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THE INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL TRADE
A MESSAGE FROM THE DIRECTOR
IIT’s November newsletter contains a selection of policy briefs and op-eds looking ahead to both the post-Trump and post-COVID landscape.
In our lead policy brief Mike Humphrey focuses on policies for a green recovery in Australia during the post-COVID recovery phase. He argues that the crisis provides a once-in-a-generation opportunity to rebuild for a greener 21st century, which will also be crucial for trading relations given the growing calls for sustainable trade to be baked into future trade agreements, particularly by the incoming Biden Administration and the European Union.
The second policy brief asks: ‘What does a Biden administration mean for US trade policy?’ IIT Visiting Fellow and former DFAT official Milton Churche assesses Biden’s plan to rebuild US supply chains, arguing that it provides a window into the mindsets shaping the new administration’s plans for trade.
Staying with the topic of supply chains, IIT Visiting Fellow and former OECD Director of Trade and Agriculture, Ken Ash, argues in his op-ed that building more resilient supply chains post-COVID requires understanding the incentives that drove the current structure of global production and trade, and how the demand for more resilience will change those incentives. He provides a bird's eye view of the past, present and future of supply chains, that is essential reading for supply chain stakeholders.
Our final op-ed, written by Professor Richard Pomfret, assesses the issues around the UK’s proposed joining in 2021 of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.
Lastly, the Institute is delighted to announce that registration is now open for our virtual offering of Adaptive Trade Leadership in a Globalised World. The virtual course is designed to equip mid-senior business leaders with the tools they need to thrive in a fast-moving trade environment. We also share information on our global-leading postgraduate trade courses to be delivered in 2021.
Professor Peter Draper
POLICY AND ENGAGEMENT
The measures taken by the Australian Government to prevent the spread of COVID-19 resulted in a rapid reversal of 29 years of economic growth. The vast resources required to bring about a reboot of the economy provides an opportunity for policy makers to focus on supporting the already emerging opportunities for addressing Australia’s growing climate crisis by implementing policies that will enable Australia to move away from its current carbon dependency.
This reform away from carbon will prove to be as dramatic as the earlier reforms undertaken by the Hawke and Keating governments. A dramatic shift away from carbon will form the basis for Australia’s next decades of economic growth. It will also require the development of Australian technology and innovations that will be world-leading, and therefore provide new export opportunities for Australia.
By Mike Humphrey, Senior Trade and Development Advisor, Institute for International Trade
The decision made by millions of American voters in recent week's will reverberate globally, and hold particular ramifications for global trade. In that context Institute for International Trade (IIT) Visiting Fellow and former Australian trade negotiator, Milton Churche, provides a policy brief that takes a deep dive into Biden’s trade policy, and in particular his Supply Chain Plan. The brief suggests that this Plan offers a window into the trade mindset of a Biden administration, and identifies a number of potential problems therein. In response to those issues, the brief offers ideas for how America’s international partners can constructively respond to a Biden administration’s approach to trade policy.
By Milton Churche, Visiting Fellow, Institute for International Trade
BUILDING MORE RESILIENT GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS
The COVID-19 pandemic emerged in a world characterized by high trade tensions and considerable inertia across the multilateral trading system. A number of countries were moving towards plurilateral, regional and bilateral trade arrangements, and some governments were already beginning to explore ways in which they might more actively shape domestic economic activity.
The available evidence suggests that GVCs have, overall, performed well to date, responding quickly to an unprecedented surge in demand for masks and other personal protective equipment, medical services, and information, communications, and telecommunications (ICT) equipment & services, and to a considerable shift in the nature of food demand. Are GVCs perfect - no; are there vulnerabilities in supply chains that need to be addressed - yes; will GVCs have to become more resilient - yes. The real issue is not whether, but how; specifically, what are the respective roles of the private sector and of governments in building more resilient GVCs?
By Ken Ash, Visiting Fellow, Institute for International Trade & Former OECD Director of Trade and Agriculture
AUSTRALIA-UK RELATIONS AND THE CPTPP
The UK left the EU on 31 January 2020. The remainder of 2020 is a transition period during which the Withdrawal Agreement is being implemented and new arrangements negotiated. On 19 May, the British government published the UK’s Global Tariff (UKGT), which will replace the EU’s Common External Tariff on 1 January 2021. Apart from the UK-EU negotiations about future bilateral relations, the UK began trade negotiations with the USA on 5 May, with Japan on 9 June and with Australia and New Zealand on 17 June.
An interesting aspect of the UK-Japan agreement was both parties’ mention of it being a stepping-stone to UK accession to the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) in which Australia already participates.
A similar point was made during the webinar on UK-Australia relations – perhaps unsurprisingly as Australia and Japan were the leaders in concluding the eleven-member CPTPP in 2018.
By Richard Pomfret, Professor of Economics & Jean Monnet Chair Economics of European Integration, the University of Adelaide
Adaptive Trade Leadership in a Globalised World: Accepting applications for virtual delivery in 2021!
This world-class collaboration between the Institute for International Trade, Global Trade Professionals Alliance (GTPA) and The University of Sussex (UoS) is designed to equip mid-senior business leaders with a strong foundation in the dynamics of complexity and leadership, as well as the trade knowledge and key skills required to transform their leadership effectiveness, problem solving skills, and ability to respond strategically to trade issues.
Register now and secure your place in this cutting edge virtual program in 2021!
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EVENTS
‘What is the G20's role in reforming industrial subsidies?’ was the central question assessed by a panel of distinguished trade experts during the most recent webinar hosted by the Institute for International Trade, in collaboration with the Trade and Investment Research Network (TIRN).
Dr Naoise McDonagh began the discussion by presenting a co-authored Think20 policy brief that detailed the growth in protectionist policy since 2008 and went on to elaborate how the G20 can play a crucial role in mobilizing a multilateral process towards subsidy détente.
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