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March 23, 2022 - Brief Issue 305

The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.

Today’s brief marks the second anniversary of the launch of the Coronavirus Daily Brief. Over the past two years, we have published more than 300 daily briefs that included more than a million words of news and analysis.

When we began writing the brief, 471 people had died of Covid in the United States, and there was not a vaccine. Two years later, slightly over three quarters of Americans have received at least one dose of vaccine, and the U.S. death toll has surpassed 970,000 people, according to Johns Hopkins’ tracking.

Globally, more than six million people have died over the course of the pandemic, which has reshaped economies, disrupted supply chains, and fueled inflation.

Record numbers of people have quit their jobs. Some because they are burnt out, others because they sense an opportunity to find better jobs or pay, and some – mostly women – are casualties of a child care crisis made significantly worse by the pandemic.

We have seen new variants and waves most recently, Delta and Omicron. Protests have come and gone, and come again. A new administration took office, and released a national Covid strategy. Through it all, the brief has brought the latest news on a daily basis.

We’re grateful for the support of our readers and will continue to bring you the most critical information related to the pandemic, as we enter our third year.

Please consider making a donation to support our ongoing analysis of the most important news and headlines surrounding Covid-19.​

Top Headlines

Most New U.S. Cases are Now BA.2 (Health & Science)

U.S. Could Face Covid Test Shortage Again; Vaccination Rate Stalled (Health & Science)

Covid Infection Linked to Likelihood of Type 2 Diabetes (Health & Science)

WHO: Rising Cases in Europe Due to Relaxed Restrictions (Around the World)

Third Shot of Sinovac Prevents Death, Says Hong Kong Data (Around the World)

Pfizer Will Send Covid Pills to Poorer Countries (Around the World)

White House: U.S. Lacks Funds to Provide a 4th Dose of Vaccine for All; Administration to Stop Reimbursing Hospitals for Covid Care for the Uninsured (U.S. Government & Politics)

Student Loan Freeze Has Saved Borrowers Almost $200 Billion (U.S. Government & Politics)

NYC to End School Mask Mandate for Children Under Five (U.S. Government & Politics)

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki Tests Positive for Covid; Hillary Clinton Tests Positive (U.S. Government & Politics)

People’s Convoy to Continue This Week (U.S. Government & Politics)

Home Sales Fell in February (U.S. Economy)

Study Finds that Alcohol-Related Deaths Rose in the Pandemic’s First Year (U.S. Society)

Art Industry Diminished Twice As Much As the US Economy (U.S. Society)

Health & Science

There have been 79,803,670 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 973,266 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 558,649,472 vaccine doses, with 76.8% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 65.4% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 88.2% have received at least one dose, and 75.3% are fully vaccinated (U.S. CDC). 44.6% of fully vaccinated Americans have received a booster shot. Worldwide, there have been 474,209,152 cases of coronavirus, with 6,099,870 deaths.

Most New U.S. Cases are Now BA.2 

As much as 70% of new infections in many parts of the United States are now caused by the BA.2 subvariant of the coronavirus, according to an estimate from the genomics company Helix (WaPo). The BA.2 strain has caused a wave of infections across Europe that officials believe will soon be replicated in the U.S. as the pandemic moves into its third year. In two or three weeks, “everything in the Northeast is going to be BA.2,” predicted Jeremy Luban, a virologist at the University of Massachusetts Medical School.

U.S. Could Face Covid Test Shortage Again; Vaccination Rate Stalled

If Congress fails to authorize new funds and cases do surge, as many health officials predict, the U.S. could see a shortage of at-home coronavirus tests. The Biden administration is estimating that the testing market will be stable through the summer but a decline in demand is already causing some manufacturers to decrease production (Politico).  “If we get to a point where companies really are turning off lines or laying off people — are not making investments in the Covid test market — and we have another surge, then we will not be ready to go,” Tom Inglesby, White House senior adviser for Covid response, told Politico. “We will be in a situation that is potentially much worse than what we had with Omicron.” The number of molecular tests shipped per week has fallen by more than 50% over the last month in the U.S. 

Another concern for health officials is the stalling vaccination rate in the U.S. As of Monday, about a quarter of eligible adults are still not fully vaccinated, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. The vaccination campaign has been hampered by vaccine skepticism and partisan politics in addition to misinformation. And even with the threat of another surge fueled by the BA.2 subvariant, many people still don’t want to get vaccinated. “It is very much slow gains from here on out,” said Rupali Limaye, an associate scientist who studies vaccine messaging at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (NYT).

Covid Infection Linked to Likelihood of Type 2 Diabetes 

People who had Covid-19 were at greater risk of developing Type 2 diabetes within one year compared to those who were not infected, according to a review of patient records that was published online in the Lancet Diabetes & Endocrinology journal on Monday. Researchers reviewed the records of 181,000 Department of Veterans Affairs patients diagnosed with Covid-19 between March 1, 2020 and Sep. 30, 2021 and compared that data to the records of more than 4.1 million VA patients who were not infected during the same time frame and another 4.28 million who received care in 2018 and 2019 (CNN). 

While the study cannot prove cause and effect, it did show a strong association between Covid-19 and Type 2 diabetes. Researchers found that people who had Covid-19 were 46% more likely to develop Type 2 diabetes for the first time or be prescribed medication to control blood sugar levels. “Taken together,” the researchers wrote, “current evidence suggests that diabetes is a facet of the multifaceted long covid syndrome and that post-acute care strategies of people with covid-19 should include identification and management of diabetes.” “For the broader public, if you’ve had covid-19, you need to pay attention to your blood sugar,” said Ziyad Al-Aly, chief of research and development at VA St. Louis Health Care System, who led the review (WaPo).

Around the World

WHO: Rising Cases in Europe Due to Relaxed Restrictions 

New coronavirus cases are increasing in 18 European countries, including Britain, France, Germany, and Italy because authorities relaxed restrictions too soon, Dr. Hans Klue, the World Health Organization’s regional director for Europe said on Tuesday. The increase has been linked to the spread of the highly transmissible BA.2 subvariant of the virus. Instead of taking a gradual approach, Dr. Kluge said, the countries “are lifting those restrictions brutally, from too much to too few” (NYT). Even though Dr. Kluge noted that mortality from Covid-19 was still declining in the 18 countries, he said the virus remains a deadly threat across the region. 

Third Shot of Sinovac Prevents Death, Says Hong Kong Data

A new study from scientists at the University of Hong Kong found that three doses of China’s Sinovac vaccine had a clear benefit over just two doses in preventing severe illness or death in those over 60 (WSJ). The study analyzed hospitalized patients during the city’s Omicron wave, which is ongoing, and showed that three shots of Sinovac were 98% effective in preventing the worst outcomes while two shots were 72.2% effective against severe illness and 77.4% effective against death. Hong Kong currently offers two vaccines to residents, one from Pfizer-BioNTech and one from China’s Sinovac Biotech Ltd. The study also found that for recipients of only two doses of a vaccine, the shot made by BioNTech was 89.6% and 92.3% protective against severe illness and death in the same age group. “If you are triple jabbed with either vaccine, you are very, very, very well protected,” said Gabriel Leung, the dean of the University of Hong Kong’s Faculty of Medicine.

Pfizer Will Send Covid Pills to Poorer Countries

On Tuesday Pfizer announced that it has agreed to sell up to four million courses of its Covid-19 pills for use in 95 lower-income countries and that the first supplies could be expected as soon as next month. The agreement applies to all countries classified as low- or lower-middle-income and some upper-middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere (NYT). Pfizer said it could make 120 million courses of the pill, called Paxlovid, this year but wealthy countries have already claimed much of that supply (CNBC). Paxlovid has been found to be highly effective in preventing severe disease in patients when given early on in an infection. It is in pill form, can be taken at home, and can be stored at room temperature – all big benefits for lower-income countries where logistics could be troublesome. Bonus Read: “Why Covax, the best hope for vaccinating the world, was doomed to fall short,” (WaPo).

U.S. Government & Politics

White House: U.S. Lacks Funds to Provide a 4th Dose of Vaccine for All; Administration to Stop Reimbursing Hospitals for Covid Care for the Uninsured

On Monday, administration officials warned that the United States lacks the funds to provide fourth doses of vaccines for everyone if the FDA approves a second round of boosters (WaPo, CNN). Speaking on a podcast, White House coronavirus coordinator Jeff Zients stated, “Right now, we don’t have enough money for fourth doses, if they’re called for.” The comments come as the U.S. has exhausted the funding allocated for coronavirus response with congressional efforts to provide further funding stalled. The Washington Post writes, “Federal officials have secured enough doses to cover a fourth shot for Americans age 65 and older as well as the initial regimen for children under age 5, should regulators determine those shots are necessary, said three officials, speaking on the condition of anonymity to detail funding decisions. But the officials say they cannot place advance orders for additional vaccine doses for those in other age groups, unless lawmakers pass a stalled $15 billion funding package.” 

On Tuesday, the Biden administration also began the process of ending reimbursements for hospitals to cover Covid care for the uninsured, meaning that uninsured people will begin receiving bills (WSJ). The administration stated that it is ending the program because it lacks funds to cover it. The Wall Street Journal writes, “The provider relief fund, which was created to help hospitals and community health centers seeing decreased revenue or increased expenses because of the pandemic, was launched with more than $100 billion in 2020, and later legislation added about $78 billion. All of the money in the provider relief fund has been allocated, though it has not all been paid out, according to an official with the Department of Health and Human Services’ Health Resources and Services Administration.”

Student Loan Freeze Has Saved Borrowers Almost $200 Billion

The Wall Street Journal reports that the moratorium on student loan payments saved borrowers almost $200 billion (WSJ). As we have covered in prior briefs, Biden is considering whether to extend the moratorium, and lenders are lobbying for the administration to refuse a further extension. The Journal writes, “Around 37 million federal student-loan borrowers were spared $195 billion in loan payments since the government froze their payments at the onset of the pandemic, and many of them are likely to struggle with their debts when the moratorium is lifted, according to a report released Tuesday by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.”

NYC to End School Mask Mandate for Children Under Five

On Tuesday, New York City Mayor Eric Adams announced that the city will end its school mask mandate for children under five, beginning on April 4 (NYT). The city ended its mandate for older schoolchildren earlier in March.  Adams, who had faced pressure on the issue in the lead up to the policy change, stated, “We want to see our babies’ faces.” The New York Times writes, “The mask mandate for children under 5 applies to the city’s 4-K and 3-K preschool classrooms, which serve about 95,000 students, and other preschool programs contracted by the city’s Department of Education.” 

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki Tests Positive for Covid; Hillary Clinton Tests Positive

On Tuesday, White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki announced that she tested positive for Covid (CNN, Politico, NYT). Psaki had been set to travel with President Biden to Poland. Psaki stated, “Today, in preparation for travel to Europe, I took a PCR test this morning. That test came back positive, which means I will be adhering to CDC guidance and no longer be traveling on the President's trip to Europe.” She added, “I had two socially-distanced meetings with the President yesterday, and he is not considered a close contact as defined by CDC guidance. I am sharing the news of my positive test today out of an abundance of transparency. The President tested negative today via PCR test.” Psaki, who is vaccinated, had previously tested positive before in October 2021 prior to another foreign trip. As we covered in a prior brief, the White House testing regime has been a recent subject of questions at White House press conferences.

Also on Tuesday former Secretary of State and Democratic Presidential contender Hillary Clinton announced that she had tested positive for Covid (Politico). Clinton tweeted, “I’ve got some mild cold symptoms but am feeling fine.” She added a call for people to get vaccinated, writing, “I’m more grateful than ever for the protection vaccines can provide against serious illness. Please get vaccinated and boosted if you haven’t already!.” She also noted that her husband, former President Bill Clinton had tested negative.

People’s Convoy to Continue This Week

The so-called “People’s Convoy” protest in and around D.C. will continue this week (abc7). Today, Wednesday will mark the 28th day of the protest. Meanwhile the protest’s website says that it has collected almost $2 million over the course of the protest. As we covered in yesterday’s brief, concerns have increased that the protest is moving beyond circling the beltway and towards activity inside the city itself.

U.S. Economy

Home Sales Fell in February

According to data released by the National Association of Realtors on Friday, home sales fell in February (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “Sales of previously owned homes declined in February as rising mortgage-interest rates and a shortage of homes for sale made it difficult for buyers to compete. Existing-home sales fell 7.2% in February from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.02 million, the National Association of Realtors said Friday. February sales fell 2.4% from a year earlier.” Despite the fall in sales, demand remains high. In the resultant tight housing market, prices have risen, with the Journal writing, “The median existing-home price rose 15% in February from a year earlier, NAR said, to $357,300.”

Bonus Read: “How Governments Can Avoid a Debt Crisis as Rates Rise,” (WSJ).

U.S. Society

Study Finds that Alcohol-Related Deaths Rose in the Pandemic’s First Year

A new study by the National Institute on Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism, and published in the Journal of the American Medical Association found that alcohol-related deaths dramatically increased during the first year of the pandemic. These deaths have been an indirect byproduct of the toll Covid has caused. Studies have shown that the stress of the pandemic—disrupted routines and the dissolution of support networks as well as educational losses and lack of socialization—caused the American population to drink more. The New York Times reports that this study “found that the number of alcohol-related deaths, including from liver disease and accidents, soared, rising to 99,017 in 2020, up from 78,927 the previous year — an increase of 25 percent in the number of deaths in one year.” There was a much smaller increase of 5% between 2018 and 2019.

Art Industry Diminished Twice As Much As the US Economy

According to a report released by the National Endowment for the Arts and the Bureau of Economic Analysis between 2019 and 2020, the arts industry “shriveled at nearly twice the rate of the country’s economy…as the Covid-19 crisis shuttered theaters, clubs, cinemas, and museums across the country,” writes Artforum. The performing arts, followed by the oil market and air transportation, was the primary victim of Covid closure policies. Unemployment within the arts industry also rose immensely—up 6.6% in 2020 from the previous year and a total of 604,000 jobs were lost. With the accessibility of vaccines and the recent fall of variant surges, the arts industry is slowly making its way back. Although it hasn’t hit 2019 levels, revenue did double in the comparable 2021 period.

Analysis & Arguments

John Nichols explores how the rich got richer during the pandemic (Nation).

Tom Frieden, former CDC Director, writes the next Covid wave is likely already on its way (NYT).

Keren Landman writes on an upcoming surge and pandemic fatigue (Vox).

Chas Danner emphasizes that the pandemic is not over (NYMag).

Leana Wen argues that a new wave may be coming but most Americans don’t need to worry (WaPo).

Nate Hochman argues that most Americans are moving on from the pandemic while progressive elites are not (National Review).

 Readers can send in tips, critiques, questions, and suggestions to coronavirusbrief@newamerica.org.

The Brief is edited by David Sterman and Emily Schneider with Senior Editor Peter Bergen.

Read previous briefs here and stream and subscribe to our weekly podcast here.

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