Click here to subscribe to the daily brief.

June 16, 2022 - Brief Issue 338

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

The brief will be on hiatus June 20-21 to mark Juneteenth.

Please consider making a donation to support our ongoing analysis of the most important news and headlines surrounding Covid-19.​

Top Headlines

U.S. Cases Leveling Off After Surge (Health & Science)

FDA Poised to Approve Vaccines for Young Children (Health & Science)

U.K. Food Prices Could Hit 15%  (Around the World)

In China, Migrant Workers Hit the Hardest by Lockdowns (Around the World)

South Korea Truckers’ Strike Ends (Around the World)

Mayors Use Free Transit to Bring People Downtown, Face Challenges (U.S. Government & Politics)

Fed Raises Interest Rates .75 Points (U.S. Economy)

U.S. Home Equity Hits Record High (U.S. Economy)

Realtor.Com Expects Home Prices, Mortgage Rates to Stabilize (U.S. Economy)

U.S. Retail Sales Fall in May Amid Inflation (U.S. Economy)

Health & Science

There have been 85,941,856 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,012,607 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 591,982,644 vaccine doses, with 78.1% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.8% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.4% have received at least one dose, and 76.8% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 47.2% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 25.2% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 537,442,307 cases of coronavirus, with 6,314,705 deaths.

U.S. Cases Leveling Off After Surge

New coronavirus cases in the United States have leveled off in recent weeks even as new Omicron subvariants continue to circulate. Over 105,000 new cases have been recorded a day, on average, for the past month and although that is an undercount as more people are turning to at-home testing, the rate has held steady (NYT). Other indicators are also steadying: hospitalizations are still growing, but slowly, and deaths have stayed below 400 a day for several weeks. 

“We seem to be plateauing right now,” said Jennifer Nuzzo, a professor of epidemiology and the inaugural director of the Pandemic Center at Brown University’s School of Public Health, who is monitoring the spread of two new Omicron subvariants, BA.4 and BA.5. “What is a little unclear to me is whether BA.4, BA.5, is going to see another bump,” she said. “But my best guess is we are not going to see another giant peak until possibly later in the summer for the southern states, and the fall and winter.”

FDA Poised to Approve Vaccines for Young Children

On Wednesday an expert advisory panel to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration voted unanimously to recommend both Pfizer and Moderna vaccines for the youngest children. Moderna’s vaccine will most likely be approved for children under 6 and Pfizer’s will be approved for those under 5 as soon as Friday. White House officials said that shots could be rolled out as early as next week. The roughly 20 million children under 5 are the only remaining group without access to coronavirus vaccines (NYT). 

Bonus Read: “Mystery of Black Death’s Origins Solved, Say Researchers,” (Guardian).

Around the World

U.K. Food Prices Could Hit 15%   

The U.K. is facing the highest food price rise in more than 20 years.  Grocery trade body IGD warned that the U.K. could see a 15% increase in food prices this summer (Guardian). The inflation of food prices is linked to Covid production lockdowns in China, export bans in Indonesia and India, high fuel prices, Russia’s war on Ukraine, and specific to the U.K. – Brexit. As a result of inflation, not just in food prices but fuel and electricity costs, the U.K. has also seen its average wages fall at the fastest rate in 20 years.

In China, Migrant Workers Hit the Hardest by Lockdowns

Over the past two months, lockdowns in Shanghai and Beijing have restricted millions of people to their homes and halted almost all economic and social activities. The lockdowns were particularly difficult for the 292 million Chinese migrant workers across urban areas of the country (Guardian). Migrant workers were left without work entirely and did not receive any government assistance, and even as the lockdowns end and society reopens, people are still hesitant to invite strangers into their homes to perform work. Many migrant workers can’t afford to go home because they would have to quarantine for two weeks, meaning more time without work. 

South Korea Truckers’ Strike Ends

The South Korean government and truckers struck a deal late on Tuesday to end a weeklong strike that had further snarled supply chains in Asia. The truckers were striking to extend a minimum wage plan and had been on strike for just over a week. The new deal ensures that the transport ministry extends a minimum-wage plan that had been set to expire at the end of this year. The ministry will also continue discussions about expanding the plan’s coverage to other types of cargo and review the expansion of fuel subsidies (WSJ). The strike had delayed cargo shipments and deliveries and had cost steel, automobile, and petrochemical industries about 1.6 trillion won ($1.2 million). 

U.S. Government & Politics

Mayors Use Free Transit to Bring People Downtown, Face Challenges

Politico reports that mayors across the country are making public transit free or reducing prices in an effort to encourage people to return to downtown areas (Politico). In Boston, Mayor Michelle Wu acted quickly to take such action. Politico writes, “Wu once led a citywide revolution against public transit fare hikes. But what she really wanted was to make the system free. Within her first 24 hours as mayor last fall, Wu filed the paperwork to make it happen on three key bus routes — a big milestone in her quixotic quest to ‘free the T,’ the colloquial name for Boston’s public transit system.” However, Wu is not alone, Politico reports, “Wu is following a long line of city leaders spanning from Kansas City, Mo., to Olympia, Wash., and several jurisdictions in the D.C. area that have pursued a similar policy in hopes of improving equity and boosting ridership.” While the pandemic has driven interest in such moves, it has also brought challenges. Politico notes, “The pandemic added another layer of urgency to her argument: Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority ridership is still at just half of its pre-Covid levels. Hybrid work models and new variants have kept people and businesses from returning to Boston and other downtowns.” Politico also notes that free transit efforts have struggled to get riders to shift to transit if they were already driving, and that for many low-income riders the key issue is more the frequency of buses not the price.

Bonus Read: “Tension over role of racism in public health strains Va. agency under Youngkin,” (WaPo).

U.S. Economy

Fed Raises Interest Rates .75 Points

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates .75 points, the largest increase since 1994 (AP). As we covered in yesterday’s brief, the size of the increase was a bit of a surprise with most watchers expecting a .5 point increase based on prior comments from the Fed, but reports began to suggest a larger increase was likely, as reports early in the week suggested a continuing, significant inflation issue.

U.S. Home Equity Hits Record High

The total amount of U.S. home equity hit a record high of $27.8 trillion, according to data from the Federal Reserve (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Total U.S. home equity increased almost 20% in the first quarter to $27.8 trillion, a record high, according to the Federal Reserve. The increase is another consequence of a red-hot housing market. Double-digit price gains have driven some would-be homeowners out of the market. At the same time, rising home values are boosting the finances of the Americans who already own them.” Over the pandemic, the housing market has run hot with significant price increases. The Journal notes, “Home equity generally rises alongside home values over time. In the U.S., total equity fell by about 42% between 2005 and 2012, when millions of Americans ended up owing more on their mortgages than their homes were worth. Total equity has been increasing steadily since 2012, and the first quarter’s 20% jump is the largest since 2013.”

Realtor.Com Expects Home Prices, Mortgage Rates to Stabilize

On Monday Realtor.com updated its 2022 forecast, and predicted that mortgage rates and home prices should begin to stabilize (WaPo). The Washington Post notes that the update assesses, “Buyer demand is expected to cool over the summer, but most markets will remain in favor of sellers.” Other assessments included, “Median home prices are expected to rise 6.6 percent year-over-year in 2022 compared with last year, which is far less than the double-digit increases seen this year but well above the original forecast of a 2.9 percent increase” and “Near-record home sales are anticipated for 2022, lagging only behind the number of homes sold in 2021. Still, the new forecast is for 6.7 percent fewer sales in 2022. The original Realtor.com forecast anticipated a 6.6 percent increase in sales compared with 2021.”

U.S. Retail Sales Fall in May Amid Inflation

U.S. retail sales fell in May, according to data released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Americans’ retail spending declined in May, as consumers felt the pinch from inflation, higher gasoline prices and rising interest rates. Retail sales—a measure of spending at stores, online and in restaurants—fell a seasonally adjusted 0.3% in May from the previous month, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. That was the first decline in month-over-month retail spending this year.” The Journal notes, “A sharp drop in vehicle sales—due to high prices, low inventory and rising interest rates on car loans—played an outsize role in the decline in month-over-month retail spending. Consumers also pulled back their spending on goods such as furniture, electronics and online purchases.” 

Bonus Read: “Lego to Spend $1 Billion on New U.S. Factory,” (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Allan Sloan writes the stock market plunge is not a sign of a coming recession (WaPo).

Michael Brendan Dougherty argues against retaining Covid restrictions (National Review).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

About New America

New America is dedicated to renewing the promise of America by continuing the quest to realize our nation's highest ideals. Read the rest of our story, or see what we've been doing recently in our latest Annual Report. 

Help us to continue advancing policy solutions and journalism by making a donation to New America.