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October 13, 2021 - Brief Issue 249

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

The Delta Wave is Waning in the U.S., But Deaths Remain High (Health & Science)

Fauci Encourages Halloween Festivities, Looks Forward to Vaccinations Approved for Children (Health & Science)

Data Says Risk of Coronavirus Depends on Age (Health & Science)

Moderna, Johnson & Johnson Push for Boosters Again (Health & Science)

IMF Downgrades Outlook in Global Growth (Around the World)

U.S. to Reopen Canada and Mexico Borders for Fully Vaccinated Travelers (Around the World)

Russia’s Daily Coronavirus Deaths Hit Another Record High (Around the World)

British Government’s Pandemic Response Was a Historic Failure, Say Lawmakers (Around the World)

Amid Pandemic, U.S. Sees Record Revenue Surge (U.S. Government & Politics)

Texas Bans Vaccine Mandates (U.S. Government & Politics)

New Jersey Governor’s Race Puts Pandemic Policy in Spotlight (U.S. Government & Politics)

Despite Hundreds of Deaths, Vaccination a Hard Sell Among Police (U.S. Government & Politics)

With Pandemic-Era Leverage, Record Numbers of Workers Quit (U.S. Economy)

Office Workers Returning at Highest Rate of the Pandemic (U.S. Economy)

Amazon Loosens Return to Work Policy (U.S. Economy)

Despite Overall Decline in Office Leasing, Tech Companies Still Leasing Seattle Office Space (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 44,571,733 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 716,570 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 403,576,826 vaccine doses, with 65.5% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 56.5% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 78.4% have received at least one dose, and 67.9% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 4.6% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 238,804,901 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 4,867,684 deaths.

The Delta Wave is Waning in the U.S., But Deaths Remain High 

The surge of coronavirus from the highly infectious Delta variant is finally waning in Southern states, where it hit the hardest. Over the past week, the number of new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths fell across the country. But the number of deaths still remains high, hovering at around 1,500 deaths per day. That number of deaths was last seen at the end of the winter surge before vaccines were widely available (WaPo). Health experts worry that with colder weather arriving, the Delta surge could continue and the current decline in cases is temporary. "We still have a couple of months to go until this Delta wave sweeps across the country in a regionalized fashion and we are sort of done with it," said Dr. Scott Gottlieb, the former director of the US Food and Drug Administration (CNN). "You're starting to see an uptick in cases in the colder parts of the country and, as people are driven indoors without masks on, you'll start to see cases pick up," he said Monday. Bonus Read: “Biden’s billion-dollar testing plan could struggle with a winter reality,” (Politico) and “Covid-19 Rapid Testing at Home Will Get Easier, but Test Wisely,” (WSJ).

Fauci Encourages Halloween Festivities, Looks Forward to Vaccinations Approved for Children

Last year, U.S. federal health agencies discouraged traditional Halloween celebrations but Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the nation’s top infectious-disease doctor, made it clear that wouldn’t be repeated. During a CNN interview on Sunday, Fauci encouraged trick-or-treating, saying “particularly if you’re vaccinated, you can get out there — you’re outdoors for the most part.” In the same interview, Fauci said that data on coronavirus vaccines for children will be “coming before the FDA relatively soon” and if approved for children, greater protection from the virus among the entire population could be achieved. The Food and Drug Administration is expected to meet this month to consider Pfizer-BioNTech’s request for emergency use authorization of its vaccine in children aged 5 to 11 (WaPo).

Data Says Risk of Coronavirus Depends on Age

In a report by the New York Times, data from hospitalization rates in Seattle and across England show that the risk of serious illness from Covid-19 in unvaccinated children is still much lower than it is in vaccinated elderly people. Hospitalization rates in King County, Washington, which includes Seattle, fall below 0.16 per 100,000 people for children 15 and under. The rate of hospitalization for those 65 and above and who are vaccinated is 0.41 per 100,000 people. In England, nationwide statistics show an even larger age skew, with children under the age of 12 seeming to be at less risk than vaccinated people in their 40s. The Times sums up the data, saying, “For children without a serious medical condition, the danger of severe Covid is so low as to be difficult to quantify. For children with such a condition, the danger is higher but still lower than many people believe. The risk of long Covid among children — a source of fear among many parents — also appears to be very low.” 

Moderna, Johnson & Johnson Push for Boosters Again

On Tuesday pharmaceutical companies Moderna and Johnson & Johnson reiterated their requests for the use of booster doses of their coronavirus vaccines in briefing documents filed with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (WaPo). Moderna recommended a booster shot for older adults, high-risk adults, and those with jobs that increase their chances of exposure. The company said the booster is geared towards preventing breakthrough infections in vaccinated individuals but also cited “real world evidence of reduced effectiveness against the Delta variant.” (NYT). Johnson & Johnson recommended a booster dose for adults to be given at least six months after the initial shot, but said it could be given as early as two months later. The booster dose is intended to increase protection against current and future variants, the company said.

Bonus Read: “What the Future May Hold for the Coronavirus and Us,” (NYT).

Around the World

IMF Downgrades Outlook in Global Growth

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) slightly downgraded its outlook for the global recovery from the pandemic due to supply-chain disruptions and continued inequity in vaccine access. “In its latest World Economic Outlook being released Tuesday, the IMF foresees global growth this year of 5.9 percent, compared with its projection in July of 6 percent,” writes Politico. For advanced economies, growth will amount to 5.2% this year while low-income developing countries will see growth of only 3%. This “dangerous divergence in economic prospects across countries," the IMF said, “remains a major concern.” The IMF attributed the divergence to the disparities in vaccine access (WSJ). 

North America

U.S. to Reopen Canada and Mexico Borders for Fully Vaccinated Travelers

Starting in November, the Biden administration will lift travel restrictions for fully vaccinated travelers at the borders with Canada and Mexico. People who provide proof of vaccination and are going to visit family or friends or shop in the U.S. will be permitted to enter, administration officials said on Tuesday (NYT). Unvaccinated travelers will continue to be banned from crossing the borders with Mexico or Canada. The announcement comes just weeks after officials said vaccinated overseas foreigners would be allowed to enter the country. The U.S. had closed its borders for almost 19 months. 

Europe

Russia’s Daily Coronavirus Deaths Hit Another Record High

On Tuesday Russia recorded its highest number of coronavirus deaths in a single day since the start of the pandemic, with 973 fatalities reported (Moscow Times). The country has set a record high for daily deaths for 10 of the last 14 days due to a fourth wave of the virus. The official death toll since the beginning of the pandemic stands at 218,345 deaths, which is the highest in Europe. A number of regions have imposed vaccine mandates in an attempt to increase vaccination rates and slow the spread of the virus. Only 31% of Russia’s population is fully vaccinated.

British Government’s Pandemic Response Was a Historic Failure, Say Lawmakers

In a new report about the government’s early response to the coronavirus pandemic, British lawmakers said it was “one of the most important public health failures the United Kingdom has ever experienced.” The 150-page report, which was the result of a year-long inquiry by two committees of the House of Commons, lists dozens of failures on the part of the British government. These failures, according to the report, “led to many thousands of deaths which could have been avoided.” The committees responsible for the inquiry and the report interviewed more than 50 witnesses, reviewed over 400 written submissions, and made 38 recommendations to authorities (WaPo). The lawmakers concluded that “decisions on lockdowns and social distancing during the early weeks of the pandemic — and the advice that led to them — rank as one of the most important public health failures the United Kingdom has ever experienced, despite the UK counting on some of the best expertise available anywhere in the world, and despite having an open, democratic system that allowed plentiful challenge.”

Violent Anti-Vaccination Protests in Rome Spark Calls to Ban Neo-Fascist Movements

A neo-fascist group called Forza Nuova (New Power) led protests in Rome on Saturday where demonstrators trashed a union building and attached a hospital emergency room. The clashes resulted in 38 police officers injured and 12 protestors arrested (Politico). The demonstrations were sparked by the introduction of a mandatory health pass for all private and public sector workers that comes into force on Friday but the Forza Nuova group has been using the pandemic to gain political capital by infiltrating violent anti-vaccine and anti-mask protests since the beginning of lockdowns. Now, the Italian government is under pressure to ban neo-fascist movements like those that took part in the protest over the weekend. On Monday, Italy’s Democratic Party filed a motion in parliament calling for the government to dissolve neo-fascist groups, saying the violence represented “an attack on democracy,” adding violence “as a method of political struggle can never be tolerated.”

Business Travel Restarts Across Europe

Europeans have taken to the skies again for business travel and airlines have added more flights to key destinations across the continent (WSJ). Corporate trips in Europe were 49% of what they were in 2019, according to travel-analytics company ForwardKeys. In August, business travel in Europe had risen to 50.9% of pre-pandemic levels. High vaccination rates in most European countries and the EU’s Digital Covid Certificate, which provides proof of vaccination, recent negative test, or recent recovery from Covid-19, have restored confidence in travel for many corporations. 

Bonus Read: “Sydney starts to live with covid after 106-day lockdown. First stop: The pub.” (WaPo).

U.S. Government & Politics

Amid Pandemic, U.S. Sees Record Revenue Surge

In the fiscal year that just ended, the United States saw a record surge of 18% in its tax revenue, despite the pandemic (Politico). It is the largest annual increase since 1977. Politico writes, “That translates into $627 billion more than in 2020, according to the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, which estimates that, for the first time, total government revenues topped $4 trillion.” The surge may reflect the particular dynamics of the pandemic-era economy. Politico explains, “It is highly unusual, though, for the government to see a big wave of revenue in the wake of an economic downturn. Typically, receipts crash following recessions because, as people’s incomes fall, they owe less to the Treasury. The coronavirus downturn was much more bifurcated, however, with higher-income people, who pay most federal taxes, doing far better than low earners.”

Texas Bans Vaccine Mandates

On Monday, Texas’ Republican Governor Greg Abbott issued an executive order banning vaccine mandates in the state, including mandates put in place by private businesses (WaPo). Prior orders had already banned mandates on the part of the government. The new order sets up a clash with the Biden administration and many major companies with offices in Texas. The Washington Post writes, “Abbott’s move puts him at odds with some large corporations and with the Biden administration, which last month announced plans to require all employers with 100 or more workers to adopt vaccine mandates or testing regimens. A number of large private companies in Texas have issued mandates.” Among those companies is Dallas-based Southwest Airlines, Dallas-based AT&T, and Houston based Hewlett Packard Enterprise. Southwest Airlines for its part says it is still going ahead with its mandate (Politico). The company told Politico, “Federal action supersedes any state mandate or law, and we would be expected to comply with the President's Order to remain compliant as a federal contractor.” The Post describes the ban’s approach, writing, “Violators will face a fine up to $1,000, according to the order, which will remain in effect until the Republican-dominated Texas legislature passes a law that formalizes it, Abbott said. The ban covers any person who objects to vaccination ‘for any reason of personal conscience, based on a religious belief, or for medical reasons, including prior recovery from COVID-19.’” Governor Abbott had previously opposed mask mandates as well though he has encouraged people to get vaccinated.

New Jersey Governor’s Race Puts Pandemic Policy in Spotlight

New Jersey’s governor’s race culminating in a November 2 election is putting pandemic policy in the spotlight and may provide a window into whether Republicans will be able to capitalize on opposition to pandemic policies to gain political power, the New York Times reports (NYT). New Jersey’s Democratic Governor Phillip Murphy, who has mandated masks for grade school students and children aged two and older in day care faces Republican Jack Ciattarelli. Ciattarelli has picked up on opposition to Murphy’s policies sending a fundraising email reading, “This is unconstitutional, un-American and has no scientific backing” despite the policies aligning with CDC recommendations. Leonard Lance, a Republican who lost his seat as a congressman from New Jersey in 2018, said of the race, “The takeaway will be: Are we competitive or not?”

While the state will provide a glimpse into the question of how competitive Republicans are and the power of opposing mandates, New Jersey is still a challenging environment for Republicans. The state voted for Biden over Trump by 16 points and the Times writes, “Voters surveyed in polls continued to give Mr. Murphy some of his highest marks for the way he has responded to the pandemic, and he has said he believed it was one of the most defining issues separating him and Mr. Ciattarelli.” Meanwhile, Democrats do not necessarily see the mandates as a liability even as key figures identify the issue as a critical one. Saily Avelenda, executive director of New Jersey’s Democratic State Committee, told the Times, “It’s the issue that’s most affecting everybody, and it’s affecting everybody in real time,” but added, “People are genuinely terrified of turning New Jersey backward to a Florida or a Texas in Covid response.”

Despite Hundreds of Deaths, Vaccination a Hard Sell Among Police

The New York Times reports that despite hundreds of deaths, many police officers remain hostile to vaccination (NYT). The Times notes that the Officer Down Memorial Page records more than 460 officer deaths from Covid, and writes that it makes “the coronavirus by far the most common cause of duty-related deaths in 2020 and 2021. More than four times as many officers have died from Covid-19 as from gunfire in that period.” Yet many police departments have faced difficulty in getting their officers vaccinated, leading some to consider mandates. However, the Times writes that where such proposals have emerged, “officers and their unions have loudly pushed back, in some cases threatening resignations or flooding systems with requests for exemptions.” The Times notes that while many cities seek to mandate vaccination, police often have substantial leverage, writing, “Many police departments have an abundance of job openings and a dearth of qualified applicants. And city leaders say they do not want to risk a mass departure of officers at a time when homicides have surged nationally.”

Bonus Read: “‘The president’s decline is alarming’: Biden trapped in coronavirus malaise,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

With Pandemic-Era Leverage, Record Numbers of Workers Quit 

On Tuesday, the Department of Labor released data showing that 4.3 million people, constituting about 2.9% of the entire American workforce quit their jobs in August (WaPo, CNN). These numbers constitute a record high and follow a prior record high set in April, which was itself nearly matched in July. The Washington Post breaks down the data, writing, “The ‘quits’ numbers include about 892,000 workers in restaurants, bars and hotels, as well as 721,000 workers in retail. An additional 706,000 employees in professional business services and 534,000 workers in health care and social assistance also left jobs.” The record number of people quitting reflects the poor conditions many face including long hours during the pandemic. However, it also reflects the increased leverage workers have enjoyed during the pandemic. The country is seeing record openings alongside the record number of people quitting. The Post writes, “Employers in many industries, including hotels, restaurants and construction, have been complaining about difficulty hiring workers after the pandemic upended the labor market and revealed the precarity of many low-wage jobs.” 

Office Workers Returning at Highest Rate of the Pandemic

The Wall Street Journal reports that while the United States did not see a widely expected surge in people returning to offices after Labor Day, workers are now returning at the highest rates of the pandemic as Covid cases decline (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The number of workers returning to traditional office space has been edging higher since the week of Labor Day, when an average of 31% of the workforce was back in the 10 major cities monitored by Kastle Systems. The average hit 35% during the week that ended Oct. 1 and 36% during the week that ended Oct. 8, a new high during the pandemic period, said the security company that tracks access-card swipes.” Meanwhile, many companies are setting return dates for their workers including BlackRock Inc., Whirlpool Corp., and Lions Gate Entertainment. Lions Gate Chief Executive Jon Feltheimer wrote to employees, “There are things we can accomplish together in the office that we can’t do remotely.” Even with office returns happening at a record rate, the expectations of the Spring are not being met. The Journal writes, “return figures are still modest compared with the lofty expectations of the spring, when rising vaccination rates led many companies to say that a majority of their employees would be back at their desks at least part of the time in the early fall. Manhattan employers projected that 62% of their workers would be in the office by September, according to a survey released in June by the Partnership for New York City. The spread of the Delta variant changed that.”

Amazon Loosens Return to Work Policy

On Monday, Amazon announced that it was loosening its plan to require workers to return to the office and will adopt a policy that allows teams to make their own determinations about what is required (NYT, WaPo). The New York Times explains, “In March, Amazon told employees that it wanted to return to an “office centric” culture. It backtracked this summer, saying most corporate employees would need to be in an office at least three days a week. A plan to return to the office by September was pushed to January as the Delta variant of the coronavirus took hold.” Now, in a message to employees also available online, Amazon’s Chief Executive Andy Jassy explained the new policy, stating, “Instead of specifying that people work a baseline of three days a week in the office, we’re going to leave this decision up to individual teams.” The new policy foresees that many workers will work remotely indefinitely, and comes as many companies are delaying their planned reopenings.

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “Madison Avenue Landlords Hope for Revival as Local Residents Return,” (WSJ).

Despite Overall Decline in Office Leasing, Tech Companies Still Leasing Seattle Office Space

Even as office space leasing fell across the United States, tech companies are buying up office space in Seattle, the New York Times reports (NYT). The Times writes, “In 2020, U.S. office leasing activity fell 36 percent from the year before, according to the industry research group CBRE, as offices closed and employees were sent home to work remotely. But in the Seattle region, technology companies gobbled up more space than they had the previous year.” Seattle topped the 2020 market, “surpassing the San Francisco Bay Area for the first time since 2013, as well as tech hubs like Atlanta, New York, Washington and Austin, Texas. Among the 100 largest technology leases, 14 were in the Seattle area, totaling 3.4 million square feet, about 85 percent more space than in Manhattan, the No. 2 market on the list.” 

Bonus Read: “Across America, students are back in school. It’s working — but it’s weird,” (WaPo).

Analysis & Arguments

Former CDC Director Tom Frieden argues it is time to break up Moderna and Pfizer’s duopoly over vaccine technology (WaPo).

Alex MacGillis writes on lessons from Germany’s pandemic response (NYT).

Emily Dreyfuss examines how masks change children’s interactions (Atlantic).

Dissent hosts a roundtable on how Covid has changed academia (Dissent).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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