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October 4, 2021 - Brief Issue 245
The Coronavirus Daily Brief is a daily news and analysis roundup edited by New America’s International Security Program and Arizona State University.
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Top Headlines
U.S. Sees Falling Cases, But Death Toll Surpasses 700,000 (Health & Science)
Johnson and Johnson to Seek FDA Authorization for Booster Shot (Health & Science)
Fauci Urges Vaccination Even With New Pill Showing Promise (Health & Science)
Studies Find Virus is Getting Better at Airborne Transmission (Health & Science)
Coronavirus Cases Surge in New England Despite High Vaccination Rates; Alaskan Doctors Rationing Care (Health & Science)
Israel Requires Boosters to Enter Indoor Venues (Around the World)
Melbourne Has World’s Longest Lockdown (Around the World)
Singapore Hits Record Number of Cases, Despite High Vaccination Rate (Around the World)
Uganda Faces Logistical Problems with Vaccination Campaign (Around the World)
New Zealand’s Outbreak Spreads (Around the World)
Post-Pandemic, Asian Voting Bloc Coheres (U.S. Government & Politics)
Supreme Court Returns for an In-Person, Masked Term of Controversial Cases (U.S. Government & Politics)
Mortgage Payments At Record Unaffordability for Post-2008 Recession Era (U.S. Economy)
WSJ: Covid-Related Hospital Costs Vary by Tens of Thousands of Dollars (U.S. Society)
Health & Science
There have been 43,683,764 coronavirus cases in the United States, and 701,178 people have died (Johns Hopkins). The United States has administered 395,934,825 vaccine doses, with 64.8% of all Americans having received at least one vaccine dose and 55.9% fully vaccinated. Among adults aged 18 or older 77.6% have received at least one dose, and 67.2% are fully vaccinated. 2.9% of Americans have received a booster shot (U.S. CDC). Worldwide, there have been 234,977,037 confirmed cases of coronavirus, with 4,803,145 deaths.
U.S. Sees Falling Cases, But Death Toll Surpasses 700,000
The summer surge in coronavirus cases in the United States seems to be declining, with new infections on track to slip below 100,000 this week. But the total number of deaths from Covid-19 continues to climb and surpassed 700,000 deaths on Friday (CNN). That number is roughly the equivalent to the population of the District of Columbia (WaPo). In some states, such as Tennessee, Alabama, Mississippi, and the Carolinas, the summer surge spiked sharply before plunging in recent weeks. Epidemiologists say this pattern is similar to those experienced by the United Kingdom and India, where the Delta variant also ran rampant. It suggests that the virus rapidly spreads among pockets of unvaccinated people before hitting a wall. “In any epidemic wave, you have to have susceptibles,” said David Rubin, who monitors coronavirus trends as director of PolicyLab at the Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia. “Between increasing vaccination and the sheer number of people infected, they likely reached a level where they don’t have any susceptibles left, so the virus is being blocked and it’s one of those disappearing moments.” The United States has more Covid-19 deaths than any other country in the world.
Johnson and Johnson to Seek FDA Authorization for Booster Shot
On Monday the New York Times reported that Johnson & Johnson is planning to seek authorization from U.S. federal regulators for a booster shot of its coronavirus vaccine. Johnson & Johnson is the last of the three federally authorized vaccine providers to call for booster shots. More than 15 million Americans have received the J&J shot and now, amidst mounting evidence that older adults and those in high-risk groups need more protection, officials are worried that the one-shot J&J vaccine does not provide enough protection against severe Covid-19. The Food and Drug Administration scheduled a meeting of its expert advisory committee for Oct. 15 to discuss granting emergency authorization of a booster. A recent study by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention found that J&J’s single-dose vaccine was only 71% effective against hospitalization from Covid, compared with 88% efficacy for the Pfizer vaccine and 93% for Moderna’s.
Fauci Urges Vaccination Even With New Pill Showing Promise
Dr. Anthony Fauci, the top advisor on the pandemic to President Biden, urged the 70 million Americans who are eligible for a vaccine to get one during interviews on Sunday morning (NYT). While Dr. Fauci was enthusiastic about the development of a new antiviral pill by pharmaceutical company Merck, he said vaccination is still the best way to prevent serious infection. Fauci described the new antiviral pill, which is able to cut the risk of hospitalization and death from the virus by half, as “extremely important.” Merck has said it will seek emergency authorization from the FDA for the pill, known as molnupiravir, as soon as possible. Fauci lamented the increasing number of deaths, saying “Many of those deaths were unavoidable but many, many are avoidable, were avoidable and will in the future be avoidable,” on CNN’s “State of the Union.”
Studies Find Virus is Getting Better at Airborne Transmission
The Alpha and Delta variants of the coronavirus are highly contagious and have infected more people than the original strain. Now, two new studies offer a possible explanation: the virus is evolving to be more efficient at spreading through the air (NYT). Scientists quickly realized that the original strain of the virus was good at spreading through small droplets in the air, called aerosols, that float over longer distances indoors. One of the new studies found that small aerosols traveled much longer distances than larger droplets and that the Alpha variant was more likely to cause new infections through those aerosols. The second study found that people who were infected with Alpha exhaled about 43 times more virus into tiny aerosols than those infected with older variants. “It really indicates that the virus is evolving to become more efficient at transmitting through the air,” said Linsey Marr, an expert in airborne viruses at Virginia Tech who was not involved in either study. “I wouldn’t be surprised if, with Delta, that factor were even higher.” Bonus Read: “Delta increases COVID-19 risks for pregnant women; Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine antibodies gone by 7 months for many,” (Reuters).
Coronavirus Cases Surge in New England Despite High Vaccination Rates; Alaskan Doctors Rationing Care
Hospitals across New England are experiencing full intensive care units and staff shortages as cases increase among unvaccinated individuals. Even though the five states with the highest percentage of fully vaccinated people are all in New England, there are still hundreds of thousands of people across the region who remain unvaccinated (AP). “I think it’s clearly frustrating for all of us,” said Michael Pieciak, the commissioner of the Vermont Department of Financial Regulation who monitors COVID-19 statistics for the state. “We want kids to be safe in school, we want parents not to have to worry about their child’s education and health.” The increase in cases is starting to effect care across the region. As the AP reports, the head of UMass Memorial Health, the largest health system in central Massachusetts, “said recently that regional hospitals were seeing nearly 20 times more COVID-19 patients than in June and there isn’t an ICU bed to spare. In Connecticut, the Legislature just extended the governor’s emergency powers to make it easier to cope with the latest wave of the pandemic. Case counts in Vermont, which has continually boasted about high vaccination and low hospitalization and death rates, are the highest during the pandemic. Hospitalizations are approaching the pandemic peak from last winter and September was Vermont’s second-deadliest month during the pandemic.”
On the other side of the country, Alaska is also experiencing a surge in cases and a shortage of ICU beds and other medical necessities, causing doctors in some hospitals to make incredibly difficult decisions about rationing care (NYT). The New York Times calls the outbreak in Alaska the nation’s worst, and writes, “testing supplies are depleted, patients are being treated in hallways and doctors are rationing oxygen. With emergency rooms overwhelmed, the governor has asked hundreds of medical workers to fly in from around the country to help.” Alaska’s remote location and the rural nature of many of its towns and villages only complicates matters. “When your hospitals are full, you can’t just put them into an ambulance and take them to another town,” Senator Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) said of Alaskan patients in a floor speech to Congress on Friday. She described her own recent trip to an emergency room in Fairbanks, where a loved one needed help for a non-Covid problem. She said they were told that critical care beds at that hospital were full and that they might have to fly to Seattle to get treatment. The crisis is extending beyond Anchorage to smaller cities. The Yukon-Kuskokwim Health Corporation in Bethel announced on Wednesday that it had turned to crisis standards of care, meaning doctors would have to decide who received critical treatment. “We are now in a position of making these difficult decisions on a daily basis,” the hospital’s chief of staff, Dr. Ellen Hodges, said. As of Saturday, Alaska had activated crisis standards of care for 20 healthcare facilities, including some in Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, Cordova, Dillingham, and Kotzebue.
Around the World
Bonus Read: “Covid-19 Vaccine Makers Say There Are Enough Doses for Everyone. Poor Countries Are Still Waiting for Shots.” (WSJ).
Israel Requires Boosters to Enter Indoor Venues
On Sunday Israel tightened its Covid Green Pass rules so that only those who have received a vaccine booster dose or recently recovered from a virus infection are allowed to enter indoor venues (NYT). The updated criteria mean that nearly 2 million people will lose their vaccination passport. Under the new guidelines, those who have received two vaccine doses and those who have recovered from Covid-19 will be issued passes that are valid for six months after the date of their vaccination or recovery. Only those who have received a booster shot will be eligible for a green pass (AP). Israel is the first country to make a booster shot a requirement for its digital vaccination passport; opponents of the green pass system said it is a form of forced vaccination.
Melbourne Has World’s Longest Lockdown
On Tuesday, Melbourne’s 246-day lockdown will become the world’s longest lockdown due to Covid-19. Victoria’s number of infections have dropped slightly, with 1,220 new cases of local infections reported on Sunday, down from 1,488 infections the previous day (Guardian). Victorian premier Daniel Andrews said that 51.9% of people over the age of 16 were fully vaccinated while 82.6% have at least one dose.
Singapore Hits Record Number of Cases, Despite High Vaccination Rate
Coronavirus infections in Singapore rose to new highs this past week, with 2,909 new infections reported on Friday -- the largest number of daily cases since the pandemic began (NYT). Ministry of Health officials urged residents to stay calm; over 98% of the new cases were mild or asymptomatic thanks in large part to the country’s robust vaccination campaign. Singapore has vaccinated 82% of its eligible population and thus reduced the number of cases that turn into severe illness.
Uganda Faces Logistical Problems with Vaccination Campaign
Uganda’s vaccination program has been plagued with logistical problems along with vaccine hesitancy among residents (AP). Uganda has received more than 2.2 million doses of Pfizer and Moderna vaccines from the United States and 985,000 AstraZeneca shots from France, Belgium, and Ireland. But the country’s central storage facility near the capital, Kampala, can only hold 5 million doses of the Pfizer vaccines; some rural areas aren’t equipped to handle either the Pfizer or Moderna shots at all because they lack the refrigeration capacity to store the vaccines. Only 348,000 people are fully vaccinated, according to official figures and only 37% of the countries’ 150,000 healthcare workers are fully vaccinated.
New Zealand’s Outbreak Spreads
New Zealand’s outbreak of the Delta variant of the coronavirus has spread beyond the largest city of Auckland and Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern put additional regions into lockdown on Sunday (Reuters). On Sunday there were 32 new cases of coronavirus in Auckland and two cases in the Waikato region south of Auckland. The government will decide today if Auckland’s 1.7 million residents will remain sealed off from the rest of the country. Ardern enacted a nationwide lockdown in mid-August in response to the Auckland outbreak, but the rest of the country has largely returned to normal life even as the city has remained in lockdown. "We are doing everything that we can to keep cases confined to Auckland, and managing them there," Ardern said.
U.S. Government & Politics
Post-Pandemic, Asian Voting Bloc Coheres
Politico reports that according to a new POLITICO/Morning Consult poll, in the wake of the pandemic, Asian Americans are increasingly cohering as a voting bloc (Politico). Politico writes, “The POLITICO/Morning Consult poll — one of the most extensive surveys across nearly 50 ethnic groups that make up the diaspora — shows that 2 in 10 adults are now more likely to identify with the broader 'AAPI’ label than they were pre-pandemic, a notable shift for a racial group that tends to be ‘nationality-first.’ This movement in identity, on the heels of a massive voter turnout jump from 2016 to 2020, is key to building electoral clout, experts say.” Christine Chen, executive director of APIAVote, a non-profit, told Politico, “We saw such a large growth of the AAPI electorate in 2020 — it's really going to be the next two elections that decide whether or not these voters become part of the base.” Politico points to various factors that may have driven the change including greater visibility amid Trump’s rhetoric blaming China for the pandemic and increasing anti-Asian hate crimes. The poll found that violence was a substantial concern for respondents. Politico writes, “Sixty-five percent of respondents said violence was a major threat during the pandemic. Sixty-two percent said discrimination was a major threat. Though the number dropped off for white supremacy, 50 percent of respondents still considered it a major threat.”
Supreme Court Returns for an In-Person, Masked Term of Controversial Cases
On Monday, the Supreme Court returns for its first in-person term since March 2020 (WSJ). The term will see a variety of adjustments to prevent the spread of Covid. The Wall Street Journal writes, “Like other workplaces returning to life after coronavirus-driven closings, things will be different. Only staff members, attorneys and accredited journalists may enter the courthouse, while the public for the first time can listen live through a link on the court’s website. Attorneys are directed to wear N-95 or KN-95 masks within the courtroom ‘except when presenting argument,’ but only those with negative Covid-19 tests are allowed in.” Covid has already had an impact on the court, with Justice Brett Kavanaugh having tested positive for Coronavirus on Thursday, despite having been vaccinated in January. He skipped a ceremony on Friday, and has said that he will call in for upcoming arguments. The term will see a range of controversial cases including as the Journal writes, “challenges to abortion rights, gun regulations and a secular public school system.”
In Contentious Interview, West Virginia Governor Defends Handling of Covid, Rejects Vaccine Mandates
On Sunday, West Virginia’s Republican Governor Jim Justice defended his record on the pandemic in a testy interview with CBS’s “Face the Nation” (Politico). Justice took exception to host Margaret Brennan’s portrayal of West Virginia as “in crisis due to the Delta variant,” saying, “We’re a long ways from being in crisis in West Virginia.” Politico writes, “In an interview that reflected the sharp debate accompanying just about every aspect of policy surrounding the pandemic, their disagreements continued through discussions of federal policies, vaccine rates and possible mandates for children. Justice repeatedly used the phrase 'for crying out loud' to express his exasperation with her.” During the interview Justice said there was “no chance” that West Virginia would mandate vaccination for children. Justice stated, “I truly believe that the mandates only divide us and only divide us more. From the standpoint of mandates, I don't believe in imposing upon our freedoms over and over and over.”
U.S. Economy
Bonus Read: “Inside United Airlines’ Decision to Mandate Coronavirus Vaccines,” (NYT).
Mortgage Payments At Record Unaffordability for Post-2008 Recession Era
Driven by surging home prices during the pandemic, mortgage payments are at their most unaffordable since the 2008 financial crisis (WSJ). The Wall Street Journal writes, “The median American household would need 32.1% of its income to cover mortgage payments on a median-priced home, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta. That is the most since November 2008, when the same outlays would eat up 34.2% of income.” This is the case despite income growth over the pandemic for many Americans and low interest rates, which usually help Americans afford mortgages. The high prices are particularly likely to hit first-time home buyers.
Fed Chairman Powell Expects Inflation to Reverse, But Says If Inflation Doesn’t Moderate, Federal Reserve Will Face “Difficult Trade-Off”
On Thursday, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell told lawmakers that if inflation doesn’t moderate the Federal Reserve will face a “difficult trade-off” regarding any decision of whether to raise interest rates to reduce inflation despite continuing labor market slack (WSJ). Powell stated, “Almost all of the time, inflation is low when unemployment is high, so interest rates work on both problems.” Powell noted that that is not the case now, but that the Federal Reserve continues to assess that the high inflation is temporary, believing it “is a function of supply-side bottlenecks over which we have no control.” Thus Powell argued that the inflation will eventually reduce, in which case, “we won’t ultimately face that difficult trade-off.”
Bonus Read: “Falling Unemployment Could Add to Worries About the U.S. Labor Market,” (WSJ).
U.S. Society
WSJ: Covid-Related Hospital Costs Vary by Tens of Thousands of Dollars
A Wall Street Journal analysis of pricing data reports that the cost of Covid-related treatments can vary by tens of thousands of dollars even within a single hospital (WSJ). The Journal writes, “One kind of patient, with a type of severe respiratory condition that is common among those admitted with Covid-19, is an example of the wide range. The rates for these patients usually spanned from less than $11,000 to more than $43,000, the analysis found, but some prices could be far higher, depending on the severity of the case.” The Journal points to variation within a single hospital, writing, “At NewYork-Presbyterian Weill Cornell Medical Center in New York, the cost for a severe-respiratory patient was around $55,182 if the person were insured by CVS Health Corp.’s Aetna, according to the hospital’s data. For UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s UnitedHealthcare, the hospital’s disclosed rate is $64,326, while the price listed in the hospital’s data for patients covered by Anthem Inc.’s Empire Blue Cross Blue Shield was $94,357.” As we have covered in previous briefs, for much of the pandemic, insurance companies fully covered Covid-related treatments, but they have recently begun to require patients to cost-share.
Bonus Read: “As students with long-haul covid return to school, many districts don’t fully know how to help, (WaPo).
Analysis & Arguments
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