Relief from pandemic-driven economic volatility is still waiting offshore. Forecasters have slashed their expectations for growth in the first quarter, the WSJ’s Harriet Torry and Anthony DeBarros report, as businesses juggle labor and production disruptions while the latest Covid-19 wave and high inflation weigh on consumer markets. Economists surveyed this month by The Wall Street Journal cut their outlook for U.S. growth to a 3% annual rate from an earlier forecast of 4.2%. Concerns about limited supply remain a cloud over the outlook, forecasters say. Bottlenecks may continue in part due to China’s zero-tolerance pandemic strategy, which has led to disruptions at ports and factories. New Omicron outbreaks in Shanghai and Shenzhen dim the outlook further. More than half of economists expect supply-chain disruptions to persist into the second half of this year, with a third expecting them to continue until 2023 or later.

Supply chains in the global automotive sector are headed in two very separate directions. Luxury brands including Rolls-Royce, Bentley, Porsche and BMW are reporting record sales, the WSJ’s William Boston reports, while sales of mainstream vehicles lag behind and supply-chain disruptions cripple a swath of car production. The gap is in part the result of the diverging economic impact of the pandemic: Rolls-Royce executive Martin Fritsches says many of the company’s customers have been sheltered from the hardships of the pandemic and have money to spend on luxury goods. Auto makers also have cut production of many vehicles because of the semiconductor shortage and put more resources into their most expensive and profitable vehicles. The manufacturers are protecting their margins, part of a broader trend in business in which companies from retailers to freight carriers are focused on yield rather than simple sales volume.

The squeeze on agricultural commodities is reaching the breakfast table. Government forecasters are projecting the smallest Florida orange crop since World War II, the WSJ’s Kirk Maltais reports, pushing a sharp increase in juice futures that were already at their highest level in years. The crop has been hit by a disease spread by invasive tree lice, marking the latest assault on a sector that has been bruised by declining demand during the pandemic. Americans have shifted to less sugary drinks in the past two years, and now citrus-bearing acreage in Florida is down by about half since 2001. This year’s crop may be the smallest since Hurricane Irma ravaged groves in 2017, a dramatic illustration of the forces that are reshaping longstanding commodities supply chains. The impact of drought, disease and changing consumer demand is complicating relationships between agricultural suppliers, buyers and traders.

China’s economy expanded 8.1% last year despite slowing growth in the last months of 2021. (WSJ)

U.S. retail sales fell 1.9% in December, including an 8.7% drop in the category including e-commerce. (WSJ)

U.S. industrial production slipped 0.1% in December in the first decline since September. (MarketWatch)

Germany estimates its economy shrank between 0.5% and 1% in the fourth quarter. (WSJ)

China’s goods exports rose 30% last year to a record $3.36 trillion. (WS)

U.S. business inventories expanded 1.2% in November. (MarketWatch)

China is canceling rising numbers of U.S. passenger flights as it intensifies efforts to fight Covid-19. (WSJ)

Consumer-goods supplier Unilever is buying GSK Consumer Healthcare as it pushes further into health, beauty and hygiene products. (WSJ)

Union Pacific says it may stop operating in Los Angeles County, Calif., following a sharp spike in thefts from containers in freight rail yards. (CNN)

Contract manufacturer Compal Electronics suspended production at a Taiwan factory after an Omicron outbreak. (Nikkei Asia)

China’s semiconductor production rose 33% last year while imports increased 23.,6%. (South China Morning Post)

Hundreds of British construction businesses are failing every month amid rising materials prices and a shrinking pool of workers. (Financial Times)

J.B. Hunt will work with Waymo to bring the self-driving truck company’s technology to Hunt’s fleet. (Barron’s)

Maersk Line raised its 2021 earnings outlook as an 80% increase in shipping rates in the fourth quarter offset declining container volume. (Splash 247)

Freight rates for the dry-bulk sector’s largest capesize vessels are declining at a steep pace. (Lloyd’s List)

SeaCube Containers is suing a customer for $16.6 million over 740 leased containers that haven’t been returned. (TradeWinds)

Container throughput at the Port of Singapore fell 2.2% in December, leaving shipments up 1.6% for the year. (Port Technology)

Tesla will start sourcing graphite for its electric-car batteries from Mozambique. (Associated Press)

Freight booking platform Freightos acquired rate management firm 7LFreight. (PYMNTS)

IBM is acquiring Envizi, a supply-chain data and analytics firm focused on tracking environmental performance. (DC Velocity)

A drought-driven barley shortage is triggering higher beer prices in California. (San Francisco Chronicle)

Paul Page is editor of WSJ Logistics Report. Write to him at paul.page@wsj.com.

Follow the WSJ Logistics Report team: @PaulPage, @jensmithWSJ, and @pdberger. and @LydsOneal. Follow the WSJ Logistics Report on Twitter at @WSJLogistics.