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July 20, 2022 - Brief Issue 350

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Cases Rising with Most Transmissible Version of the Virus, BA.5 (Health & Science)

CDC Recommends Novavax as Option for Unvaccinated (Health & Science)

Some Schools Race to Improve Air Quality, Others Still Behind (Health & Science)

Scientists Say Nasal Vaccines Deserve More Attention, Funding (Health & Science)

Across Europe, Covid Cases Triple and Hospitalizations Double (Around the World)

China Lockdowns Continue Even as Economy Worsens; Officials Apologize for Heavy Handed Measures (Around the World)

CDC Stops Tracking Cruise Ship Covid Cases (U.S. Government & Politics)

January 6 Panel Chair Tests Positive, Hearing Will Proceed (U.S. Government & Politics)

Fauci Says He Will Likely Retire by End of Biden’s Current Term (U.S. Government & Politics)

Poll: Americans Don’t Expect to be Free of Covid in Their Lifetimes (U.S. Government & Politics)

Treasury Secretary Yellen Calls for Companies to Diversify Trade Away from Reliance on China (U.S. Economy)

Residential Construction Slips for a Second Month (U.S. Economy)

Report: Student Learning Returned to Normal Pace, Pandemic Deficits Remain (U.S. Society)

Births Increased for First Time Since Before Pandemic in Back Half of 2021 (U.S. Society)

Remote Work Helps Drive Interest in Manhattan Private Clubs (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 89,836,091 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,024,900 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 599,289,113 vaccine doses, with 78.5% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 67.1% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.8% have received at least one dose, and 77% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 48.1% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 28.5% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 565,276,285 cases of coronavirus, with 6,374,573 deaths.

U.S. Cases Rising with Most Transmissible Version of the Virus, BA.5

Covid-19 is surging again around the United States in what experts believe is the most transmissible version of the virus yet, BA.5. Infections are rising in at least 40 states and hospitalizations have increased by about 20% over the last two weeks. Officials are saying there is plenty of room for caution but not to be alarmed; most are hesitant to re-enact any sort of mask mandate or other restrictions. “I feel strongly that you can’t just kind of cry wolf all the time,” said Dr. Allison Arwady, the commissioner of the Chicago health department, who told the New York Times that she is waiting to see whether hospitals become strained before considering another citywide mask mandate. “I want to save the requirements around masks or updating vaccine requirements for when there’s a significant change.” Many people who experience symptoms are either testing at home or not testing at all, making public health data incomplete and unreliable, but that doesn’t mean a new wave isn’t noticeable. “You don’t have to count every raindrop to know it’s raining,” said Dr. Joseph Kanter, Louisiana’s state health officer and medical director. “And it’s pouring right now.” Bonus Read: “As BA.5 Spreads, How Long Will a Prior Covid-19 Infection Protect You?” (WSJ).

CDC Recommends Novavax as Option for Unvaccinated

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Tuesday recommended that the newly authorized vaccine from Novavax be used as an option for adults who are unvaccinated. But it is not yet authorized as a booster, meaning its uptake could be slow at first. “Dr. Rochelle Walensky, the C.D.C.’s director, signed off on the recommendation of a panel of vaccine experts that had unanimously endorsed the vaccine on Tuesday afternoon,” writes the New York Times. It was the final regulatory hurdle for the fourth Covid-19 shot authorized in the United States. Between 26 to 37 million adults have not yet received a coronavirus vaccine, according to CDC data.

Some Schools Race to Improve Air Quality, Others Still Behind

School officials across the United States are reluctant to reinstate mask-wearing when students return to classrooms this fall and instead are taking steps to improve the air quality. Ventilation has been shown to be key in fighting the spread of the virus. But according to a report by the Washington Post, schools still don’t have the right measures in place and their efforts are hampered by “strained supply chains, spiking costs and labor shortages that might have been avoidable had the control measure been emphasized by public health officials earlier in the pandemic.” The federal government allocated hundreds of millions of dollars to schools to be used to fight the virus early on in the pandemic, but most schools neglected to use the money to improve their ventilation systems due to a lack of clear guidance from the government. “They dismissed the importance of those measures because there wasn’t a lot of emphasis on them from the federal government,” said Anisa Heming, director of the Center for Green Schools at the U.S. Green Building Council. “It was a real missed opportunity.” Now, even as some school administrators have pivoted to focusing on air quality, others are still using federal funds on measures that have been proven ineffective, like plexiglass barriers and surface cleaning. 

Scientists Say Nasal Vaccines Deserve More Attention, Funding

As the pandemic continues and the limits of existing vaccines become more apparent, some scientists and researchers are calling for renewed interest and funding for nasal vaccines. Nasal vaccines induce antibody production in the mucosal tissue–the lining of the nose, throat, and mouth–right where the virus enters the body. Nasal vaccines “concentrate the immune protection in the upper airway,” Dr. Anthony Fauci, the White House’s chief medical adviser, told NBC News in an interview. In doing so, the “antibodies that are trying to protect you from having the virus enter your body, are right there on the front lines protecting you.” But scientists say the government and the public seem to have lost interest in developing these types of vaccines. “There isn’t a lot of appetite to invest in these things anymore because Operation Warp Speed is over and a lot of people think this is all done and we don’t need better vaccines,” said Florian Krammer, an immunologist at the Icahn School of Medicine at Mount Sinai in New York City. He is supporting an effort at Mount Sinai to develop a nasal vaccine. Any type of nasal vaccine remains far off in the United States, but there are numerous ones in development stages now. 

Around the World

Across Europe, Covid Cases Triple and Hospitalizations Double

On Tuesday, the World Health Organization said that coronavirus cases have tripled in the past six weeks across Europe, accounting for nearly half of all infections recorded globally. Hospitalizations also doubled but intensive care admissions remained low (AP). WHO’s Europe director, Dr. Hans Kluge, described COVID-19 as “a nasty and potentially deadly illness” that people should not underestimate. “With rising cases, we’re also seeing a rise in hospitalizations, which are only set to increase further in the autumn and winter months,” Kluge said. “This forecast presents a huge challenge to the health workforce in country after country, already under enormous pressure dealing with unrelenting crises since 2020.” 

China Lockdowns Continue Even as Economy Worsens; Officials Apologize for Heavy Handed Measures

About 264 million people in 41 cities across China are in full or partial lockdowns or living with other restrictions, according to analysts at Nomura, a Japanese bank, who reported that that figure was up from the previous week when 247 million people in 31 cities were under lockdowns (NYT). Regional and local officials have acted swiftly to try to stamp out any outbreaks under Beijing’s zero-Covid policy, but the toll it's taking on the economy was made clear earlier this week when China reported its worst quarterly performance in more than two years. Currently, lockdowns are affecting people in Tianjin, a city that is home to factories linked to Boeing and Volkswagen and a large port, for example (CNA).

In some cases, officials have gone beyond the normal strict measures and have taken a more authoritarian approach. In Southern China, officials broke into the homes of people who had been taken to a quarantine hotel to find close contacts. State media reported that 84 homes in an apartment complex in Guangzhou city were forcibly entered and searched before the doors were sealed and new locks installed. The district government apologized on Monday for the “oversimplified and violent” action following public outcry (CBS).

Bonus Read: “STATE OF FREIGHT: China’s trucking fleets hit by Covid strain BA.5 and strict driver testing, slowing global trade,” (CNBC).

U.S. Government & Politics

CDC Stops Tracking Cruise Ship Covid Cases

On Monday, the CDC posted a notice announcing that it wou no longer track Covid cases on cruise ships (WaPo). The notice read, “As of July 18, 2022, CDC’s COVID-19 Program for Cruise Ships is no longer in effect.” The Washington Post writes, “A sortable color-coded chart and spreadsheet that detailed the level of spread on ships is no longer viewable on the webpage, the agency confirmed.” A CDC spokesperson stated, “CDC has determined that the cruise industry has access to the necessary tools (e.g., cruise-specific recommendations and guidance, vaccinations, testing instruments, treatment modalities, and non-pharmaceutical interventions) to prevent and mitigate COVID-19 on board.” The Post notes that a CDC FAQ provided another reasoning, writing that the program “depended upon each cruise line having the same COVID-19 screening testing standards, which may now vary among cruise lines.”

January 6 Panel Chair Tests Positive, Hearing Will Proceed

On Tuesday, Representative Bennie Thompson (D-MS-2), who serves as the chairman of the January 6 committee announced that he tested positive for Covid (NYT, Politico, NPR). Despite Thompson’s testing positive and resultant isolation, this week’s hearing will proceed. Committee spokesperson Tim Mulvey stated, “While Chairman Thompson is disappointed with his Covid diagnosis, he has instructed the select committee to proceed with Thursday evening’s hearing.” The New York Times writes, “The next hearing, scheduled for 8 p.m. Thursday, could be the final session for the committee this summer. It is set to focus on former President Donald J. Trump and his 187 minutes of inaction as a mob of his supporters stormed the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, in an effort to stop the certification of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s Electoral College victory.”

Fauci Says He Will Likely Retire by End of Biden’s Current Term

On Monday, Chief White House Medical Advisor and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases Anthony Fauci announced that he plans to retire by the end of Biden’s current term (Politico, CNN, WaPo, NYT). Fauci stated, “By the time we get to the end of Biden's first term, I will very likely (retire).” The Washington Post writes, “Fauci’s decision to retire by 2025 was first reported by Politico. The 81-year-old official later suggested that his plans were not fully settled, telling the New York Times that he would “almost certainly” retire by 2025 and cautioning CNN not to view Monday’s news as his official retirement announcement.” Fauci told Politico  that he did not feel he could wait to retire until the pandemic was entirely over, saying, “We’re in a pattern now. If somebody says, ‘You’ll leave when we don’t have Covid anymore,’ then I will be 105. I think we’re going to be living with this.” In his interview with Politico, Fauci also commented on what he termed his “interesting relationship” with Trump, saying, “Two guys from New York, different in their opinions and their ideology, but still, two guys who grew up in the same environments of this city. I think that we are related to each other in that regard.” Fauci also predicted that he will face increased pressure and criticism after what is widely expected to be a series of Republican victories in the midterms, but said that it wasn’t driving his decision.

Poll: Americans Don’t Expect to be Free of Covid in Their Lifetimes

According to a new Ipsos/Axios poll, almost eight out of ten Americans do not expect Covid to come to an end within their lifetimes (Axios). Axios writes, “78% of respondents strongly or somewhat agreed with the statement, ‘We will never fully be rid of the coronavirus in my lifetime.’” Other findings included that only 26% percent reported being aware of the antiviral Paxlovid and that “33% of respondents said they'd be very likely to get a fourth COVID-19 booster shot if it was available.”

U.S. Economy

Bonus Read: “People Have Money but Feel Glum—What Does That Mean for the Economy?,” (WSJ).

Treasury Secretary Yellen Calls for Companies to Diversify Trade Away from Reliance on China

On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen called for companies to diversify their trading practices away from reliance upon China while speaking in South Korea (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Speaking at an LG Group research facility in South Korea’s largest city and capital, Ms. Yellen explored so-called ‘friend-shoring,’ a proposed paradigm shift that would have the U.S. and its allies trade more closely with one another and less with geopolitical rivals. Supply disruptions during the Covid-19 pandemic, as well as the war in Ukraine, have exposed the danger of depending too heavily on a single producer, Ms. Yellen said.” Yellen stated, “We cannot allow countries like China to use their market position in key raw materials, technologies, or products to disrupt our economy or exercise unwanted geopolitical leverage.” She added, “By working with key allies like Korea to develop stronger supply chains for key components like [electric-vehicle] batteries or semiconductors, we can make both of our economies stronger and help ease the blockages that have led to higher prices and delays for American workers and businesses.”

Residential Construction Slips for a Second Month

On Tuesday, the Department of Commerce released data showing that residential construction declined in June, the second straight month it has done so (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Housing starts fell 2% to a seasonally adjusted 1.56 million, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal expected housing starts to rise 1.4%. Building permits slipped 0.6% to 1.69 million, but held 1.4% higher than the figure in the prior year. The drops came as interest rates climbed and a global housing boom faded.” The data showed regional variation with the Journal noting, “The construction decline was driven by a drop in building in the South. Western states also saw a notable drop. Construction activity increased in the Northeast last month.” Jeff Tucker, senior economist at Zillow told the Journal that builders are “battening down the hatches and really focusing on making sure that they can sell the homes they have completed now and the homes that they’ve actually already got under construction”

Bonus Read: “Johnson & Johnson Trims Full-Year Guidance on Stronger Dollar,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Report: Student Learning Returned to Normal Pace, Pandemic Deficits Remain

On Tuesday, the non-profit NWEA released a report showing that the pace of learning among elementary school students has recovered to pre-pandemic levels, but the report notes that the recovery has not been sufficient to make up for the deficit produced during the pandemic (NYT). The New York Times writes, “At this rate, elementary school students may need at least three years to catch up to where they would have been had the pandemic not happened, and middle school students may need five years or more, according to the report released on Tuesday by NWEA, a nonprofit organization that provides academic assessments to schools. Researchers examined the results of math and reading assessments for more than eight million students in approximately 25,000 schools. The report did not look at high schools.” Karyn Lewis, a senior NWEA researcher, told the Times that despite the continued deficit,  “I don’t want to lose sight that this is something to celebrate.” Even so, she noted, “It is going to take above average growth to get us out of this hole.” The Times adds, “Recovery is expected to take the longest for groups that were most affected by the pandemic, including low-income students and Black, Hispanic and Native American students. Research has found that extended remote learning was a primary driver of lost learning, widening racial and economic gaps during the pandemic. High-poverty schools tended to spend more time learning remotely, as did Black and Hispanic students.” 

Births Increased for First Time Since Before Pandemic in Back Half of 2021

On Tuesday, the CDC released a report, showing that births increased in the U.S. in the back half of 2021 (ABC). This marks the first increase recorded since before the pandemic. ABC writes that the report found “found there was a 4% increase in births for the second half of 2021 compared to the same period the year before. Between July 2021 and December 2021, 1,905,953 babies were born compared to 1,830,523 babies born from July 2020 to December 2020, according to the CDC.” ABC adds, “This marks the first increase in births seen since 2014, the researchers noted. For the report, the authors looked at birth certificate data from the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics, including final birth counts from 2019 and 2020, as well as provisional data for 2021.”

Remote Work Helps Drive Interest in Manhattan Private Clubs

The Wall Street Journal reports that the rise of remote work during the pandemic has helped increase interest and use of private clubs among Manhattanites (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Members-only clubs are popping up across Manhattan, providing an alternative social hub and workspace as New Yorkers are spending less time in the office. More than a dozen membership clubs have opened in the borough since 2003, including at least nine within the past three years, according to Zack Bates, chief executive of consulting company Private Club Marketing. Most charge $5,000 or less in annual dues, plus a smaller sign-up fee, though those at the top end can charge considerably more.” The Journal adds, “Most new Manhattan clubs are geared toward dinner, drinks and networking as more than half of New York’s white-collar workers continue to avoid the office.” Mike Ang, a founding committee member of one club that opened in June told the Journal, “We lost a lot of that in the pandemic, the ability to network and talk in person,” pointing to clubs as filling the gap. The Journal also notes that the new clubs tend to be less formal than the clubs of yore.

Bonus Read: “Facebook’s workforce grew more diverse when it embraced remote work,” (WaPo). 

Analysis & Arguments

Laura Daily writes on shrinkflation and how to spot it (WaPo).

Rachel Monroe writes on how inflation has impacted a small Texas town (New Yorker).

Derek Thompson writes on the weirdness of the current economy (Atlantic).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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