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June 23, 2022 - Brief Issue 340
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
Study Renews Debate Over China’s “Zero Covid” Policy (Health & Science)
NYC Begins Vaccinating Children Under 5 (Health & Science)
Antiviral Drugs Prescribed Inequitably, Says U.S. Study (Health & Science)
Moderna’s New Shot Works Against Omicron Subvariants (Health & Science)
British Inflation Hits 40-Year High, Workers Strike for More Pay (Around the World)
South Africa Repeals Mask-Wearing Restrictions, Entry Requirements (Around the World)
Watchdog: IRS Backlog Up From Last Year (U.S. Government & Politics)
DeSantis Has Not Sought Trump’s Endorsement (U.S. Government & Politics)
Fed Chair: Recession a Possibility, Fed Will Keep Raising Rates Until Hits 2% Inflation Target (U.S. Economy)
China to US Shipping Rates Dodge Inflation’s Impact (U.S. Economy)
Some Companies Rescind Job Offers, Signal More Hiring Caution (U.S. Economy)
Broadway To End Mask Mandate on July 1 (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 86,636,381 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 1,014,835 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 592,269,252 vaccine doses, with 78.1% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 66.8% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 89.5% have received at least one dose, and 76.8% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 47.2% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a first booster shot. 25.3% of Americans aged 50 or older have received a second booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 541,441,499 cases of coronavirus, with 6,324,412 deaths.
Study Renews Debate Over China’s “Zero Covid” Policy
A new study by the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention published on Saturday has renewed the debate over the effectiveness of the country’s zero-covid strategy. That study found that just 22 of more than 33,000 patients hospitalized after testing positive for Omicron developed severe illness. All of the patients who did develop more serious illness were over 60 years old and had underlying medical conditions (NYT). Under China’s “Zero Covid” policy, a single positive test can send an entire apartment complex into lockdown and all residents within a certain proximity must test daily for three days. The constant lockdowns–often with very little notice–and testing have severely hampered the Chinese economy and fueled resentment among some of the public. One of the study’s 19 authors, Zhang Wenhong, an infectious-disease specialist and one of China’s leading voices on Covid-19, said the study “provides evidence for refining Covid-19 public health strategies” to avoid overwhelming medical resources. The study stopped short of making specific recommendations.
NYC Begins Vaccinating Children Under 5
On Wednesday families in New York City were able to vaccinate their young children against Covid-19. Many New York City parents have been eagerly awaiting the approval of vaccines for the youngest age group in the city that was once the epicenter of the pandemic in the U.S. The city opened 10 vaccine hubs to serve children six months and older. Health Commission Dr. Vasan said, “We’ve been waiting two and a half years for this moment to protect our little ones,” and continued, saying, “This is a great day. It’s a great day for our city. It’s a great day for our country.” Dr. Ashwin and Mayor Eric Adams toured a vaccination site at Times Square on Wednesday that had 150 appointments booked that day (NYT).
Antiviral Drugs Prescribed Inequitably, Says U.S. Study
A study by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that Americans living in the most socially and economically disadvantaged communities were half as likely as those in wealthier areas to be prescribed antiviral medications for Covid-19. The study examined more than a million prescriptions for the new antiviral drugs, Lagevrio and Paxlovid, between Dec. 2021 and May 2022 and analyzed them by zip code. “In areas of high social vulnerability, prescriptions were dispensed at half the rate as in ZIP codes classified as medium or low-social vulnerability,” reports the New York Times, adding, “The disparity occurred despite the fact that about half the sites capable of dispensing the drugs were located in the disadvantaged areas, which are home to roughly half the nation’s residents.”
Moderna’s New Shot Works Against Omicron Subvariants
A new shot by Moderna targeting both Omicron and the original virus strain produced a strong immune response against the Omicron subvaraints BA.4 and BA.5, the company said Wednesday. In a study, participants who received the tweaked shot showed neutralizing antibodies against BA.4 and BA.5 one month after receiving the dose, regardless of whether they were previously infected. The company said it plans to seek regulatory approval for an updated booster shot in August (WSJ).
Bonus Read: “Britain Declares National Incident After Poliovirus Found in London,” (NYT).
Around the World
British Inflation Hits 40-Year High, Workers Strike for More Pay
Prices in Britain have climbed 9.1% in May compared to the previous year and the inflation rate was pushed to a 40-year high on Wednesday, according to the nation’s statistics agency on Wednesday. The jump was fueled by rising food prices in particular (NYT). In May, bread, cereal, and meat prices were 10% higher than a year ago, due to pandemic-related supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine. The news comes amid a week of disruptions to transit across the U.K. as transport workers strike for pay increases in line with the cost of living (WSJ). The government is bracing for the potential for a summer of strikes in a variety of industries, including teachers and National Health Service workers who have already threatened to walk off the job. Next week, criminal defense barristers will strike over funding cuts to legal aid.
South Africa Repeals Mask-Wearing Restrictions, Entry Requirements
South Africa has repealed restrictions related to Covid-19, including mask-wearing in indoor public spaces, limits on the size of gatherings, and entry requirements at its borders (Reuters). Up to this point, international travelers arriving in South Africa had to show a vaccination certificate or negative test. South Africa has experienced four severe Covid-19 waves but the latest surge in infections in April and May was not as severe as officials expected and hospitalizations and deaths did not rise as dramatically as in past surges.
U.S. Government & Politics
Watchdog: IRS Backlog Up From Last Year
On Wednesday a government watchdog, the National Tax Advocate, reported that the IRS’s backlog has widened since last year (Politico, WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “The backlog of unprocessed paper tax returns was 21.3 million at the end of May, up 1.3 million from a year earlier, according to Erin Collins, the national taxpayer advocate, who runs an independent taxpayer-service operation within the IRS. Agency officials have said they aimed to return the backlog to a ‘healthy’ level in the next six months.” Politico notes, “The report contradicts the Biden administration’s repeated claims that it is making significant progress in catching up on the filings. The administration announced on Tuesday that the IRS is poised to complete work this week on a subset of returns filed by individual taxpayers that don’t require special attention from the agency.” Despite the increase, Collins credited the IRS’ efforts, stating, “The IRS’s leadership and its employees deserve credit for successfully processing such a high percentage of returns despite an extraordinarily complicated tax code, notoriously antiquated technology” and pointing to “inadequate staffing, lingering challenges resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.”
DeSantis Has Not Sought Trump’s Endorsement
In a possible signal that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis may be looking to actively challenge Trump for the 2024 Republican Presidential nomination, DeSantis has not sought Trump’s endorsement as he runs to keep his governorship (Politico). Politico reports, “According to four people connected to the governor and former president, DeSantis has not asked Trump for a formal endorsement and isn’t planning to. It’s a clear sign that DeSantis, who more than four years ago was a little-known congressman from northeast Florida, has risen high in the GOP stratosphere.” As we have covered in prior briefs, DeSantis is widely considered a potential challenge to Trump in part due to his aggressive opposition to pandemic restrictions in Florida. However, DeSantis likely also just doesn’t need Trump’s endorsement to win. Politico writes, “An endorsement from Trump, however, would not likely change DeSantis’ frontrunner status in Florida among his Florida supporters. Polls have consistently shown him leading his Democratic rivals.”
U.S. Economy
Fed Chair: Recession a Possibility, Fed Will Keep Raising Rates Until Hits 2% Inflation Target
On Wednesday while testifying before the Senate Banking Committee, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell cautioned that a recession is one possible result of the Fed’s effort to rein in inflation (NYT, WSJ). Powell stated, “We’re not trying to provoke, and don’t think that we will need to provoke, a recession,” but called a recession, “certainly a possibility.” Even so, Powell emphasized, “we do think it’s absolutely essential that we restore price stability, really for the benefit of the labor market, as much as anything else.” The Wall Street Journal writes, “His remarks underscore the challenge facing the central bank as it raises interest rates at the most rapid clip since the 1980s to slow the economy and cool inflation. Rising fuel costs and supply-chain disruptions from Russia’s war against Ukraine have sent prices up in recent months. Those pressures have added to already-high inflation as demand surged last year from the reopening of the economy and aggressive government stimulus. The central bank is seeking to engineer a so-called soft landing by cooling the economy’s growth enough to lower inflation, but without causing a downturn.” Powell also testified, “The events of the last few months around the world have made it more difficult for us to achieve what we want.” Powell also said the Fed would keep raising rates until it is on track to hit its 2% inflation target. The Journal notes, “Officials raised interest rates by 0.75 percentage point last week, the largest increase since 1994, and Mr. Powell and several colleagues have signaled that another such increase could be warranted at their next meeting, July 26-27.” Bonus Read: “Why the Fed Is Risking a Recession,” (NYT).
China to US Shipping Rates Dodge Inflation’s Impact
The Wall Street Journal reports that shipping rates for goods going from China to the U.S. have largely avoided the impact of recent inflation (WSJ). The Journal reports, “Freight rates from China to the U.S. West Coast stood at $9,585 a box last week, down 34% from the start of the year and 50% from a year earlier, according to the Freightos Baltic Index. Those rates, however, are more than four times higher than in June 2020, and industry observers expect them to remain above prepandemic levels through at least 2023.” The decline may be related to the resolution of some pandemic-related supply disruptions.
Some Companies Rescind Job Offers, Signal More Hiring Caution
Even as the job market continues to be tight with near-record pandemic-driven numbers of job openings and low unemployment, the Wall Street Journal reports that some companies are beginning to rescind offers and signal a more cautious approach to hiring (WSJ). The Journal reports, “Businesses in several different industries are rescinding job offers they made just a few months ago, in a sign the tightest labor market in decades may be showing cracks. Companies including Twitter Inc. , real-estate brokerage Redfin Corp. , and cryptocurrency exchange Coinbase Global Inc. have rescinded offers in recent weeks. Employers in other pockets of the economy are pulling away offers too, including some in insurance, retail marketing, consulting and recruiting services. At the same time, many companies have signaled a more cautious hiring approach. Netflix Inc. , Peloton Interactive Inc., Carvana Co. and others announced layoffs. Technology giants such as Facebook parent Meta Platforms Inc and Uber Technologies warned they will dial back hiring plans.” The change may be a sign that the labor market is moving away from the tight pandemic conditions, but some analysts warned that it is easy to overestimate the importance of the changes. Brian Kropp, vice president of human-resources research for advisory firm Gartner, gave the Journal one such caution, noting, “going from zero to a fairly small amount seems like a big increase.”
Bonus Read: “Regulator Moves to Lower Credit-Card Late Fees That Can Rise With Inflation,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
Broadway To End Mask Mandate on July 1
On Tuesday, the Broadway League announced that Broadway theaters will no longer mandate that attendees wear masks, beginning on July 1 (NYT). The league will instead implement a policy named “mask optional,” and re-evaluate conditions monthly. The president of the league stated, “Our theater owners have been watching the protocols, watching admissions to hospitals, watching as we have no issues across the country where tours are mostly not masked, and they decided it was time to try,” adding, “This is not an easy decision — there are more people that want masks off than on, but plenty still want them on — and we’re encouraging people that have any concerns to wear their masks.” The New York Times writes, “Broadway had maintained fairly restrictive audience policies since theaters reopened last summer. The theaters required patrons to show proof of vaccination until April 30, and have continued to require patrons to wear masks except while eating and drinking.” The Times also notes that the decisions on Broadway have a wider impact, as many theaters take their lead from the policies implemented on Broadway.
Analysis & Arguments
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