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May 2, 2022 - Brief Issue 322
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
Covid Cases Are Up in the U.S., But Severe Illness Remains Limited (Health & Science)
Covid Deaths No Longer Overwhelmingly Among Unvaccinated (Health & Science)
Vaccines for Children Under 5 Could be Ready by June, FDA Says (Health & Science)
In Beijing, More Restrictions but No Lockdown Yet (Around the World)
Denmark Becomes First to Halt Covid Vaccination Program (Around the World)
Greece, Italy Say All Tourists Welcome for Summer Season (Around the World)
Officials Wary of Mask Mandates (U.S. Government & Politics)
White House Weighs Income Limits on Student Loan Forgiveness (U.S. Government & Politics)
Lead Sponsor: No Chance of Comprehensive Immigration Reform This Year (U.S. Government & Politics)
Fed Expected to Pursue Passive, But Faster Tightening as it Moves Away from Pandemic Stimulus (U.S. Economy)
Instacart Shoppers Say Job is Getting Harder and Slower (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 81,365,218 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 993,733 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 576,148,079 vaccine doses, with 77.6% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.2% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89% have received at least one dose, and 76.1% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 45.8% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 513,892,962 cases of coronavirus, with 6,236,824 deaths.
Covid Cases Are Up in the U.S., But Severe Illness Remains Limited
Epidemiologists believe that a recent increase in cases in the U.S. in recent weeks hasn’t sparked a commensurate surge in severe illness, but caution that risks still remain. New cases are rising in all but three states, signaling a wave that is increasing across the country (NYT) Hospitalizations are also rising in more than 30 states. “Most of the cases are relatively mild,” said Dr. Eric S. Toner, a senior scholar at the Center for Health Security at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health.
In the Northeast region, the first part of the country to see significant concentrations of the BA.2 variant, virus levels detected in wastewater appear to have flattened out in the past two weeks. Hospital admissions due to Covid-19 have risen, but remain far below levels seen during earlier surges (WSJ). Some scientists and public health experts believe that the number of Americans who have been previously infected–over 60% according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention–combined with vaccinations against the virus are leading to growing immunity.
Covid Deaths No Longer Overwhelmingly Among Unvaccinated
Throughout much of the pandemic, unvaccinated people accounted for the overwhelming majority of deaths in the United States. But in recent months, that trend has shifted; now, deaths among the vaccinated elderly and immunocompromised account for more deaths. The Washington Post explains that “the vaccinated made up 42 percent of fatalities in January and February during the highly contagious omicron variant’s surge, compared with 23 percent of the dead in September, the peak of the delta wave, according to nationwide data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.” While unvaccinated individuals remain far more likely to die from Covid-19 than vaccinated people, the rise in deaths among vulnerable populations shows the importance of booster shots and staying vigilant with hygienic measures. Nearly two-thirds of the people who died during the Omicron surge were 75 and older, according to a Post analysis, compared with a third during the delta wave.
Vaccines for Children Under 5 Could be Ready by June, FDA Says
On Friday the U.S. Food and Drug Administration announced a tentative timetable for deciding to authorize a coronavirus vaccine for the youngest age group and said that June 8 is the earliest date that it will present data to its outside advisors (NYT, WaPo). Children under five years of age are the only group not yet eligible for vaccination. According to the Times, the agency set “aside three days for its outside advisory committee to consider the pediatric vaccine applications from Moderna and Pfizer-BioNTech, and another day to debate and presumably vote on proposals to update existing vaccines so they work better against a range of coronavirus variants.”
Moderna announced on Thursday that it had asked the FDA to authorize its vaccine for children under six and said its clinical trial showed the vaccine was safe and produced an appropriate antibody response. Moderna said it would submit the rest of its data to the FDA by May 9. Pfizer and BioNTech are expected to complete their application to the FDA for authorization of its vaccine in children under five in June.
Bonus Read: “Loss of Pandemic Aid Stresses Hospitals That Treat the Uninsured,” (NYT).
Around the World
In Beijing, More Restrictions but No Lockdown Yet
Over the weekend, officials in Beijing introduced new restrictions that stopped just short of a full lockdown as cases continued to climb. There is a ban on dining in restaurants until Wednesday and as of Thursday, proof of a negative test within the last week would be required to enter public spaces and transportation. The restrictions come along with a five day holiday around Labor Day, which is traditionally a time for travel in China (CNN). There were more than 300 cases recorded in Beijing since April 22, including 59 on Saturday. Residents were fearful of a lockdown like that experienced in Shanghai recently, but “a full-scale lockdown would require enormous manpower and planning to execute smoothly,” writes the New York Times. Beijing is home to many well-educated and affluent residents who would air any resentment or discontent. “They are facing a dilemma here,” Yanzhong Huang, director of the Center for Global Health Studies at Seton Hall University, said of Beijing officials. “Any decision you make has more profound political implications compared with other cities.” But “when push comes to shove, they have to make a decision. So we cannot rule out that possibility” of a lockdown, he said. Bonus Read: “Inside China’s Zero-Covid Fortress, Xi Admits No Doubts,” (NYT).
Denmark Becomes First to Halt Covid Vaccination Program
Last week Denmark became the first country to halt its Covid-19 vaccination program, saying that the virus is now under control in the country. “Spring has arrived, vaccine coverage in the Danish population is high, and the epidemic has reversed,” the Danish Health Authority said in a statement Wednesday (CNBC). “Therefore, the National Board of Health is now ending the broad vaccination efforts against Covid-19 for this season,” it said. Everyone will be able to finish their course of vaccination but no new appointments will be scheduled from May 15. The halt is temporary with a press release reading, “The Danish Health and Medicines Authority's assessment is that there will probably be a need to vaccinate against COVID-19 again in the autumn.” The government is also continuing to provide second boosters to those who are vulnerable (abc).
Greece, Italy Say All Tourists Welcome for Summer Season
Greece and Italy both announced that many Covid-19 restrictions would be lifted before Europe’s peak summer tourist season. As of Sunday, visitors to Italy no longer need to fill out the EU passenger locator form and no one, traveler or not, will need to show a health pass that was previously required to enter restaurants, cinemas, gyms, and other venues (AP). Greece said that travelers flying into the country will no longer need to show a vaccination certificate, negative test, or proof of recovery and will only need to wear a face mask (Reuters). Greece is expecting high numbers of visitors this year and officials are predicting that revenue will return to about 80% of its 2019 level.
U.S. Government & Politics
Officials Wary of Mask Mandates
Politico reports that across the U.S., politicians and officials are wary of imposing or maintaining mask mandates (Politico). For example in New York, Politico writes, “Two-thirds of the counties in the United States flagged by the CDC as having high community levels are in upstate New York, and cases and hospitalizations are still rising, albeit at a slower pace in recent days, across the state,” but adds that unlike the last increase in cases, New York Governor Kathy Hochul and lawmakers are “taking a more hands-off approach, merely encouraging vaccinations, boosters and mask wearing, except on public transit and in certain congregate settings where masks are still required.” Hochul stated, “With the availability of vaccines, availability of home testing kits, we’re asking people to be very responsible on their own,” adding, “I don’t think [a mask mandate is] going to be necessary, but we’re watching the numbers.” Philadelphia, which as we covered was the first city to reimpose a mask mandate, backtracked after the mandate faced opposition. Pennsylvania’s Democratic Lieutenant Governor John Fetterman, who is also mounting a senate run, said he did not agree “with the imposition of the Philadelphia mask mandate.”
White House Weighs Income Limits on Student Loan Forgiveness
Citing three administration officials, the Washington Post reports that the White House is considering setting income caps for student loan forgiveness, as it considers forgiving some level of debt (WaPo). The Post writes, “The administration is considering various ways to forgive some student loan debt through executive action. In recent weeks, senior Biden aides have examined limiting the relief to people who earned less than either $125,000 or $150,000 as individual filers the previous year, the people said. That plan would set the threshold at around $250,000 or $300,000 for couples who file their taxes jointly, the people said. No final decisions have been made, and the people familiar with the matter stressed that planning was fluid and subject to change.” Biden has earlier signaled that he intends to forgive less than $50,000 per person, with administration officials suggesting he may forgive as little as $10,000 per person. The debate over student loan forgiveness comes as payments were paused due to the pandemic, with Biden recently extending the pause for what might be a final time amid pressure from lenders to restart payments.
Lead Sponsor: No Chance of Comprehensive Immigration Reform This Year
Senator Bob Menendez, Democratic Senator from New Jersey and a lead sponsor of an immigration reform bill backed by the White House said there is “Zero” chance of the bill passing this year (Politico). The likely demise of the bill’s chances is tied up with the backlash, even among Democrats, to the Biden administration’s move to end the use of the pandemic-era Title 42 authority. Politico writes, “The current intraparty schism over the Biden administration’s decision to end a pandemic-era deportation policy is dominating legislative debate on the Hill and reverberating in the nation’s toughest battleground races. It’s also a painful reminder that the Democratic dream of comprehensive immigration reform is all but dead for the foreseeable future, with ultra-slim majorities and a GOP that views broader reform as a nonstarter without addressing a rise in border crossings.”
Bonus Read: “Biden ticks up, but GOP holds advantage on economy, Post-ABC poll finds,” (WaPo).
U.S. Economy
Fed Expected to Pursue Passive, But Faster Tightening as it Moves Away from Pandemic Stimulus
The Federal Reserve is preparing to shrink its asset holdings, which expanded during the pandemic in an effort to stabilize markets, but while it will do so in a passive manner, the tightening will likely be faster than its prior effort in 2017 (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “This Wednesday, officials are to announce plans on how they will shrink those holdings. Expect the process to be faster and potentially more disruptive to financial markets than last time.” The Journal notes, “In 2017, when the Fed concluded the stimulus was no longer needed, it began to shrink its portfolio passively—that is, by allowing bonds to mature without reinvesting the proceeds, rather than actively selling them in the open market.” However, the Journal notes that though passive, this new round of tightening will be different, writing, it “will be bigger and faster than five years ago. Then, nervous about how runoff would work, officials imposed a low, $10 billion cap on monthly runoff and slowly increased that cap to $50 billion over the course of a year. Officials have recently indicated that in this go-round, they would allow $95 billion in securities to mature every month—$60 billion in Treasurys and $35 billion in mortgage-backed securities—nearly double the caps from last time. Runoff is likely to start in June and reach the new caps in just a couple months instead of a year.” The difference in approach is closely tied to fear of the impact of high inflation.
Bonus Read: “As Inflation Eases Public Debt Load, Economists Sound Cautionary Note,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Instacart Shoppers Say Job is Getting Harder and Slower
The Wall Street Journal reports that Instacart shoppers, who saw work expand massively during the pandemic, are now saying that their jobs are getting harder and that demand is slowing (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Instacart workers, who fulfill online orders for consumers, say their jobs have become more difficult and less lucrative as they see fewer, smaller orders than they did earlier in the pandemic. Some said they are increasingly competing against other so-called shoppers, waiting around for orders or driving to neighborhoods where they are more likely to find work.” “I used to see big batches. I never see that now” said one shopper who had worked for Instacart since 2017. The Journal notes, “In recent months, she said, she has been making more money delivering orders for Amazon.com Inc.”
Bonus Read: “Global Supply Chain Woes Reach America’s Amish Furniture Makers,” (WSJ).
Analysis & Arguments
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