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June 1, 2022 - Brief Issue 329
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
Brief Senior Editor Peter Bergen’s book on the Trump administration, The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World is now out. You can find it at prominent booksellers.
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Top Headlines
Pulse Oximeter Accuracy Varies by Race, Finds New Study (Health & Science)
Death Rate Among Elderly Rose During Omicron Wave in the U.S. (Health & Science)
Scientists Still Unsure How Long Covid-19 Leaves You Infectious (Health & Science)
This Memorial Day, Cases Five Times Higher Than Last Year in the U.S. (Health & Science)
WHO Takes Measures to Speed Up Response to Global Emergencies (Around the World)
Shanghai to Ease Restrictions (Around the World)
Italy Lifts Covid Restrictions (Around the World)
Eurozone Inflation Hits New High; India Struggles with Inflation, Too (Around the World)
Democrats Seek to Extend Health Insurance Subsidies (U.S. Government & Politics)
In WSJ Op-Ed, Biden Describes Inflation Plan, Says He Will Back Fed Effort to Combat Inflation (U.S. Government & Politics)
Home Price Growth Hit a New Record High in March (U.S. Economy)
Amid Inflation, Grocery Chains Work to Limit Price Increases (U.S. Economy)
Federal Data Puts Numbers to Concerns Over Student Mental Health (U.S. Society)
Woman Gets 15 Months Prison Time for Punching a Flight Attendant (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 84,215,080 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,007,047 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 587,360,320 vaccine doses, with 77.9% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.7% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.3% have received at least one dose, and 76.6% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 46.7% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 22.1% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 530,185,521 cases of coronavirus, with 6,292,985 deaths.
Pulse Oximeter Accuracy Varies by Race, Finds New Study
Pulse oximeter measurements for Black, Hispanic, and Asian Covid-19 patients were less accurate than measurements in white patients, according to a new study published Tuesday in the journal JAMA Internal Medicine. Pulse oximeters, electronic devices that estimate the blood oxygen saturation rate and pulse rate, became an important tool during the pandemic for detecting severe Covid-19 as low oxygen levels was a sign of serious illness. The recent study looked at more than 7,000 patients diagnosed with Covid-19 between March 2020 and November 2021 across five hospitals in the Johns Hopkins Health System and compared pulse oximeter readings with the more accurate arterial blood gas measurements (WSJ).
The researchers found more profound discrepancies between the two readings among patients of color. The Wall Street Journal summarizes: “Compared with white patients, pulse oximeters overestimated oxygen saturation by an average of 1.2 percentage points among Black patients, 1.1 percentage points among Hispanic patients and 1.7 percentage points among Asian patients.” The researchers attempted to quantify the impact that biases in pulse oximeter measurements had on treatment outcomes and estimated that Black patients were almost 30% less likely than white patients to be recognized as eligible for treatment for severe illness. Hispanic patients were 20% less likely than white patients to be recognized as eligible for treatment.
Death Rate Among Elderly Rose During Omicron Wave in the U.S.
Even with high levels of vaccination among elderly people, Covid-19 killed them at higher rates during the winter’s Omicron wave than it did last year. Many people believed Omicron to be a milder variant, but as many Americans 65 and older died in four months of the Omicron surge as did during six months of the Delta wave (NYT). “This is not simply a pandemic of the unvaccinated,” said Andrew Stokes, an assistant professor in global health at Boston University who studies age patterns of Covid deaths. “There’s still exceptionally high risk among older adults, even those with primary vaccine series.” Waning immunity, difficulty in getting booster shots and treatment, and the virus’s ability to skirt immune defenses are all responsible for the high rate of death among older Americans. U.S. officials have encouraged everyone over 50 to get a second booster shot and have introduced new ways to distribute antiviral pills used to treat infection.
Scientists Still Unsure How Long Covid-19 Leaves You Infectious
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention currently recommends at least five days of isolation after testing positive for Covid-19, but many people test positive long after those recommended five days. Even as the pandemic enters its third year, the new, more infectious variants that are circulating combined with built-up immune defenses, it’s still unclear how long someone infected with Covid-19 might be contagious. It’s likely that the CDC’s guidance, which was updated during Omicron’s rapid spread, is leading some people to return to work or social engagements while they are still contagious. Most people with Covid-19 will still test positive on a rapid test at five days, and a “fairly large percentage” test positive after 10 days, CDC spokeswoman Jasmine Reed told the Wall Street Journal. Infectiousness drops significantly at eight days, with few people remaining contagious at 10 days, she said.
This Memorial Day, Cases Five Times Higher Than Last Year in the U.S.
The United States is currently recording more than 100,000 Covid-19 infections a day–five times higher than the same point last year (WaPo). Public health officials say that Memorial Day gatherings will fuel a bump in cases too, potentially sparking a summer surge. More than half the U.S. population is living in areas classified as having medium- or high-risk Covid-19 levels, yet many people don’t seem to care anymore. Officials say the newest subvariant, known as BA.2.12.1, which is now accounting for more than half of new cases in the country, is the most transmissible yet and vaccinated individuals should be aware that the likelihood of a breakthrough infection is high.
Around the World
Bonus Read: “Fighting For Survival in the Shadow of Covid-19,” (Politico).
WHO Takes Measures to Speed Up Response to Global Emergencies
On Monday the World Health Organization (WHO) agreed to form a committee to better the organization’s response to global health emergencies. The committee, called the Standing Committee on Health Emergency Prevention, Preparedness and Response, will convene immediately following a declaration of any international public health emergency to provide guidance to the executive board and director general. The new measure is a response to the WHO’s slow response to the coronavirus pandemic. German Escobar Morales, of Colombia, told the executive board that the Covid-19 pandemic had shown that global health groups “could have responded better to this crisis” (NYT).
Shanghai to Ease Restrictions
Starting today, Shanghai is returning to something close to normal following two months of a strict lockdown due to Covid-19 (NYT). Most of the 25 million residents will be allowed to visit reopened shops and malls, take public transportation, and enjoy public parks and other venues. And, more importantly for city officials, workers will be returning to their jobs. The lockdown has weighed heavily on China’s economic growth and Shanghai’s local leaders cautioned neighborhood officials against arbitrarily restricting residents. “No unit or individual can use any excuse to restrict residents from their neighborhood from going out and returning home, or employees from going on and off shift to restart production,” Zeng Qun, an official from the Shanghai bureau of civil affairs, said at a news conference in the city. Bonus Read: “China’s Economic Downturn Shows Signs of Easing,” (WSJ).
Italy Lifts Covid Restrictions
As of today, travelers to Italy will no longer be required to have a valid coronavirus pass showing proof of vaccination, recent recovery, or a negative test. “I think the conditions exist for a summer without restrictions,” Under Secretary of Health Andrea Costa said during a televised interview on Monday. He asked people to “continue to be prudent and have a sense of responsibility” but noted that the pressure on hospitals was low and conditions in the country were “positive.” High-quality N95 masks must still be worn on public transportation and at indoor cinemas and concerts and in schools according to a mandate that is in effect until June 15 (NYT).
Eurozone Inflation Hits New High; India Struggles with Inflation, Too
Inflation in the eurozone hit 8.1% in May, a sharp acceleration from the 7.4% recorded in April and March, and consumer prices rose at the fastest pace since recordkeeping began in 1997 (WSJ). Germany’s statistics agency reported that inflation in the eurozone’s largest member hadn’t been this high since late 1973 and early 1974 when there was a severe shortage of oil. The war in Ukraine has added to shortages caused by the pandemic. The EU adopted a partial embargo on Russian crude and refined oil products earlier this week, which will give energy prices a boost.
The effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are being layered on top of pandemic-related economic strife around the world. In India, the economy grew 4.1% in the fourth quarter compared to the same period last year due to rising inflation led largely by higher food prices. India cut its forecast of growth for the year by .6%. Ukraine’s exports of wheat, sunflower oil, and corn have all but stopped, leading to higher costs that have slowed consumer spending in India. Even though the nation has lifted almost all domestic Covid-19 restrictions, the economy has struggled to rebound and economists blame inflation (WSJ).
U.S. Government & Politics
Democrats Seek to Extend Health Insurance Subsidies
In the Fall, millions of Americans will likely receive news that their health insurance premiums will increase, as subsidies provided by the pandemic relief effort are currently set to expire on January 1, a date that means companies will likely be informing customers before the midterm elections (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes that this has spurred, “a lobbying campaign by some Democratic lawmakers, hospitals and insurers to persuade Congress to extend financial help.” The impact of the change will be extensive. The Journal writes, “Nearly all of the 13 million people receiving the federal subsidies would see their premiums rise—on average by 53%, according to nonprofit health advocacy group Families USA, and some who have been receiving free healthcare because of the subsidies might lose coverage altogether because they can’t afford to pay.” While many Democrats are seeking an extension, many Republicans do not support such a move. The Journal reports, “Many Republicans and conservative health-policy leaders oppose continuing the subsidies because it would drive up federal spending. Making the more generous subsidy assistance permanent would cost $220 billion over the first 10 years, according to an analysis by the Congressional Budget Office.”
In WSJ Op-Ed, Biden Describes Inflation Plan, Says He Will Back Fed Effort to Combat Inflation
On Monday, President Biden set out his economic plan to deal with inflation in an op-ed in the Wall Street Journal. In an article, the Journal writes, “Mr. Biden outlined a broad three-part plan for addressing inflation, which is running at 40-year highs, in an opinion piece published Monday evening in The Wall Street Journal. He is set to meet with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell on Tuesday at the White House, the first such meeting since Mr. Powell was tapped by Mr. Biden and confirmed to a second four-year term by the Senate on May 12.” In his op-ed, Biden wrote, “The most important thing we can do now to transition from rapid recovery to stable, steady growth is to bring inflation down.” Biden also emphasized his support for the Federal Reserve’s efforts, writing, “the Federal Reserve has a primary responsibility to control inflation. My predecessor demeaned the Fed, and past presidents have sought to influence its decisions inappropriately during periods of elevated inflation. I won’t do this. I have appointed highly qualified people from both parties to lead that institution. I agree with their assessment that fighting inflation is our top economic challenge right now.”
U.S. Economy
Bonus Read: “After a Bumper 2021, Companies Might Struggle to Increase Profits,” (NYT).
Home Price Growth Hit a New Record High in March
Home price growth hit a new record high in March, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, which measures average home prices in major metropolitan areas across the nation, rose 20.6% in the year that ended in March, up from a 20% annual rate the prior month. March marked the highest annual rate of price growth since the index began in 1987.” Craig Lazzara, managing director at S&P Dow Jones Indices, commented, “Those of us who have been anticipating a deceleration in the growth rate of U.S. home prices will have to wait at least a month longer.” As we have covered in multiple new briefs, home prices have surged during the pandemic, as demand increased and supply failed to keep pace. Bonus Read: “Fed Fears Hit Mortgage Bonds, Attracting Investors,” (WSJ).
Amid Inflation, Grocery Chains Work to Limit Price Increases
The Wall Street Journal reports that amid high inflation, major grocery chains are pushing to limit price increases (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Supermarkets and distributors are pushing back on higher prices from food makers, as escalating inflation drives more consumers to rethink their spending. Kroger Co. and other grocery chains said they are asking brands to prove why higher prices are necessary before accepting them, and warning manufacturers that they will stop carrying products if food companies won’t negotiate prices. Some companies said they are switching to new meat suppliers with cheaper products, and are delaying price changes for items like canned goods.” Don Clark, chief merchandising officer of the Pennsylvania based grocery company Giant Eagle told the Journal, “We don’t just accept cost increases.” The efforts and comments come as inflation remains high, and may signal a change in approach from earlier when many companies sought to pass price increases on to their consumers.
Bonus Read: “Amazon Slowdown Sends Shivers Through Red-Hot Warehouse Sector,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Federal Data Puts Numbers to Concerns Over Student Mental Health
On Tuesday, the National Center for Education Statistics released new federal government data on the mental health of American students, putting numbers to an issue that had been raised by many teachers and others over the pandemic (WaPo). The Washington Post writes that the survey “documents the toll the pandemic has taken on students’ mental health, with 7 in 10 public schools seeing a rise in the number of children seeking services. Even more, 76 percent, said faculty and staff members have expressed concerns about depression, anxiety and trauma in students since the start of the pandemic. Yet only about half of all schools said they were able to effectively provide needed services.” The Post notes that the data “add to the evidence that the pandemic is leaving this generation of students with significant mental health challenges,” citing a bevy of earlier anecdotal evidence. Peggy G. Carr, commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics, told the Post, “The pandemic has taken a clear and significant toll on students’ mental health.” The survey was conducted prior to the recent deadly school shooting in Texas.
Woman Gets 15 Months Prison Time for Punching a Flight Attendant
On Friday, a woman was sentenced to 15 months in prison for punching a flight attendant on a May 2021 Southwest flight (NYT). The New York Times writes, “The assault came amid a surge of unruly and violent behavior by passengers who shoved, struck and yelled at flight attendants. Within days of the attack, two major airlines, American and Southwest, postponed plans to begin serving alcohol again on flights, in an effort to stop the behavior. Both airlines have since resumed alcohol sales.” The Times writes that the incident escalated after the flight attendant asked the woman to wear a mask. In a Friday statement on the sentence, Randy Grossman, U.S. attorney for the Southern District of California, said, “Attacks on flight crew members, who perform vital jobs to ensure passenger safety, will not be tolerated.” The 29-year-old Sacramento woman, Vyvianna M. Quinonez, pled guilty in December, and her lawyer did not provide the Times with a comment. In a May 18 letter to the judge in the case, Southwest Airlines asked for a sentence that would serve as a deterrent with Sonya Lacore, a Southwest Vice President, writing, “In my 20+ year career at Southwest, I have never seen such an inexcusable, violent assault of a flight attendant by a passenger. Even worse, the incident was captured on video and cast across television and media channels.”
Bonus Read: “Plot Twist! Movie Theaters Fear Popcorn Shortfall Will Be a Spoiler,” (WSJ).
Analysis & Arguments
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