Diplomat]
Locals have also spoken out against the purported economic benefits of the legislation. Although the Indonesian government says it has disbursed Rp 138.65 trillion (U.S. $9.72 billion) in special autonomy funds for Papua and West Papua under the legislation over the past 20 years, locals claim the money has been pocketed by those in power rather than benefiting the Indigenous Melanesian population. As such, Papua province (including the West Papua province) remains at the bottom of the list of provinces ranked by the Human Development Index for Indonesia, which measures factors such as life expectancy, education, and standard of living. [Benar News]
The original legislation for special autonomy was introduced in 2001 to pacify the movement for independence in Papua, Indonesia’s easternmost province. A former Dutch colony, Papua declared independence in 1961, but was annexed by Indonesia two years later. In 1969 a UN-backed referendum formally incorporated the region into Indonesia, but the vote was widely considered as rigged due to its low participation rate, sparking decades of sporadic acts of guerrilla warfare in the struggle for independence.
Indonesia: Separatist and TNI personal killed in separate gunfights in Papua
(ms) The Indonesian military has confirmed that soldiers killed an armed Papuan separatist during a gunfight in the Intan Jaya District on November 14. None of the army personnel were injured during the gunfight. The military has also denied that a military post was torched by members of the National Liberation Army of West Papua, despite claims made by the separatist group. [Antara News] In a separate incident, on November 20, members of the Papuan Armed Criminal Group (KKB) opened fire on a police station in the Sugapa District, killing a TNI personal and injuring another. [VOI]
Tensions in the provinces of Papua and West Papua have been on the rise in recent years. In August and September 2019 several large-scale independence protests turned violent, resulting in the deployment of about 6,000 police and military personnel and the restriction of social media and news coverage. [See AiR No. 35, August/2019, 4] Further, following the assassination of Indonesia’s top intelligence chief by rebel groups in April this year, authorities have designated the separatist rebels as terrorist groups and intensified their crackdown. [See AiR No. 18, May/2021, 1]
Indonesia: General sworn in as new TNI commander
(ms) President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo swore in Gen. Andika Perkasa as the new Indonesian Military (TNI) commander on November 17. Andika, who was the sole nominee for the post, replaces the now retired Air Chief Marshal Hadi Tjahjanto. Jokowi also swore in Gen. Dudung Abdurrachman, previously the Army’s Strategic Reserves commander, as the Army’s new chief of staff to replace Andika. [The Jakarta Post, $]
As commander of the TNI, Andika intends to focus on bolstering the defense of Indonesia’s borders, focusing particularly on protecting the country’s remote islands. To do so, he is expected to draw on his connection to the US to cooperate against Chinese maritime provocations. Recent months have witnessed increased Chinese incursions into Indonesia exclusive economic zone and around its Natuna Islands. [Nikkei Asia] [See also AiR No. 40, October/2021, 1] [See also AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2] [See also AiR No. 43, October/2021, 4]
Domestically, Andika has promised for the TNI to take a softer approach to resolve separatist conflicts in Papua amid rising tensions. This will include territorial units, such as district military commands, enlisted officers, and noncommissioned officers deployed as village supervisory officers. Human rights groups have expressed concern over whether Andika will keep this promise given his alleged history of human rights violations, including the killing of a Papuan activist while serving in Papua in 2001. [The Jakarta Post, $] [Jakarta Post 2, $]
Under former military commanders, the TNI has chosen a combative approach to deal with the issue of Papuan Independence, cracking down violently on separatist groups. In the last three years, the TNI has increased military operations, with over 20,000 troops sent to the province, intending to end the separatist movement. According to Amnesty International, 47 cases of suspected unlawful killings occurred between February 2018 and August 2020, alongside other serious human rights violations committed by the military and police forces, including arbitrary arrests, detention, and torture. Military operations have also led to the displacement of approximately 5,000 indigenous villagers into refugee camps. [Amnesty International] [Minority Rights]
Upon Andika’s nomination for the TNI commander position, a coalition of civil society organizations expressed concerns that the rotational policy for the position of military commander set out in the 2004 TNI law had been ignored [See AiR No. 45, November/2021, 2]. The law mandates that the position be rotated among representatives of the Army, Navy, and Air Force branches, and there is an unwritten agreement that each branch takes consecutive turns. Now, with Andika’s appointment, the Navy has been skipped in way for the army. This is not the first time this has happened. During Jokowi’s first and second terms, three out of four of his military commanders have been from the Army. This has led to speculation that Andika’s appointment may be due to the influence of the Army or individual active or retired generals seeking to serve their political interests. [Jakarta Post 2, $]
Indonesia: Alleged cyberattack targets Indonesian police
(ms) A cyberhacker has claimed to have stolen the personal data of 28,000 Indonesian police officers by infiltrating Indonesia’s national police server. Information includes names, addresses, work units, ranks, emails, phone numbers, and blood types, according to the hacker who claims to be from Brazil. Last month, the same hacker also claimed an attack on Indonesia’s Cyber Encryption Agency. Indonesian police are investigating the claims. [Reuters]
The incident comes amongst a rise in cyberattacks in Indonesia in 2021, with 888 million attempts recorded from January to August. The digital security of Indonesian state agencies is particularly vulnerable. For example, the personal data and health status of 1.3 million people were exposed in August due to a flaw in the health ministry’s COVID-19 app. Plus in September, a group known as Mustang Panda claimed to have hacked the country’s intelligence agency and 10 government ministries. [Reuters]
Analysts claim Indonesia’s cybersecurity laws and regulations are ineffective in preventing cyberthreats and cybercrime. In May 2019, the Legislative Body of Indonesia’s lower house initiated a Cybersecurity and Cyber Resilience Bill, but it was never passed into law. The Bill covered several important cybersecurity aspects, such as critical infrastructure, the development of cybersecurity technology in Indonesia, the protection and security of information and network infrastructure, and criminal sanctions for violators. It was withdrawn after heavy criticism that the process did not involve the private sector and that provisions were overly cumbersome and costly for businesses. [Center for Indonesian Policy Studies] [The Conversation]
Amongst ASEAN members, only Singapore, Malaysia, and Thailand have passed a comprehensive cybersecurity law.
Laos: Stakeholders prepare to discuss environmental and civil effects of Sanakham Dam Project
(bs) Civil society groups from the four southern regions on the Mekong River will meet to discuss the impact on the local population and ecosystem by the construction of the Sanakham Dam, in the north of Laos.
On November 29 and 30, the Mekong River Commission (MRC) will hold a stakeholder consultation meeting in preparation of the Prior Consultation and Agreement (PNPCA) for the Sanakham Dam project. It is expected to welcome over 200 people including representatives from communities, civil societies, the private sector, international and local NGOs, educational institutions, and the press.
Despite expressing their intention to participate in the conference, Lao stakeholders received no information regarding the Sanakham Dam project from the Lao government.
Prior to the meeting, the chairman of the Thai Water Partnership and the Lao Environmental Community Association shared their concerns on the negative impact the construction of additional dams on the Sanakham and Mekong rivers would bring to the population and the ecosystem.
The dam is expected to have significant environmental and social impacts, as well as affecting cross-border relations. Thailand has been consulting fishermen who have been affected by the construction of dams in Laos to develop the least damaging plan for the new hydropower project.
According to the [Environmental and Social Impact Assessment Report], the Sanakham Dam will affect 13 Lao communities in three districts, and a total of 621 families - nearly 3,000 people. The Sanakham Dam project was assigned to a Lao subsidiary of China's Datang International Power Generation, at a cost of about $2 billion USD. The Sanakham Dam project initially entered into the pre-consultation phase on September 9, 2019 and was expected to begin construction in 2020. However, due to the Covid-19 outbreak, the project was postponed, and is now scheduled to be completed by 2028. [Radio Free Asia, in Lao]
Lao PDR aims to ensure civil registration to all citizens
(bs) The Lao government has committed to ensure comprehensive civil registration to all Lao citizens by developing a database via a centralized electronic system.
According to a latest report of the Ministry of Home Affairs on civil registration in Lao PDR, the current registration system is mostly paper-based, largely inaccessible, and decentralized. The government has been cooperating with local authorities to implement electronic registration nationwide. They are also working on systemically increasing accessibility and efficiency by training government officials and providing the necessary resources to local registration centers such as computers, scanners, and printers. [Ministry of Home Affairs, in Lao]
The country’s objective is to register all citizens and newborns and provide birth certificates to at least 70 percent of the population by 2030 as part of the agenda for sustainable development. [Vientiane Times $]
Lao PDR-European Union joint statement for Lao socio-economic development
(bs) On November 17, the team of European development partners for Lao PDR (the European Union, France, Germany, Hungary, Luxembourg, and Switzerland) presented a joint statement aiming to strengthen the EU-Lao PDR economic and political partnership.
The document was drafted in compliance with the 9th National Socio-Economic Development Plan (NSEDP); specifically, in the framework of the Team Europe Strategy in Lao PDR for 2021-2025 drawn by the European representatives in Laos of the United Nations.
The objectives of the 550-million EUR project include “1) fostering a green and inclusive economy; 2) strengthening human capital and; 3) promoting good governance.” Team Europe Partners will also invest part of the fund in the post-COVID-19 Recovery Plan for the Lao economy. [European Union External Action Service]
Lao workers waiting years for payments from Chinese dam contractors
(bs) Lao families displaced by the construction of a China-endorsed dam have been waiting for compensation for resettlement and employment salary for six years.
In 2015, Nam Tha 1 Lao Power Company Limited, the Chinese company in charge of the dam, and two subcontractors resettled several residential areas and hired Lao workers to build eleven resettlement villages. Most of the families are still waiting for their lost-land compensation, and the workers are yet to receive their wages. [Radio Free Asia]
Moreover, after the resettlement, the villagers had lost their lands and consequently their job as farmers. The National Assembly has urged local authorities to create new jobs for those affected by the dam project. [AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3]
Malaysia: UMNO to win Malacca state election
(nd) The ruling United Malays National Organisation’s (UMNO) deputy president Mohamad Hasan and Prime Minister Ismail Sabri Yaakob discussed the possibility of holding a general election before 2023. This comes after UMNO — led by former PM Najib Razak — won the by-elections in Malacca state over the weekend and in an effort to make use of a pro-government sentiment.
UMNO won 18 of the 28 seats, its allies in the Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition won three, resulting in a comfortable majority. The successful outcome of the state elections fuels hopes of some of Najib’s return to national politics. Both Najib and UMNO party president Zahid Hamidi currently face corruption charges at court. Najib was ousted as PM in 2018 for his involvement in the multibillion-ringgit corruption scandal involving state fund 1MDB.
PM Ismail, however, could be opposed to the idea to hold elections earlier. First, it would likely be the end to his premiership. Second, he came to a memorandum of understanding (MOU) with the opposition that the government would not hold an election before July next year.
The strong outcome in Malacca, in any case, which was the first test for UMNO after its comeback to the top post since 2018, will help UMNO dominate politically and casts its shadow to the upcoming national election also with respect to the now-allies in the coalition, Bersatu and PAS. [Bloomberg] [South China Morning Post]
Myanmar: Migrant workers detained in China after illegal entry
(tl) Four hundred Myanmar migrant workers have been detained for more than a year by Chinese authorities for entering the country illegally and working without necessary documents at a seafood factory.
Following their release by the authorities, some of the migrants described the living conditions in Chinese prisons as 'pitiful', complaining of internal overcrowding and poor sanitary conditions.
Some 230,000 migrants from Myanmar have tried to enter China illegally in search of work, fleeing the country following the coup d'état of February 1 and the state of the country's economy. With no official documents and no means of ensuring their own livelihood, migrants who have managed to cross the border have often been subjected to exploitation by local business leaders.
Although there is no official agreement between China and Myanmar on migrant workers, every year hundreds of thousands of Myanmar citizens travel to China in search for work and better living conditions. According to the U.N.'s International Organization for Migration, Myanmar is the country with the highest number of migrant workers in Southeast Asia. [Radio Free Asia]
Myanmar: Police detained a 13-year-old boy
(tl) Police in Myanmar detained a 13-year-old boy from a village in Mandalay’s Amarapura Township, promising to release him only when his father, a member of the National League for Democracy (NLD), agreed to surrender to the authorities.
As reported by local witnesses, following the raid of the family’s home, members of the police allegedly beat his mother, who is in hiding after her son's arrest.
In recent months, the country's authorities have abducted dozens of family members in an attempt to force opponents of the regime to surrender. Last week a man was killed in detention after junta authorities in Madaya Township detained him because they were unable to find his nephew. [Myanmar NOW 1] [Myanmar NOW 2]
Myanmar: Clashes between the junta and the resistance forces increase
(tl) More than 80 junta soldiers and 14 civilian resistance fighters were reportedly killed during clashes between the military and the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) in Sagaing and Magwe regions during the last week.
According to a video recorded by members of the resistance forces, the government army used helicopters to bomb civilian forces. In addition, soldiers reportedly used at least 13 civilians as human shields during the clashes in the villages around the Magwe regions, according to residents. Following clashes since November 20, the Myanmar police reportedly set fire to several houses, causing an unknown number of civilians to be displaced. [Myanmar NOW 1] [Myanmar NOW 2]
In recent weeks, the Myanmar army has faced an increase in attacks by PDFs and other revolutionary forces. This has resulted in arise in casualties and displaced civilians. [Irrawaddy]
The Philippines: Commission on Elections extends cancellation deadline for presidential candidate
(lt) The Philippine Commission on Elections has extended the cancellation deadline for presidential candidate Bongbong Marcos. This provides the son of the late dictator, Ferdinand Marcos, five days to respond to public petitions calling for him to step down as a presidential candidate. However, the Commission on Elections has previously asserted that deadlines are ineligible for extension.
Marcos was due to respond to the first petition on November 16. The petition in question is based on concerns that he falsified his eligibility status, as he had been previously convicted for failing to pay tax returns. As the Omnibus Election Code prohibits those with criminal convictions from running for public office, civil leaders and citizens have petitioned for his disqualification. This is also due to his relation to dictator Ferdinand Marcos, who imposed 14-years of martial law, during which many human rights abuses occurred. [Rappler]
Further, Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has made a series of claims regarding Marcos’ presidential candidacy in the upcoming 2022 elections. In a speech made before the anti-insurgency task force in Mindanao, the President hinted that the leader hails from a political dynasty and has a strong following, though is a “weak leader.” Duterte’s accusations, including usage of cocaine, were later confirmed to be targeted at Marcos. The Philippine National Police has vowed to investigate the presidential candidate’s alleged drug use. [GMA Network] This follows from last month, during which electoral aspirants supported proposals for presidential candidates to undergo drug tests before the national elections. [CNN Philippines]
The Philippines: Politicians call for restoration of Negros Island Region
(lt) Politicians have endorsed the integration of Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, and Bacolod City into a singular administrative region, Negros Island Region. This has been proposed under the Negros Island Region Act, alternatively known as Senate Bill No. 2453, filed by Senate Majority Leader Juan Miguel Zubiri. Local politicians Governor Eugenio Jose Lacson and Vice Governor Jeffry Ferrer have expressed support towards the proposal, with presidential candidates Vice President Leni Robredo and Senator Ping Lacson endorsing the bill also.
Both Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental experience a “slower form of governance” due to their distance from regional centers. As Negros Occidental and Negros Oriental are located in Region VI and VII respectively, this has resulted in citizens lacking access to governmental services.
The establishment of Negros Island Region was passed in 2015 by then-President Benigno Aquino III under Executive Order 183. This was done to improve social and economic development in the region and facilitate access to public services throughout both areas. However, this was repealed under the administration of current President Rodrigo Duterte, who had opposed the integration of all regions from October 2016. [Rappler]
The Philippines: Vice presidential candidate, daughter of President Rodrigo Duterte, returns as chairperson of regional political party
(lt) Sara Duterte-Carpio has been reappointed as chairperson of the regional political party Hugpong ng Pagbabago, just a week after resigning to run for vice president. Duterte-Carpio now holds leadership in Hugpong ng Pagbabago as well as over the national party Lakas-CMD, which she is running for vice president under. By both parties’ Constitutions and their by-laws, Duterte-Carpio is permitted to hold both positions due to Hugpong ng Pagbabago’s status as a regional political party. [CNN Philippines] [Manila Bulletin]
The Philippines: Lawyers urge International Criminal Court to resume investigation on drug war
(lt) The National Union of People’s Lawyers (NUPL) has urged the International Criminal Court to resume its investigation into President Rodrigo Duterte’s war on drugs. This follows as the International Criminal Court temporarily halted its investigative activities after Eduardo Malaya, Philippine ambassador to the Netherlands, requested that the body refer to local authorities’ investigations into deaths occurring during anti-drug operations. Malaya referred to ongoing probes conducted by the National Bureau of Investigation, which found that administrative liability was a factor in at least 52 cases. [CNN Philippines 1]
In a statement, the NUPL condemned the International Criminal Court for approving the Philippine government’s requests to halt the investigation, urging that a full investigation into human rights violations under the Duterte regime occur. However, the Philippine government has repeatedly insisted that the International Criminal Court lacks jurisdiction due to its 2019 withdrawal from the Rome Statute. In response, the International Criminal Court asserted that it had jurisdiction over crimes committed by the Philippines during its time as a state party to the Rome Statute. [CNN Philippines 2]
The Philippines: United States announces sex-trafficking charges against longtime friend, spiritual counsellor of President Rodrigo Duterte
(lt) Prosecutors in the United States have announced charges related to sex-trafficking against Apollo Carreon Quiboloy, a pastor and spiritual advisor to Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte. A 74-page indictment details Quiboloy’s and two other defendants’ recruitment of females aged 12 to 25 as assistants. Also referred to as “pastorals,” the females were ordered to perform household chores and sexual services for the evangelist.
The evangelist and self-proclaimed “Appointed Son of God” is well-loved by many Filipinos. As a church leader and acquaintance of the President, he plays a key role in influencing the Philippine elections. [Rappler]
The Philippines: Muslim extremists surrender in Basilan
(lt) Members of the Abu Sayyaf Group surrendered to military forces in Basilan, on November 18. The three members, accompanied by a supporter, bring the total number of surrendered extremists to 32. They will receive livelihood assistance through the Program Against Violent Extremism. [Manila Times]
The Philippines: Police Regional Office seeks to dismantle armed groups
(lt) The Police Regional Office of Davao City has launched the Police Security and Protection Task Force, a task force aimed at suppressing activities conducted by private armed groups. The task force consists of various units of the Philippine National Police, and has been mandated to monitor hit-and-run services in the lead-up to the May 2022 national elections. This follows from the killing of Sherwin Uy, son of Congressman Roland Uy, who was killed in electoral poll-related violence on 11 November 2021. [Benar News] [Manila Times]
Thailand: Activist group’s amendment bill dismissed in first reading
(kk) A joint sitting of Parliament rejected a constitutional amendment bill in the first reading with 473 to 206 votes against the amendment bill. The campaign by civil society group Re-solution is named “Dismantling the Prayuth Regime” and was backed by 135,000 eligible voters. [Nikkei Asia]
The bill proposes to abolish the Senate, and to change the method of appointing judges to the Constitutional Court and members of other institutions. It also seeks to revoke the 20-year National Strategy Plan — a strategic development framework to turn Thailand into a developed country by 2037 — and to repeal the provisions that legalize announcements and orders of the now-defunct executive body of the military junta, the National Council for Peace and Order. In addition, the charter amendment bill proposes to set up panels of inspector generals to monitor the Armed Forces, the Court of Justice, and other agencies. [See AiR No. 27, July/2021, 1]
On November 17, Parit Wacharasindhu – a former member of the Democrat Party who is one of the bill’s proponents – told the House that the current constitution provides mechanisms for Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-O-Cha to retain his power through the control of the Senate and independent agencies. Parit added that the current charter was designed by the military government under the National Council for Peace and Order (NCPO), who staged a coup in 2014, without considering the people’s opinion. [The Standard, in Thai] Pro-government legislators argued that the 2017 Constitution was endorsed in a referendum and that the coup in 2014 was necessary considering the political crisis at that time. [Reuters]
Despite the bill being rejected, Piyabutr Saengkanokkul – secretary-general of the Progressive Movement – urged supporters of the bill to continue the campaign to amend the current constitution. Move Forward leader Pita Limjaroenrat promised to put the charter amendment bill on the party’s program in the next election [Bangkok Post 1]
According to the 2017 Constitution, the constitutional amendment bills must secure a majority in both Houses, as well as getting the support of at least of one-third, or 84, of the 250 Senators to be passed. Meanwhile, the draft only received three votes in support from the upper House, which was not an unexpected outcome, considering 250 senators are appointed by the former military junta. [Bangkok Post 2]
Since 2019, Thailand has seen as many as 21 bills proposed to the parliament seeking to amend the constitution. Yet, only one has been approved in September 2021, proposing a return of the two-ballot system - a system that is believed to benefit large and established parties including the ruling Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) and the main opposition Pheu Thai Party. The amendment bill also increases the number of constituency MPs from 350 to 400 and decrease the number of party-list MPs from 150 to 100. The bill was published in the Royal Gazette on November 21; hence, the two-ballot system will be effective in the next election. [See AiR No. 37, September/2021, 2] [Bangkok Post 3] To implement the charter change, two laws will be amended. The Election Commission is in charge of preparing the drafts, expected to be completed by next month or January. Proposal bills for these laws can also be submitted by MPs, which Pheu Thai already announced to do. [Bangkok Post 4]
Thailand: Constitutional Court rules on marriage equality
(kk) The Constitutional Court has ruled that the current Thai marriage law does not violate the Constitution. However, the court stated that the government “should draft laws that guarantee the rights for gender diverse people,” [Bloomberg]
In 2019, an LGBTQ couple, along with the Foundation for Sexual Orientation and Gender Identity Rights and Justice (For-SOGI), had filed a petition with the Constitutional Court, asking the court to rule whether Section 1448 of the Thai Civil and Commercial Code, which defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman, violates the Constitution. Since then, the court has delayed the ruling several times.
Following the court’s decision, Deputy Prime Minister Wissanu Krea-ngam assured that the government will expedite the revision of the Civil Partnership Bill that would allow same-sex unions legal rights largely similar to married couples. He added the draft bill, which was approved by the cabinet in 2020, is currently under review due to issues voiced by activists because the government creates a separate bill for same-sex marriage rather than amending the civil code. The Civil Partnership Bill has been criticized for not granting LGBTQ couples the same rights as heterosexual couples. [Bangkok Post] [See AiR No. 28, July/2020, 2]
Tunyawaj Kamolwongwat, a Move Forward Party MP, insisted that the party will continue its plan to amend Section 1448 to achieve equality with respect to marriage.
In June 2020, Move Forward Party (MFP) MPs submitted a bill proposing amendments to the Civil and Commercial Code. The bill proposed for the terminology used in the law to be changed to use “spouses” instead of “husband” and “wife” and “person” instead of “man” and “woman”, which would ensure LGBTQ couples the same rights as heterosexual couples. [See AiR No. 40, October/2021, 1]
Thailand: Protest leader detained over mocking Thai King
(kk) Panusaya “Rung” Sithijirawattanakul, a prominent protest leader, was detained after being denied bail on additional lèse-majesté charges. The court stated that the activist has repeatedly committed similar offenses after she was indicted in June this year, adding she also violated her bail conditions for other cases.
Panusaya was charged with royal defamation for mocking the king by wearing a crop top, referring to photos showing the king dressed in crop top released by European tabloids, to protest the use of royal defamation law in December 2020. She and other activists also have sarcastic messages written on their body which the prosecutors deemed as damaging to the king’s reputation. [Bangkok Post] [Prachatai English]
In addition, the Criminal Court has revoked her bail in a lèse-majesté case with respect to the protest on September 19. [Thai PBS World] [See AiR No. 38, September/2021]
Last week, the court has ruled that Panusaya and other three activists’ calls for monarchy reform is an attempt to abolish the institution amounting to treason, without rendering a sentence. [See AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3]
Thailand: Coalition party to elect new personnel
(nd) In an effort to prepare for the next general election, Action Coalition for Thailand Party (ACT) elected new personnel during their annual general assembly. ACT is one of the parties in the current ruling coalition. The Minister of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, Anek Laothamatas was elected party leader, Duangrit Benjathikul Chairungruang was re-elected as the party secretary-general, Juthathat Laothamatas appointed treasurer and Danuch Tantherdthit registrar. Pitcharinruja Chantharonanon, Yodkwan Chumawara and Pirasut Chantranuwat were elected as party executives.
Suthep Thaugsuban, a former deputy prime minister and former leader of the defunct People's Democratic Reform Committee protest movement, who founded the ACT, was also present at the assembly. [Bangkok Post]
Thailand: UN to criticize deportation of Cambodian refugees
(nd) The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) criticized Thailand for deporting three Cambodian refugees within two weeks.
A politician of the now dissolved Cambodian opposition party on district level and critic of Hun Sen, who fled Cambodia four years ago, was arrested last week and sent to Cambodia, where she was incarcerated immediately. The extradition came after two other activists with links to the dissolved Cambodia National Rescue Party (CNRP), were deported from Thailand to face, as Human Rights Watch put it, "politically motivated charges.”
UNHCR said the action violates the principle of non-refoulement, which forbids countries from deporting people to places where their lives or freedom are in danger. UNHCR unsuccessfully intervened in all three cases, calling it “open season now on Cambodian refugees."
Cambodian President Hun Sen has been in power for 36 years and significantly broadened his grip on it upon the dissolution of CNRP by the Supreme Court in 2017, enabling him to win all seats in the subsequent general election. Since then, he has cracked down on the opposition and civil society further. Ahead of its assuming the ASEAN chair next year, 27 opposition activists were released last week, including popular trade union leader Rong Chhun. [See also AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3] [Bangkok Post]
Thailand: Call to ban human rights watchdog
(nd) Following the call of an assistant minister at the Prime Minister's Office to ban human rights group Amnesty International (AI) from Thailand, the move was endorsed by former red-shirt leader Anon Saennan. Amnesty International was vocal in its criticism on the government's treatment of political protesters, while — according to the call — ignoring protesters' lack of respect for the monarchy.
Supporters have announced to collect signatures and rally in front of Government House on November 25. In a letter to Prime Minister Prayut Chan-o-cha, the group led by Noppadol Prompasit demanded an investigation into AI’s operations in Thailand, considering it a threat to national security. The letter cites the November 10 ruling by the Constitutional Court, which deemed that the pro-democracy protesters’ call for a reform of the monarchy amount to an attempt to overthrow the constitutional monarchy. [See also AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3]
Following the ruling, AI Thailand announced a campaign to gather support with people and organizations all over the world, calling to cease legal action against the protest organizers currently in prison, which the call argues amounted an interference in internal affairs and calling people against the monarchy. [Bangkok Post 1] [Bangkok Post 2]
Vietnam to repatriate detained fishermen
(bs) Indonesian authorities repatriated 166 fishermen to Vietnam after holding them in custody for alleged illegal fishing.
COVID-19 restrictions impeded Vietnam to repatriate its citizens for over two months. The detainees complained about the poor living conditions in Indonesian detention centers. Since the beginning of 2021, Indonesia confiscated 25 Vietnamese-flagged boats. Vietnam urged Indonesia to engage in bilateral talks and draft an agreement to define exclusive economic zones in the South China Sea, including the highly disputed area of North Natuna Sea claimed by Indonesia. [Radio Free Asia]
Vietnamese victims of human trafficking return to Vietnam
(bs) Fourteen Vietnamese citizens return to Vietnam after being trafficked to Myanmar. [Vietnam Plus]
Since the beginning of the pandemic, human trafficking saw a rapid growth in the country due to the sudden loss of jobs and financial stability. The victims are mainly trafficked to neighboring China and Myanmar, and according to a Hanoi-based child rescue organization, “girls and women from ethnic minorities” are those facing the highest risk of becoming victims of human trafficking. [Info Migrants]
Vietnam, Japan, UNICEF joint agreement on development of child resilience to natural disasters
(bs) Vietnam has committed to a $5.7 million project on “enhancing resilience to disaster risks and climate change for children,” in agreement with the Embassy of Japan and UNICEF Vietnam.
The project aims to help 27,000 Vietnamese children develop resilience to climate change and natural disasters through education and healthcare by 2026 for the UNICEF Children’s Climate Change Risk Index considers children and young adults as highly affected by climate change. The plan drafted by the parties also includes constructions to reduce riverbank erosion and improvements of the local hydraulic systems. [Vietnam Times]
International Relations, Geopolitics and Security in Asia
China-US relations: Agreement on easing visa restrictions for journalists
(pm) China and the US signed an agreement to relax visa restrictions for journalists. Under the agreement the validity of journalists' visas will be extended to one year from three months. Visas will be eligible for multiple entries, allowing reporters to travel internationally. [CNN]
The agreement comes on the virtual meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Joe Biden on Tuesday, November 16, during which both leaders agreed to keep lines of communication open to cool down tensions [see AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3].
Limits on the work of journalists and media workers have added to already tensions between the two countries when in October last year the Trump administration – among other changes – limited the number of visas issued to Chinese state media workers and required those remaining to register as foreign agents and comply with rules and regulations that apply to diplomatic missions and which are stricter than those normally applying to journalists. China responded with expelling journalists working for US outlets and severely restricting conditions for those continuing to work in the country [see AiR No. 43, October/2020, 4].
China signs more than $1 billion in deals at China-LAC business summit amid warnings of advisory panel against Beijing’s growing influence in US backyards
(dql/pm) China has concluded 18 cooperation agreements worth nearly $1.1 billion during last week’s China-Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) Business Summit.
China is the second-largest trading partner of the LAC region to which 33 countries and 15 dependencies and other territories belong. For the past three consecutive years, annual bilateral trade volume has been higher than $300 billion. Over 2,700 China-funded enterprises are operating in the region, making it the second-largest destination for the country’s outbound investment. [CGTN] [Xinhua].
The agreements come just as on November 17, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission, the US government’s premier advisory panel, released its annual report to the Congress. Besides providing recommendations for responding to China’s challenges in a wide range of sectors, including maintaining US nuclear superiority, strengthening export controls, reducing supply-chain vulnerabilities, as was well expanding and better coordinating entity lists and improves the policing of imports, the report explicitly highlights the growing influence of China in Latin America and the Caribbean over the past decade and warns that “China’s expanding control over entire supply chains in the region may also harm U.S. competitiveness and threaten U.S. access to critical inputs for emerging technologies.” [US-China Economic and Security Review Commission].
China-Peru relations: Parliament speakers vow to deepen bilateral ties
(pm) China’s Chairman of the National People’s Congress Standing Committee Li Zhanshu met virtually with President of the Peruvian Congress Maria del Carmen Alva on November 17 to discuss various issues of bilateral ties, including the improvement of economic and trade cooperation as well as mutual political support. Both sides confirmed readiness to accelerate talks on upgrading free trade agreements, to deepen investment cooperation in agriculture, infrastructure, and the digital economy, and strengthen anti-COVID-19 cooperation. [Xinhua].
China-Russia relations: Energy cooperation to be deepened
(dql/pm) On Wednesday, November 17, China and Russia held the 18th meeting of the Russian-Chinese Intergovernmental Commission on Energy Cooperation to discuss pressing issues of cooperation in the fuel and energy sector and to exchange proposals to expand it, including long-term contracts to jointly develop coal deposits in Russia. Both sides also agreed to maintain steady operations of cross-border power transmission lines and to develop power engineering. They also supported further cooperation in promoting RES, the hydroelectric power industry and hydrogen energy. They discussed separately the development of China’s nuclear industry with the use of Russian technology, the continued construction of the Tianwan Nuclear Power Plant and the Xudabao Nuclear Power Plant, a fast neutron demonstration reactor. [The Russian Government] [Xinhua] [ABS-CBN News]
The outcomes of the meeting reflect an increasingly close energy alliance with Russia as part of a broader deepening of ties between the two neighbours as they both are facing growing pressure from the West.
For a critical assessment of Russia’s over-reliance on Beijing in the field gas export, see Alexander Gabuev in [Financial Times].
Meanwhile, an aircraft formation composed of two Chinese H-6K bombers and two Russia Tu-95 MC planes conducted a joint air patrol over the Sea of Japan and the East China Sea in the Western Pacific. It was the third aerial patrol jointly held by Chinese and Russian militaries [NDTV].
China-ASEAN summit: Beijing not to seek hegemony, Xi Jinping says amid new findings about Chinese military presence in the South China Sea
(dql/pm) At the virtual ASEAN-China summit, held on Monday, November 22 to commemorate the 30th anniversary of bilateral relations between China and the Southeast Asian bloc, Chinese President Xi Jinping reassured that China would neither “bully” its neighbors nor seek hegemony in the region, pledging to work with ASEAN to eliminate “interference”. [CGTN]
Xi’s reassurance follows on the hills of Philippine accusation of Chines coastguard vessels blocking two Philippine supply boats in the South China Sea and of using water cannons against them. [CNN]
Xi’s statement comes also shortly after Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies released a new report on China’s military presence in the South China Sea according to which some 300 Chinese maritime militia vessels operate in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea on any given day, demonstrating Beijing’s assertiveness in claiming sovereignty in the disputed waters.
Composed mostly of commercial fishing vessels operating in tandem with Chinese law enforcement and military to achieve political objectives, the militia had expanded and been involved in aggressive operations since 2000, with a shift having occurred in 2016 when artificial island outposts had been completed and militia boats had been deployed to the Spratlys in precedented great numbers and on a more constant basis. [South China Morning Post] [Center for Strategic and International Studies].
China-Israel relations: Xi Jinping and Isaac Herzog agree on deepening bilateral cooperation on phone
(dql/pm) Ahead of the 30th anniversary of the establishment of diplomatic ties between China and Israel in January, on Wednesday, November 17, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Israeli counterpart Isaac Herzog held a telephone conversation, the first ever presidential phone talk between the two countries during which Iran’s nuclear program, the Abraham Accords and the bilateral ties between both countries were discussed.
Both leaders agreed to work for greater Israeli-Chinese collaboration in the future, stressing especially the areas of culture, economy, and tourism, and reaffirming their commitment to the China-Israel comprehensive innovation partnership, established in 2017 between Xi and then Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to boost innovation cooperation between the two countries. [The Times of Israel] [Xinhua]
China-Germany relations: Decoupling would be wrong, Chancellor Merkel says
(dql/pm) Amid strained China-EU relations over accusations of forced labor and human rights violations in Xinjiang and Hongkong, outgoing German Chancellor Angela Merkel in an interview voiced opposition to decoupling from China warning that such a move would damage Germany. At the same she admitted that Germany needed to reconsider some of its partnerships, as it was initially “rather too naive in our approach to some cooperation partnerships,” referring especially to standards of protecting critical infrastructure and Germany’s new IT security law which gives the government more power to vet producers of equipment for next-generation telecommunications networks, like China’s Huawei.
Under Merkel’s 16-year long chancellorship China has become Germany’s biggest trade partner in 2016. However, she has always been facing criticism that Germany under her tenure has become too reliant on China, especially on the issue of human rights violations in China. [DW] [South China Morning Post]
Meanwhile, acting German Health Minister Jens Spahn called for a more open discussion on how to reduce its overreliance on China in many areas, referring to experiences made in the Covid-19 pandemic. He called on Germany and the European Union to diversify trade towards other countries and regions to reduce overreliance on Beijing. [Reuters]
Turkmenistan China’s biggest natural gas provider
(dql/pm) According to data of China’s customs authorities, Turkmenistan has been China's biggest gas supplier so far in this, with 19.79 million tons of gas delivered for $5.38 billion. It is followed by Russia, Kazakhstan (3.73 million tons/$865.01 million), Uzbekistan (2.57 million tons/$601.27 million). [AKI Press]
Meanwhile, China and Turkmenistan on Monday, November 22, held the fifth meeting of Turkmenistan-China Cooperation Committee during which both sides agreed to deepen political and diplomatic ties and to strengthen cooperation in a wide range of fields, including energy, agriculture, transportation, communications, finance, aerospace, and equipment manufacturing as well as pandemic response. [Xinhua]
Japan and China struggle to see eye to eye on Senkaku-islands, Taiwan and human rights
(la) Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi discussed the issues of the disputed Senkaku Islands, the Taiwan Strait and human rights during a series of telephone calls with his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi. Despite agreeing on the importance of stabilizing Sino-Japanese relations, on all three topics, the two foreign ministers remained far apart.
Hayashi expressed his discontent and concerns over multiple intrusions by Chinese ships into the waters surrounding the Japanese-administered islands. These uninhabited islands, which China refers to as “Diaoyu”, have been topic of a territorial dispute between the two countries since the late 20th century.
Hayashi also mentioned Taiwan as a point of concern – emphasizing the importance of peace and stability in the Strait, to which Wang warned Japan to “not cross the red line” on Taiwan.
In addition to the situation in the East and South China seas, Hayashi expressed grave concerns over human rights issues in the Chinese Xinjiang region and Hong Kong.
While Wang’s official reply has not been disclosed, the Chinese top diplomat expressed China’s unchanged perspective on these matters, according to Hayashi’s report. Beijing has typically denied human rights violations in Hong Kong and Xinjiang, stating that countries making these accusations are interfering in China’s domestic affairs. [The Japan Times][The Mainichi]
Japan to deepen trade ties with US and Europe
(ec/pm) Japanese Foreign Minister Yoshimasa Hayashi and Japanese Economy, Trade and Industry Minister Koichi Hagiuda have both held their first meetings with United States Trade Representative Katherine Tai on Wednesday, November 17, in which both agreed to a new initiative for regular trade meetings to tackle “market-distorting practices,” including industrial subsidies and overproduction, an apparent reference to China. Hagiuda and Raimondo also agreed to establish a Japan-US commercial and industrial partnership (JUCIP), aimed at boosting resiliency of supply chains for semiconductors, 5G and other vital industry segments.
Similarly, in a joint statement the trade ministers of Japan, the US, and the European Union agreed to revitalize trade ties in the face of international challenges in the wake of “non-market policies and practices of third countries,” again a thinly veiled address to China. [The Mainichi] [South China Morning Post] [European Commission]
Hagiuda also met earlier with US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, wherein both agreed to negotiate over tariffs on Japanese steel and aluminium exports to the United States put in place by the Trump administration. The United States has resumed duty free steel and aluminium imports from the European Union, and there are concerns from the Japanese steel industry that their US exports will become uncompetitive. [Kyodo News 1] [See AiR No. 45, November/2021, 2]
In a separate statement made during her visit in Malaysia in November 18, Raimondo confirmed that the US would not join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership trade pact for now, but will instead seek a separate “proper economic framework” with its allies.
In September, China applied to join an Asia-Pacific trade pact which was once pushed by the former US President Barack Obama as a way to solidify US trade interest in the region. In 2017, the US under the Trump administration withdrew from the pact. [The Straits Times] [Xinhua] [AiR No. 38, September/2021, 3]
European Council President Charles Michel, meanwhile, is looking to meet with Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Monday, November 29, with an eye to encourage trade in industrial products and promote peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific area.
This visit is the latest manifestation of Europe’s growing concerns over the disruptive effects of China’s moves in the region. [Kyodo News 2] [See AiR No. 45, November/2021, 2]
Japan: UN Team to Review Fukushima Water Release Plans
(ec) Six experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) arrived in Japan on Monday, November 15, to assess plans and procedures for the release of treated radioactive water from Fukushima nuclear plant into the ocean. The Japanese government requested the IAEA assist it in meeting international safety standards, with another team of eleven expected in December. After the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident, the water used to cool the reactor cores has been stored onsite in tanks expected fill up before the end of 2022. The Japanese government has stated that it cannot decommission the Fukushima Daiichi complex before the water has been removed, and that ocean dumping is the safest available option. [Japan Today]
Japan’s method of water treatment can remove all radioactive materials from the water except from Tritium. Tritium radiation is not powerful enough to break through human skin but can increase the risk of cancer if ingested. Advice given to the Japanese government suggests that, if the wastewater is released over an extended period of several decades, the environmental and human impact will be negligible. [ABC News]
Local farmers and the Japanese fishing industry both oppose wastewater discharge as a threat to consumer confidence, which has been sluggishly recovering since the Fukushima Daiichi nuclear accident. The plan has also put further strain on Japan’s relations with China and South Korea, who protest that they are being denied input into a decision that could affect the wellbeing of their citizens. The Chinese Foreign Ministry has released numerous statements condemning the plan, whilst South Korea's Vice Foreign Minister Choi Jong-moon summoned Japanese Ambassador Koichi Aiboshi to lodge protests, with South Korean President Moon Jae-in suggesting that to the country could refer Japan’s move to the International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea and file for an injunction. [Al Jazeera] [Deutsche Well 01] [The Asahi Shimbun 01] [The Asahi Shimbun 02] [The Japan Times]
For additional perspective, consider reading Tim Schauenberg’s article on the development of the Japanese government’s wastewater dumping plan and the controversy around the proposed method of disposal. [Deutsche Well 02]
Japan and Philippines consider security talks
(ec) The Japanese Foreign Ministry has confirmed that, during a phone call on Wednesday, November 17, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte agreed to consider two-plus-two security talks, as part of the two nations’ growing co-operation in upholding the established order in the Indo-Pacific area. Two-plus-two talks is short-hand for dialogue between the Defense and Foreign Affairs Ministries of two nations; the Philippines would be the ninth nation to hold two-plus-two talks, after the United States, Australia, Britain, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, and Russia. [Kyodo News]
Japan condemns Russian anti-satellite test
(ec) The Japanese Foreign Ministry released a statement on Thursday, November 18, condemning a test by Russia of an anti-satellite missile as a threat to the continued peace and stability of outer space, in the forms of both the anti-satellite missile itself and the debris created by the test in violation of the Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, as per United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (COPUOS), of which Russia is a member of. [Space News]
The test was conducted shortly Defence Minister Nobuo Kishi announced that the Japanese Air Self-Defense will seek to establish a second space operations unit within the 2022 fiscal year to watch for electromagnetic wave interference, the first space operations unit having been established in May 2020 to watch for asteroids and debris threatening satellites. It is also the latest in a series of missile tests conducted throughout the year, with North Korea and South Korea both testing ballistic missiles, China testing its first hypersonic missile, and India testing a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile. [See AiR No. 44, November/2021, 1] [See AiR No. 45, November/2021, 2] [See AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3]
South Korean presidential candidate calls for improvement of relations with China
(aml) Yoon Seok-youl vowed to work on improving ties between Korea and China if elected, after he met with the Chinese ambassador in South Korea on Friday, November 19. The People Power Party candidate and spoke with Chinese envoy Xing Haiming about the 5,000 years of history between the countries, and said he expected them to become even closer as their 30th anniversary of diplomatic relations is next year. Xing emphasized their trade volume, of over $340 billion, is more than the total of the trade between Korea and US, Japan, and Europe. He also stressed that “China and Korea share Confucian ideals” and are “very close”. Eight days earlier Xing met with Yoon’s competitor Lee Jae-myung, candidate of the ruling Democratic Party, as part of his efforts to promote the importance of bilateral relations.
The meeting took place after Korea struggled with a urea shortage caused by export restrictions put in place by China, in an effort to address the country’s power crisis which was prompted by a coal shortage. Korea relies heavily on the fluid which is used for diesel vehicles. Xing confirmed China would do its best to “resolve this problem through dialogue and communication”. [The Korea Times 1] [The Korea Herald 1]
South Korea: President Moon calls for progress on East Asia railway bloc
(aml) South Korean President Moon Jae-in expressed his wish to expand joint railways projects at the opening of the 3rd International Forum for Northern Economic Cooperation on Thursday, November 18. The President hopes to connect the railways of South and North Korea, China, Japan, Russia, and Mongolia.
President Moon pledged to enlarge investments to improve cooperation in health, digital technologies, and the environment. He also plans to double the health-related development assistance for northern countries, and helpthem respond to climate change. [The Korea Times]
The Committee for Northern Economic Cooperation was set up in 2017 by President Moon, in line with his Northern Policy to improve economic and other cooperation between South Korea and its Northern neighbors, including Russia and Mongolia. An essential part is the promotion of economic cooperation with North Korea, as part of Moon’s efforts to foster denuclearization and peace on the peninsula.
South Korea seeks talks with US on steel tariff revision
(aml) Head of the trade negotiations division, Yeo Han-Koo, met with US Trade Representative Katherine Tai on Friday, to discuss ways to strengthen their countries’ ties on Friday, November 19.
Yeo, of the Minstry of Trade, Industry and Energy, reportedly requested revision talks of Section 232 of the Korea-US free trade agreement, which regulates the tariffs of steel and aluminum import, since the tariffs have been affecting local steel exporters.
The two also discussed ways to collaborate in tackling the semiconductor shortage, a few days after Korean semiconductor companies who operate plants in the US submitted second-level operational data to the US commerce department. This has led to assumptions that South Korea will support the Biden administration’s initiative to review technology supply chains.
The meeting took place during the Sixth Korea-US free trade agreement joint committee meeting in Seoul, which aimed to discuss the implementation of the agreement as well as other pending issues. During the meeting, both sides vowed to strengthen their strategic partnership in trade issues such as supply chains, technology, and digital and climate-related trade policies. [The Korea Times]
South Korea-Japan relations tense over Japan’s claim of Dokdo islets
(aml) South Korea-Japan tensions over disputed islands have increased after Japan once again reiterated its territorial claims over the South Korean easternmost islets of Dokdo. After a trilateral vice-ministerial meeting with South Korean vice Foreign Minister Choi Hong-kun, US Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and Japan’s vice Foreign Minister Takeo Mori, South Korea’s and Japan’s representatives did not attend the joint press conference. The meeting focused on peace efforts and denuclearization on the Korean peninsula and the idea offormally ending the Korean War.
Japan’s territorial claim over the islets, which have been in effective control of South Korea since its liberation from Japan’s colonial rule from 1910-1945, is one of the key issues between the two countries. [The Korea Times] [The Korea Herald] [Nikkei Asia]
South Korea, UAE negotiate $3.5 billion missile deal
(aml) The United Arab Emirates announced on Tuesday that they have reached the final stages in negotiating a $3.5 billion deal to buy mid-range missiles from South Korea.
The country will be the first one overseas to buy the Cheongung series, which was deployed in 2015 to hit targets flying up to 15 km high. A complete battery consists of a transporter launcher carrying eight missiles with a 40km flight range, a radar, and a command vehicle. The series is believed to be able to withstand extreme weather conditions, and reportedly even outperforms the US-made Patriot system since it aims quicker at a second target after the initial fire.
According to the Korean Defense Acquisition Program Administration (DAPA) the last details of the deal need to still be negotiated, but if successful it will become the single most lucrative weapon’s export in the history of South Korea’s defense industry, the second largest being a 1 trillion won submarine export to Indonesia. [The Korea Times ] [The Korea Herald]
Chinese and Russian warplanes in South Korea’s air defense identification zone
(dql) South Korea’s military has confirmed that it scrambled fighter jets on Friday, November 19, after two Chinese and seven Russian warplanes entered the country’s air defense identification zone during what China, for its part, described as a routine exercise. [DW]
Taiwan scores high in Transparency International’s 2021 Government Defence Anti-Corruption Index
(dql) According to Transparency International, Taiwan ranks highest among 21 Asian countries in its 2021 Government Defence Anti-Corruption Index (GDI) which “assesses the existence, effectiveness and enforcement of institutional and informal controls to manage the risk of corruption in defence and security institutions.”
It is ranked sixth among 86 countries assessed and belongs to a group of eight countries (Belgium, Germany, Latvia, Netherlands, Norway, Switzerland, Taiwan, United Kingdom) ranked in “Band B: Low Risk”.
Lowest ranked Asian countries in “Band F: Very Critical” include Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Myanmar, Oman, Qatar and Saudi Arabia.
At the top of the index is New Zealand, the only one country in “Band 1: Very Low Risk”. [TI]
Joe Biden clarifies use of word “independent” for Taiwan
(dql) US President Joe Biden on Tuesday, Nov 16, clarified his use of the word “independent” in a statement referring to Taiwan, confirming that the US position on Chinese sovereignty remains unchanged and saying that the US is “not encouraging independence” and “not going to change our [One-China] policy at all.”
Biden’s statement, made to reporters during a promotional event for the recently signed infrastructure law, reads: "It's independent. It makes its own decisions."
It came the day after his virtual summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping and is the latest in a sting of remarks that have been a source of confusion about the US positions towards Taiwan. [CNN]
In latest development, the Arleigh Burke-class guided-missile destroyer USS Milius (DDG 69) sailed through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday, November 23. It was tenth time an American warship transited through the narrow waterway separating Taiwan and China under US President Joe Biden took office.
US lawmakers urge Biden to support Tawain’s bid to become Interpol member
(dql) US lawmakers continue to express support for Taiwan efforts to participate in international organizations and agencies, with more than 70 Congresspersons submitting a letter to US President Joe Biden calling on him to support Taiwan’s bid to join the International Criminal Police Organization (Interpol) and attend as an observer in this year’s General Assembly (GA) meeting scheduled for this week.
In 1961 Taiwan joined Interpol, but had to pull out when China joined the organization in 1984. Since then, it has denied Taiwan the right to participate, citing a resolution accepting China as a member that was passed at the GA in the same year. [Focus Taiwan]
Taiwan-Lithuania relations: New Taiwanese de-facto embassy opened in Vilnius
(dql/pm) Taiwan’s Foreign Ministry announced that the “Taiwan Representative Office in Lithuania”, Taiwan’s de facto embassy, has been officially opened in Vilnius on Thursday, November 18. It is the island’s first new diplomatic outpost in Europe in nearly two decades.
The use of the term “Taiwan” marks a significant elevation of the status of the office as other offices in Europe and across the world are usually called “Taipei Economic and Cultural Representative Office (TECRO)” to indicate that no formal diplomatic ties existed the between the hosting country and Taiwan.
In the run up to the opening, China has exerted diplomatic pressure on Lithuania after the latter revealed in July its agreement to a representative office using “Taiwan”. Beijing withdrew its ambassador to Lithuania and demanded that Vilnius do the same, which it eventually did. [Aljazeera]
In an immediate response, China announced that it has officially downgraded its diplomatic ties with the Baltic to the level of charge d’affaires. [Euronews]
Taiwan and CABEI to establish fund in support of development projects in the Central America
(dql) Taiwan and the Central American Bank for Economic Integration (CABEI) concluded an agreement under which the former will support the CABEI with US$1 million annually over the next five years. The money will be allocated for technical assistance, training and advisory services.
CABEI was founded in 1960 as an international multilateral development financial institution that offers resources to projects aimed as strengthening regional development, reducing poverty and inequality, and boosting regional integration. In 1992 Taiwan became a non-regional member country of CABEI.
The founding countries included Guatemala, El Salvador, Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Among these, Guatemala, Honduras and Nicaragua have diplomatic ties with Taiwan. [Focus Taiwan]
Mongolia-US relations: Review of joint child protection cooperation
(dql) US government officials and their Mongolian counterparts as well as civil society organizations met virtually on November 19 for a bilateral dialogue to review and evaluate a US-Mongolia Child Protection Compact (CPC) Partnership, with both sides acknowledging “significant achievements”.
The Partnership was signed in April 2020 and aims to support Mongolia in fulfilling its pledge to make fighting human trafficking a higher priority and to “expand its support for shelters for trafficking victims, to enhance victim-centered investigations and prosecutions; and to establish a Multidisciplinary Task Force to improve interagency coordination on victim identification, protection, and the investigation and prosecution of child trafficking crimes.” [US Embassy, Mongolia]
Russia starts delivery of S-400 missile system to India, despite US sanctions risk
(rs/lm) Russia has started delivering the first regiment of its S-400 surface-to-air missile to India, news agencies reported on November 14 citing the head of the Russian military cooperation agency. [Reuters]
India placed a $5.3 billion order for five units of the S-400 in 2018 and paid the first tranche of $800 million a year later.
Shortly before the deal was formalized, the United Sates sanctioned China for purchase of the air defense system from Russia under a federal law – the Countering America's Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) – that punishes countries for making major arms deals with Moscow, the world’s second-largest arms exporter [see AiR No. 52, December/2020, 5].
When Turkey received the first deliveries of the S-400 in July 2019, Washington removed the NATO ally from its F-35 stealth fighter program over security concerns. The Russian missile system is, not surprisingly, completely incompatible with NATO-wide air defense capabilities, leaving the alliance’s southeastern flank potentially vulnerable.
Prime Minister Modi met with a high-power U.S. Congressional delegation on November 13. The visit came after Republican US senators had filed legislation to exempt India from sanctions for purchasing the S-400 missile system, saying such a move would throw cold water on the important relationship [see AiR No. 44, November/2021, 1]. [The Hindu]
But despite the threats of sanctions, the Modi administration appears to have made the decision with the system. It sees it as critical at a time when it is locked in a stand-off with the China’s People’s Liberation Army at numerous points along the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayan heights of Ladakh. Moreover, Pakistan’s nuclear and ballistic-missile programs, fostered by China, are increasingly menacing.
But regardless of what happens, experts believe that the real challenge for the Washington is figuring out how to avoid having to deal with this repeatedly: In 2023, India will receive the first two of four new frigates from Russia, and in 2025, will begin leasing its third nuclear-powered submarine – dubbed Chakra III – from Moscow, all major deals already sealed. [AiR No. 35, August/2021, 5].
What is more, India’s outgoing ambassador to Russia told a Russian news agency earlier this month that orders for additional Sukhoi Su-30MKI and MiG-29 fighter jets, in addition to 400 more T-90 main battle tanks are in the works. [The Hindu]
International Monetary Fund to revive $6 billion Pakistan funding program
(lm) The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has agreed to revive a $6 billion bailout package for Pakistan after more than a month of discussions, providing a major relief to the country’s struggling economy though the Khan administration will need to push through with key reforms. [The Straits Times]
Islamabad entered the Extended Fund Facility (EFF) funding program with the IMF in 2019. However, after the Washington-based lender had released a $500 million tranche in March – the third loan tranche under the EEF– talks in June to release further funds ended inconclusive [see AiR No. 24, June/2021, 3].
Both sides have now reached a staff-level agreement on policies and reforms needed to complete the sixth loan review, the IMF said in a statement published on November 22. The agreement involves the implementation of prior actions, notably on fiscal and institutional reforms, before final approval is given by the IMF’s Executive Board. [International Monetary Fund]
The resumption of the IMF bailout would make available 750 million in IMF special drawing rights, or around $1 billion, bringing total disbursements so far to about $3 billion. In turn, Pakistan will ensure legislation is passed that gives the government less influence over the central bank and raise taxes before the final approval from the IMF [see AiR No. 44, November/2021, 1], according to the country’s finance adviser, Shaukat Tarin. [Bloomberg]
The agreement comes as the South Asian nation grapples with stubborn inflation, due in part to pent-up demand, high global commodity prices and rising imports. Ahead of the IMF announcement, Pakistan’s central bank warned that a higher-than-expected primary deficit would likely worsen the inflation outlook and undermine economic recovery, and raised its key interest rate by more than expected.
India, Russia to hold maiden 2+2 dialogue in early December
(rs/lm) The first edition of India-Russia two-plus-two talks is likely to be held on the sidelines of the annual summit between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi on December 6. [Business Standard] [The Hindu]
India and Russia define their ties as a “strong strategic partnership”, and earlier in April had agreed to establish a two-plus-two meeting between the two nations’ foreign and defense ministers to further deepen bilateral cooperation [see AiR No. 18, May/2021, 1]. The format is particularly significant, given that New Delhi conducts joint foreign and defense ministerial meetings only with member states of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (Quad), a multilateral grouping joining Australia, India, Japan, and the United States.
India’s External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar and Defence Minister Rajnath Singh were supposed to travel to Moscow in the last week of November. But according to reports, the plan is being amended due to the Winter session of India’s parliament, which runs from November 29 until December 23.
During the upcoming talks, both countries are expecting to conclude a Reciprocal Exchange of Logistics Agreement (RELOS), which will simplify interoperability and enable support to military platforms like warships and aircraft, as well as a Navy-to-Navy cooperation Memorandum of Understanding (MoU). There is also a proposal to establish a separate Joint Commission on Science and Technology Cooperation to look at high technology areas such as Artificial Intelligence, cyber, quantum, nano and bio-advances.
China’s actions have ‘no credible explanation,’ India says
(rs/sr/lm) China and India are going through a “particularly bad patch” in their ties, partly because Beijing never offered New Delhi a credible explanation for violating agreements governing the disputed Line of Actual Control (LAC) in the Himalayan heights of Ladakh, Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar said on November 19. [Bloomberg, $] [The Indian Express]
The remarks assume added significance, coming as they did just a day after representatives of both countries agreed to revive talks between their border commanders “at an early date”, after a month-long freeze on the format. The decision was made at the 23rd meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation & Coordination on India-China Border Affairs (WMCC) held virtually on November 18. [The Hindu]
In the aftermath of the last high-level talks – held on October 10 after a gap of two months – the two militaries had blamed each other for failing to reach a deal to ease the 18-month military standoff. [AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2]
The two sides have disengaged their troops at from three friction points – Pangong Tso, Galwan Valley and Gogra [see AiR No. 41, October/2021, 2]. But China is yet to show inclination to withdraw from other newly occupied areas, namely Patrolling Point 15 at Hot Springs, and the Depsang Plains in eastern Ladakh, both of which did not feature in a piecemeal disengagement process initiated in February.
Moreover, the two countries remain in dispute over how far their troops should retreat: to the pre-April 2020 positions in the western section along the LAC, as India proposed, or to the positions maintained immediately after the 1962 border war, which China recognizes. [South China Morning Post 1]
In a move described by analysts as a strong but measured warning to the Indian military not to escalate tensions over winter, China’s state-run news channel China Central Television (CCTV) aired footage of H-6K bombers flying near the Himalayas last week. The aircraft was armed with short-range KD-63 missiles – and not the long-range CJ-20 cruise missiles that it is also designed to carry.
Citing a Beijing-based military source, the South China Morning Posts reports that the bomber planes are usually based in Shaanxi province, close to Beijing, but had been moved last year to the neighboring western region of Xinjiang. [South China Morning Post 2] [The EurAsian Times]
US special representative for Afghanistan travels to India, meets NSA, foreign secretary
(rs/lm) The newly appointed United States Special Representative for Afghanistan, Thomas West, arrived in India on November 16 and met with National Security Adviser Ajit Doval and Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla to discuss current developments in the war-torn country. [Hindustan Times]
Before arriving to New Delhi, West had participated in a meeting of special envoys from the so-called Troika Plus comprising Pakistan, China, Russia and the United States in Islamabad on November 11, and held talks with Russia’s special representative for Afghanistan, Zamir Kabulov, in Moscow on November 15. [AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3]
India, for its part, on November 10 had hosted senior security officials from Russia, Iran and five Central Asian countries to discuss the situation in Afghanistan following the Taliban takeover of the country in talks that were boycotted by Pakistan and China. No representative from the erstwhile Afghan government or the Taliban had been invited. [AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3]
Myanmar, Pakistan, China among 10 countries included on US religious freedom ‘concern’ list
(tj/lm) Myanmar, China and Pakistan are among 10 countries designated by the United States as “Countries of particular Concern” (CPC) due to severe violations of religious freedom.
Each year the US Secretary of State designates governments, which, because of their religious freedom violations, are believed to merit designation under the US International Religious Freedom Act, as a CPC. [U.S. Department of State]
These designations are based on assessments made by the independent US Commission on International Religious Freedom (USCIRF). Crucially, the commission’s recommendations are not binding, and this year saw Nigeria, India, Syria and Vietnam escape CPC designation despite recommendation by the USCIRF. [USCIRF]
Other countries designated as CPC include Eritrea, Iran, North Korea, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan. Algeria, Comoros, Cuba, and Nicaragua were included on a Special Watch List, while Azerbaijan, Afghanistan, Turkey, Egypt, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Iraq were not included in Blinken’s final designation. [Al Jazeera]
US Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, also designated al-Shabab, Boko Haram, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the Houthis, ISIS, ISIS-Greater Sahara, ISIS-West Africa, Jamaat Nasr al-Islam wal-Muslimin, and the Taliban as Entities of Particular Concern.
Pakistan on November 17 rejected the designation, terming it an "arbitrary and selective assessment" and highlighting the "glaring omission of India" from the blacklist. Islamabad also said that its stance on the matter had been conveyed to Washington. [Dawn]
Russia granted dialogue partner status by Indian Ocean Rim Association
(sk/lm) Russia has been granted the status of dialogue partner of the Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA), international organization comprising 23 states bordering the Indian Ocean, following the 21st annual meeting of the grouping’s Council of Foreign Minister on November 17. [TASS]
The summit, which was chaired by Bangladesh, also formed a working group on disaster risk management under India’s coordination and finalized IORA rules for humanitarian aid and disaster relief. [The Daily Star]
Significantly, India – a major driving force in the IORA – is said to have strongly supported Russia’s bid, which came just days ahead of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the maiden two-plus-two talks that will bring together the two nations’ foreign and defense ministers. [The Economic Times] [see entry in this edition]
Both gatherings are set to be held on December 6, and could further support Moscow’s already enhanced presence in the Indian Ocean Region: In 2020, Russia announced plans to open a port in Sudan, giving Moscow its first military foothold in Africa since the fall of the Soviet Union. The two countries reached a deal that would give Russia’s navy a 25-year lease at Port Sudan, which hosts the country’s largest seaport. But Sudan wants to renegotiate the deal, Russian news agencies reported in September.
Maldives rejects ‘India Out’ campaign, calls India ‘trusted neighbour’
(rs/lm) The government of Maldivian President Ibrahim Mohamed Solih has again condemned the ongoing “India Out” campaign and rejected attempts to spread false information through social media.
Since last year, the island nation is witnessing a series of protests against Indian military presence, with allegations floating that bilateral cooperation between the two countries would undermine the national security and sovereignty of the Maldives. In addition to anti-India rallies and campaigns on social media, the Progressive Congress, a coalition of the opposition Progressive Party of Maldives (PPM) and the People’s National Congress (PNC), has taken its fight to Parliament as well. [Times Now]
In a statement, the government said that the allegation regarding ties with India – one of the Maldives key bilateral partners – is “misguided and unsubstantiated” and these views are not the sentiments of the general public, but rather that of a small group of individuals with the objective of tarnishing the country’s long-standing cordial ties with India. [Business Standard]
In related developments, a committee of the Maldivian parliament has stated that three agreements between the country’s National Defense Force (MNDF) and the Indian military to not contain any clauses that cause concern. [avas]
UN General Assembly committee adopts Rohingya Resolution
(sk/lm) The Third Committee of the United Nations General Assembly has approved a resolution on the human rights conditions of the Rohingya Muslims and other minorities in Myanmar without a vote. [United Nations]
The member states of the Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) and the European Union (EU) jointly proposed the resolution that was co-sponsored by 107 countries, the highest since 2017. It garnered widespread cross-regional support, with co-sponsorship from the United States, Canada, Mexico, Argentina, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, Japan, and South Korea, among others.
Myanmar was urged to address the core causes of the Rohingya issue, fulfill its commitments under bilateral agreements with Bangladesh, and fully engage with the UN Special Envoy for Myanmar and all UN human rights bodies, among other things.
The resolution welcomed the appointment of the Secretary General’s new Special Envoy on Myanmar and recommended a work plan for her engagements in Myanmar. It also asked for the renewal and efficient implementation of the Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between Myanmar and the UNHCR and UNDP to create a conducive environment in Myanmar’s Rakhine State. [Prothom Alo]
Visiting United States officials urges Nepal to ratify $500 million compact
(lm) A senior official of the United States Department of State has called on Nepal for a decision on a $500 million compact offered by the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), a bilateral US foreign aid agency, hinting that further delay could force Washington to divert the grant assistance to some other countries. [The Kathmandu Post]
Donald Lu, Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs, and his deputy were both in Kathmandu last week to meet Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba and other political leaders, including opposition leader KP Sharma Oli. Their visit came on the heels of an earlier four-day visit by an MCC delegation in September, which had emphasized that the US was not prepared to wait indefinitely for Nepal to gets its act together [see AiR No. 38, September/2021, 3].
In 2017, Nepal signed the MCC-Nepal Compact after spending nearly three years working with MCC and development experts to design and negotiate the grant program. Under the compact, Washington agreed to provide $100 million in grants a year over five years under the MCC to support the implementation of two major infrastructure projects in Nepal, while Kathmandu would chip in $130 million. [Millennium Challenge Corporation]
The MCC Nepal Compact clauses requiring that it be ratified by Nepal’s Parliament, and that the project be completed five years after the work officially commences. Kathmandu had committed to ratifying the MCC in Parliament by September 2019, but back then, the process had been deadlocked by the feud in the then-ruling Communist Party of Nepal [see AiR No. 37, September/2020, 3]. What is more, at present, less than one-third of lawmakers in parliament’s lower chamber are believed to support the agreement [see AiR No. 42, October/2021, 3].
Crucially, the message from the senior US diplomat comes ahead of a meeting of the MCC Board that is going to discuss and review the progress made on the MCC-Nepal Compact in mid-December. The board could terminate the contract with Nepal for failing to ratify the compact for more than two years.
Indian, French Air Forces conduct second edition of joint Exercise Desert Knight
(rs) The Indian and French Air Forces have carried out a joint exercise called ‘Desert Knight 2’ over the Western Seaboard. The exercise brought together 16 assets from both countries, including Mirage 2000, Su-30 MKI, SEPECAT Jaguar, and Rafale fighter jets. The first edition of the Exercise Desert Knight took place earlier this year in January in India’s Rajasthan state and was a part of the French air force “SkyRos” deployment that aims to increase Paris’ influence in the region. [The EurAsian Times] [WION]
Meanwhile, military personnel from the Indian and French Armies are currently participating in the sixth edition of the joint biennial EX SHAKTI 2021 exercise. Commenced on November 15 in the French port town of Frejus, the 12-day long drills will run until November 26. A platoon strength of a Gorkha Rifles Infantry Battalion is representing the Indian contingent in the exercise, while the French side is being represented by troops of the 21st Marine Infantry Regiment of the 6th Light Armoured Brigade. [AiR No. 46, November/2021, 3]
India, France hold 15th meeting of counter-terrorism working group
(rs/lm) During the 15th meeting of a joint working group on counterterrorism, France and India have underlined the need to ensure that Afghanistan does not once again become a base of operations for modern Islamist terrorist organizations and agreed to work more closely together in security issues. [Greek City Times] [The Hindu]
In tangential reference to Pakistan, a statement issued after the meeting – held in Paris on November 16 – said that the two sides condemned all forms of terror activities, including cross-border terrorism. [India's Ministry of External Affairs]
The next meeting of the working group is set to be held in India in 2022.
Indonesia: WTO session held over EU’s lawsuit against nickel ore export ban
(ms) Indonesia has attended a session held by the World Trade Organization’s (WTO) Dispute Settlement Body in regard to the EU’s lawsuit against the country’s nickel ore export ban. The EU is of the opinion that Indonesia’s ban is illegal, a violation of the commitment of WTO members to grant access to international trade. It has claimed the ban is unfair on the bloc’s stainless-steel producers, who are further struggling due to global overcapacity, illegal subsidies, and the COVID-19 induced economic crisis. Nickel ore is a crucial ingredient for stainless steel production. The Indonesian delegation has disagreed, President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo has vowed to use every available way to fight the lawsuit. [Antara News] [The Jakarta Post, $]
The ban, which took effect on 1 January 2020, stipulates that nickel must be processed in Indonesia’s smelters before being exported. It is intended to spur the development of the downstream nickel industry in Indonesia and thereby create jobs. Before the ban took place, Indonesia was the world’s largest exporter of nickel ore. The country also plans to ban bauxite exports from 2022 and raw copper exports from 2023 for the same reason. [The Jakarta Post, $]
US Secretary of Commerce to promote economic framework in Asia
(nd) US Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo last week made a trip to Singapore, Malaysia and Japan in order to promote the planned Indo-Pacific economic framework. Potentially be started in the beginning of 2022, Raimondo’s trip was supposed to prepare the ground after critics of the US Indo-Pacific strategy lamented a lack of an economic component. In 2017, former US president Donald Trump withdrew from the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP). Raimondo made clear that the US will not rejoin the CPTPP. China is September applied to join the CPTPP.
Bilaterally, Raimondo and her respective counterpart discussed improving transparency, as well as resilience and security in the semiconductor and manufacturing sector supply chains, and climate change, and agreed to sign bilateral agreements on these issues. [The Japan Times] [Reuters] [The Straits Times]
Myanmar: Junta leader banned from ASEAN-China summit; NUG representative invited for climat conference
(tl) The Myanmar junta General Min Aung Hlaing was banned from the ASEAN-China summit on November 22, held to celebrate the 30th anniversary of bilateral relations between China and ASEAN. Although China had arranged an invitation for the general, it faced opposition from the bloc.
The leader had already been excluded from a meeting of member countries last month due to opposition from a majority of member countries, including Malaysia, Singapore, Brunei and Indonesia, due to the unfulfilled five-point agreement, which was reached with the association in April. One of the key points of the agreement was to enable a delegation to visit democratically elected and deposed leader Aung San Suu Kyi, with the visit to be arranged by ASEAN.
As replacement for the junta leader, ASEAN said it would accept a non-political representative from the coup government. For its part, however, the junta merely expressed its opposition to this view, calling on ASEAN to stick to its policy of non-interference in internal affairs of member countries. [Irrawaddy 1]
Meanwhile, ASEAN invited a minister from the parallel Myanmar’s government to a three-days conference on climate change organized by the regional bloc. The move marks the first time that the Southeast-Asian association has committed to deal with the National Unity Government (NUG), which was formed as the country’s former government by elected lawmakers from Myanmar’s ousted National League for Democracy and its ethnic allies after the 1 February’s military coup.
The NUG’s minister of natural resources and environmental conservation will join the Third Climate Smart and Disaster Resilient ASEAN conference as a minister from Myanmar, along with ministers from other ASEAN countries and international experts. According to analysts, the move taken by ASEAN and coordinated by ASEAN chair Brunei, marks a first step towards the recognition of the parallel government.
Since its formation in April, the NUG has been pushing ASEAN and other countries to recognize it as the rightful government of Myanmar and has sought to be included in its meetings as the country’s representative. [Irrawaddy]
Myanmar: Military junta denied Japanese envoy from meeting Aung San Suu Kyi
(tl) Myanmar’s junta denied Yohei Sasakawa, the chairman of the Japanese Nippon Foundation charity, to meet the detained former leader Aung San Suu Kyi.
During his five-days visit to the country on November 15, Sasakawa, who is also Japan’s special envoy for national reconciliation in Myanmar, met the regime’s leader Min Aung Hlaing and representatives of political parties, including a senior of the National League for Democracy party (NLD) whom he did not name.
The junta's ban on meetings with the former democratically elected leader still concerns leaders and representatives of countries and associations who request them, including most recently China's special envoy Sun Guoxiang. To date, Aung San Suu Kyi is still being held at an unknown location within the capital Naypyitaw. [Irrawaddy]
Thailand: CIA deputy chief meets Thai PM to discuss regional security
(kk) David Cohen – deputy director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) – met with Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-O-Cha in Bangkok to discuss a range of security issues including regional security, the Thai-US security cooperation, the security situation in Myanmar, and Thailand’s humanitarian aid to Myanmar. In addition, the CIA deputy director assured the US support for Thailand’s role as chair of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) forum in 2022 and its understanding of the political situation in Thailand. [Thai PBS World]
Cohen also had separate meetings with Deputy Prime Minister Prawit Wongsuwan and General Supoj Malaniyom, secretary-general of the National Security Council. However, Prawit denied speculations that they were discussing security issues, claiming the meeting was a “personal reunion”. [Bangkok Post]
Earlier, Thai Foreign Minister Don Pramudwinai revealed he discussed important issues with Myanmar’s junta leader, Min Aung Hlaing, during his visit to Myanmar. A Thai newspaper reported that the minister also delivered 17 tons of relief supplies to Myanmar, quoting the minister saying the donation was from the Thai private sector, which was concerned about the situation in Myanmar. [The Irrawaddy]
Timor-Leste’s bumpy road to ASEAN
(nd) Last month, the 11th meeting of the ASEAN Coordinating Council working group on Timor-Leste's application for membership was held via teleconference. Membership decisions are made on the three pillars of the bloc, politics/security, economy and socio-cultural cooperation. Timor-Leste has applied for a membership in the bloc in 2011 and is the only Southeast Asian nation that is not a member of ASEAN. For Timor-Leste, a membership would be beneficial with respect to economics and international presence. Likewise, it disposes of extensive oil and natural gas reserves, and yet unexplored resource bases in fisheries, agriculture and tourism. Additionally, low corporate taxes make it an interesting investment destination.
What was described by analysts as a desperate move for Myanmar’s vote on its membership, Timor-Leste in June 2021 abstained from a vote on a resolution in the UN General Assembly condemning Myanmar's military junta, as well as on another one banning weapon sales to the junta. The former president of Timor-Leste, Jose Ramos-Horta, called it a "vote of shame." Also, the tactic backfired when other ASEAN members, such as Singapore, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam supported the UN resolution. [The Manila Times]
Vietnam alleges Taiwanese violation of sovereignty in East Sea archipelago
(bs) Vietnam accused Taiwan of violating Vietnam’s sovereignty in the Spratly Islands after a Taiwanese submarine was deployed in the area for drilling activities. The Vietnamese Ministry of Foreign Affair requested immediate removal of the submarine and termination of the project, and exhorted Taiwan to comply with the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS).
The archipelago has been under Vietnamese administration since the official declaration made by South Vietnam’s Emperor at the San Francisco Peace Conference in 1951, according to which “Vietnam was continuing France’s claim to the Spratly Islands”.
Moreover, in 1956, South Vietnam included the area as part of the Vietnamese province of Phuoc Tuy. Although China, Brunei, and Taiwan have claimed ownership of the islands, Vietnam maintains sovereign power over the area according to UNCLOS and the multiple declarations of sovereignty made by Vietnam from 1956 to 2014. [Nhân Dân] [Jstor] [The National Bureau of Asian Research]
Vietnam started occupying the archipelago in 1975 and has been building on the islands ever since. The last project, which included the construction of a port by 2030 drew China’s criticism, intensifying the tensions between Vietnam and China. [South China Morning Post]
In addition to the dispute, on November 18, Vietnam hosted the 13th International Conference on the East Sea, where over 180 delegates, including the ASEAN countries, China, the US, and European Union representatives, discussed the ongoing issues of the East Sea situation, especially the need to respect the code of conduct to maintain peaceful multilateral relationships over maritime sovereignty disputes. [Newsnpr]
While Vietnam is resolute in adhering to the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) as the primary normative foundation of the South China Sea maritime order, China claims historical rights in the area despite the 2016 UNCLOS arbitration court tribunal ruling rejecting the entirety of such claims.
Following the decision of the UNCLOS tribunal regarding the Chinese claims, the ASEAN countries, including Vietnam, have rejected the 20-year-long negotiations on drafting and adopting a South China Sea Code of Conduct (COC) that is merely based on historical claims. The COC would mark territorial borders and define multilateral agreements to ensure political stability among all the claimant countries.
Furthermore, instead of directly challenging China, Vietnam’s strategy is to find support for its claims from the members of international organizations, ASEAN in particular. [The Diplomat]
Vietnamese workers for a Chinese company in Serbia allegedly victims of trafficking and exploitation
(bs) Vietnamese authorities are investigating the alleged abuse of Vietnamese immigrants employed in a Chinese tire factory, China's Shandong Linglong Tire Co., in Serbia.
Serbian NGOs for the protection of workers’ rights have informed Vietnam of the inhumane treatment of over 500 Vietnamese workers by a Chinese company. After an inspection of the factory’s construction location, Serbian NGOs suspect that the immigrant workers have been victims of human trafficking and labor exploitation. The Chinese company has taken their passports and has not provided any work permits limiting the workers’ freedom of movement.
While the hiring company denies any accusations, the NGOs found evidence that the Vietnamese citizens are deprived of clean and warm water, personal protection equipment, and do not receive adequate amounts of food. [Hanoi Times] [Balkan Insight] [US News]
The Philippines accuses China of firing water cannons towards boats, issue radio challenge to Philippine flight in South China Sea
(lt) Philippine officials have claimed that China fired water cannons at Filipino boats at Second Thomas Shoal, preventing them from resupplying a South China Sea outpost. This follows on from Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin’s outrage on November 16 following three Chinese coast guard vessels blocking two Philippine boats that attempted to supply soldiers with food at Second Thomas Shoal. Second Thomas Shoal – alternatively known as Ayungin Shoal to Filipinos – is one of the many Spratly Islands, the latter of which have overlapping claims made by the Philippines, Brunei, China, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam. The Philippines has occupied the shoal since 1999, though this has been disputed between China and the Philippines in recent years.
Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte has consequently announced his participation in the ASEAN-China Special Summit following this incident. This hostility serves as the main impetus behind Philippine participation at the ASEAN-China Special Summit, where Duterte is expected to promote the nation’s stance on cooperation in the South China Sea. Duterte will be accompanied by Foreign Affairs Secretary Teodoro Locsin Jr., Trade and Industry Secretary Ramon Lopez, Senator Christopher Go, Presidential Assistant for Foreign Affairs Rober E. A. Borje, and Social Welfare and Development Undersecretary Luzviminda Ilagan. The Summit is expected to take place virtually on November 22, 2021.
Just days following the Second Thomas Shoal incident, Chinese authorities challenged a Philippine flight carrying reporters to Pag-Asa Island, one of the Spratly Islands located in the South China Sea, on November 20. Pag-Asa Island is one of the largest islands occupied by the Philippines, and is often subject to Chinese aggression. The United States, a longtime ally of the Philippines, has escalated diplomatic tensions by issuing a statement regarding the incident. Ned Price, the State Department Spokesman of the United States, has affirmed that increased aggression by China “would invoke US mutual defense commitments under Article IV of the 1951 US Philippines Mutual Defense Treaty.”
The European Union likewise supported the Philippines and referred to the arbitration tribunal ruling of 2016, which rejected all of China’s historical claims in the disputed waterways. [South China Morning Post]
Philippine nationals often face heavy harassment by Chinese authorities whilst in the Spratly islands, occurring through media interference or physical intimidation. Presidential candidate and current Senator Ping Lacson reported experiencing a similar situation. When visiting Pag-Asa Island, the Senator’s pilot was challenged by Chinese Coast Guard vessels stationed in the area. Upon landing, Lacson reportedly received a text message which stated, “Welcome to China.” [Bloomberg] [CNN Philippines] [Manila Bulletin] [Radio Free Asia]
The Philippines: Push for revising military alliance between United States, Philippines
(lt) Ongoing tensions between the Philippines and China in the South China Sea illustrate the need to review the Mutual Defense Treaty between the United States and the Philippines, as expressed by Philippine Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana. A pact established in 1951 between the United States and the Philippines, the Mutual Defense Treaty asserts that one party must aid the other during an attack. In recent years, its ambiguous definitions have been circumvented by China, as evidenced in China’s use of civilian militias to assert Chinese occupation in the South China Sea. The nation’s refusal to use military forces to do so ensures the avoidance of a military dispute, preventing the Philippines from activating the Mutual Defense Treaty. Lorenzana states that China’s aggression requires the pact’s review and renewal.
Lorenzana went on further to state “... when I broached the idea of revisiting the Mutual Defense Treaty, the former Chinese ambassador came up to me and said, “Please do not touch the Mutual Defense Treaty, leave it as it is.” In a statement to The Associated Press, a Philippine diplomat discussed China’s concerns that Philippine and American officials may insert provisions deemed threatening to China’s security interests should the treaty be amended. [Associated Press News] [East Asia Forum]
Announcements
Upcoming Online Events
26 November 2021 @ 2:00-4:15 p.m. (GMT+7), CPG, Thailand
Hedging, Bending or Choosing – Aasen in Times of Tightening Great Power Competition
This webinar will discuss the strategic alternatives ASEAN and its member states have at hand to respond to an intensifying Sino-US great power rivalry which significantly affects the geopolitical landscape in Southeast Asia.
Find more at [CPG].
24 November 2021 @ 6:00-7:00 p.m. (GMT+00), Chatham House, UK
Independence movements in Europe
Several regions in Europe started to call for independence before the breakout of COVID-19, and they have now resumed the movements. This conference will observe the return of the tensions and the future of the movements, specifically the Catalonia and Scotland cases.
For more details of the event, see [Chatham House].
24-26 November 2021, ADB Institute, Japan
ADBI-APAEA Conference on COVID-19 and Central Banking in Asia and the Pacific
This webinar will focus on central banks in Asia and the Pacific, their recovery policies in response to COVID-19, and how effective they are in practice.
For more details of the event, see [ADB].
24 November 2021 @ 8.30 a.m. (GMT+1), Bruegel, Belgium
Advance Global Value and Supply Chain to Mitigate the Challenges Arising from the Current Pandemic
This conference is the 1st session of the Asia-Europe Economic and Business Forum which will be held in Cambodia. The event will discuss the reordered global value chains and their instability, with a specific focus on the Asian value chain.
If you wish you attend this event, register at [Bruegel].
25 November 2021 @ 9.30 a.m. (GMT+1), Bruegel, Belgium
COP26: Global Stocktake and What’s Next
This webinar will debrief the COP26 and explore the summit’s impact players and lost opportunities. It will also debate on what should be the future direction of global climate action after Glasgow.
For more details, see [Bruegel].
25 November 2021 @ 6:00-8:00 p.m. (GMT+10), Australian Institute of International Affairs – Western Australia, Australia
Afghanistan: views from different angles
This online event will feature a conversation between two experts who will discuss the quick upturn of the Taliban, the geopolitical impacts of the change, and how these consequences specifically affect Australia’s Afghan community and their humanitarian crisis.
More information is available at [AIIAWA].
24-25 November 2021 @ 2:00-5:0 a.m. (GMT+1), International Crisis Group, Belgium
2021 Watch List Policy Dialogue
This two-day conference will present four short panel discussions on four timely topics: Afghanistan, the Horn of Africa, Lebanon, and Venezuela. Each discussion group will focus on how the EU can contribute to global security as well as identify key policy obstacles to improving peace.
Visit [ISEAS] to learn more about the event.
24-25 November 2021, Danish Institute for International Studies, Denmark
10 months after the military coup - where is Myanmar heading?
At this two-day seminar, international Myanmar experts will offer insights on the current situation in Myanmar and the future direction of the country, as well as the Southeast Asia region. The discussion will focus on the political power of the military since the military coup, the roles of political parties and elected government in the current and future developments, and the implications of Myanmar’s situation for ASEAN and the world.
For more details of the event, see [DIIS].
25 November 2021 @ 12:30 p.m.-1:30 p.m. (GMT+10), Strategic & Defence Studies Centre, Australian National University, Australia
Partners in Deterrence: US Nuclear Weapons and Alliances in Europe and Asia
Nuclear weapons have been essential to the internal politics among US alliances in Europe and Asia since the start of the atomic era. Nuclear weapons cooperation in US alliances, on the other hand, differed greatly in spatial and temporal terms.
If you wish you attend this event, register at [SDSC].
26 November 2021 @ 3:30-5:00 p.m. (GMT+8), East Asian Institute, National University of Singapore, Singapore
Venture Capital in China: Law and Practice
This webinar will feature Dr. Lin Lin, an associate professor from the Faculty of Law, National University of Singapore, who will speak on China’s venture capital (VC) market after it has become the second largest market in the world. During the session, the speaker will explore legal problems with VC fundraising, the Chinese government’s economic policies toward the VC market, and lessons learned from the development.
Find more about the webinar at [NUS].
26 November 2021 @ 9:30-5:00 p.m. (GMT+1), Danish Institute for International Studies, Denmark
China after COVID-19 and a Changing World Order
This conference will feature researchers and post-graduate scholars who will disseminate knowledge and insights about China, the world’s current major player, the country’s developments and its impacts on the world after the COVID-19 pandemic, from the perspectives of Denmark and Europe.
If you want to know more about the event, visit [DIIS].
26 November 2021 @ 12:00-1:00 p.m. (GMT+00), Chatham House, UK
30 years since the fall of the USSR
Since the dissolution of the USSR 30 years ago, the consequences of such sudden incorporation have resonated throughout the region and the world. This webinar will explore the causes of the USSR's demise, its legacy, and the term post-Soviet space.
For more details of the event, see [Chatham House].
26 November 2021 @ 10:00-11:00 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore
Recurring Themes in the Politics of Parti Keadilan Rakyat
Although Parti Keadlian Rakyat (PKR, or People’s Justice Party), a prominent political party in Malaysia, achieved a huge political triumph by conquering the 61-year-old Barisam National regime three years ago by establishing the Pakatan Harapan affiliation, the country’s political situation still faces challenges from the collapse of the coalition, the COVID-19 pandemic, and economic shrinking. This webinar will explore the PKR and its significance to Malaysian politics.
Visit [ISEAS] to learn more about the event.
29 November 2021 @ 9:00 – 11:00 a.m. (GMT-5), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA
Exploring the Black Box of North Korea in a Globalized Context
In this online session, the CSIS Korea chair will lead a discussion on North Korea’s political schemes and its relationship with the region. Findings from a study conducted for many years to reveal the complexities of North Korea’s state and regional relationships
Visit [CSIS] to learn more about the event.
29 November 2021 @ 3:00-4:00 p.m. (GMT-5), Center for Strategic & International Studies, USA
Unpacking China’s Sixth Plenum
This webinar will focus on the 6th Plenum of the 19th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party and the implications from this consolidation to China and its domestic and foreign policy in the future.
Further information is accessible via [CIDOB].
29 November 2021 @ 12:00 p.m. (GMT-5), Hudson Institute, US
Understanding Wolf Warrior Diplomacy with Peter Martin
This online event will feature Peter Martin, the author of the book "China’s Civilian Army: The Making of Wolf Warrior Diplomacy." The speaker will explore China's new style of diplomatic policy, termed "wolf warrior diplomacy," which poses a more aggressive position towards the U.S. and its democratic alliances. However, Peter Martin will argue that the style is nothing new in Chinese diplomacy and is motivated by the same goals.
More information is available at [Hudson Institute].
29 November 2021 @ 12:00-1:00 p.m. (GMT+1), European Council of Foreign Relations, Germany
India-China Luncheon Lectures – Understanding Sino-Indian Climate Diplomacy
In this webinar, geopolitics and climate studies experts will discuss climate change governance in relation to the relationship between China and India and explore what the two countries agree and disagree on and what effect their geopolitical differences have on their diplomatic strategies on climate action.
Find more about the webinar at [ecfr.eu].
30 November 2021 @9:00 p.m. (GMT-8), Hoover Institution, Stanford University, USA
Australia: Promoting peace and prosperity across the Indo-Pacific and Beyond
In this webinar, two experts will discuss the economic situation after the COVID-19 pandemic, interlinked energy security and climate change threats, and the necessity of competing with the forceful Chinese Communist Party.
If you want to know more about the event, visit [Hoover Institute].
30 November 2021 @11:00 a.m.-12:15 p.m. (GMT-8), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Students, Sandford University, USA
Catching up with the West: The Emergence of China's Middle Class with Professor Terry Sicular
This webinar will focus on the development of China’s contemporary economy in relation to the middle class.
If you wish you attend this event, register at [FSI].
30 November 2021 @1:00 p.m. (GMT-5), Freeman Spogli Institute for International Students, Sandford University, USA
Cyber Threats and Nuclear Weapons
With the rapid change of a world increasingly transformed by technology, the U.S. nuclear weapons control system must keep up with the world's development. Still, several risks may follow from using technology, including cyber threats and a new level of nuclear risk.
More information is available at [FSI].
30 November 2021 @ 9:00 a.m.-10:15 p.m. (GMT-5), Wilson Center, USA
Super Grids and Power Reforms: Unlocking China’s Clean Energy Transition
Although cheap coal has been fundamental to China’s prosperity, the country aims to achieve net carbon neutrality by 2060. At this conference, experts will offer insights on China’s power sector reforms and its visions of a "new energy cloud" and a "supergrid" of ultra-high-voltage power cables.
More information is available at [Wilson Center].
30 November 2021 @ 5:15-6:30 p.m. (GMT+10), Australian Institute of International Affairs – Western Australia, Australia
The Vote for Cambodia: Australia's Diplomatic Intervention
This hybrid webinar panel discussion will present Richard Broinowski AO and the launch of his new book: "The Vote for Cambodia: Australia's Diplomatic Intervention." During the session, Richard Broinowski AO will talk about Australia’s attempt to contribute to the development of contemporary Cambodia and argue that the effort has failed.
For more details of the event, see [AIIAWA].
30 November 2021 @ 10:00 - 11:00 a.m. (GMT+8), ISEAS – Yusof Ishak Institute, Singapore
ASEAN and the New Geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific has once seriously affected by great power rivalry during the Cold War period. Now, there are a lot of anxiety about the resurgence of such competition and the emergence of new geo-politics in the region. This webinar will examine these emerging trends, the US-China rivalry, and its implications to the ASEAN region.
If you wish you attend this event, register at [ISEAS]
30 November 2021 @ 2:00-3:00 p.m. (GMT+00), Overseas Development Institute, UK
China's Role in the Multilateral Development Banks
This webinar will feature a panel of experts from ODI, Boston University Global Development Policy Center, Shanghai Institutes of International Studies, and the Center for Global Development who will provide findings from their recent report on China and its increasingly important roles in the multilateral development banks as a major financier and creditor, and unpack the country’s underlying schemes behind their engagement with the MDBs.
Follow [ODI] to learn more about the event.
30 November 2021 @ 12:00-1:00 p.m. (GMT-5), Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School, USA
U.S.-European Relations: Where Do We Stand?
U.S.-European relations have been more challenging than ever after the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The two powers have repositioned and redefined their roles in global issues, including climate change, European security, and relations with China. This webinar will investigate the newly defined positions and forecast the future of the U.S.-European relationships.
For more details, see [Belfer Center].
30 November 2021 @ 9:00-10:0 p.m. (GMT+2), Finnish Institute of International Affairs, Finland
Strategic contest in the Indo-Pacific and what it means for Europe
The Indo-Pacific region’s significance has been vital to the world in terms of wealth, population, and military power. As a result, the rivalry between great powers in the region is becoming more intense. Moreover, the recent diplomatic development of the AUKUS technology transfer agreement has raised questions about the region's security and stability. This webinar will explore the geopolitical implications of the AUKUS, the European position, and whether democracies will be able to maintain the security of the region.
Follow [FIIA] to learn more about the event.
30 November 2021 @ 6.30-7.30 p.m. (GMT-5), Asia Society Policy Institute, USA
Stacking the Deck: China’s Influence in Digital Rules Setting
As China attempts to be a key actor in the cyber world, the country has played a crucial role in setting digital rules for international standards. At the same time, questions arise about whether their efforts in contributing to the cyber and technology world will only serve the country’s benefits and enable the country to secure its place in the future of technologies. This webinar will discuss China’s political power in terms of technology, its influence, and examine this player’s true schemes.
More information is available at [Asia Society].
Recent Book Releases
Colin Thubron, The Amur River: Between Russia and China, Harper, 304 pages, published on September 21, 2021, reviewed in [Asian Review of Books].
Brendan Simms, Charlie Laderman, Hitler's American Gamble: Pearl Harbor and Germany’s March to Global War, Basic Books, 528 pages, published on November 16, 2021. A review is available at [The New York Times].
Jytte Klausen, Western Jihadism: A Thirty Year History, Oxford University Press, 560 pages, published on October 12, 2021, with a review in [TLS].
Desmond Shum, Red Roulette: An Insider’s Story of Wealth, Power, Corruption, and Vengeance in Today’s China, Scribner, 320 pages, published on September 7, 2021, briefly review in [Kirkus].
Phil Burton-Cartledge, Falling Down: The Conservative Party and the Decline of Tory Britain, Verso, 336 pages, published on September 14, 2021. Find a review at [Red Pepper].
Calls for Papers
Power and Democracy (PaD) invites manuscripts submissions for its v. 4 n. 2 /2021-issue on the topic of “The role of political institutions in complex societies”. Closing date of submission is December 31, 2021. For more information, visit [OJS].
Sapienza University of Rome invites paper proposals for its international conference “Technological Imagination in the Green and Digital Transition”. Deadline for submission is November 29, 2021. More details are available at [Technological Imagination].
Plan International Limited is inviting interested parties to submit proposals for a mid-term evaluation of its “Generation Change Program”. Proposals can be submitted until December 22, 2021. If you are interested, visit [Plan International].
Westminster Foundation for Democracy (WFD) is seeking a supplier to carry out media and social media monitoring activities in the Philippines. Closing date for this Invitation to Tender is December 8, 2021. Find more details at [WFD].
Jobs and Positions
The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) is hiring a Team Leader – Climate Security, with key responsibilities in strategic policy and analysis, and advisory support. Closing date for applications is December 7, 2021. See [UNDP] for more information.
The Danish Refugee Council (DRC) is recruiting a Protection Project Manager to be based in Lashio (Myanmar). Deadline for application is December 6, 2021. Visit [DRC] to learn more about the vacancy.
The European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), is looking for a Chief Scientist, who will be responsible for shaping EFSA’s scientific strategy and will act as scientific ambassador in high level scientific fora. Applications can be submitted until January 10, 2022. For more details, visit [EFSA].
The European Public Prosecutor's Office (EPPO) is offering the position of Counsellors to the European Chief Prosecutor. Closing date for applications is December 13, 2021. Visit [EPPO] for further information.
We would greatly appreciate your feedback! Please send any feedback you have regarding this newsletter to: info@cpg-online.de
Also, don't forget to Like CPG on Facebook, and browse our website for other updates and news!
