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May 25, 2022 - Brief Issue 327

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

One in Five Adults in the U.S. Could Develop Long Covid, Says CDC Study (Health & Science)

Monkeypox Not as Worrisome as Covid, Says Biden, European Countries Urged to Take Precautions, African Doctors See a Double Standard (Health & Science)

Global Economic Growth Hampered by Inflation (Around the World)

Beijing Steps Up Covid Enforcement (Around the World)

Hot Housing Market Challenges Efforts to Control Inflation (U.S. Economy)

Best Buy Reports Falling Sales (U.S. Economy)

FBI Reports 61 Active Shooter Incidents in 2021, Double the Pre-Pandemic Number (U.S. Society)

U.S. Birth Rate Increases Slightly, After Years of Decline (U.S. Society)

Springsteen to Tour for First Time Since 2017 (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 83,505,455 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,002,743 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 585,029,684 vaccine doses, with 77.8% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.6% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.2% have received at least one dose, and 76.5% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 46.6% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 20.5% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 526,810,790 cases of coronavirus, with 6,280,692 deaths.

Bonus Read: “Where Death Rates Rose the Most During the Pandemic,” (NYT).

One in Five Adults in the U.S. Could Develop Long Covid, Says CDC Study

A large new study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that one in five adult Covid-19 survivors under the age of 65 has experienced one health condition that could be considered long Covid (NYT). In patients over the age of 65 the number is even higher, at one in four patients experiencing at least one health condition linked to long Covid. The agency recommended “routine assess­ment for post-Covid conditions among persons who survive Covid-19.” The New York Times writes that “in both age groups, Covid patients had twice the risk of uninfected people of developing respiratory symptoms and lung problems, including pulmonary embolism, the study found. Post-Covid patients aged 65 and older were at greater risk than the younger group of developing kidney failure, neurological conditions and most mental health conditions.” The study looked at medical records of over two million people to compare the records of those who had had Covid and those who had not. The findings show that there could be long-term repercussions for society as a whole and the authors of the report noted that post-Covid health conditions could “affect a patient’s ability to contribute to the work force and might have economic consequences for survivors and their dependents.” They added that “care requirements might place a strain on health services” in “communities that experience heavy Covid-19 case surges.”

Monkeypox Not as Worrisome as Covid, Says Biden, European Countries Urged to Take Precautions, African Doctors See a Double Standard

U.S. President Joe Biden said on Monday that he doesn’t believe an outbreak of monkeypox poses as much of a risk as the Covid-19 pandemic has. "We have had this monkeypox in large numbers in the past. We have vaccines to take care of it," Biden said during a visit to Tokyo (CNN). "I just don't think it rises to the level of the kind of concern that existed with Covid-19." He said “people should be careful,” however. 

Biden’s comments come as European countries were urged to take extra precautions to contain outbreaks of monkeypox from Europe’s disease control body, the European Centers for Disease Control (ECDC). In a statement on Monday, the ECDC said that countries should update their contact-tracing mechanisms and diagnostic capacity in addition to checking the supplies of smallpox vaccines, antivirals, and personal protective equipment. Stella Kyriakides, the European commissioner for health and food safety, said she was “concerned” about the rising monkeypox cases in the EU and globally, adding that “while currently the likelihood of spread in the broader population is low, the situation is evolving” (Politico). In the U.K., a total of 56 infections have been identified as of Monday, in the EU, 67 cases have been identified in nine countries: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain and Sweden.

Monkeypox was discovered fifty years ago in the Democratic Republic of Congo and causes mild illness in most people, along with blisters that clear up in a few weeks. It is known to be less transmissible than the coronavirus and there is already an effective vaccine. In Africa, countries have been battling outbreaks in recent months but African doctors note that those outbreaks did not draw global attention until the outbreaks in Europe began (WaPo). Before monkeypox was found in the West this year, the WHO said Nigeria, Cameroon, and the Central African Republic had recorded small outbreaks, but “Few seemed to care, or even notice, until people in the West started getting sick,” notes the Post, saying infectious-disease experts across Africa have taken notice of the “double standard that has emerged.”

Around the World

Global Economic Growth Hampered by Inflation

Growth in the U.S. and global economies slowed in May due to high inflation and rising interest rates, according to S&P Global surveys. Services businesses in the U.S., Europe, the U.K., and Australia all grew more slowly in May and factories in major global economies faced supply-chain disruptions related to the pandemic and the war in Ukraine, in addition to higher fuel costs and rising wages (WSJ). 

Beijing Steps Up Covid Enforcement

China’s capital, Beijing, is now punishing workplaces that flout Covid-related restrictions and has asked residents to police their own movements. The city of 22 million people has seen dozens of new cases every day since late April and has struggled to implement the government’s zero-Covid strategy (Reuters). Beijing clamped down on workplace attendance and more districts issued work-from-home guidance after some workplaces were found to be ignoring restrictions, according to state-run Xinhua News agency. "A big wind can enter even through the smallest of gaps," according to the commentary published on Wednesday.

U.S. Economy

Hot Housing Market Challenges Efforts to Control Inflation

As we have covered in prior briefs, the housing market is hot, characterized by high prices and low supply. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Federal Reserve that the hot market has complicated the Fed’s efforts to use interest rates to restrain inflation (WSJ). The Journal writes, “When the Federal Reserve set out to cool the economy and slow inflation in the past, it counted on the housing market to do much of the work. By raising interest rates, the central bank made mortgages more expensive and trimmed the number of buyers. This time, America’s red-hot housing market threatens to make the Fed’s job tougher. With so many buyers competing for so few available properties, home prices in the U.S. rose 18.8% last year, according to a home-price index maintained by S&P Dow Jones Indices and CoreLogic that measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas.” Last week, prices hit their “steepest rise in a six-month-span in decades.” Christopher Thornberg, founding partner at Beacon Economics in Los Angeles, told the Journal, “This is a market as resistant to higher interest rates as you could possibly imagine,” adding, “This is not a market that 5% interest rates are going to scare at all.” The Journal adds, “That leaves the Fed to decide how far and how fast rates need to go up to make a dent in the housing market without triggering a painful economic slowdown. Housing has been a traditional battleground in the fight against inflation because it is sensitive to interest rates and makes up a significant part of the U.S. economy.” Bonus Read: “Rising Interest Rates Concern Apartment-Building Owners, Renters,” (WSJ).

Best Buy Reports Falling Sales

On Tuesday, Best Buy told investors that its sales had fallen for the quarter ending April 30 (WSJ). The company’s CEO Corie Barry pointed to increased travel and inflationary pressures as key factors in the sales fall. The Wall Street Journal writes, “Best Buy reported earnings of $341 million for the quarter ended April 30, compared with $595 million a year earlier. The company’s revenue for the quarter fell roughly $1 billion from the previous year to $10.6 billion. Comparable sales dropped 8%, compared with a rise of 37% in the quarter a year ago. The company hadn’t released guidance for the first quarter but did say after the holiday quarter that it expected sales to fall in fiscal 2023, the retailer’s current year.”

U.S. Society

FBI Reports 61 Active Shooter Incidents in 2021, Double the Pre-Pandemic Number

On Monday, the FBI released a report recording 61 active shooter incidents in 2021, double the number in the last pre-pandemic year (WaPo). The report states, “For the period 2017-2021, active shooter incident data reveals an upward trend: the number of active shooter incidents in 2021 represents a 52.5% increase from 2020 and a 96.8% increase from 2017.” In 2019, the last pre-pandemic year, there were 30 active shooter incidents, and in 2017 there were 31, according to the report. The Washington Post writes, “For its analysis, the FBI defined an active shooting attack as one or more people killing or trying to kill people in a populated area; it left out cases deemed to be due to factors including gang violence, self-defense or ‘contained residential or domestic disputes.’” 103 people died in the 61 incidents not including shooters, according to the FBI. The Post notes, “The report also highlighted what it called ‘an emerging trend involving roving active shooters; specifically, shooters who shoot in multiple locations, either in one day or in various locations over several days.’ Nearly half the incidents in the FBI’s count — ‘approximately 27’ of them, it said — involved one person carrying out attacks in multiple places."

U.S. Birth Rate Increases Slightly, After Years of Decline

On Tuesday, the CDC’s National Vital Statistics Survey released provisional data showing that in 2021, the U.S. birth rate increased for the first time since 2014 (NYT). The birth rate increased only 1% but in addition to reversing a years long trend of decline, it also signified a reversal from a steep drop in 2020. The New York Times writes, “The figures further muddled the question of how the pandemic has affected the birthrate. Early evidence from 2020, when births dropped 4 percent from the previous year, suggested women might have been delaying pregnancy.” The birth rate was in decline before 2014 broke the trend for a year. The Times writes, “Since 2007, the birthrate in the United States had declined every year except 2014, when there was a modest increase before continuing the descent in 2015.”

Springsteen to Tour for First Time Since 2017

On Monday, Bruce Springsteen announced that he and the E Street Band would be going on tour in 2023, their first tour since 2017 (WSJ). The statement read: “Bruce Springsteen and The E Street Band will mark their return to the road in early February, 2023 with a string of to-be-announced US arena dates, followed by European stadium shows kicking off on April 28th in Barcelona and a second North American tour leg starting in August.” The announcement comes as other musicians announce tours, and as the music industry shows evidence of recovery from the pandemic’s impact. The Wall Street Journal writes, “Live Nation Entertainment Inc., which owns Ticketmaster, said concert ticket sales were up 45% as of February 2022 compared with the same period in 2019, the last full prepandemic year. As of February, the company had 30% more concerts planned for 2022 than 2019.”

Bonus Read: “The No-Brainer Cruise Vacation Gets Tricky,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Molly Jong-Fast writes on the challenges of raising teenagers during the pandemic (Atlantic).

Eren Orbey writes on how the pandemic reshaped the SATs (New Yorker).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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