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February 23, 2022 - Brief Issue 289

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Covid Could Create Cardiovascular Crisis (Health & Science)

New Trial Will Test Reduced Booster Doses (Health & Science)

Scientists Look for Coronavirus in Animals (Health & Science)

UK Ends all Restrictions, Queen Tests Positive (Around the World)

Australia Reopens Borders for First Time in Almost Two Years (Around the World)

Ireland Drops Most Restrictions (Around the World)

Canada’s Trudeau Wins Emergencies Act Vote (Around the World)

Hong Kong Mandates Testing for All 7.5 Million People (Around the World)

Hawaii and Puerto Rico Keep Their Indoor Mask Mandates, Bucking Nationwide Trend (U.S. Government & Politics)

Democrats Push for Paid Sick Leave (U.S. Government & Politics)

Pentagon Approves Trucker Protest-Related National Guard Request (U.S. Government & Politics)

Biden’s Proposed Science and Health Agency Faces Republican Opposition (U.S. Government & Politics)

Vaccine Advocates Urge Biden to Break Deadlock on WTO Vaccine IP Waiver (U.S. Government & Politics)

2021 Saw Record Home Price Growth (U.S. Economy)

White Collar Workers See Pay Increases (U.S. Economy)

The Economic Recovery Is Not Raising American Spirits (U.S. Economy)

Paul Farmer, Public Health Physician and Humanitarian, Has Died at 62 (U.S. Society)

Home Depot Sees Sustained Growth (U.S. Society)

Fox News Host Neil Cavuto Contracts Covid A Second Time (U.S. Society)

Dry Cleaning Industry Hit Hard by Pandemic (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 78,649,877 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 939,202 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 550,924,900 vaccine doses, with 76.2% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 64.8% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 87.7% have received at least one dose, and 74.8% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 43.4% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 428,190,863 cases of coronavirus, with 5,909,581 deaths.

Covid Could Create Cardiovascular Crisis

The long-term effects of Covid-19 are still unknown, but American scientists and doctors are seeing mysterious health conditions affecting people weeks or months after a coronavirus infection, one of which is cardiovascular disease (WaPo). According to a study published in Nature Medicine this month that looked at the health records of more than 153,000 U.S. veterans found that their risk of cardiovascular disease of all types increased substantially the year following infection, even if they had a mild case of Covid-19. While the population study was mostly white and male, the patterns held in analysis of women and people of color, too. Health experts say that once they factor in the delay of medical care, more sedentary lifestyles and poorer eating habits and the general stress caused by the pandemic, there may be millions of new cardiac cases related to the virus. “We are expecting a tidal wave of cardiovascular events in the coming years from direct and indirect causes of covid,” said Donald M. Lloyd-Jones, president of the American Heart Association.

New Trial Will Test Reduced Booster Doses

On Tuesday, a new international medical trial began that aims to test the efficacy of reduced booster doses with the hopes of being able to distribute existing coronavirus vaccine supplies more widely. The trial, which is being run by the Murdoch Children’s Research Institute and the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), one of the leaders of Covax, the World Health Organization-led program for vaccine equity, will take place in Australia, Indonesia, and Mongolia (WaPo). It will include up to 3,300 adults who have received the first two doses of a coronavirus vaccine and will judge if  “a reduced booster dose would improve, broaden, and prolong the immune response following a primary series of COVID-19 vaccination, while also putting less strain on first dose supplies,” according to the press release. The scientists also hope to find that a reduced booster dose is easier on the body, saying that while “fractional doses could provide the opportunity for great savings for countries, they are also likely to produce less side effects, which will improve the acceptability of booster doses.”

Scientists Look for Coronavirus in Animals

Researchers knew that it was likely the coronavirus that has been causing a global pandemic would spread to animals, but they weren’t sure which animals would be most vulnerable or how fast it would spread. Some health experts are concerned that the virus could spread to an animal population and mutate before spreading to other species or back to humans so identifying which species are at risk became critical. Barbara Han, a disease ecologist at the Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, and her team built an artificial intelligence model to try to predict which animals would be infected next (NYT). They’ve found that cats and dogs in homes and mink on farms were infected, along with zoo animals, some of which were expected, like tigers and lions, and others that were surprising, like the coatimundi. Last fall, scientists found that the coronavirus was widespread among white-taled deer in Iowa. But so far, Han said there is no reason to panic: “Really, humans are infecting the animals, and now animals are sick and some of them are dying,” Dr. Han said.

Bonus read: “Overwhelmed by chaos and uncertainty, families with kids under 5 are on a vaccine roller coaster,” (WaPo).

Around the World

UK Ends all Restrictions, Queen Tests Positive

On Monday, England ended all Covid restrictions, leading the way among many nations in the hunt for normalcy. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced on Monday that soon people who test positive for the virus would no longer need to isolate, news that was not welcomed by the many people in the country who are immunocompromised or otherwise part of a vulnerable group (NYT). Even with case numbers falling, lawmakers from the opposition Labour Party and some public health experts have criticized Prime Minister Boris Johnson’s decision as reckless; the country reported over 1,000 deaths last week (WaPo). To further dampen the mood, Queen Elizabeth II tested positive for the coronavirus on Sunday and is experiencing “mild cold like symptoms.” She canceled a virtual event on Tuesday because she is still sick. The 95-year-old queen has been fully vaccinated against the coronavirus (Reuters).

Australia Reopens Borders for First Time in Almost Two Years

Australia reopened its borders on Monday and the country was expecting to receive over 50 international flights within the first 24 hours after reopening (WaPo). The borders had been closed to nearly all visitors for the first 18 months of the pandemic (CNN). Coronavirus cases were down almost 20% in the past week and continue to be far below the peak in January.

Ireland Drops Most Restrictions

On Tuesday, Ireland announced it will drop most of its remaining Covid-19-related restrictions starting Feb. 28. The country’s wave of Omicron infections is finally ebbing and people will no longer be required to wear masks and the national testing and tracing program will be scaled back (Reuters). “The current epidemiological profile of COVID-19 in Ireland is broadly stable" the government said in a press release, and "while the burden on hospitals remains significant, it is relatively stable".

Canada’s Trudeau Wins Emergencies Act Vote

In Canada the House of Commons on Monday approved the Emergencies Act put forth by Prime Minister Justin Trudeau last week with a vote of 185-151 (Politico). Even though the streets around Parliament Hill have been cleared of trucks and protesters, Trudeau told Canadians that the state of emergency isn’t over, saying “There continues to be real concerns about the coming days,” and that,  “we will continue to evaluate every single day whether or not it is time and we are able to lift this state of emergency.” The Conservatives and Bloc Québécois voted against use of the sweeping enforcement measures and accused the prime minister of overreach.

Hong Kong Mandates Testing for All 7.5 Million People 

Hong Kong will mandate coronavirus testing for its entire population–all 7.5 million people–and will turn schools and other facilities into testing sites beginning in March. Groups will be staggered and tested according to birth dates and noncompliance will be punished with a fine, the government said (WaPo). Carrie Lam, Hong Kong’s chief executive, did not provide full details on the implementation of the strategy, but did say that every resident would need to be tested three times. “We are talking about an emergency,” Lam said. “Given the current circumstances, we must do it, even if there are legal constraints. This is the mindset we need to have if we are fighting a battle.” Strict social distancing restrictions will continue through the end of April and flights from nine countries, including the U.S., will still be prohibited (NYT). The number of new infections reached 7,000 on Monday.  Bonus Read: “China’s ‘Zero-Covid’ Policy Holds Lessons for Other Nations,” (WSJ).

U.S. Government & Politics

Hawaii and Puerto Rico Keep Their Indoor Mask Mandates, Bucking Nationwide Trend

Puerto Rico and Hawaii are bucking a nationwide, bipartisan trend, by keeping their mask mandates even as most states and localities remove mask mandates (NYT). The New York Times reports, “Indoor mask mandates in every state but Hawaii have expired, or are scheduled to be lifted, as the United States nears its third year of the pandemic. Puerto Rico, the largest U.S. territory, also has no plans to lift its mask mandate.” The Times also notes that “Fewer than 10 states still require masks in K-12 schools” despite federal guidance that teachers and students wear masks. Hawaii’s status as an exception does not appear to be the result of wrestling with major outbreaks. The Times notes that Hawaii “has had among the country’s fewest cases per capita over the course of the pandemic, has seen its daily average of new cases plummet about 70 percent over the past two weeks, according to a New York Times database. Hospitalizations are down about 50 percent over the same time period, and deaths have decreased around 10 percent.” Hawaii Governor David Ige said that he is looking into when Hawaii might remove its indoor mask mandate, but also attributed Hawaii’s low case and death numbers to such policies, stating, “Hawaii ranks second in the nation when it comes to Covid deaths, in part because of the indoor mask requirement and other measures that have proven successful in protecting our community from this potentially deadly virus” (KTV).

Democrats Push for Paid Sick Leave

Democratic lawmakers are pushing multiple efforts aimed at providing paid sick leave, including a bill to include paid sick leave as part of a broader spending bill funding the government, and an alternative effort to provide it via a separate bill (NYT). The efforts have White House support, and Senators Patty Murray (D-WA) and Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) released a statement last month reading in part, “We are exploring every possible path to make progress on paid leave this Congress.” The New York Times writes that, “unlike in 2020, there is no federally required paid sick leave for workers — and none at all for the one-fifth of workers who don’t receive it from their employers. Now, as Omicron recedes and many restrictions are being lifted, and as more of the country begins to treat Covid as an unavoidable part of life, some Democratic lawmakers and others are trying to revive paid leave for Covid-related reasons. In January, 2.3 percent of the American work force was home sick, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — three times that of a typical prepandemic month.” Vicki Shabo, senior fellow for paid leave policy and strategy at New America, told the Times, “As we enter the endemic phase of Covid, it’s a critical tool in returning to normal.” Disclosure: New America’s Better Life Lab has long argued for paid leave. See some of their work here.

Pentagon Approves Trucker Protest-Related National Guard Request

On Tuesday, the Pentagon said it was considering a request to deploy the National Guard to provide assistance ahead of expected trucker protests in D.C. this week (Politico). Later in the day, the Pentagon approved the request (CNN). The Pentagon received the request for support from the D.C. government and the Capitol Police. Pentagon Press Secretary John Kirby stated, “The Department is analyzing a request for assistance from the US Capitol Police and the DC Homeland Security and Emergency Management Agency.” He added, “Those agencies have asked for National Guard personnel to provide support at traffic control points in and around the District to help the USCP and DC government address potential challenges stemming from possible disruptions at key traffic arteries.” Politico writes, “Several trucker convoys protesting coronavirus restrictions are slated to begin arriving in the D.C. area this week and continue into early March. The protests come after truckers in Canada occupied the capital city of Ottawa for three weeks to oppose vaccine mandates, which ended in widespread arrests and towing by police.”

Biden’s Proposed Science and Health Agency Faces Republican Opposition

A Biden administration proposal to create a multibillion-dollar new agency tasked with addressing a range of health care issues is facing new Republican opposition (Politico). Politico writes, “Bipartisan support for one of President Joe Biden’s pet health projects is crumbling as Republicans home in on spending and Democrats split over its structure.” Part of the issue for the proposed Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health has come as Biden announced that former National Institutes of Health Director Francis Collins would serve as a science adviser. Politico explains, “installing Collins may actually complicate efforts to create the Advanced Research Projects Agency for Health because he, like Lander, is a strong proponent of housing the agency in NIH — and an increasing number of lawmakers are against that idea.” A Republican leadership aide told Politico, “Every American agrees we must lead the world in scientific research,” a Republican leadership aide, who is close to ARPA-H discussions,” adding, “But based on member conversations I’ve witnessed, the majority of Republicans in the House worry ARPA-H will become another slush fund for Fauci-minded scientists — unchecked scientists who will use more government money just to curate their public image rather than get results.” Politico reports that Democrats they spoke with, however, have downplayed the extent of opposition.

Vaccine Advocates Urge Biden to Break Deadlock on WTO Vaccine IP Waiver

On Monday, several vaccine advocacy organizations sent a letter to President Biden, urging him to work to break an ongoing deadlock at the World Trade Organization over the provision of a temporary intellectual property rights waiver for Covid-19 vaccines (Politico). The letter signed by more than 80 groups including Oxfam America and Public Citizen reads in part, “We write to urge you to recognize the greater-than-ever need to dramatically increase the global production, affordability and equitable distribution of Covid vaccines, tests and treatments.” The letter notes that “At the time of this writing, nearly half of humanity is still not fully vaccinated — including almost 95 percent of people in low-income nations” even as “the very definition of ‘fully vaccinated’ is itself shifting.” Politico writes, “Biden took a big step last May toward South Africa and India’s position by endorsing a waiver of intellectual property rights just for vaccines. But the European Union continues to resist the proposal, arguing that current WTO rules already allow countries to waive IP protections in health emergencies and that logistical factors are the real barriers to the widespread production and distribution of vaccines.” Politico summarizes the letter’s requests, noting “the advocacy groups called on Biden to put pressure on the EU to drop its opposition by directing U.S. trade negotiators to issue a joint text with South Africa and India that would temporarily waive intellectual property protections on all Covid-19 vaccines, therapeutics and diagnostics. Then Biden should up the ante by calling for a special emergency meeting of the General Counsel within 30 days to approve the proposal, the groups say.” 

Bonus Read: “Biden wants billions more in Covid funding. Lawmakers aren't eager to spend big — again,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

2021 Saw Record Home Price Growth

New data from the  S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index released on Tuesday shows that 2021 saw record growth in home prices (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports that the index, “which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 18.8% in the 12 months that ended in December, unchanged from the prior month. The calendar-year increase was the highest since the index began in 1987.” As we have covered in prior briefs, home sales surged during the pandemic, resulting in an increase in prices. Although price growth hit a record in 2021, the Journal notes, “Home-price growth has decelerated in recent months and is expected to slow further in 2022 as mortgage rates continue to increase.” Selma Hepp, deputy chief economist at CoreLogic, told the Journal, “The surge in mortgage rates is likely to take a bite out of the demand for housing, mostly among first-time buyers and those with limited budgets.” Also on Tuesday the Federal Housing Finance Agency released its own measure of home price growth finding a 17.6% increase in December 2021 compared to December 2020.

White Collar Workers See Pay Increases

White collar workers are seeing their pay rise, likely in part due to tight labor markets as a result of the pandemic (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Pay for finance, information and professional employees rose 4.4% in January from a year earlier, outpacing 4% wage growth for all workers, according to the Atlanta Fed’s wage tracker.” The Journal notes that Labor Department data shows that “Wages in the professional and business services sector—which includes jobs in management, law and engineering—rose 0.8% in January from a month earlier. That was well above a 0.1% wage increase in leisure and hospitality.” Yet the Journal cautions, “Annual inflation is running above 7%, the highest in 40 years, meaning rising prices are wiping out wage gains for many. Workers could start to see their extra dollars go further if inflation cools while wage growth remains elevated.” The Journal points to the role of a tight labor market amid many people quitting their jobs, writing, “Economic research suggests there is a tight link between rates of worker resignations and wage gains. About 3.6% of workers in professional and business services quit their jobs in December, up from 2.8% at the start of 2021. That suggests wage growth in some white-collar roles could continue to run hot.”

The Economic Recovery Is Not Raising American Spirits

The Wall Street Journal reports that even as the economy has recovered from the pandemic, Americans remain unsatisfied in part due to the particular character of the recovery (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Americans normally are happiest when the economy is growing rapidly. The unusual nature of today’s recovery has upended that pattern. Last year was the best year for job growth on record. Workers are commanding solid wage gains. Booming home and stock-market values have lifted household wealth to records. But the record job growth followed record job losses in 2020, due to the Covid-19 pandemic and lockdowns. Inflation at 7.5% is eating up those wage gains for many Americans. And the unsettling effects of the pandemic, such as product shortages, are still playing out.” A December Gallup poll found that economic confidence is at a pandemic-low similar to the views around the 2008 economic crash. And for the first time, more Americans report being “not too happy” than report being “very happy” according to a survey conducted by NORC at the University of Chicago. The Journal further notes, “The latest phase of the pandemic has further eroded faith in leaders and institutions, leading to feelings of frustration, aimlessness and helplessness, polling shows, even among some who are doing well in today’s economy.”

U.S. Society

Paul Farmer, Public Health Physician and Humanitarian, Has Died at 62

The world-renowned global health innovator Paul Farmer died on Monday in his sleep at the age of 62. The New York Times writes that the “physician, anthropologist and humanitarian who gained global acclaim for his work delivering high-quality health care to some of the world’s poorest people.” He believed in the social causes of illness and argued that it “must be addressed through social structures.” Farmer helped found Partners in Health, a global health organization that responds to illness of all kinds such as tuberculosis, HIV, Ebola, and AIDS. Farmer, who often lived in the communities he helped treat, died Monday in Rwanda, “where he had been teaching for the past few weeks at the university he co-founded. A source close to Farmer said he had been in Rwanda for the past several weeks teaching at the University of Global Health Equity, the medical school that he helped found” writes NPR. CNN writes that “During the pandemic, Farmer recognized that the US public health system didn't have enough workers to do effective contact tracing to stop the spread of Covid-19. He partnered with the state of Massachusetts to bolster its work force and expanded to bring contact tracing to the Navajo Nation and Mexico.” Farmer holds an immense legacy in the field of public health and is survived by his wife and three children.

Home Depot Sees Sustained Growth

Home Depot, the major home-improvement retailer, has seen massive and sustained growth in sales and earnings since the pandemic began. The Wall Street Journal writes: “Between mid-2020 and mid-2021, the retailer posted four straight quarters of comparable sales growth above 20%, fueled by consumers’ surging demand for home-improvement goods as the public-health crisis’s social disruptions left people spending more time in their houses.” Even as people return to a lifestyle not centered around home living, this shift in priorities has been sustained. Home Depot secured over $150 billion in annual sales this past fiscal year. Throughout the pandemic, Home Depot has supplied materials for peak pandemic-era DIY projects and more recently, as “the pandemic’s acute early phases subsided, Home Depot saw sales to professional contractors grow, with homeowners becoming more comfortable bringing workers into their homes again.”

Fox News Host Neil Cavuto Contracts Covid A Second Time

Fox News host Neil Cavuto announced Monday the reason for his recent absence from the studio: he had contracted Covid a second time. This time, the virus landed him in the ICU. Cavuto has announced he is fully vaccinated. He has also been an advocate for vaccination and cited his compromised immune system as the reason for getting the virus again. The Washington Post reports: “On Monday, he once again gave credit to the vaccine for his recovery and debunked conspiracy theories that it was the jab that got him sick. ‘The vaccine didn’t cause that,’ said Cavuto, 63. ‘… My very compromised immune system did.’” The New York Times reports Cavuto is in the 3 percent of people most vulnerable and that the vaccine, while helping save lives, does not give full benefits to this portion of the population.

Dry Cleaning Industry Hit Hard by Pandemic 

Dry cleaners across the Washington D.C. area and in other large metro areas have been hit hard by the pandemic (WaPo). Peter Blake, the executive director of the Mid-Atlantic Association of Cleaners, told the Washington Post that 10 to 15% of the industry is already closed, a number he said could double over the course of 2022. The Post reports that many immigrant families, and in particular Korean-American families, found work within the dry cleaning industry due to limited language qualifications and an already existing supportive community to train and help with business formation. The Post notes, “even before the pandemic, many of those independent stores were bracing for change: Their U.S.-born children were choosing not to take over the family business, opting instead for white-collar fields. Even in buttoned-up Washington, offices were loosening their norms for professional attire and lessening the need for professional cleaning.”

Analysis & Arguments

The Intercept writes on transparency after they received 292 fully redacted pages from the National Institutes of Health in response to a FOIA request (Intercept).

Daniel Strauss writes on the clash between Trump and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (New Republic).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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