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May 26, 2022 - Brief Issue 328

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

Brief Senior Editor Peter Bergen’s book on the Trump administration, The Cost of Chaos: The Trump Administration and the World comes out in paperback May 31. You can find it at prominent booksellers.

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Top Headlines

Vaccination Modestly Reduces Long Covid Risk, Says New U.S. Study (Health & Science)

New Subvariant, BA2.12.1 Now Dominant in U.S. in Hidden Wave (Health & Science)

Pfizer Chief Warns of ‘Constant Waves’ of Covid (Health & Science)

WHO Reelects Director General (Around the World)

New Report Details Parties at Downing Street, Johnson Says He ‘Learned a Lesson’ (Around the World)

China Pushes Regular Mass Testing (Around the World)

CDC Adds Five Destinations to Level 3 “High” Risk List (U.S. Government & Politics)

Chinese Lockdowns Hurt Starbucks, Adidas, InterContinental Hotels (U.S. Economy)

Durable Goods Orders Saw a Modest Rise in April (U.S. Economy)

Pandemic Delays Bring Awkwardness, Changed Rules Regarding Disinviting Wedding Guests (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 83,718,202 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,003,783 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 585,416,027 vaccine doses, with 77.8% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.6% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.2% have received at least one dose, and 76.5% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 46.6% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 20.7% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 527,495,916 cases of coronavirus, with 6,283,592 deaths.

Vaccination Modestly Reduces Long Covid Risk, Says New U.S. Study

A new Veterans Affairs study published Wednesday in Nature Medicine found that vaccination reduces the risk of developing long covid by about 15% compared with those who were unvaccinated. The study was based on 33,940 people who experienced breakthrough infections after vaccination. According to the Washington Post, “Six months after their initial diagnosis of covid, people in the study who were vaccinated had only a slightly reduced risk of getting long covid — 15 percent overall. The greatest benefit appeared to be in reducing blood clotting and lung complications. But there was no difference between the vaccinated and unvaccinated when it came to longer-term risks of neurological issues, gastrointestinal symptoms, kidney failure and other conditions.” The findings show that breakthrough infections are associated with a very real risk of long covid, even if the initial infection is mild (WSJ). 

New Subvariant, BA2.12.1 Now Dominant in U.S. in Hidden Wave

Another Omicron subvariant, known as BA.2.12.1, is now the dominant form in the United States, federal estimates released on Tuesday show. The new subvariant made up about 58% of all new cases for the week ending May 21, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (NYT). Ahead of the third Memorial Day weekend under the shadow of the pandemic the country is averaging over 100,000 new confirmed cases per day for the first time since February–even as public health experts warn that many infections are going unreported in official statistics. 

The use of home tests and along with changes in data collection have led officials to warn that many cases are going uncounted. Last month, former FDA Commissioner Dr. Scott Gottlieb estimated that officials were only picking up “one in seven or one in eight” infections (ABC). “There's a lot of COVID out there. I see it in my social circles, in my kids' schools and in the hospital employee infection numbers,” Dr. Shira Doron, an infectious disease physician and hospital epidemiologist at Tufts Medical Center in Boston, told ABC News. “We are clearly in a wave.”

Pfizer Chief Warns of ‘Constant Waves’ of Covid

Pfizer Chief Executive Albert Bourla said in an interview that public complacency with Covid measures combined with the fact that “politicians want to claim victory” over the virus would dampen efforts for additional booster shots and result in “constant waves” of Covid variants.  “I feel when I discuss [Covid] with my friends, people are ready to compromise and lower the bar: maybe we can accept a few more old people dying, [rather] than have to work with a mask,” Bourla said in an interview in Davos, Switzerland, where he was attending the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting (FT). 

Around the World

WHO Reelects Director General

The World Health Organization re-elected Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus by the agency’s member states at the World Health Assembly in Geneva on Tuesday. Dr. Tedros is the first African to hold the post and has overseen the organization’s response to the coronavirus for the duration of the pandemic (NYT). At the assembly, Dr. Tedros warned that Covid-19 was still a threat and said “it’s not over anywhere until it’s over everywhere.” 

New Report Details Parties at Downing Street, Johnson Says He ‘Learned a Lesson’

A report by a senior British civil servant published Wednesday provided a detailed breakdown of 16 social events that took place in government offices during official national lockdowns between 2020 and 2021. The report included photographs of Prime Minister Boris Johnson holding drinks at two events with colleagues and details of alcohol-heavy parties at Downing Street (NYT). “The senior leadership at the center, both political and official, must bear responsibility for this culture,” said civil servant Sue Gray in her report (WSJ). Johnson, who has been fined by police for attending a birthday party thrown in his honor during lockdown, urged lawmakers in Parliament to move on, saying “I take full responsibility for what took place on my watch,” he said, adding, “I have learned a lesson.” Bonus Read: “Factbox: What are the findings from a report into lockdown parties in Downing Street?” (Reuters).

China Pushes Regular Mass Testing 

Chinese cities and provinces are now utilizing regular mass testing for coronavirus infections even if there is no local outbreak of Covid-19. In Henan Province, 99 million residents will be required to take PCR tests every other day by June (NYT). In Zhejiang, drivers will be tested at highway exits before they can enter the province. Beijing is now requiring a test to ride the subway or enter any public place. Bonus Read: “China’s Top Two Leaders Diverge in Messaging on Covid Impact,” (WSJ).

U.S. Government & Politics

Bonus Read: “Power of Trump’s Endorsements Dims in Governor Races,” (WSJ).

CDC Adds Five Destinations to Level 3 “High” Risk List

On Monday, the CDC announced the addition of five destinations to its list of Level 3 “high” countries (CNN). CNN reports, “The Central American country of Belize, the Bahamas archipelago in the North Atlantic, the mountainous British overseas island territory of Montserrat, the Caribbean island country of Saint Vincent and the Grenadines and the southern African country of Eswatini were all moved to Level 3, or ‘high’ risk for Covid-19.” Montserrat moved up two levels from Level 1 while the four other countries were previously listed as at Level 2. As we covered in a prior brief, the CDC recently revised its system of levels, moving all countries out of the prior top level of four. CNN explains, “The Level 3 ‘high’ risk category is now the top rung in terms of risk level. Level 2 is considered ‘moderate’ risk, and Level 1 is ‘low’ risk. Level 4, previously the highest risk category, is now reserved only for special circumstances, such as extremely high case counts, emergence of a new variant of concern or health care infrastructure collapse. Under the new system, no destinations have been placed at Level 4 so far.”

U.S. Economy

Chinese Lockdowns Hurt Starbucks, Adidas, InterContinental Hotels

China’s Covid-19 lockdowns are suppressing consumer spending and as a result impacting multinational companies including American-run Starbucks, German sportswear company Adidas, and British hotel company InterContinental (WSJ). Paul Edgecliffe-Johnson, chief financial officer for InterContinental Hotel Group, stated that the company would have had better revenue to report, “if we didn’t have…the China drag.” The Journal notes, “IHG’s China revenues per available room were down 42% in the first quarter compared with the same period in pre-Covid 2019, though it doesn’t break out its China revenue.” The Journal similarly reports that Starbucks’ “China store sales declined 23% for the quarter that ended in March from a year earlier and a third of its 5,400 outlets in the country were closed as of early May, pointing to another tough quarter in the making, executives said on a recent earnings call.” The wide impact of declining spending in China contrasts with growth in the United States. The Journal writes, “In a reversal for many Western firms accustomed to relying on China as a prime source of growth, weak consumption in the world’s second-largest economy is offsetting strong sales in the U.S. and elsewhere. Chinese retail sales declined 11.1% in April from a year earlier, according to official data released last week. In the U.S., retail sales were up 8.2% in April.”

Durable Goods Orders Saw a Modest Rise in April

On Wednesday, the Commerce Department released data showing that orders of durable goods saw a modest increase in April (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “New orders for products meant to last at least three years increased by 0.4% to a seasonally adjusted $265.3 billion in April following a revised 0.6% rise in March, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. April marked the sixth increase in seven months. Nondefense aircraft and parts orders were up 4.3%, rebounding from an 8.1% decline in March. Excluding defense, orders of durable goods rose 0.3%.” The Journal adds, “Strong consumer spending has boosted manufacturing demand, despite continuing supply-chain disruptions due to the war in Ukraine and Covid 19-related shutdowns in China, which have contributed to rising prices.” However, it notes that there are signs future orders may not continue to rise, including sales declines reported by companies like Best Buy, which we described in yesterday’s brief. 

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “The Anti-Vaccine Movement’s New Frontier,” (NYT).

Pandemic Delays Bring Awkwardness, Changed Rules Regarding Disinviting Wedding Guests

The New York Times reports on how wedding delays and pandemic-related health concerns have generated awkwardness and in some cases rewritten the social rules around disinviting wedding guests (NYT). The Times writes, “Though etiquette has grown more relaxed, revoking wedding invitations is still seen by some as a major faux pas. But the lingering pandemic has forced couples to do just that over the last two years, for reasons including changing Covid protocols, rising costs and a wave of postponed events that has left many scrambling to find available venues.” Elaine Swann, described by the Times as “an etiquette expert and the founder of the Swann School of Protocol” told the Times, that it is still necessary to tell disinvited guests that they are disinvited. The Times writes “She suggests disinviting people the same way they were invited. If guests received save-the-date cards by mail, for instance, they should be notified by mail that they are no longer invited.” She told the Times, “This is where it is acceptable to be very honest and say, ‘We’ve decided to have a much smaller affair.’” Mary Guido, who runs a wedding planning business, told the Times that it is important to be “both prompt and personal” in such communications. Guido applied her advice when she and her husband decided to disinvite 175 people and only have a photographer in attendance at their “self-uniting ceremony.” She added, “They were very compassionate and understanding.” The Times interviewed others who are wrestling with the changing expectations and anxiety surrounding the issue amid the pandemic.

Analysis & Arguments

David Wallace-Wells writes on what vaccine apartheid tells about the future of climate change (NYT).

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The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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