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December 6, 2021 - Brief Issue 268

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

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Top Headlines

U.S. Health Authorities Track Omicron’s Early Spread (Health & Science)

U.S. Close to Vaccinating 200 Million People (Health & Science)

Omicron Possibly More Infectious Because it Shares Genetic Code with Common Cold (Health & Science)

Study: Omicron May Be Milder Than Other Variants (Health & Science)

Study Finds Pfizer, Moderna Work Best as Boosters (Health & Science)

Britain and Denmark Report Rise in Omicron Cases (Around the World)

Romania Reports First Omicron Case (Around the World)

Protest in Vienna Against Coronavirus Rules (Around the World)

Fauci: U.S. Reviewing South Africa Travel Ban, Hopes to Lift It (U.S. Government & Politics)

Omicron Variant Hits Small Cap Stocks (U.S. Economy)

Health & Science

There have been 49,086,840 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 788,364 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 470,297,846 vaccine doses, with 75.5% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 71% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 83.4% have received at least one dose, and 71.5% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 23.3% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 265,943,808 cases of coronavirus, with 5,258,157 deaths.

U.S. Health Authorities Track Omicron’s Early Spread

In the U.S., health officials have been tracking the spread of the Omicron variant, finding that the virus has been circulating in the country before it was officially discovered by South African scientists. Officials traced the variant back as far as the end of November and linked it to an anime convention in New York City. An attendee of that convention, a resident of Minnesota, contracted the virus after arriving back home and officials detected Omicron’s telltale mutations in his lab work. Those results were announced by the Minnesota health authorities on Dec. 2 and as of now it is the earliest known case of the Omicron variant in the country. But detection of the variant came a full 10 days after the end of the convention, leaving health officials scrambling to catch up on contact tracing. According to the New York Times: “New York City health officials have sent tens of thousands of emails and text messages to the convention attendees, urging them to get tested. But so far the authorities have yet to confirm any transmission of Omicron at the Anime NYC convention, which was held Nov. 19-21. It is possible that the convention contributed little to Omicron’s spread. But it appears more likely that the virus is once again outpacing a public health response that is simply unable to keep up.”

U.S. Close to Vaccinating 200 Million People

The United States is close to having vaccinated 200 million people against the coronavirus, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. As of Saturday, 198 million people were fully vaccinated, which accounts for about 60% of the total population. More than 45 million had also received additional doses.  Many vaccination clinics and local officials are reporting delays in appointment bookings and long lines as booster eligibility was recently expanded. Officials say the Omicron variant has also prompted more people to get vaccinated recently (NYT). Bonus Read: “The most-vaccinated big counties in America are beating the worst of the coronavirus,” (WaPo).

Omicron Possibly More Infectious Because it Shares Genetic Code with Common Cold

According to a new preliminary study, the new variant, Omicron, could have greater transmissibility but lower virulence than other variants of the coronavirus because it picked up genetic material from another virus that causes the common cold (WaPo). According to the Post, “Researchers from Nference, a Cambridge, Mass.-based firm that analyzes biomedical information, sequenced omicron and found a snippet of genetic code that is also present in a virus that can bring about a cold. They say this particular mutation could have occurred in a host simultaneously infected by SARS-CoV-2, also known as the novel coronavirus, and the HCoV-229E coronavirus, which can cause the common cold. The shared genetic code with HCoV-229E has not been detected in other novel coronavirus variants, the scientists said.” The study is in preprint and has not been peer-reviewed, but the similarity between omicron and HCoV-229E is “striking,” according to Venky Soundararajan, a biological engineer who co-wrote the study. “By virtue of omicron adopting this insertion … it is essentially taking a leaf out of the seasonal coronaviruses’ page, which [explains] … how it lives and transmits more efficiently with human beings,” he said.

Study: Omicron May Be Milder Than Other Variants

A new study done by health workers and scientists in South Africa hints that the Omicron variant could be milder than previous strains of the coronavirus. The Wall Street Journal explains, “In a report published by the South African Medical Research Council, doctors at a hospital complex in Tshwane at the center of the Omicron outbreak in South Africa’s Gauteng province said that of 42 people being treated for Covid-19 on Dec. 2, 70% didn’t need oxygen to breathe normally and of those that did, nine were suffering from Covid-19-induced pneumonia and the remaining four were on supplemental oxygen for underlying conditions unrelated to Covid-19.” The overall low number of severe cases and deaths from covid-19 “constitutes a very different picture compared to the beginning of previous waves” though the report warned that more time to study the variant was needed. “Overall the disease has appeared to be milder, but these are very early days,” Willem Hanekom, director of the Africa Health Research Institute and co-chairman of a consortium investigating variants in South Africa, said in an interview Sunday with the British Broadcasting Corp. Bonus Read: “How scary is omicron? Scientists are racing to find answers,” (WaPo).

Study Finds Pfizer, Moderna Work Best as Boosters

New research on the safety and efficacy of coronavirus vaccines, published Thursday in British journal the Lancet, looks at how to “optimize selection of booster vaccines” by examining people who initially took two doses of either the Pfizer-BioNTech or the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine. The study, led by scientists at the University of Southampton, found that most vaccines are safe to use as boosters and improve immunity against the virus, but the mRNA vaccines by pharmaceutical company Pfizer and partner BioNTech and another by Moderna appear to provide the highest level of antibodies after 28 days. The study said that other vaccines could be just as effective but take longer to build up immunity. While the two mRNA vaccines produced the biggest antibody boost at 28 days, “the vaccines work in different ways,” infectious-diseases professor Saul Faust of Britain’s National Institute for Health Research, who led the trial, told The Washington Post on Friday. “The other vaccines are … still a massive boost compared to what was already protecting us,” he said. In the United States, the Biden administration is encouraging more people to get the extra booster shot and has endorsed the “mix-and-match” approach.

Around the World

Britain and Denmark Report Rise in Omicron Cases

Over the weekend Britain and Denmark each reported a rise in confirmed cases of the new Omicron variant. Britain’s health agency said there were 86 new cases on Sunday, bringing the total number of cases up to 246. In Denmark, health authorities confirmed 183 new cases of the variant, more than triple the number of suspected cases reported on Friday and called them “worrying” (NYT). Both Britain and Denmark are leaders in genomic sequencing and testing, which has allowed them to quickly track and trace the new variant. The increase in cases is fueling anxiety across Europe, which is “the epicenter” of the pandemic at the moment, according to the World Health Organization.  

Romania Reports First Omicron Case

On Saturday Romania’s health ministry said it had detected the first two cases of the Omicron variant. The cases were among two Romanians who were in South Africa and returned to the country on Nov. 30 (Reuters). Romania introduced travel bans for non-European Union citizens arriving from several African states and has sent planes to return Romanians stranded by cancelled flights. Romania is the second-least vaccinated country in the European Union. 

South Africa’s Struggle to Vaccinate Residents Exacerbated by Omicron

For much of this year, South Africa’s vaccination campaign has been sluggish due to a lack of doses and public skepticism; only about a quarter of the country’s population is fully vaccinated (WSJ).  But in the six days ending on Saturday, 884,025 people were newly vaccinated with more than half of those getting their first dose. That’s an increase of 41% over the previous week, but it’s still low compared to the government’s target of 2.45 million doses weekly. Now, with the Omicron variant spreading across the country, infections are rising rapidly and the World Health Organization is urging people to get vaccinated. On Sunday, South Africa reported 16,366 new infections, up from 116 on Nov. 8, when the first known case of Omicron emerged in the country. Distrust in vaccines and public skepticism has not been sufficiently address by the government, according to health activists and vaccination experts, who say misinformation has run rampant.  

Protest in Vienna Against Coronavirus Rules

In the second weekend of mass protesting over the Austrian government’s decision to impose strict lockdown measures, over 40,000 people took to the streets in Vienna (NYT). While the police said the protest was largely peaceful, there were some arrests and some protestors launched pyrotechnic objects. The far-right Freedom Party, which is the third-largest group in Parliament, has been spearheading the opposition to the newest pandemic measures by spreading doubt about the effectiveness of vaccines and conspiracy theories (Reuters). Cases have declined sharply since Nov. 22, when Austria reimposed a lockdown. Austria has announced that Covid-19 vaccinations will become mandatory as of Feb. 1. 

Germany Plans to Make Vaccination Compulsory for Some Professions

The incoming German government is planning to make covid-19 vaccinations mandatory for people working in hospitals, nursing homes, and other medical practices beginning March 16 (Reuters). Germany has not made vaccines compulsory yet because of concerns about a shortage of medical and nursing home staff, but surging rates of infections have prompted new measures. Authorities are attempting to vaccinate or offer boosters to 30 million people before Christmas and as part of that effort, dentists, veterinarians, and pharmacists will soon be allowed to administer vaccines, too.  

South Korea Sees Record Number of Cases, Deaths

South Korea broke its daily records for coronavirus deaths and infections once again over the weekend while also confirming more cases of the new omicron variant (VOA). On Saturday, the country’s health agency reported 5,352 new cases -- the third time in a week that the daily tally was over 5,000. The death toll rose to 3,809, also a record. South Korea now requires all travelers arriving from abroad to be quarantined for at least 10 days regardless of vaccination status and banned short-term travelers arriving from nine African nations.

U.S. Government & Politics

Fauci: U.S. Reviewing South Africa Travel Ban, Hopes to Lift It

On Sunday, top White House medical adviser Anthony Fauci stated that the government is reviewing its travel ban on South Africa and other southern African countries and hopes to lift it soon (Politico). Fauci told CNN, “When the ban was put on, it was put to give us time to figure out just what is going on. Now, as you mentioned, as we‘re getting more and more information about cases in our own country and worldwide, we are looking at that very carefully on a daily basis.” He added regarding the Omicron variant, “Thus far, though it's too early to really make any definitive statements about it, thus far, it does not look like there's a great degree of severity to it.” According to Fauci, the government hopes to lift the ban “within a reasonable amount of time.”

Massachusetts GOP Worries About Death Spiral Following Governor Baker Refusal to Run Again

Politico reports that the Massachusetts Republican party is concerned about its existence, following the decision of Massachusetts’ current Republican governor and lieutenant governor announced they will not run for reelection in 2022 (Politico). As we covered last week, Governor Charlie Baker and Lieutenant Governor Karyn Polito announced that they would not run for reelection citing a desire to focus on the state’s recovery from the pandemic and amid questions about whether Baker could win in a Republican primary. Former Massachusetts GOP state party chair Jennifer Nassour, who supports Baker, told Politico, “It’s a battle for the soul of the party,” adding, “And I don’t think it was while there was still hope that Charlie was going to run.” Politico writes, “Republicans have clung to relevancy in this bluest of blue state through a long line of moderate governors, including one-time presidential nominee and sitting Utah Sen. Mitt Romney, who appealed across party lines even as Democratic supermajorities in the state Legislature continued to grow. But Trump’s rise splintered the party, pitting a popular governor who repudiated Trump against a conservative state party chair who embraced the former president and his rhetoric. Now that power struggle is turning into an all-out war without Baker or Lt. Gov. Karyn Polito, who also passed on a 2022 run, to keep things in check.” Anthony Amore, a former Republican nominee for secretary of state, told Politico, “The Massachusetts GOP is, in my estimation, in a bad place — riddled with conflict, declining membership, declining coffers and declining representation in the state Legislature. And now we just lost the two things we could point to proudly.

Top National Guard Officer; Chief of Space Operations Test Positive for Covid

On Friday, the National Guard Bureau announced that Gen. Dan Hokanson, its chief, had tested positive for coronavirus last week (Politico). Politico writes, “Hokanson is the National Guard's highest-ranking officer and a member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. Hokanson had been in Europe over Thanksgiving week visiting deployed troops in Poland and Kosovo, where he was tested at each stop, according to a DoD official who asked not to be named to discuss a sensitive issue. He tested positive upon returning to Washington, the official added.” A military official also announced on Friday that Chief of Space Operations Gen. Jay Raymond had tested positive for coronavirus. As a result of the test, Gen. Raymond did not attend the Reagan National Defense Forum this weekend and was replaced by Vice Chief of Space Operations Gen. David Thompson.

U.S. Economy

Omicron Variant Hits Small Cap Stocks 

News of the emergence of the Omicron variant has hit small-cap stocks, stocks for companies with a total market capitalization between $300 million to $2 billion, particularly hard, according to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ). The Journal writes, “The Russell 2000 benchmark has dropped 7.4% since Thanksgiving, when the fast-spreading new variant made headlines. Last week, the index fell into a correction, declining more than 10% from its November record. The S&P 500 large-cap index, by comparison, has shed 3.5% since the variant news.” The impact has hit a range of sectors with declines in financial, technology, healthcare and energy stocks. The Journal notes that “the  biggest losers in the Russell 2000 over that period include several pharmaceutical and biotechnology stocks, which often experience big swings as a result of clinical data or regulatory decisions, as well as software and retail stocks that fell after earnings reports.” Small-cap stocks tend to be more vulnerable to shifts in investor mood. Tim Skiendzielewski, a portfolio manager at the Aberdeen U.S. Small Cap Equity Fund, told the Journal, “Generally speaking, small-caps aren’t as well equipped to weather the storm as large-caps.”

2021 Was a Good Year for the Car Business, Unless You’re a Supplier

The Wall Street Journal reports that 2021 was a good year for the car business despite the pandemic, except for suppliers who were hard hit by pandemic related supply chain disruptions (WSJ). The Journal spoke with Peter Anthony, the head of a Chicago-area auto supplier, who said that suppliers like him are struggling as dealers make profits. He told the Journal, “We’re being hit from all sides,” adding, ‘How are suppliers going to offset these cost increases we’ve experienced without getting price relief from [the car companies]?” The Journal writes, “The biggest rub, however, is his company is losing out on the auto industry’s frothy pricing, he added. With tight inventories, car buyers are paying record sums for new vehicles, and that has led both auto makers and dealerships to post healthy earnings this year, despite disruptions caused by the computer-chip shortage.” Fixed contracts have made it difficult for suppliers to renegotiate their terms to account for the disruptions. 

Bonus Read: “Retreat From Globalization Adds to Inflation Risks, (WSJ).

Analysis & Arguments

Jamelle Bouie writes on the news that Trump tested positive before the first debate (NYT).

Ross Douthat casts a critical eye on the Biden administration’s Covid response (NYT).

Katherine J. Wu writes that amid reports of lower efficacy, the public may be missing the value of the J&J vaccine’s durability (Atlantic).

Benjamin Wallace-Wells examines the record of pandemic travel restrictions (New Yorker).

Stephanie DeGooyer and Srinivas Murthy write on the dangers of vaccine nationalism (Dissent).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

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