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April 11, 2022 - Brief Issue 314

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

Life Expectancy Rebounds in Some Places, But Not in the U.S. (Health & Science)

Shanghai’s Data on Deaths Uncertain; Officials Try to Reassure Residents Over Food Supply Chain Challenges as Residents Grow Weary, Angry; Lockdown Will be Lifted in Some Areas (Around the World)

Indian Vaccine Makers Lower Price of Covid Shots (Around the World)

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Doomed Sputnik Vaccine (Around the World)

Saudi Arabia Will Allow a Million Hajj Pilgrims to Visit Mecca (Around the World)

Covid Cases Tied to Gridiron Dinner Continue Among Administration and D.C. Elite, At Least 67 Dinner Attendees Have Tested Positive (U.S. Government & Politics)

Covid’s Spread in D.C. Raises Concerns About Procedures to Protect Biden; Administration Responds (U.S. Government & Politics)

NYC Mayor Eric Adams Tests Positive (U.S. Government & Politics)

Psaki: Student Borrowers Will Have to Repay Loans Sometime (U.S. Government & Politics)

WSJ: Economists See Rising Risk of Recession (U.S. Economy)

Jobless Claims Fall to a Low Not Seen Since 1968 (U.S. Economy)

Auto Inflation A Wild Card for Economists Predictions (U.S. Economy)

Weddings Surge Back, Posing Challenges for the Wedding Industry and Consumers (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 80,399,477 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 985,482 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 565,598,011 vaccine doses, with 77.2% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 65.8% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 88.6% have received at least one dose, and 75.7% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 45.2% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 498,154,313 cases of coronavirus, with 6,176,420 deaths.

Life Expectancy Rebounds in Some Places, But Not in the U.S.

High-income countries are seeing a rebound in life expectancy following a decrease due to the pandemic, but not the United States. Life expectancy in the U.S. continued to drop in 2021, according to new preliminary analysis that found the decline was driven largely by deaths among white Americans (NYT). Many of the United States’ “peer nations” saw life expectancies jump back up in 2021 due to high vaccination rates. 

The peer nations the researchers cited were Austria, Belgium, Denmark, England and Wales, Finland, France, Germany, Israel, Italy, Netherlands, New Zealand, Northern Ireland, Norway, Portugal, Scotland, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland. They calculated the life expectancy figures using official counts for 2019 and 2020, and estimated for 2021 using a validated modeling method.

But the life expectancy in the U.S. dropped by a total of 2.26 years from 2019. Dr. Steven Woolf, a professor of family medicine and population health at Virginia Commonwealth University and one of the study’s authors, said that white people account for a large share of the population in states and communities that had lax pandemic restrictions and of people who opposed vaccination and restrictive policies designed to reduce viral transmission. “We have to address the elephant in the room: polarization and partisanship in how the pandemic was handled,” Dr. Woolf said. Bonus Read: “Why This Coastal County Has the Highest Covid Death Rate in Its State,” (NYT).

Bonus Read: “How to Improve Heart Health After Covid,” (NYT).

Around the World

Shanghai’s Data on Deaths Uncertain; Officials Try to Reassure Residents Over Food Supply Chain Challenges as Residents Grow Weary, Angry; Lockdown Will be Lifted in Some Areas

Shanghai’s current Covid-19 outbreak has shut down the city and kept 25 million people at home and the official case count is over 130,000 cases since March 1, but no deaths have been recorded and only one patient is said to have severe illness. The absence of deaths and severe illness is puzzling, but health and data experts say that calculating and comparing Covid-related deaths is challenging due to differences in vaccination rates and diverging methods for testing and recording data. Sean Sylvia, an assistant professor of health policy at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill told the Wall Street Journal that, “when reporting deaths, if there is a choice between attributing them to Covid-19 or to some underlying conditions, there are sometimes strong incentives not to attribute them directly to Covid-19.”  In China, “we just don’t know what the true number of deaths is,” he said. “That is true globally, too. We have estimates. But in a lot of places, it’s very uncertain, and China’s one of those places,” he said.

On Sunday, Shanghai officials tried to reassure locked-down residents that supply bottlenecks that were affecting the availability of food and other items would be resolved soon. The city reported 25,000 locally transmitted Covid-19 infections on Sunday alone. Residents are locked down and unable to leave their homes to get basic necessities; the government has been distributing food but many residents have complained that the deliveries are insufficient (Reuters). The bottlenecks have been blamed on road blocks and checkpoints on highways but the transport ministry said on Saturday that it was working to standardize these to alleviate traffic congestion and facilitate the movement of critical supplies. 

Some people in Shanghai have begun to demonstrate their frustration with the strict Covid protocols by swarming police officers, shouting out their windows, or banging pots and pans in protest. “We’ve already cooperated with you for 10 days,” residents in one suburban district in Shanghai shouted at police officers, according to a video widely shared on Chinese social media. The name of the town, Gucun, was visible in the background, according to the New York Times. “We just want to eat, is that so hard?” they yelled.

On Monday, officials said that the lockdown would be lifted in some areas starting today. Authorities designated each residential unit as one of three risk categories that would allow those in areas without positive cases for two weeks to engage in “appropriate activity” in their neighborhoods (Reuters). "Each district will announce the specific names of the first batch (of communities) divided into the three types, and three subsequent lists will be announced in a timely manner," city official Gu Honghui said at a news briefing. He added that the city would make “dynamic” adjustments to the new system to try to minimize the impact of lockdowns on the city.

The U.S. State Department announced on Friday evening that non-emergency U.S. government employees in Shanghai and their family members could leave the city because of the outbreak and the strict lockdown (NYT). 

Indian Vaccine Makers Lower Price of Covid Shots 

The Serum Institute of India and Bharat Biotech, two of India’s largest vaccine manufacturers, both announced price cuts on Saturday to expand access to shots to more people. The price cuts were a response to the Indian government’s announcement on Friday that booster doses for most adults would be available but only at private health facilities and for paying recipients (NYT). “We are pleased to announce that after discussion with the central government, S.I.I. has decided to revise the price of Covishield vaccine for private hospitals,” Adar Poonawalla, the chief executive of Serum Institute, said on Twitter using the company’s brand name for the AstraZeneca-Oxford vaccine. Suchitra Ella, a co-founder of Bharat Biotech, made a similar announcement about Covaxin, saying the shot would be marked down about 80%, making it now available at private hospitals for around 225 rupees (about $3). Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been criticized for not making vaccines more affordable; critics say the government’s latest decision to make Indians pay for booster doses places poorer people at a disadvantage. “The central feature of this new policy is discrimination by design,” Abhishek Singhvi of the Indian National Congress, the main opposition party, said on Sunday. “Are you suggesting that you do not care for the rural population? Are you suggesting that you do not bother about the less privileged?”

Russia’s Invasion of Ukraine Doomed Sputnik Vaccine

Even though the Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine was the first shot approved by any country–just six months into the pandemic–any aspirations Russian President Vladimir Putin had for it have now fallen by the wayside in light of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Manufacturing of the vaccine has slowed and research has stalled. A planned visit by the World Health Organization to Sputnik’s manufacturing plants has been delayed indefinitely. That visit was the last step in the international approval process, which means that WHO approval for the vaccine is unlikely to happen any time soon. Sputnik V has been approved in 71 countries so far and the Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology, which developed the vaccine; and its partner, the Russian Direct Investment Fund (RDIF) were hoping to win WHO approval and market their shot as a sort of universal booster using new research findings released in February (WaPo). “Russia’s vaccine diplomacy has failed,” Agathe Demarais, global forecasting director and trustee for the Economist Intelligence Unit, said. “Gamaleya was looking toward a big PR push to save the vaccine. I understand they believe in it from a scientific perspective, but obviously, the current situation goes beyond science.”

Saudi Arabia Will Allow a Million Hajj Pilgrims to Visit Mecca

Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Hajj and Umrah announced on Saturday that one million foreign and domestic Muslims will be permitted to travel to Mecca this year for the annual hajj pilgrimage in July (NYT). The pilgrims must be vaccinated against Covid-19, test negative for the virus within 72 hours of departure for the pilgrimage, and be younger than 65. Even with the precautions in place, it’s still a big step towards getting back to normal after two years of the hajj being severely restricted. In 2020, only 1,000 domestic visitors and in 2021 only 60,000 people were permitted. 

U.S. Government & Politics

Covid Cases Tied to Gridiron Dinner Continue Among Administration and D.C. Elite, At Least 67 Dinner Attendees Have Tested Positive

On Saturday Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack announced that he had tested positive for Covid (NYT). Vilsack is yet another case in a wave of major figures in D.C. to test positive, a wave in large part tied to the prestigious Gridiron Dinner, which was attended by more than 450 people. According to the event’s organizers, 67 people have tested positive in the wake of the event (WaPo, WaPo). Vilsack was among those who attended the dinner, and is the third member of Biden’s cabinet who tested positive after attending it. The Washington Post writes, “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.) got it. D.C. Mayor Muriel E. Bowser (D) got it. Attorney General Merrick Garland, Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo and Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) all announced they got it after attending the exclusive Gridiron Club dinner on April 2.” On Thursday, Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi tested positive. Pelosi had also appeared maskless with President Biden on Wednesday though White House Spokesperson Jen Psaki said she did not count as a close contact as defined by the CDC as spending more than 15 minutes within six feet of someone with Covid. As we covered in prior briefs, last month, Psaki herself tested positive, preventing her from going on a presidential trip to Europe, and her replacement in the role for that trip then tested positive on their return. 

Covid’s Spread in D.C. Raises Concerns About Procedures to Protect Biden; Administration Responds

Amid Covid’s spread among administration figures, some have raised concerns about the White House’s approach to protecting the president (WaPo). The Washington Post writes, “Most of the time, President Biden doesn’t wear a mask, but occasionally he’s spotted with one. Sometimes his events are in crowded indoor rooms, other times outdoors. And through it all over the past two weeks, people close to Biden — if not in ‘close contact’ as defined by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention — are contracting covid as part of a wave washing over parts of official Washington. The White House approach appears somewhat haphazard, at times taking care to go beyond CDC guidelines and at others walking up to the edge of what’s recommended. And at least once in the last two weeks, he publicly disregarded his public health agency’s advice while visiting Poland.” The president who is fully vaccinated with two boosters has so far not gotten Covid, but at 80, the Post notes that if he were to catch the virus, it could be an economic and psychological shock. Jonathan Reiner, a professor of medicine and surgery at George Washington University, told the Post, “If the president contracts the virus, it’s going to be a big deal,” adding, “And there is this small but real risk of needing to be hospitalized or worse.”

Responding to such concerns, White House communications director Kate Bedingfield stated, “The president is vaccinated and double boosted, and so protected from severe covid. We take every precaution to ensure that we keep him safe.” The Post also notes, “So far, all of the publicly announced cases among lawmakers and top government officials in Washington have reportedly been mild.” For his part, on Sunday, the president’s chief medical advisor Anthony Fauci downplayed the risk (Politico). Fauci stated, “The protocols to protect the president are pretty strong.” He added, “The president is vaccinated. He is doubly boosted. He got his fourth shot of an mRNA. When we people like myself and my colleagues are in the room closely with him for a considerable period of time — half an hour, 20 minutes, 40 minutes — all of us need to be tested. Yes, he is mingling there, but we feel that the protocols around the president are sufficient to protect him.”

NYC Mayor Eric Adams Tests Positive

On Sunday, New York City Mayor Eric Adams tested positive for Covid (Politico). His press secretary stated, “At this time, the mayor has no other symptoms, but he is already isolating and will be canceling all public events for the remainder of the week.” Politico notes, “Adams was also among attendees at the Gridiron Club dinner on April 2 where at least 67 guests tested positive, according to new figures from the organizers of the dinner. Adams got tested after the Gridiron event and the results came up negative, his spokesperson said Wednesday.”

Psaki: Student Borrowers Will Have to Repay Loans Sometime

On Sunday, White House Spokeswoman Jen Psaki suggested that student borrowers will eventually have to repay their loans even as the administration has extended a pause on loan repayments because of the pandemic (Politico). Psaki told Fox News Sunday, “I suspect that sometime you will, but again, we are going to continue to assess every month, every few months on where things stand, both looking of course at Covid, but also economic data and where we need to continue to help give the American people some breathing room.” We covered Biden’s extension of the current pause in prior briefs. That pause will last until August 31, at which point repayments will either restart or the administration will extend the pause for a fifth time. Politico notes, “President Joe Biden’s latest extension fell short of a range of Democrats’ calls for the administration to continue the pandemic relief for borrowers through at least the end of the year — after the November midterm elections. Beyond the pause, there’s growing pressure on Biden to use executive authority to eliminate at least $10,000 in student debt for every borrower.”

Bonus Read: “School Reopening Mess Drives Frustrated Parents Toward GOP,”  (WSJ).

U.S. Economy

WSJ: Economists See Rising Risk of Recession

The Wall Street Journal reports that economists it surveyed see a rising risk of recession (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal this month on average put the probability of the economy being in recession sometime in the next 12 months at 28%, up from 18% in January and just 13% a year ago.” Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US LLP. told the Journal, “Risk of a recession is rising due to the series of supply shocks cascading throughout the economy as the Fed lifts rates to address inflation.” 

Jobless Claims Fall to a Low Not Seen Since 1968

On Thursday, the Labor Department released data showing that jobless claims had fallen to their lowest level since 1968 (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Initial jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, fell to 166,000 during the week that ended on April 2, compared with a revised 171,000 the prior week, the Labor Department said Thursday. The weekly total was the lowest since November 1968, when the labor force was less than half of its current size.” The Journal notes that some of the fall may be the result of methodological changes made annually. The Journal notes, however, “Jobless claims have hovered around half-century lows since late 2021 as the labor market has continued to improve during the economic recovery.”

Auto Inflation A Wild Card for Economists Predictions

The New York Times reports that while many economists are expecting inflation to begin to decline, inflation when it comes to cars may be a wild card for their predictions (NYT). The Times writes, “Car prices have helped push inflation sharply higher over the past year, and economists have been counting on them to level off and even decline in 2022, allowing the rising Consumer Price Index to moderate markedly,” adding, “But it is increasingly unclear how much and how quickly car prices will slow their ascent, because of repeated setbacks that threaten to keep the market under pressure. While price increases are showing some early signs of slowing and used car costs, in particular, are unlikely to climb at the same breakneck pace as last year, continued shortfalls of new vehicles could keep prices elevated — even rising — longer than many economists expected.” Jonathan Smoke, the chief economist at consulting company Cox Automotive, told the Times, “We’ve stumbled into another pattern of a series of unfortunate events,” pointing to such factors like shutdowns in Chinese cities key to microchip supply chains. Alan Detmeister, a senior economist at UBS and former chief of the Federal Reserve Board’s wages and prices section, told the Times that he expects used car prices to fall by 15% and new car prices to fall by a lower 2.5 to 3 percent. But he added that his prediction is dependent on increased supply, saying, “This is a huge wild card in the forecast.” 

Bonus Read: “Gas Price Surge Fuels Fights at FedEx, Uber Over Who Will Pay,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Bonus Read: “How Covid Changed the Clergy in New York,” (NYT).

Weddings Surge Back, Posing Challenges for the Wedding Industry and Consumers

As pandemic restrictions lessen and people increasingly return to activities that they put on hold for the pandemic, the number of people having weddings is surging. But the Washington Post reports that the industry may face challenges in meeting the new demand (WaPo). The Post writes, that the “sudden burst of celebratory demand is colliding with supply chain backlogs, labor shortages and inflation, resulting in higher prices for brides and grooms across the country.” The Wedding Report, an industry group, told the Post it expects a 30% increase in the number of weddings held in 2022 compared to 2021, constituting 2.5 million weddings. Cele Otnes, professor emerita of marketing at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, told the Post, “People want a big, poofy wedding again, but the marketplace just isn’t ready for it.” As demand meets limited supply, prices are increasing. The Post writes, “That pent-up demand, combined with too little supply, is also leading to higher price tags. Average spending on weddings rose 25 percent last year, to more than $27,000, according to the Wedding Report. Many weddings planners say they expect that cost to tick up even higher this year as companies raise prices and tack on fuel surcharges.”

Analysis & Arguments

Margaret Sullivan writes that the media is failing to convey good news on jobs (WaPo).

Marissa Hermanson writes on how the pandemic changed people’s homes (WaPo).

Jerusalem Demsas examines the state of pandemic predictions (Atlantic).

E. Tammy Kim writes favorably of the Amazon unionization effort’s independent approach (New Yorker).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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