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July 25, 2022 - Brief Issue 352

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

In U.S., Second Booster for Those Under 50 on Hold (Health & Science)

Combined Nasal and Throat Swabs Could be Better at Detecting Omicron (Health & Science)

Toronto Airport is World’s Worst for Travel Delays (Around the World)

Europe Rides Covid Wave, Without Restrictions this Time (Around the World)

Hospitalizations Surge in Australia (Around the World)

Most States Formally Say Pandemic is No Longer a Health Emergency (U.S. Government & Politics)

Biden’s Covid Symptoms Improving, Likely Has BA5 Variant (U.S. Government & Politics)

Biden Elevates HHS Division to Oversee Pandemic Response (U.S. Government & Politics)

Inflation May Have Peaked, But Questions Persist About How Fast it Will Fall (U.S. Economy)

Health & Science

There have been 90,410,845 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,026,951 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 601,497,801 vaccine doses, with 78.7% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 67.2% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.9% have received at least one dose, and 77% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 48.2% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 29.7% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 570,249,577 cases of coronavirus, with 6,384,536 deaths.

In U.S., Second Booster for Those Under 50 on Hold

The Biden administration is trying to accelerate a fall vaccination campaign that uses reformulated vaccines that better target the Omicron subvariants and, as a result, has put the recommendation for a second booster for people under 50 years of age on hold. Currently, the only groups eligible for a second booster are people over 50 and those over 12 with impaired immune systems (WaPo). In June, FDA advisors recommended tweaking the shot to include an Omicron component, and the agency directed vaccine manufacturers to do so. Vaccine manufacturers said they could have a re-tooled vaccine ready by October, but the administration is pushing for it to be ready even earlier. According to the Washington Post, officials are hoping Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech could have updated shots ready as soon as mid-September. 

Combined Nasal and Throat Swabs Could be Better at Detecting Omicron

Two papers, neither of which have been published in scientific journals, suggest that testing only through a nasal swab or only through a throat swab misses a large share of infections, but a swab that analyzes both could pick up more infections. The combined tests are already common in other countries, including Britain and Germany, but none are authorized in the U.S. yet (NYT). Both papers use data collected during a study of household coronavirus transmission in Los Angeles between Nov. 23 and March 1. For two weeks, each of the 228 people collected nasal and throat swabs and saliva samples, then the researchers tested and calculated the viral load in each specimen. 

The first paper looked at 14 people during the early stages of infections and found that there were significant differences in the viral load between different types of samples from the same individual. For example, one participant had extremely high levels of virus in her throat but the viral levels in her nose swabs went back and forth between detectable and undetectable for more than a week. 

The second paper studied a subset of participants who took daily antigen tests in addition to the other samples. Researchers found that even when people had viral loads high enough to be infectious in one type of specimen, the antigen tests were positive only 63% of the time. Focusing on a single sample type means “really missing out on a large part of the picture,” said Reid Akana, a graduate student at Caltech and an author of the study.

Around the World

Toronto Airport is World’s Worst for Travel Delays

Travel chaos abounds this summer, but Toronto Pearson International Airport has the distinction of being the worst for delays of anywhere in the world. Over 53% of flights departing from Toronto Pearson between June 1 and July 18 arrived late at their destinations, according to flight-data tracker FlightAware (WSJ). A surge in demand for travel has combined with the lifting of Covid-19 restrictions during peak summer travel months, straining airlines and airports that are already suffering from severe staffing shortages following the pandemic. Travelers around the world are facing long lines, lost luggage, and delayed or canceled flights. 

Europe Rides Covid Wave, Without Restrictions this Time

Across Europe, Covid cases are rising due to the Omicron subvariant BA.5, but unlike previous waves of infections, this one is being met with indifference, from both the public and officials. Even in countries that once took strict measures, authorities are relying on vaccinations and some natural immunity from prior infections to lessen the impact of the Omicron subvariants (NYT). So far, the strategy seems to be working; there hasn’t been an uptick in severe cases and intensive care units are handling the patient numbers. Deaths haven’t climbed alongside the high case counts as they have in previous waves. We need to change our paradigm. I don’t think the measures aimed at reducing transmission have any future,” Andrea Crisanti, a professor of microbiology who served as a top consultant to Italian leaders during the coronavirus emergency told the New York Times, listing reasons including social exhaustion with restrictions, greater acceptance of risk, and the biology of a virus had become so infectious that “there is nothing that can stop it.”

Hospitalizations Surge in Australia

Coronavirus cases and hospitalizations are both surging in Australia but authorities are reluctant to reimpose restrictions. There were 5,357 hospitalizations on Thursday, according to Australia’s federal health department, which is one of the highest figures since the pandemic began (NYT). Authorities are recommending that people wear masks indoors again and work from home, but no new restrictions have been imposed. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said that people were flouting the few rules that were currently in place and the government had no desire to enforce the rules. He also cited the toll on Australians' mental health, especially among young people. “We’re seeing an increasing, really problematic increase, in incidents of severe consequences when it comes to young people’s health,” he said, without elaborating. Australia has had some of the strictest restrictions in the world with its border closures stranding tens of thousands of its citizens abroad earlier during the pandemic (Reuters).

U.S. Government & Politics

Most States Formally Say Pandemic is No Longer a Health Emergency

As of today, fewer than a dozen states in the U.S. have emergency declarations in place relating to the coronavirus pandemic. All 50 states and the District of Columbia declared public health emergencies in response to the pandemic in March 2020, allowing officials a wider latitude for responding to the virus, for example, they could increase hospital capacity and expand telehealth services, among other things. But as Americans adjust to living with the virus, governors across the nation have had to justify the extension of emergency declarations to legislators who consider them an unnecessary extension of executive power. As the Omicron subvariant BA. 5 continues to push up positive cases and hospitalizations across the country, many officials worry they won’t be able to respond adequately. Last week, the Biden administration extended the federal coronavirus public health emergency, meaning the emergency period will last through mid-October. It allows millions of low-income Americans access to Medicaid coverage and telehealth services and gives states access to pandemic-related funds (NYT).

Biden’s Covid Symptoms Improving, Likely Has BA5 Variant

On Saturday, the White House stated that Biden’s Covid symptoms are improving and that he likely had the BA5 variant (WaPo, Politico, WSJ, NYT). The Washington Post writes, “Biden’s symptoms — which include sore throat, runny nose, cough and body aches — remain mild, his physician Kevin O’Connor wrote in a letter released Saturday morning. The president has been taking the antiviral Paxlovid for two days and will continue treatment, O’Connor said. He is also taking Tylenol and using an albuterol inhaler a few times a day for cough.” O’Connor also wrote that Biden “likely” has the BA5 variant. Biden tested positive on Thursday. On Friday, Dr. Ashish Jha, White House Coronavirus Coordinator, stated, “He’s doing better because he’s vaccinated, he’s boosted, he’s getting treatment.”

Biden Elevates HHS Division to Oversee Pandemic Response

The New York Times reports that on Wednesday, the Biden administration announced internally that it would create a new division in the Department of Health and Human Services to handle pandemic response (NYT). The move elevates the existing office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response to a division to be titled, “Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response.” The Times writes, “The move effectively creates a new federal agency — on par with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Food and Drug Administration — that will be responsible for crucial health logistics, including oversight of the Strategic National Stockpile, the nation’s emergency medical reserve, and contracting for and distributing vaccines in an emergency.”

Bonus Read: “Trump and DeSantis fight for the heart of the GOP in Florida,” (Politico).

U.S. Economy

Inflation May Have Peaked, But Questions Persist About How Fast it Will Fall

The Wall Street Journal reports that multiple signs are suggesting that inflation may have peaked, but that it remains unclear how fast inflation will fall (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Ed Hyman, chairman of Evercore ISI, pointed to many indicators that 9.1% might have been the top. Gasoline prices have fallen around 10% from their mid-June high point of $5.02 a gallon, according to AAA. Wheat futures prices have fallen by 37% since mid-May and corn futures prices are down 27% from mid-June. The cost of shipping goods from East Asia to the U.S. West Coast is 11.4% lower than a month ago, according to Xeneta, a Norway-based transportation-data and procurement firm.” The Journal also notes, “The University of Michigan consumer-sentiment survey showed that longer-term inflation expectations slipped from June’s 3.1% reading to 2.8% in late June and early July, matching the average rate during the 20 years before the pandemic.” However, Sarah House, senior economist at Wells Fargo, cautioned, “It’s a step in the right direction, but ultimately, even if June is the peak, we’re still looking at an environment where inflation is too hot,” adding, “So peak or not, inflation is going to remain painful through the end of the year.” Bonus Read: “Cheaper Beer, Cigarettes Gain Favor as Inflation Pinches Shoppers,” (WSJ).

Bonus Read: “Rich Americans Keep Borrowing, Defying Economic Gloom,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

The Wall Street Journal reports on how hybrid work is affecting summer plans (WSJ).

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The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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