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What Are Investors’ Strategies for Sussing Out Revenue in the AI Era?

By Marc Vartabedian, WSJ Pro

 

Good day. Artificial-intelligence startups these days are experimenting with a variety of pricing models, leading venture investors to say that gauging the revenue of these young companies can be tricky. We'd like to hear from you: What are the key metrics investors are focusing on to get a handle on a company’s revenue? Please email responses to vcnews@wsj.com. 

In the previous question of the week, we asked readers to comment on the trend of founders getting inundated with new investor interest immediately after announcing funding from big-name venture firms—and whether delaying announcements makes sense. Here are edited and condensed responses:

  • Rob Biederman, managing partner at Asymmetric Capital Partners: “It is always wiser to publicize traction, momentum and fundraising rounds. Most companies should be doing anything they can to get on the radar of potential customers. In today’s competitive venture market, letting possible downstream funders know that you're not only performing well but open to raising capital is a no-brainer.”
     
  • Joshua Rubnitz, investment analyst at TDK Ventures: “The surge of inbound interest after a major fundraise shows how momentum-driven the venture market has become. Many investors increasingly treat an announcement as a diligence shortcut—if a top firm has blessed the deal, others rush in. Delaying an announcement can be a fair strategy, especially in markets where the best-funded company can beat even technically superior competitors.”
     
  • Bob Ackerman, managing partner and co-founder of DataTribe and founder, managing director and chairman at AllegisCyber Capital: “The trend says a lot about a venture community driven by momentum and a willingness to use other venture firms as ‘bird dogs’ to identify potentially promising investments. Long-term success is seldom funded by fast money.”
     
  • Rob Keith, a partner at Salesforce Ventures: “In today’s market, capital is abundant, conviction is scarce and a marquee firm’s brand is the fastest market validator. Announcements are a signaling function, not a financing event. Great founders treat capital as a commodity, but choose investors who show up before the press release, understand the terrain. Delaying an announcement can be a superpower, and a true strategic partner will prioritize the company’s operating cadence.”

And now on to the news...

 
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Top News

A Castelion hypersonic test was conducted in the Mojave Desert in California last year. REUTERS

Alarm over hypersonic missile gap fuels startup boom. The Pentagon is getting serious about hypersonic weapons, a technology that has eluded the U.S. military for decades. It is looking to startups, with no experience but billions of dollars backing them, to fill an increasingly glaring hole in the national arsenal. As the Defense Department belatedly looks to close a gap with China and Russia, private investment is pouring in, and startups—many of which haven’t built hypersonic systems at scale and haven’t flown at hypersonic speeds—are seeing their valuations soar.

$15.8 Trillion

The cumulative wealth of some 2,900 billionaires globally in 2025, up from about 2,700 billionaires controlling nearly $14 trillion a year earlier, according to UBS.

Altman Has Explored Deal to Build Competitor to Elon Musk’s SpaceX

OpenAI Chief Executive Sam Altman has explored putting together funds to either acquire or partner with a rocket company, a move that would position him to compete against Elon Musk’s SpaceX. Altman reached out to at least one rocket maker, Stoke Space, in the summer, and the discussions picked up in the fall, according to people familiar with the talks. Among the proposals was for OpenAI to make a series of equity investments in the company and end up with a controlling stake. Such an investment would total billions of dollars over time. The talks are no longer active, people close to OpenAI said.

  • Related: Space-Related Stocks Soar on Report of Sam Altman’s Interest

Cybersecurity Startup 7AI Raises $130 Million in Series A Funding

Artificial-intelligence startup 7AI raised $130 million in a Series A funding round, an unusually high amount for early-stage financing as investors bet big on AI in cybersecurity. The round was led by Index Ventures, with participation from all existing seed investors, including Greylock Partners, CRV and Spark Capital. Blackstone Innovations Investments also participated as a new investor. Boston-based 7AI builds AI agents—bots designed to perform specific tasks—that analyze and triage information such as cybersecurity alerts, and in some cases take actions.

 
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Industry News

Funds

Nexus Venture Partners closed its Nexus Ventures VIII fund with $700 million in commitments to back AI, enterprise software, consumer and fintech startups across the U.S. and India.

People

Novel anticancer therapeutics developer Tacalyx appointed Jean Engela as chief executive officer. He was previously CEO of NBE Therapeutics.

Thryv Therapeutics, a developer of treatments for inherited cardiac arrhythmias, cardiometabolic diseases and cardiomyopathies, appointed Matt Killeen as chief business officer. He most recently served as president of TikkunLev Therapeutics.

Deals

OpenAI agreed to acquire Neptune, a developer of tools to help AI companies monitor and debug models during training.

 

New Money

Harvey, a San Francisco-headquartered legal AI startup, scored a $160 million investment, giving the company an $8 billion valuation. Andreessen Horowitz led the funding, which included additional support from Kleiner Perkins, Sequoia Capital and others.

Paradigm Health, a Columbus, Ohio-based startup helping to make clinical trials more accessible, grabbed $78 million in Series B funding from investors including General Catalyst, GV and Lux Capital.

Artera, a Santa Barbara, Calif.-based healthcare startup combining human and AI agent intelligence for patient communications, secured a $65 million growth investment. Lead Edge Capital led the funding, which included participation from Jackson Square Ventures, Health Velocity Capital and Summation Health Ventures.

Flex, a San Francisco-based private banking startup for high-net-worth business owners in the middle market, landed $60 million in Series B funding. Portage led the round, which included contributions from CrossLink Capital, Titanium Ventures and others.

Fact Base, a Tokyo-headquartered startup that streamlines information sharing and order management for small and mid-sized manufacturers, raised $28.5 million in Series C funding led by Insight Partners.

Imper.ai, a provider of real-time cyber impersonation prevention, emerged from stealth with $28 million in funding from investors including Redpoint Ventures and Battery Ventures. The company is based in New York and Tel Aviv.

PH7 Technologies, a Canada-based startup developing critical-mineral extraction technologies, collected $25.6 million in Series B funding. Fine Structure Ventures led the investment, which saw participation from BHP Ventures and others.

Oxzo, a Chile-based provider of oxygenation services for aquaculture, picked up a $25 million strategic investment led by S2G Investments.

Pine, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based AI agent for consumers’ digital chores, closed a $25 million Series A round from investors including Fortwest Capital.

Lumia, a New York-based AI security and governance platform, was seeded with an $18 million investment led by Team8.

Multifactor, a San Francisco-based post-quantum security platform, was seeded with a $15 million investment led by Nexus Venture Partners.

Quanta, a San Francisco-headquartered accounting platform, secured $15 million in Series A financing led by Accel.

Autolane, a Palo Alto, Calif.-based startup building curbside infrastructure for autonomous vehicles, snagged a $7.4 million investment co-led by Draper Associates and Hyperplane.

 

Tech News

Rainmaker CEO and founder Augustus Doricko. PHOTO BY SPENSER HEAPS FOR WSJ

  • The ‘Chemtrails’ Conspiracy Theory Dogging the Battle Against Drought
     
  • The Math Legend Who Just Left Academia—for an AI Startup Run by a 24-Year-Old
     
  • Masayoshi Son Hammers Out High-Tech Factories Plan With White House
     
  • Apple Departures Point to Challenges for iPhone’s Dominance
     
  • Meta Plans to Shift Spending Away From the Metaverse
     
  • Salesforce Lifts Some of Its AI Cloud
     
  • Waymo’s Self-Driving Cars Are Suddenly Behaving Like New York Cabbies
     
  • Spotify Wrapped ‘Listening Age’ Feature Has Music Fans Howling
 
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Around the Web

  • VCs deploy ‘kingmaking’ strategy to crown AI winners in their infancy (TechCrunch)
     
  • Bill Gates’ daughter lands $30 million for star-backed AI firm (Bloomberg)
     
  • A startup says it has found a hidden source of geothermal energy (Wired)
 

The WSJ Pro VC Team

This newsletter was compiled by Matthew Strozier, Marc Vartabedian and Zachary Cole.

WSJ Pro Venture Capital is a premium service of The Wall Street Journal. We cover venture capital and the global startup ecosystem. Share your tips, comments and questions: vcnews@wsj.com

The Team: Matthew Strozier, Yuliya Chernova, Brian Gormley and Marc Vartabedian.

 
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