Good morning, 

My latest column, "What I Learned When I Stopped Watching the Stock Market," was about how my perspective changed when I tuned out the news for seven months. Stocks and bonds and just about every other major asset and economic indicator heaved up and down, and I never noticed. As a result, I never felt any anxiety, either.

I argued that you can simulate my Rip Van Winkle-like experience by engaging in "mental time travel" and a dialogue with your future self.

Reader Bob Duvall commented:

Mike Hennessy emailed:
Your idea of taking a "leave" from the daily financial news cycle reminds me that during the 2008 crash, I stopped opening my retirement statements for more than a year—one of the best financial decisions I ever made: financial hibernation.

That's what researchers have christened "the ostrich effect": Instead of checking your account values all the time the way you did during good markets, you effectively stick your head in the sand and stop looking.

Of course, as Bob Duvall pointed out, the wisdom of this behavior is contingent on whether markets do eventually recover.

And markets don't come with money-back guarantees.

Being an ostrich has usually paid off, over the long run, in the U.S. It wouldn't have worked in Japan, where investors have waited more than 34 years (so far) to regain the highs of 1989. Nor did investing ostriches thrive in the U.S. between 1929 and 1954 or 1966 and 1982.

One of my deepest-held beliefs is that investing is about probabilities, not certainties.

And, although it isn't certain that a rising stock market will build your wealth even if you pay little or no attention to it, it is probable.

Reader James White's comment took this conviction to the next level and made me laugh:

Finally, Yoram Ariely emailed:
I created a system that fits me perfectly to avoid trading in my portfolio. Simple and effective. I moved 4% of my money to a day-trading account and trade/gamble almost daily. I do not bother with the remaining 96% of my investments. I have very little interest in it except for periodic evaluations. This totally satisfies my trading craving.

That's a perfect application of a technique advocated by Benjamin Graham in his book The Intelligent Investor, from which this newsletter takes its name.

Graham wrote:
If you want to try your luck at [speculative trading], put aside a portion—the smaller the better—of your capital in a separate fund for this purpose. Never add more money to this account just because the market has gone up and profits are rolling in. (That’s the time to think of taking money out of your speculative fund.) Never mingle your speculative and investment operations in the same account, nor in any part of your thinking.

Note Graham's two uses of the word "never." Ignore his warnings at your peril!

What if you could write a letter to your past self? What have you learned about investing that you wish you had known when you were younger? What would you tell the younger version of yourself if you could?

As for me, I wish I could persuade my much younger self to take his eyes off the rear-view mirror while he was investing.

Back in the late 1980s and the early 1990s, I repeatedly bought mutual funds that had generated high returns in the past: Fidelity Select American Gold, Invesco Industrial Income, the Lindner Fund, Twentieth Century Select.

It took me years to realize I was wasting time and money chasing returns that were no longer there. My past self could have learned a lot from my present self -- and my present self would be a lot wealthier, in more ways than one.

To share your thoughts, just reply to this email. Please include your name and location. Responses may be edited for brevity and clarity.

Be well and invest well,

Jason

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PROPHECY, n. The art and practice of selling one’s credibility for future delivery.
—Ambrose Bierce, The Devil’s Dictionary