Good morning. This is Jeff Sparshott with the latest on the economy. You can send questions, comments and suggestions by replying to this email.

The U.S. has long been the lender of last resort to the world. During the emerging-market panics of the 1990s, the global financial crisis of 2007-09 and the pandemic shutdown of 2020, it was the Treasury’s unmatched capacity to borrow that came to the rescue. Now, the Treasury itself is a source of risk. No, the U.S. isn’t about to default or fail to sell enough bonds at its next auction. But the scale and upward trajectory of U.S. borrowing and absence of any political corrective now threaten markets and the economy in ways they haven’t for at least a generation. That’s the takeaway from the sudden sharp rise in Treasury yields in recent weeks, Greg Ip writes.

The U.S. trade deficit is expected to narrow to $59.5 billion in August from $65.02 billion one month earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET)

U.S. jobless claims are expected to rise to 210,000 in the week ended Sept. 30 from 204,000 one week earlier. (8:30 a.m. ET.

Federal Reserve speakers: Cleveland's Loretta Mester at the Chicago Payments Symposium at 9 a.m. ET, Minneapolis's Neel Kashkari on economic opportunity and inclusive growth at 10:40 a.m. ET (webcast), Richmond's Thomas Barkin to the 2023 WilmingtonBiz Conference & Expo at 11:30 a.m. ET, San Francisco’s Mary Daly to the Economic Club of New York at 12 p.m. ET and Vice Chair Michael Barr on cyber risk in the banking sector at 12:15 p.m. ET (webcast).

More than 75,000 nurses, pharmacists and other employees of the Kaiser Permanente health system walked off the job Wednesday in the largest U.S. healthcare strike on record. The workers struck after contracts expired and their unions couldn’t reach an agreement with Kaiser on how much a new deal would increase wages and staffing. The strike, which is scheduled to last as long as three days, adds hospitals, pharmacies and clinics to workplaces roiled by labor action this year, after auto workers and Hollywood writers stopped work, Melanie Evans reports.

Three weeks in, the United Auto Workers strike against Detroit’s carmakers has nearly all the hallmarks of a dug-in labor battle: euphoric worker walkouts, rushed contingency plans, wall-to-wall media coverage and fiery rhetoric. The one thing missing—at least so far—is much financial pain, on either side. WSJ's Ryan Felton looks at the UAW's start-small approach, which has left companies and workers guessing but also spared the most pivotal factories from walkouts.

The rapid speed of the Federal Reserve’s rate increases has injected volatility into everything from bonds to bitcoin. In the world of mortgage rates, it means that two buyers with similar financial profiles, making similar purchases, can wind up with monthly payments that differ by hundreds of dollars. WSJ's Ben Eisen has where to find the lowest rates and strategies some buyers are using to make their high mortgage rates sting a little bit less.

One other side-effect of rising rates: Lenders are competing for fewer borrowers. The Mortgage Bankers Association said mortgage applications to purchase a home at the end of September fell to the lowest level of activity since 1995.

Winning a billion dollars has never been such a letdown. Monday’s Powerball prize had a $490 million cash value, less than half of the advertised $1.04 billion, making it the tiniest 10-figure jackpot ever. In 2021, a similar $1 billion Mega Millions jackpot paid out a lump-sum prize of $776 million. Did the lottery people buy a shrink ray? Not quite. Winners have two choices. They can take the cash value now or opt for 30 annual payments that add up to the listed jackpot. The full jackpot amount is arrived at based on the returns of investing the cash prize in a portfolio of bonds. With the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to a 22-year high and bond yields following close behind, it takes far fewer 2023 dollars to buy bonds that pay out a billion dollars by 2052, Jeremy Olshan reports.

President Biden announced student-debt forgiveness for another tranche of Americans on Wednesday, months after the Supreme Court blocked the administration’s most ambitious borrower-relief plan. WSJ’s Gabriel T. Rubin follows the administration’s use of existing programs to wipe out debt and its latest $9 billion cancellation for 125,000 borrowers.

A record run of downward revisions to the federal government’s monthly jobs report is discouraging some Wall Street traders from making big bets on the data. The report is typically one of the most-watched economic releases on Wall Street because it helps signal the course of the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate policy. But each Labor Department release this year has revised prior reports lower, the first time on record that revisions have been negative every month through July. To some traders, the revisions potentially complicate Wall Street’s narrative that the economy’s strength means interest rates will stay high for longer than expected, Brenda León and Dion Rabouin report.

Newly licensed private businesses are becoming a lifeline for Cuba, bringing in about half of the country’s total food imports as the cash-strapped Communist government struggles to keep power plants running and provide public transport because of acute fuel shortages. Havana passed laws allowing Cubans to form small businesses that can employ up to 100 people in the wake of country-wide protests that shook the impoverished island two years ago. Since then, more than 8,000 small and medium businesses have registered with the government. These businesses are now leading importers in a country that relies on imports of everything from fuel to most of its food, Deborah Acosta and José de Córdoba report.

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Real Time Economics comes to you from WSJ reporters and editors around the world. Today's issue was curated and edited by Jeff Sparshott (@jeffsparshott) and Greg Ip (@greg_ip) in Washington, D.C., and our real-time news desk in London.

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