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June 8, 2022 - Brief Issue 333
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
FDA Advisors Recommend Authorizing Novavax (Health & Science)
World Bank Warns of Stagflation (Around the World)
While World’s Aid Focuses on Coronavirus, Hundreds Die in Somalia from Famine (Around the World)
Covid Adds Stress to Chinese College Exams (Around the World)
DeSantis Wins Straw Poll of Western Conservatives (U.S. Government & Politics)
Yellen Tells Lawmakers Inflation Likely to Remain High, Defends Pandemic Spending (U.S. Government & Politics)
Rising Interest Rates Help Slow Commercial Property Sales (U.S. Economy)
Travelers Will Face Difficulties Flying to Smaller Cities (U.S. Society)
Class Reunions Return (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 85,008,228 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,009,338 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 589,654,645 vaccine doses, with 78% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.7% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.4% have received at least one dose, and 76.7% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 46.9% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 23.7% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 533,136,234 cases of coronavirus, with 6,302,554 deaths.
FDA Advisors Recommend Authorizing Novavax
On Tuesday a federal advisory committee unanimously voted to recommend that regulators authorize Novavax’s Covid-19 vaccine. If the Food and Drug Administration accepts the panel’s recommendation, the two-dose Novavax shot would be the fourth vaccine to be approved in the United States (NYT). The FDA also needs to sign off on Novavax’s manufacturing process, which has had some hiccups over the past two years. The Novavax vaccine relies on a more traditional technology and contains nanoparticles of proteins from the surface of the coronavirus. Some public health experts hoped that the different technology in Novavax’s shot would appeal to vaccine holdouts who were waiting for a more tried-and-true approach as protein-based vaccines have been in use for decades (Reuters).
Around the World
World Bank Warns of Stagflation
On Tuesday the World Bank warned that the global economy may be headed for weak growth and rising prices for years to come, a condition known as “stagflation” (WaPo). The bank slashed its annual global growth forecast to 2.9%, down from the 4.1% it predicted in January and said “subdued growth will likely persist throughout the decade because of weak investment in most of the world.” Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has further aggravated the supply chain issues brought about by the coronavirus pandemic. The slump is the sharpest the global economy has seen in more than 80 years. “The risk from stagflation is considerable with potentially destabilizing consequences for low- and middle-income economies,” said David Malpass, president of the multilateral development institution in Washington (NYT). “ … There’s a severe risk of malnutrition and of deepening hunger and even of famine in some areas.”
While World’s Aid Focuses on Coronavirus, Hundreds Die in Somalia from Famine
The Horn of Africa is at risk of experiencing an “explosion of child deaths,” UNICEF said on Tuesday as humanitarian assistance is being directed to global crises like the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia’s war in Ukraine. A fifth straight rainy season might fail in Somalia, meaning farmers cannot plant their crops and millions of the livestock that provide milk and meat have died. At the same time, prices for wheat and cooking oil are rising because of the war in Ukraine, making staples inaccessible for millions of families. The humanitarian group Action Against Hunger said it is seeing the highest admission rates to its hunger treatment centers in Somalia since it began its work there in 1992. The number of severely malnourished children is up 55% from last year. “We know from experience that mortality rises suddenly when all the conditions are in place — displacement, disease outbreaks, malnutrition — all of which we are currently seeing in Somalia,” said Biram Ndiaye, UNICEF Somalia’s chief of nutrition (AP).
Covid Adds Stress to Chinese College Exams
“GaoKao,” China’s notoriously grueling three-day college entrance exam, is stressful enough for students but the coronavirus pandemic and recent lockdowns have added a new layer of difficulty for many students. Under the country’s strict zero-covid policy, a single case at a school could put every student into quarantine, meaning an outbreak could derail college hopes for many students. As a precaution, schools across the country sealed themselves off for weeks before the gaokao. In Shenzhen, China, students spent 40 days locked down in their high school so they could take the exam. Teachers were also barred from leaving campus. Around 120 students are taking the exam from quarantine centers and 700 students are taking it from some other sort of lockdown, according to China’s Ministry of Education (WaPo). Authorities are concerned that the gaokao will become a superspreader event as it is the largest mass gathering to occur in months; a record 11.93 million students are taking it this year.
U.S. Government & Politics
DeSantis Wins Straw Poll of Western Conservatives
In a sign of growing strength as a potential challenger to Donald Trump for the Republican nomination, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis won a straw poll of Western conservatives (Politico). Politico writes, “Over the weekend, DeSantis topped Trump in the annual Western Conservative Summit’s straw poll, with 71 percent of participants wanting the Florida governor to run for president in 2024 compared to 67 percent for Trump. The next closest was 28 percent for Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas).” DeSantis also won the straw poll in 2021. Politico notes, “That straw poll comes on the heels of DeSantis also running neck-and-neck with Trump in a new University of Nevada, Reno survey asking voters in the state to rate potential 2024 candidates. DeSantis received the highest favorability score of any Republican with all voters — 48 percent compared to Trump’s 42 percent — but was bested by Trump, 73-69, when just Republicans were counted.” DeSantis has drawn attention as a possible challenger to Trump in part as a result of his very public stance of opposing pandemic-related restrictions, which he framed as an effort to keep the state’s economy running.
Yellen Tells Lawmakers Inflation Likely to Remain High, Defends Pandemic Spending
Testifying before the Senate Finance Committee, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen told lawmakers that she expects inflation to remain high over the long-term, but also defended the administration’s decisions regarding pandemic spending (WSJ, NYT). Yellen, who made waves when she told the media that her earlier predictions about the staying power of inflation had proven wrong - albeit in part due to new events - told lawmakers, “I do expect inflation to remain high, although I very much hope that it will be coming down now.” She added, “The numbers aren’t locked in, but it’s likely to be higher.” However, Yellen strongly defended the government’s pandemic spending including the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan (ARP), telling lawmakers, “I believe that ARP played a central role in driving strong growth throughout 2021 and afterward, with the United States real GDP growth outpacing other advanced economies and our labor market recovering faster relative to historical experience.” Republicans have identified record levels of inflation as a weakness for the Democrats’ electoral chances, and have sought to tie the inflation to among other things the level of spending.
U.S. Economy
Bonus Read: “How Covid threatens the left’s win at the Fed,” (Politico).
Rising Interest Rates Help Slow Commercial Property Sales
In a substantial shift in trend, commercial property sales slowed in April, a change related to increasing interest rates (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal reports, “Property sales were $39.4 billion in April, which was down 16% compared with the same month a year ago, according to MSCI Real Assets. The decline followed 13 consecutive months of increases.” The Journal adds, “Hotels, office buildings, senior housing and industrial properties recorded big drops in sales. Sales of other property types, such as retail and apartments, rose in April, but analysts and brokers said activity may be now slowing in those sectors, too, as rising interest rates keep some investors from making competitive offers.” The Journal attributes the change compared to the booming market for much of the pandemic to interest rates, writing, “Now, with interest rates considerably higher—the yield on 10-year Treasury notes, a common benchmark for commercial mortgages, has nearly doubled this year—property investors that rely on large amounts of debt have been some of the first ones to fall out of the market, brokers and investors said. In some cases, investors are finding that with the increased cost to borrow, their near-term rate of return runs below the interest rate on their mortgage. Lenders, in turn, are now tightening their standards for more-speculative deals, brokers said.” Bonus Read: “Blackstone, Other Large Private-Equity Firms Turn Attention to Vast Retail Market,” (WSJ).
Bonus Read: “Target Warns of Weaker Profit as it Faces Overstuffed Stores, Inflation-Weary Shoppers,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Travelers Will Face Difficulties Flying to Smaller Cities
As people plan summer travels, the Wall Street Journal reports that travelers planning to fly into small cities may face particular difficulties (WSJ). Even though airlines expect a surge in travel, the Journal reports, “A growing number of small airports have fewer flights, and some are at risk of losing service altogether. The regional airlines that serve them can’t hold on to pilots, who are getting snapped up by bigger carriers.” The Journal adds, “Thirty airports in the continental U.S. have lost at least half the departures they had in 2019, according to an analysis of schedule data by Airline Data Inc.” The issue is rooted in large part in the pandemic’s impact on the industry with many pilots and staff having retired during the pandemic while relaxed restrictions and exhaustion over social distancing are generating increased demand for travel. The impact on regional airlines and small airports could be substantial for the broader industry. The Journal notes, “Regional airlines play a major role in U.S. air travel. They operate more than 40% of U.S. passenger flights, often flying on behalf of major airlines and helping to feed traffic into big hubs in Chicago, Atlanta and Dallas. For many small communities, flights operated by regional carriers are their only link to the broader aviation network. According to the Regional Airline Association, about two-thirds of U.S. airports with scheduled passenger service rely exclusively on regional carriers, including 235 in the continental U.S.”
Class Reunions Return
The Wall Street Journal reports that class reunions are returning across the country after many were delayed or canceled due to the pandemic, and that in many places, interest is surpassing its pre-pandemic levels (WSJ). The Journal writes, “Reunion season, which usually runs from late spring to early fall, is about 25% busier than it would be in a typical year prepandemic for Fran McLean, founder and owner of Maryland-based Five Star Reunions. Cyndi Clamp, who runs St. Louis-based reunion planning company Varsity Reunions, says she is working on approximately 65 reunions this season, up from seven last year and just one in 2020.” However, reunions can also bring anxiety, and the Journal notes that the result is a complex interaction, writing, “Psychologists say people are balancing this yearning for social engagement and interaction with reality that this particular type of gathering can be a breeding ground for anxiety.” Here too, the pandemic may be having an impact with the Journal writing, “As a whole, social anxiety has increased during the pandemic. Concern over how others view changes in their appearance, such as weight fluctuation or aging, or professional success can feel more intense given the pandemic.”
Analysis & Arguments
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